Fantasy Football results

a living in year long fantasy seems absurd. i think having an ROI of roughly 20-40% makes sense long term, so 300k in buyins? yikes. seems like a lot and a shitload of run bad can happen. that said, a friend of a friend is possibly the best year long fantasy football player in the world and i think he plays around 150k of buyins and may have over a 100% ROI long term. For example, in the 1800 person NFFC contest we entered, he had i believe 12 teams in total and he finished in 2nd/4th/7th as well as some others that probably cashed for decent money. probably cashed for 40-50k overall on that ~4k of buyins.. obviously some run good with the players he chose working out in a few weeks time, but hes definitely great at it, hes done well year in year out.

as for daily stuff, you can definitely make a living on it. can put in way more volume with less work and can basically play it like HU cash or tournaments. you can enter HU lineups, 50/50s (say 100 people enter and the top 45 people double up), triple ups (100 people enter, 30 triple their buyin), 10xs, or GPPs (like a large tournament with a guaranteed prize pool and top heavy payouts like MTTs). feel like a top guy next year putting in lots of volume could expect to make a few hundred thousand grinding everything in multiple sports. i dont think im anywhere close to there yet, but maybe after a lot of work in the off season and perhaps some programs i could probably become one of the better NFL players. baseball seems like its close to solved and i dont know shit about basketball unfortunately because it sounds like theres a lot of edge

Since you like fantasy games, you should enter some of the Kountermove events they have for every UFC event. For UFC 168, there's multiple events, but the big one is a $10 buy-in with a $25k prize pool, $5k for 1st place: http://www.kountermove.com/join/18922...y-on-ufc-168-weidman-vs-silva-2-T-10/

On December 24 2013 02:27 PuertoRican wrote: Since you like fantasy games, you should enter some of the Kountermove events they have for every UFC event. For UFC 168, there's multiple events, but the big one is a $10 buy-in with a $25k prize pool, $5k for 1st place: http://www.kountermove.com/join/18922...y-on-ufc-168-weidman-vs-silva-2-T-10/

these prices are pretty lol. i am assuming you get points for how quickly they win?

On December 24 2013 02:30 Daut wrote: Show nested quote + On December 24 2013 02:27 PuertoRican wrote: Since you like fantasy games, you should enter some of the Kountermove events they have for every UFC event. For UFC 168, there's multiple events, but the big one is a $10 buy-in with a $25k prize pool, $5k for 1st place: http://www.kountermove.com/join/18922...y-on-ufc-168-weidman-vs-silva-2-T-10/ these prices are pretty lol. i am assuming you get points for how quickly they win?

The prices on the fighters is what makes things interesting, because you have to put a 5-person fight team together with 25,000 points. It's like you're putting together a team with limited funds, so you gotta be strategic.

You want to pick fighters who are finishers, attempt finishes, strike a lot, and are basically just "action" fighters. Picking someone like Jon Fitch would be terrible, since he's most likely to win by decision and doesn't strike that much. There's a FAQ page on that website that gives you a description of how the points work.

Example: I played Kountermove for UFC on FOX 9, and this was my result:

Urijah Faber (won): 97.5
Court McGee (lost): 53
Chad Mendes (won): 66.5
Demetrious Johnson (won): 106.5
Alptekin Ozkilic (won): 56.5

Even though Mendes won his fight, notice how little points he earned, while McGee lost his fight and he earned me a lot of points because he's so active on the feet. I ended up getting 39th place for that event, which earned me back my buy-in.

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Here's some old videos from their YouTube page:

+ Show Spoiler +

i mean there simply arent that many combinations of fighters someone can enter. 24 choose 5 is a pretty small number when considering some of them are great picks, some are awful like miesha tate and there are 2500 entries. im guessing there are lots of ties?

On December 24 2013 03:00 Daut wrote: i mean there simply arent that many combinations of fighters someone can enter. 24 choose 5 is a pretty small number when considering some of them are great picks, some are awful like miesha tate and there are 2500 entries. im guessing there are lots of ties?

You would think there are a lot of ties, but there's not many ties for 1st place. I often see 2 guys split 1st place, sometimes it's just 1 guy winning it. There's a lot of ties when you get out of the top 10 prize pool.

For example, the $25k Kountermove event pays the top 358 people, so you'll see a lot of ties outside of the top 10 winners in that one cuz there's gonna be like 2500 people participating in it. For the UFC on FOX 9 event I was in (there were multiple events), there was only 1 guy who got 1st place.

Overall, it's a lot harder than it seems to get 1st place, since you have to first go into it with a good understanding of the fighters, as well as getting lucky along the way. Sometimes you can pick a sure thing, and then that fighter doesn't show up to fight, like Chad Mendes in his most recent fight for example. Also, to even have a chance at winning a larger chunk of the prize pool, you have to get all 5 of your picks correctly, which is hard in itself. I've had a few events where I got 4 guys right, and I didn't get shit, while in some free roll events, I got 4 of the 5 guys right and I got enough money to buy into a larger event if I wanted to.

Lastly, there's free roll Kountermove events that are put on by MMA Mania, Bloody Elbow, and MMA Fighting. These are free to enter, and the prize pools range from $400 to $800. There's more fish in the free ones, because people enter them with the same mentality as how they enter free rolls in Poker; it's free to enter, so I'll just do the most random shit and hope it works.

very nice

there are very high stakes leagues that you could probably win and live for a year off of, but they are like $5k and $10k buy in leagues my buddy in NY knows about, but its all super rich hedge fund and PE guys.

congrats daut! i played one league, finished runner up last two years and this year, 14 teams, chopping championship. niners defense came up big last night to get me the win.

Fanduel Draftday Draftkings so far my favorite for single day or single week games. There is exponentially more money available to be won Since you can set one line up and enter it too 100 heads up 100 5man winner take alls and 100 3 man winner take alls plus the few big tournaments on each site. Fanduel is #1 for me though

Hey Daut,

Do you have any resources you'd recommend to someone who wants to get a better understanding of fantasy statistics? Not necessarily asking for your personal approach, but stuff that might help me understand why certain things are valued. Or should I just pick up an introductory stats textbook?

I'm a huge NBA fan, but only just started getting into fantasy this year. Feel completely out of my element and I really want to educate myself.

On December 25 2013 14:06 Sanai wrote: Hey Daut, Do you have any resources you'd recommend to someone who wants to get a better understanding of fantasy statistics? Not necessarily asking for your personal approach, but stuff that might help me understand why certain things are valued. Or should I just pick up an introductory stats textbook? I'm a huge NBA fan, but only just started getting into fantasy this year. Feel completely out of my element and I really want to educate myself.

what knida statistics are you looking for? there are tons of pay sites and lots of different metrics to value players. when i was starting out i tried to learn by listening to rotogrinders (http://rotogrinders.com/) podcasts and live shows, talk to friends who have been doing it longer, try to find good projections, and look at teams of guys who enter many lineups to piece together their thought processes. unfortunately i just dont know anything about NBA to do more than copy my friends lineups, but NFL i learned a lot through that process

This (daily fantasy) seems pretty interesting and I'll check it out. There seems to be an obscene amount of sites though. Would you recommend focusing on one (if so, which one(s)) or would it be better to bonus-whore them all/most? Also, what should someone look out for in terms of rake relative to stakes and site? Lastly, is there any rakeback that is essential sort of like Supernova? I have other questions in mind but I think I'd like to just check it out first.

On December 25 2013 17:26 hiems wrote: This (daily fantasy) seems pretty interesting and I'll check it out. There seems to be an obscene amount of sites though. Would you recommend focusing on one (if so, which one(s)) or would it be better to bonus-whore them all/most? Also, what should someone look out for in terms of rake relative to stakes and site? Lastly, is there any rakeback that is essential sort of like Supernova? I have other questions in mind but I think I'd like to just check it out first.

ive been playing mainly draftkings, but fanduel is the biggest. there are some others: starstreet, draftstreet, fanthrowdown, draftday, etc. im probably just gonna concentrate on a couple next year.

bonus whoring is ok, i think on draftkings you get about 40% of your rake paid back for the life of the bonus. the rake is somewhat high, basically the same as it is in MTTs. so youll get stuff like 10+1, 100+9, 200+15 etc. draftkings gives you back FPPs. i believe you get 4 FPPs for every dollar paid in entry fees, and you can turn in roughly 545 for a dollar, so its really small rakeback.

next year im probably going to play mostly DK/FD, but other sites are probably worth looking into for big promotional stuff

cool, thanks.

Thanks!

plz stop solving games

On December 25 2013 21:38 GoTuNk wrote: plz stop solving games

lol.

Daut, at any point did you find it difficult to maintain that many teams/leagues? Or who you needed to do what in which league? It seems like there would be a lot of room for mistakes/forgetting to set lineups etc for a league while juggling so much.

so my basic approach was on tuesday before waivers, go through the qb/wr/rb/te/def/K on each league, write down who im targetting for free agency at midnight and set whatever my waivers were. earlier in the season i made some mistakes with sometimes not looking at the waivers on certain positions because i was in a rush and i missed really great pickups (i.e. matt prater was dropped in a few leagues on his bye). but once i got more methodical it got easier.

then id just follow certain reporters like adam schefter on twitter, get my news and if i saw anything worthwhile id pick up or drop players during the week. then id just need to remember to set my lineups saturday night and sunday morning when the final injury reports came in. as long as you stay methodical about it, increasing the number of leagues doesnt lead to many mistakes.

one of the trickier aspects is in leagues with auction bidding for waiver wire players and no free agency. often in these leagues you want to carry backups in case someone gets injured in practice between games. a few times i got caught with my pants down and had to start someone really awful because i couldnt add someone sunday before the game when a probable player took a turn for the worse and didnt play. again just have to be careful

On December 25 2013 15:48 Daut wrote: Show nested quote + On December 25 2013 14:06 Sanai wrote: Hey Daut, Do you have any resources you'd recommend to someone who wants to get a better understanding of fantasy statistics? Not necessarily asking for your personal approach, but stuff that might help me understand why certain things are valued. Or should I just pick up an introductory stats textbook? I'm a huge NBA fan, but only just started getting into fantasy this year. Feel completely out of my element and I really want to educate myself. what knida statistics are you looking for? there are tons of pay sites and lots of different metrics to value players. when i was starting out i tried to learn by listening to rotogrinders (http://rotogrinders.com/) podcasts and live shows, talk to friends who have been doing it longer, try to find good projections, and look at teams of guys who enter many lineups to piece together their thought processes. unfortunately i just dont know anything about NBA to do more than copy my friends lineups, but NFL i learned a lot through that process

whatever metrics you use to value players for fantasy football, does that translate well to betting player props at regular sportsbooks, or is it a totally different thing?

sorry for bump

On March 24 2014 21:55 bigredhoss wrote: Show nested quote + On December 25 2013 15:48 Daut wrote:   On December 25 2013 14:06 Sanai wrote: Hey Daut, Do you have any resources you'd recommend to someone who wants to get a better understanding of fantasy statistics? Not necessarily asking for your personal approach, but stuff that might help me understand why certain things are valued. Or should I just pick up an introductory stats textbook? I'm a huge NBA fan, but only just started getting into fantasy this year. Feel completely out of my element and I really want to educate myself. what knida statistics are you looking for? there are tons of pay sites and lots of different metrics to value players. when i was starting out i tried to learn by listening to rotogrinders (http://rotogrinders.com/) podcasts and live shows, talk to friends who have been doing it longer, try to find good projections, and look at teams of guys who enter many lineups to piece together their thought processes. unfortunately i just dont know anything about NBA to do more than copy my friends lineups, but NFL i learned a lot through that process whatever metrics you use to value players for fantasy football, does that translate well to betting player props at regular sportsbooks, or is it a totally different thing? sorry for bump

im a better year long fantasy player than daily fantasy player. if you are a phenomenal daily fantasy player then its possible you can cap individual props well enough to beat the books. however, i kinda take the opposite approach. i compile some projections and include the sportsbook prop odds in my analysis so i personally wouldnt be able to use my fantasy knowledge to beat props but maybe some can.