100nl 2p vs weird line

villain didnt come off as too strong a player, min3betting AK few rounds earlier. his line up to the river it wouldnt surprise me at all if he has a draw. how sure can i be he stumbled upon something better..

Submitted by : piratematerial

PokerStars Game #17373360535: Hold'em No Limit ($0.50/$1.00) - 2008/05/12 - 06:53:40 (ET)
Table 'Caecilia' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: Dufman79 ($107.50 in chips)
Seat 2: AndyWaldo ($138.80 in chips)
Seat 3: pokerhaasje ($125.50 in chips)
Seat 4: badbeatbaker ($28.40 in chips)
Seat 5: turtLe82 ($109.35 in chips)
Seat 6: Effenberg06 ($14 in chips)
Seat 7: Korikki ($99.50 in chips)
Seat 8: ncboiler ($88.70 in chips)
Seat 9: Buddler ($37.65 in chips)
Effenberg06: posts small blind $0.50
Korikki: posts big blind $1

Holecards
Dealt to pokerhaasje
ncboiler: folds
ncboiler leaves the table
Buddler: calls $1
Dufman79: folds
AndyWaldo: calls $1
pokerhaasje : raises $5 to $6
thomas41on1 joins the table at seat #8
badbeatbaker: folds
turtLe82: folds
Effenberg06: folds
Korikki: folds
Buddler: folds
AndyWaldo: calls $5

Flop (Pot : $14.50)

   
AndyWaldo: bets $5
pokerhaasje : raises $12 to $17
AndyWaldo: calls $12

Turn (Pot : $48.50)

   
AndyWaldo: bets $6
pokerhaasje : raises $36 to $42
AndyWaldo: calls $36

River (Pot : $132.50)

   
AndyWaldo: bets $52

the only draw you beat is a non-acehighflushdraw as JT got there and you split vs any gutshotdraw he mightve had on the flop
i'd expect to be beat here most of the time though (mainly 55/KT+ would worry me), not sure if youve got odds to call vs his range :S

im probably going to flat on the flop
as played i think i would call because the pot is too big and his line is too weird. he left you ~$8 which is odd, odd hand in general.

I really hate calling here. He bet small on flop/turn, then all of a sudden decided to inflate the pot on the river after having his small bets raised on both previous streets. If he's a donk then it looks so transparent that he's doing this with a K minimum. Ez fold imo.

this has got to be kx like 80% of the time. in fact i think its exactly K9 of diamonds 100% of the time.

I snap and dont worry too much if he has a K or w/e , i like raising the donk bets on all streets and by the river these guys can have any2 tbh.

Your raising 36 into 54 on the turn. I don't think 2/3rds pot is enough on a board like this, most of his holdings have a lot of outs so I'd go for more value and nearly pot the turn. Your actually giving k10/kj a good price if you he stacks you on most rivers. I would raise to 48 or 52. I actually think bet sizing leaks like this can be major.

As played I probably call the river. I think you see an A here and split a lot.

i'd flat flop instead of raising and fold river as played

fold river this is an obvious value bet imo

On May 12 2008 20:04 tarath wrote: Your raising 36 into 54 on the turn. I don't think 2/3rds pot is enough on a board like this, most of his holdings have a lot of outs so I'd go for more value and nearly pot the turn. Your actually giving k10/kj a good price if you he stacks you on most rivers. I would raise to 48 or 52. I actually think bet sizing leaks like this can be major. As played I probably call the river. I think you see an A here and split a lot.

thanks everyone for the comments. thought i could learn something from this hand. on the turn i was under the assumption he had a lot of weak draws in his range and was greedy to get value so didnt raise too big(i like your advice now). but since im such a calling station maybe i should protect myself better... on the river i actually put him high% on a flushdraw with a K but had no idea which one. kind of spite called and then had mixed feelings of happyness (about my read) and angryness being pretty sure it was a wrong call. i wasnt sure whether i have to learn to lay this down but from your comments i know i should and i agree.

anwyway in case you were wondering. it was a Kc4c