Any value in this?

I think the good thing about the push is that a nit might often fold a Ten there...

Imo it really depends on how sure you can be about him not having JT there. If the likelyhood of it is sick small and there is a decent he folds a T / calls with weaker, then it is good obv.

no value in a push

At first I really really liked this play, but the more im looking at it the more I'm starting to hate it. Basically the range of hands he bets the river is pretty thin in this spot imo, so him bluff catching a worse hand is nearly impossible unless he's turning a marginal made hand into a bluff on the river and deciding to be a hero. Plus the other thing is that you can never have JT here, and he can, so he looks you up with a ten almost always. Flat calling is better in this spot

God I hate agreeing with a nit like doomer

On May 13 2008 16:05 Rhaegar wrote: And you're all fucking morons... First --> This guy is a pretty good player... Second --> Guy leads into 2 people on a horrible board to bluff and checks turn on this board --> He has something v strong and its not a set. ATdd, A6dd are possible. JTdd is a very small possibility in truth, but he could decide to get tricky once in a while. TT is probably not in his range. On river he bets --> he will definitely check 2 pair here, protecting with a check from a T sometimes. I don't really see him bluffing river all that often (or at all for that matter), but I dont see him vbetting less than a ten as well. And while the chance of him having JT is very low, there is at least some chance that he has it. There is like absolutely zero chance that we have it though (im pretty sure Midian will never check it behind or not raise flop for that matter).. If there is 1% chance of him havig JT, our push is wrong, seeing as were not getting called by worse and not getting a fold from a split ever. Actually, if theres 1/1000 chance of him having JT, our push is wrong.

like a) people never make mistakes
b) good players never get curious and look you up based on image
c) people dont valuebet thin
d) people dont turn hands into bluffs and then turn them into a value call because he thinks you are rebluffing
e) he doesnt ever make a mistake and fold out a chop

come on dude. people dont play perfect all the time. raising has value if the % he has JT is very low

and id like to point out that i dont think raise or call are clearly better than the other. just sort of playing devils advocate because i see pros and cons to each

i raise him my life! surely he folds to that.

On May 14 2008 12:22 JonnyCosMo wrote: God I hate agreeing with a nit like doomer

daisy

Thats fine, but I think your assigning a much higher value to almost irrelevant things.

a) people never make mistakes --> They don't bet call worse on this board for 150bbs, knowing they have plenty of Tx in their range. No they dont. EVER.
b) good players never get curious and look you up based on image In spots, where its hard for either player to have a nut hand.. Sure. In this hand its obviously an EV- spot to bluff as he is pretty much repping the nuts and will have it often.
c) people dont valuebet thin --> And then fold to the shove, especially on a 4str board to a big bet..
d) people dont turn hands into bluffs and then turn them into a value call because he thinks you are rebluffing... WTF? Seriously?
e) he doesnt ever make a mistake and fold out a chop No, he doesnt. EVER.

None of those points really matter. If I saw this guy on mad tilt, that would be a valid point.

On May 16 2008 12:22 Rhaegar wrote: Thats fine, but I think your assigning a much higher value to almost irrelevant things. a) people never make mistakes --> They don't bet call worse on this board for 150bbs, knowing they have plenty of Tx in their range. No they dont. EVER. b) good players never get curious and look you up based on image In spots, where its hard for either player to have a nut hand.. Sure. In this hand its obviously an EV- spot to bluff as he is pretty much repping the nuts and will have it often. c) people dont valuebet thin --> And then fold to the shove, especially on a 4str board to a big bet.. d) people dont turn hands into bluffs and then turn them into a value call because he thinks you are rebluffing... WTF? Seriously? e) he doesnt ever make a mistake and fold out a chop No, he doesnt. EVER. None of those points really matter. If I saw this guy on mad tilt, that would be a valid point.

This.

Wtf is wrong with this forum

what? i didnt understand cosmo's post

On May 14 2008 21:30 n0rthf4ce wrote: i raise him my life! surely he folds to that.

wtf i would snapcall

your life's not that great

ok let me try and make a really good serious post and put down my thoughts...

From what I know of skier from playing with him and from what I know of you based on your reputation, neither of you EVER has J10 here after the turn goes check/check. He won't ever be checking J10dd on the turn here because the best line here for him, as far as stack sizes go and as you are both very aggressive players, is to bet and induce a bluffraise from you with the ace falling. Checking with the intention of checkraising is a much worse line because it gets less money from bluffs, and also allows you to check behind with a huge range of hands as the ace is more or less a scary card. If he bets and you have A9 or a set you are raise/calling or shoving anyways.

As such, shoving the river is a very artful move. Sure, in terms of logic and EV it probably doesn't make much sense, and if he shows us J10 we feel stupid (although this never happens ). There are huge advantages to this move though. The first thing he will do is underestimate our abilities in logic and therefore at poker in general. This leads to several things, including making huge mistakes in the future by calling off lighter on the river, or simply just making us harder to play because we can do unpredictable things such as shoving the river here. He can never say about our range, "oh, this guy can never have X here because hes incapable". In my mind, this is far more important, and its ok to sacrifice EV and look like a monkey sometimes.

i think what most likely happened is that he bank/folded to your shove.

to sum it up, I thinnk both Rhaegar and n0rthf4ace made very good points. To me it's clear that in a vaccum calling is best (by a very small margin). Having in mind image considerations both options are viable (it all depends to what image you want to have ; what image you are comfortable with). If your known to call in spots like this everytime, you can use this to make thin +ev river bluffs, if your known to always raise you can use this to value bet thin on the river.

its like, if I have nitty image, I will never raise in this spot, cause it's likely to be called, and I dont want villain to see that i am cappable of doing this with a 10 ( would make my future river bluffs a little harder to succeed), but if I have monkey image and i just call .... .. Its all about abusing your own image.....

with midian's image its a clear raise .... and I think flop is a fold vs described vilain

ohh.. and DAUT is always right... I just miss the good old days when he was posting advice to every topic.