I'll get used to these spots eventually. Until then, I'll have to deal with feeling retarded every time this happens. I never expect HU donkaments to require >30bb play when anything is at stake. @_@
Stats: 50/10 weak tight mf.
Started the match instalimping the button...
Long, drawn out read / justification of what I'm having trouble reasoning is not a spew-shove. Typed it up for something else.
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My Reads/thought Process for this hand:
-His stats are very weak-tight, like 50/10, really more of a caller than a raiser. -I'm certain he's slightly tilting despite the match having gone on for under 50 hands. I've basically ran good and pulled off a pair of good mediumsized bluffs, just running him over before herocalling with top pair when he instapotted rivering a runner runner flush draw. That hand was maybe 5-6 before this one, and the stacks have basically evened up.
-I've 3bet multiple times in the match mostly from getting good cards. This is like my 3rd time with TT.
-I think he's less likely to have super premium hands like QQ+,AK because he minraised pf. This is an incomplete read / obv uncomfirmed, but it was what I felt was true at the time. All of his "honest" pf raises have been mid-high PPs, suited broadways (at least the ones he's shown down), and the minraises have been weird marginal connector, broadway-rag type hands. Of course, when he min-4bets, I have no idea what to think.
I'm sad to say I have no clue what is optimal here.
On one hand:
I think against his range, a shove here could be bad because I believe I have a massive edge against him postflop and to take a marginal flip against some spastic-played PP, AJ+ range where he might be weighted towards KK/AA if I can give him credit for that.
Yet:
That same 22+,AJ+ range I have 60% equity against. And it's entirely possible his range is wider than this. As mentioned above with the tilting, it's entirely plausible he cracked a few hands ago and wants to start shoving 50bb stacks around with KTo.
And the hand:
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Submitted by : SemPeR Full Tilt Poker Game #7838540218: $10 + $0.75 Heads Up Shootout (59599002), Table 1 - 25/50 - No Limit Hold'em - 16:26:35 ET - 2008/08/28
Seat 1: pasully (2,630)
Seat 2: Hero (3,370)
pasully posts the small blind of 25
Hero posts the big blind of 50
The button is in seat #1
Holecards Dealt to Hero 
pasully raises to 100
Hero raises to 330
pasully raises to 560
Hero |