turn decision with set

Submitted by : traktor

Seat 4: matfyzak $249.90 in chips
Seat 5: Worm311 $200 in chips
Seat 6: pimpnecro $210.65 in chips
pimpnecro: posts small blind $1
ronaldo500: posts big blind $2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to matfyzak
Danymite76: folds
mäcke37: folds
matfyzak : raises $6 to $8
Worm311: calls $8
pimpnecro: folds
ronaldo500: folds
*** FLOP ***
matfyzak : bets $14
Worm311: calls $14
*** TURN ***
matfyzak : bets $30
Worm311: raises $68 to $98
matfyzak

I thought for a while before betting out 30 on turn, cause I don´t think I can ever check. He raised quickly...

i'd fold, i think sometimes it can be 22, but other options are ahead of you. he is 25/15 ( even if a small sample ) so i exclude K6/K4/K2/53

Against an unknown I think I jam here, he doesnt need to be bluffing or vbeting worse that often for it to be profitable imo.

i don't see why you bet into this and think what to do after he R you(this is what u want right?) have a plan when u do something man because now it's impossible without history to make the right dessision
I chec/call the turn and revaluate river

I would def reraise him. I think most of the time against an unknown ur ahead. People to often asume that someone has a flushdraw because 2 of the same suit show up on the flop. and I hardly think he has KK and 66 would prolly reraise you on the flop so you dont get a free card(he prolly would fear u have 2 hearts since people always think that)

Dunno how many flushes are in his range cause he will probably raise the flop with a lot of nut flush draw or 67hh type hands, and dunno exactly how many suited hands are in his range, it's possible that there are many more than i listed here, but also some could probably be exluded as he probably raises flop with them. so this is just a very quick and rough estimation, without taking into account any bluffing at all:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

704 games 0.005 secs 140,800 games/sec

Board: Kh 6s 2h 4h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 32.813% 32.81% 00.00% 231 0.00 { 4d4s }
Hand 1: 67.188% 67.19% 00.00% 473 0.00 { 66, 22, AhJh, AhTh, Ah9h, QhJh, QhTh, JhTh, Th9h, 9h8h, 8h7h, 7h6h }


Even without any bluffs, our equity is pretty good, so I think folding is criminal unless he really is that nitty and predictable that he never ever bluffs and never gets it in with worse than 22 here. By the way checking turn is real bad, turn is definitely a bet, with his aggression factor he may just check back with a lot of Kx hands, but certainly call 2, if not 3 barrels with those hands. Also there is the element of protection in our bet, doesn't allow him to take a free card with like 88 with 1 heart or something which actually has decent equity vs us. The only question is bet/3bet AI or bet/fold, and you need a stellar read to bet/fold here considering our equity is pretty decent even when beat (unless he has exactly 66 or KK) and we're ahead a lot (vs most people) so just shove it in.