NL100 FR: riverplay

can we value-shove this river?

villain seems to be a huge fish, but i only have like 15 hands on him, but he is running
58/21/3

we have TPTK in a semi-3-bet pot with the flush hitting the river. Question is: does he have a weaker ace or some other weak hand often enough so we can shove this?
how do you play the river here?

Submitted by : Royal_Rumble

PokerStars Game #20173363300: Hold'em No Limit ($0.50/$1.00) - 2008/09/05 17:44:48 ET
Table 'Hippo III' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: ninetynine79 ($10.90 in chips)
Seat 2: nobelone69 ($11.30 in chips)
Seat 3: zoe 005 ($30.10 in chips)
Seat 4: kshag ($57.25 in chips)
Seat 5: hongzhong ($40.40 in chips)
Seat 6: JPBak13 ($121.45 in chips)
Seat 7: Hero ($108.85 in chips)
Seat 8: trigand ($17.50 in chips)
Seat 9: fioro ($5 in chips)
nobelone69: posts small blind $0.50
zoe 005: posts big blind $1

Holecards
Dealt to Hero
kshag: folds
hongzhong: folds
JPBak13: raises $1 to $2
Hero : raises $6 to $8
trigand: folds
fioro: calls $5 and is all-in
ninetynine79: folds
nobelone69: folds
zoe 005: folds
JPBak13: calls $6

Flop (Pot : $22.50)

   
JPBak13: checks
Hero : bets $17
JPBak13: calls $17

Turn (Pot : $56.50)

   
JPBak13: checks
Hero : bets $45
JPBak13: calls $45

River (Pot : $146.50)

   
JPBak13: checks

note: we have about $40 left by the river.

bet?

i don't see him checking a flush to you, and he probably raises two pairs/set before river..

his hand looks really like a weak Ax

i would assume you are good here 50 % + when called, so it def. seems like an EV+ spot to valuebet the last piece out of the fish.

Easy Vbet shove vs a fish imo. I''m pretty sure you have the best hand, or he would have put his money in already. He prolly has 1 pair and is gonna call you often enough.

not putting in your last 40 would be awful

you were going to call if he was going to shove anyway, just bet...

that logic only applies if he is first to act imo, not when he is behind.

he bets here b/c he is ahead, not because he would call a shove....