Any value in this?

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My image at this point is probably pretty standard and straight forward. Haven't done anything of note really, playing about 33/25/3 or so but pretty passive and straightforward post flop.

There's probably more value in making it $1,500. A shove like that makes it much more likely you have a lock hand imo as you're not trying to "save" any $ when your bluff gets called.

Hm yea I never even considered a smaller raise. Might be good, but 1500 is not much less than his stack, which is about ~2.1k before any river action

In that case I'd usually minraise.

while i dont really believe that 2 way bets exist, there is an interesting phenomena where he will fold out a hand you chop with a certain percentage of the time while obviously calling a lot, but will call sometimes with hands worse than yours, but certainly at a lower percentage, i would say something along the following could happen:

1. he might fold a ten 1 in 20 so sometimes you fold out the chop
2. he might call worse 1 in 5 so sometimes you get value from worse

and i wouldnt say he never has JT (he certainly shows up with it sometimes) but when combined with the 2 above it becomes profitable to raise

No value at all, just call.

What about the times where villain is gonna level himself because of missed diamond draws or possibility of AdXd hands turning their hand into a bluff?

He might even think that you'd just call with a ten here so you could only shove with JT or bluff. I would always raise here. Well played imo. Minraise looks too strong and won't get called by worse here.

I like this with the right image.

actually i like this in general nh

On May 13 2008 00:26 Twisted wrote: What about the times where villain is gonna level himself because of missed diamond draws or possibility of AdXd hands turning their hand into a bluff? He might even think that you'd just call with a ten here so you could only shove with JT or bluff. I would always raise here. Well played imo. Minraise looks too strong and won't get called by worse here.

True, it obviously confused him what with this: "skier_5: wth"
He did think for like 3 seconds and call with Td9d but he may have just done the same with a smaller straight for all i know

And why wouldn't we shove when he never has JT :|

shoving can never be bad if he never has it lol, second nuts ship it in. If anything, if he folds a set or something he doesn't get to see our hand!

We can never have JT, he can have it. Its a stupid move.

On May 11 2008 08:54 Daut wrote: 1. he might fold a ten 1 in 20 so sometimes you fold out the chop 2. he might call worse 1 in 5 so sometimes you get value from worse and i wouldnt say he never has JT (he certainly shows up with it sometimes) but when combined with the 2 above it becomes profitable to raise

perfect daut - also make sure to adjust the reraise size from all in too a non-all in based on who you face and his emotions, there is some value to be gained there, dont go braindead!

And you're all fucking morons...

First --> This guy is a pretty good player...
Second --> Guy leads into 2 people on a horrible board to bluff and checks turn on this board --> He has something v strong and its not a set. ATdd, A6dd are possible. JTdd is a very small possibility in truth, but he could decide to get tricky once in a while. TT is probably not in his range.
On river he bets --> he will definitely check 2 pair here, protecting with a check from a T sometimes.
I don't really see him bluffing river all that often (or at all for that matter), but I dont see him vbetting less than a ten as well.
And while the chance of him having JT is very low, there is at least some chance that he has it. There is like absolutely zero chance that we have it though (im pretty sure Midian will never check it behind or not raise flop for that matter)..


If there is 1% chance of him havig JT, our push is wrong, seeing as were not getting called by worse and not getting a fold from a split ever.
Actually, if theres 1/1000 chance of him having JT, our push is wrong.

What if there's 1/10 000 chance of him having JT? Is that ok then?

Prob not. It does lose like 18c a hand to a call!

I think the times he calls with a set or a 5 or something is higher than the times he has JT.

=[

against a different opponent i'd shove but vs this nit it's better to flat call

he's not betting out that river with a five or a set, lol

100% with rhaegar

Even if he is firing with a 5 or a T, hes never calling without a T and never folding a T. Sure, if it was some random idiot and especially if there was little left, shove.. Otherwise its pointless.

I think the good thing about the push is that a nit might often fold a Ten there...

Imo it really depends on how sure you can be about him not having JT there. If the likelyhood of it is sick small and there is a decent he folds a T / calls with weaker, then it is good obv.

no value in a push

At first I really really liked this play, but the more im looking at it the more I'm starting to hate it. Basically the range of hands he bets the river is pretty thin in this spot imo, so him bluff catching a worse hand is nearly impossible unless he's turning a marginal made hand into a bluff on the river and deciding to be a hero. Plus the other thing is that you can never have JT here, and he can, so he looks you up with a ten almost always. Flat calling is better in this spot

God I hate agreeing with a nit like doomer

On May 13 2008 16:05 Rhaegar wrote: And you're all fucking morons... First --> This guy is a pretty good player... Second --> Guy leads into 2 people on a horrible board to bluff and checks turn on this board --> He has something v strong and its not a set. ATdd, A6dd are possible. JTdd is a very small possibility in truth, but he could decide to get tricky once in a while. TT is probably not in his range. On river he bets --> he will definitely check 2 pair here, protecting with a check from a T sometimes. I don't really see him bluffing river all that often (or at all for that matter), but I dont see him vbetting less than a ten as well. And while the chance of him having JT is very low, there is at least some chance that he has it. There is like absolutely zero chance that we have it though (im pretty sure Midian will never check it behind or not raise flop for that matter).. If there is 1% chance of him havig JT, our push is wrong, seeing as were not getting called by worse and not getting a fold from a split ever. Actually, if theres 1/1000 chance of him having JT, our push is wrong.

like a) people never make mistakes
b) good players never get curious and look you up based on image
c) people dont valuebet thin
d) people dont turn hands into bluffs and then turn them into a value call because he thinks you are rebluffing
e) he doesnt ever make a mistake and fold out a chop

come on dude. people dont play perfect all the time. raising has value if the % he has JT is very low

and id like to point out that i dont think raise or call are clearly better than the other. just sort of playing devils advocate because i see pros and cons to each

i raise him my life! surely he folds to that.

On May 14 2008 12:22 JonnyCosMo wrote: God I hate agreeing with a nit like doomer

daisy

Thats fine, but I think your assigning a much higher value to almost irrelevant things.

a) people never make mistakes --> They don't bet call worse on this board for 150bbs, knowing they have plenty of Tx in their range. No they dont. EVER.
b) good players never get curious and look you up based on image In spots, where its hard for either player to have a nut hand.. Sure. In this hand its obviously an EV- spot to bluff as he is pretty much repping the nuts and will have it often.
c) people dont valuebet thin --> And then fold to the shove, especially on a 4str board to a big bet..
d) people dont turn hands into bluffs and then turn them into a value call because he thinks you are rebluffing... WTF? Seriously?
e) he doesnt ever make a mistake and fold out a chop No, he doesnt. EVER.

None of those points really matter. If I saw this guy on mad tilt, that would be a valid point.

On May 16 2008 12:22 Rhaegar wrote: Thats fine, but I think your assigning a much higher value to almost irrelevant things. a) people never make mistakes --> They don't bet call worse on this board for 150bbs, knowing they have plenty of Tx in their range. No they dont. EVER. b) good players never get curious and look you up based on image In spots, where its hard for either player to have a nut hand.. Sure. In this hand its obviously an EV- spot to bluff as he is pretty much repping the nuts and will have it often. c) people dont valuebet thin --> And then fold to the shove, especially on a 4str board to a big bet.. d) people dont turn hands into bluffs and then turn them into a value call because he thinks you are rebluffing... WTF? Seriously? e) he doesnt ever make a mistake and fold out a chop No, he doesnt. EVER. None of those points really matter. If I saw this guy on mad tilt, that would be a valid point.

This.

Wtf is wrong with this forum

what? i didnt understand cosmo's post

On May 14 2008 21:30 n0rthf4ce wrote: i raise him my life! surely he folds to that.

wtf i would snapcall

your life's not that great

ok let me try and make a really good serious post and put down my thoughts...

From what I know of skier from playing with him and from what I know of you based on your reputation, neither of you EVER has J10 here after the turn goes check/check. He won't ever be checking J10dd on the turn here because the best line here for him, as far as stack sizes go and as you are both very aggressive players, is to bet and induce a bluffraise from you with the ace falling. Checking with the intention of checkraising is a much worse line because it gets less money from bluffs, and also allows you to check behind with a huge range of hands as the ace is more or less a scary card. If he bets and you have A9 or a set you are raise/calling or shoving anyways.

As such, shoving the river is a very artful move. Sure, in terms of logic and EV it probably doesn't make much sense, and if he shows us J10 we feel stupid (although this never happens ). There are huge advantages to this move though. The first thing he will do is underestimate our abilities in logic and therefore at poker in general. This leads to several things, including making huge mistakes in the future by calling off lighter on the river, or simply just making us harder to play because we can do unpredictable things such as shoving the river here. He can never say about our range, "oh, this guy can never have X here because hes incapable". In my mind, this is far more important, and its ok to sacrifice EV and look like a monkey sometimes.

i think what most likely happened is that he bank/folded to your shove.

to sum it up, I thinnk both Rhaegar and n0rthf4ace made very good points. To me it's clear that in a vaccum calling is best (by a very small margin). Having in mind image considerations both options are viable (it all depends to what image you want to have ; what image you are comfortable with). If your known to call in spots like this everytime, you can use this to make thin +ev river bluffs, if your known to always raise you can use this to value bet thin on the river.

its like, if I have nitty image, I will never raise in this spot, cause it's likely to be called, and I dont want villain to see that i am cappable of doing this with a 10 ( would make my future river bluffs a little harder to succeed), but if I have monkey image and i just call .... .. Its all about abusing your own image.....

with midian's image its a clear raise .... and I think flop is a fold vs described vilain

ohh.. and DAUT is always right... I just miss the good old days when he was posting advice to every topic.

I agree with peachy that he never has JT here, I felt like I was freerolling, and also I would much rather gain the "metagame" benefits from shoving here and him seeing it or going "wtf" and then folding than the "benefits" i get from just calling.

In the actual hand he said "wth" clicked timebank then called with Td9d after 3~ seconds of thinking. I don't think he EVER EVER folds a chop cause i can NEVER EVER have JT, however I do think OCCASIONALLY you get looked up by some smaller straight that had a flush draw on the flop like A5d cause he knows i never have JT and probably doesn't think I'm capable of raising a T here on the river cause logically it makes little sense as Rhaegar has pointed out. Or maybe you think he doesn't bet ANYTHING but a Ten? He doesn't value bet a 5 on the river? I dunno I'm happy with my raise even now but I think it's pretty meh either way.

think about what you guys are saying


1. YOU NEVER HAVE JT
2. YOU DONT THINK ITS A GOOD IDEA TO RAISE A TEN ON THE RIVER
3. HES NEVER CALLING WORSE


LOL AT YOUR LOGIC

I have no idea who you are berating with that post Ryan lol.

kathy daut for burning my toast

but seriously heres the REAL issue:


1. if he has JT enough its bad to raise. i think some of you are underestimating how often he is showing up with JT and that we too show up with it sometimes, but very infrequently

2. the logic being used by some doesnt make any sense. The following 3 things do not coexist:
a. we never have JT
b. raising a ten on the river is a bad idea
c. hes never calling with worse
The reason they cant coexist is because if we never have JT and raising a ten on the river is a bad idea then he should suspect us to be bluffing a decent % of the time when we raise the river.

3. if the % of the time he has JT is sufficiently low enough we will get enough calls by worse hands to justify our raise with a hand a lot of you dont think we should be raising. That is if he does indeed NEVER have JT this is an auto raise.

however look at my #1, i think he has it, its your job to decide how often in the moment. i wont begin to guess %'s of his range because i havent played with skier in a while and i dont know the flow between you two, thats your job. this is really a question nobody can answer except you and him.

and i probably shouldnt be giving this away but i think never checking JT in your spot on the turn is a mistake and you should add it to your repertoire to better balance your ranges of both hands before the river action and hands you are raising the river with.

my whole point is that our logic doesn't have to be sound.

"2. the logic being used by some doesnt make any sense. The following 3 things do not coexist:
a. we never have JT
b. raising a ten on the river is a bad idea
c. hes never calling with worse
The reason they cant coexist is because if we never have JT and raising a ten on the river is a bad idea then he should suspect us to be bluffing a decent % of the time when we raise the river."

I seriously think you're leveling me now, or have suffered a head injury in the recent past.

-->> If C is true --> B is true; You say that if B is true, then C is false. So if C is true, then C is false. Good work, genius! <<---

Any reasons for Skier to call us with worse/fold split on river are based on pure speculation and worthless leveling, not having anything to do with correct strategy. And I don't see any metagame reason to actually push there too. Actually I'd like to see his hand if he was bluffing, mine would be face up if I push anyway.

"There are huge advantages to this move though. The first thing he will do is underestimate our abilities in logic and therefore at poker in general." VERY TRUE

muffins, anyone? fresh out of the oven!

to further clarify my post, i believe there are 3 possible outcomes to our shove.

a) he instafolds air (something like KJdd)
b) he tank/calls 10x because he doesn't believe our 1 hand range, and once he sees that we shove 10-9 he thinks we are stupid/bad/spewy and all that other good stuff.
c) he tank/folds 10x because he puts us on J10 and proceeds to give us much more credit for being tricky

then theres the option of him actually having J10 that...doesn't exist .

PS muffins are cold

On May 18 2008 00:05 n0rthf4ce wrote: to further clarify my post, i believe there are 3 possible outcomes to our shove. a) he instafolds air (something like KJdd) b) he tank/calls 10x because he doesn't believe our 1 hand range, and once he sees that we shove 10-9 he thinks we are stupid/bad/spewy and all that other good stuff. c) he tank/folds 10x because he puts us on J10 and proceeds to give us much more credit for being tricky then theres the option of him actually having J10 that...doesn't exist . PS muffins are cold

so.... that means this is a clear flat call.

On May 18 2008 00:32 JonnyCosMo wrote: Show nested quote + On May 18 2008 00:05 n0rthf4ce wrote: to further clarify my post, i believe there are 3 possible outcomes to our shove. a) he instafolds air (something like KJdd) b) he tank/calls 10x because he doesn't believe our 1 hand range, and once he sees that we shove 10-9 he thinks we are stupid/bad/spewy and all that other good stuff. c) he tank/folds 10x because he puts us on J10 and proceeds to give us much more credit for being tricky then theres the option of him actually having J10 that...doesn't exist . PS muffins are cold so.... that means this is a clear flat call.

These point that n0rth and Daut are making all add up to the end result that it becomes much more difficult to play on a hand-to-hand basis with you because you, in the eyes of a good thinking player, are capable of doing much more, hence are less predictable, hence you become a meta-nightmare and the result of that is usually moneyprinting. You're basically risking a small amount of EV by shoving into a rare j10 (and imo villain in this wont really be playing j10 like this very often) in order to reap a possible slight EV gain in this particular spot, as well as a larger EV gain later. If you don't think about balancing your range in spots like this, there of course will be no reason for a thinking player to ever look you up in marginal spots.

/rant ARE YOU GUYS ALL LEVELING ME, CAUSE I DON'T BELIEVE YOU CAN BE THIS STUPID AND WIN MONEY. /endrant

Our opponent will ALWAYS call Tx here and will NEVER call with worse. Metagame here is completely irrelevant. If you want to balance a pushing range with JT sometimes.. since you have JT like 1 in 50 to a Tx hand, balanced would be to flat Tx 47 times, push Tx 3 times and push JT. Whatever...

i am saying these CANNOT all happen
a. we never have JT
b. raising with a ten is BAD
c. hes never calling worse

do you really not see the problem saying these 3 things? if we NEVER HAVE JACK TEN, and raising with a ten is bad when we raise what does he put us on? AIRBALL. if hes putting us on airball when we raise he is calling worse.

and OBVIOUSLY ~C -> C THAT IS BECAUSE IT IS A LOGICAL FALLACY.

jesus maybe i shouldnt assume people have any understanding of logic at all. i guess i should just assume my opponents are all idiots who make mistakes. OH WAIT A MINUTE THAT MEANS HE MIGHT CALL WITH WORSE OR FOLD A TEN

LOLDOUCWUTIDIDTHERE

MINDFUCKINGTHETHREAD101.COM

sick leveling

I really hope Daut is just leveling me and hasnt suddenly turned into an idiot.

Never having JT and never pushing Tx is a part of our strategy, because its plain mathematically wrong for our opponent to call with worse and to fold a split. If you really think that our opponent will suddenly start calling us down with worse, because he "knows" were not pushing Tx you're out of your mind.

I think everyone would agree that both the chance he has JT here or calls with worse than a ten are non-zero probabilities even if they are very low. So u just have to decide if

(avg value from getting worse to call) + (avg value from bluffing off a split) + (metagame value)

is greater than (losses from losing to JT at showdown) or not.

It seems like people are trying to make absolute arguments instead of just guessing where the numbers lie.

On May 18 2008 17:33 NMcNasty wrote: I think everyone would agree that both the chance he has JT here or calls with worse than a ten are non-zero probabilities even if they are very low. So u just have to decide if (avg value from getting worse to call) + (avg value from bluffing off a split) + (metagame value) is greater than (losses from losing to JT at showdown) or not. It seems like people are trying to make absolute arguments instead of just guessing where the numbers lie.

Really good post McNasty. Pretty interesting spot as well to post, fun hand =D.

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