river bluff combinatorics, 50nl

I am aware I am flooding the forum at the moment; the time I get to play is sporadic so I tend to play/learn/study in bursts. Wanted input on a river bluff and the numbers associated with it.

Submitted by : nootropics

***** Hand History for Game 11994981018 ***** Party
$50.00 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Thursday, August 09, 01:40:51 ET 2012
Table San Antonio Real Money
Seat 6 is the button
Seat 1: A1askaBear $114.20 USD
Seat 4: Benny.Li $63.15 USD
Seat 3: PlayWithPassion $54.92 USD
Seat 5: daddytone $50.86 USD
Seat 6: Hero $63.10 USD
Seat 2: singledk $20.02 USD
A1askaBear posts small blind [$0.25 USD].
singledk posts big blind [$0.50 USD].

Holecards
Dealt to Hero [ ]
PlayWithPassion raises [$1.50 USD]
Benny.Li folds
daddytone folds
Hero calls [$1.50 USD]
A1askaBear folds
singledk folds

Flop (Pot : $3.75)

   
PlayWithPassion bets [$3.00 USD]
Hero calls [$3.00 USD]

Turn (Pot : $9.75)

   
PlayWithPassion bets [$6.95 USD]
Hero calls [$6.95 USD]

River (Pot : $23.65)

   
PlayWithPassion bets [$15.00 USD]
Hero raises [$51.65 USD]

Your bluff makes no sense, id probably call you with an 8. I mean what are you repping? jacks don't make sense and if you had Kx why wouldn't you raise flop or turn.

Raise turn, shove river. Or check back river with that hand.


About what you said, hand combinations don't really trump logic. Your play looks like a draw that missed and decided to bluff or a draw that had Jx in it. So depending on how aggressive /bluffy you are your opponents decision/call is pretty easy.

First your line has to make sense, then you should consider the board texture and then hand combos. You are going to get called more often on paired boards.

And the math doesn't matter because your play is a logical failure.

Hell id call you with A high and be like... WTF sick value bet.

This hand seems to lack a plan past preflop. On the flop, I'd much prefer to raise this spot than float. A float with a turn bet costs the same as a raise, but you avoid simply facing a turn barrel on a blank and having to fold, which wastes your flop call and you wont be able to raise even on this dream turn cos you rep shit all. Also, his pocket pair range tends to just fold to the flop raise where it might c/c a turn bet putting you on a draw. On a side note I'd say it's a 100% flop raise if you held the As. The turn call is fine as long as you are going mad on almost all spade rivers, but right from the flop I think you charged yourself too much in relation to your chances of taking it away.

@daemonicus Thanks for that input; I am getting a handle on the math behind all this stuff but my logical applications in-game leave a lot to be desired as you've alluded to. My assumption was that he would never get to the river this way with many 8x hands to call me off that light so I think the range I have given him is probably close to the mark, but in terms of my line making sense relative to other value lines I'd take on this texture, raise turn/shove river seems to make a lot more sense.

@oly I didn't think I could rep enough hands that would raise flop here vs an UTG cbet; I think daemonicus' plan to raise turn makes a lot more sense in the context of what I would be doing with a value range.

raise turn shove river, youre not repping much here by raising river

i'm raising turn here about as close to 100% as you can get

as played

ugh

u cannot reasonably discount anything and how often do guys go on blast 3x vs a thinking opponent on this board texture

short answer

nobody good ever plays a set this way

and KJ is retarded

and u'll come across as good to everybody, if not now, then soon i think

On August 09 2012 04:37 nootropics wrote: @daemonicus Thanks for that input; I am getting a handle on the math behind all this stuff but my logical applications in-game leave a lot to be desired as you've alluded to. My assumption was that he would never get to the river this way with many 8x hands to call me off that light so I think the range I have given him is probably close to the mark, but in terms of my line making sense relative to other value lines I'd take on this texture, raise turn/shove river seems to make a lot more sense. @oly I didn't think I could rep enough hands that would raise flop here vs an UTG cbet; I think daemonicus' plan to raise turn makes a lot more sense in the context of what I would be doing with a value range.

So he never gets to the river with 8x, so your trying to bluff out top pair on a paired board by repping the very rare backdoor trips. I wouldn't suggest trying to bluff out top pair, especially with one bet.

I like your thinking nootropics - Try reraising the flop instead of flatting, run some math on his c-bet range vs the range he will bet/fold to a rearise - furthermore by reraisng the flop you can rep spades, A on turn is good, you also can make hearts like in the hand above. rerasising the flop is cheaper + you have a ton of immiediate fold equity + you can bluff turns more credibly (like a spade)

--- Nuked ---

i hate this particular line + the fact you shipped the brickest of all river imaginable. villain in hand if he's any good at hand reading will hero call you quite frequently here.

On August 09 2012 15:52 TalentedTom wrote: I like your thinking nootropics - Try reraising the flop instead of flatting, run some math on his c-bet range vs the range he will bet/fold to a rearise - furthermore by reraisng the flop you can rep spades, A on turn is good, you also can make hearts like in the hand above. rerasising the flop is cheaper + you have a ton of immiediate fold equity + you can bluff turns more credibly (like a spade)

Thanks. It's not relevant at 50nl I know, but how do I balance raising the flop here with the nut backdoor flushdraw if I'm also raising the nut flushdraw? Is it something simple like including sets and weaker draws (like open enders, or AsXx when a spade comes) in my turn raising range? Cause I feel like people catch on when people become habitual with the raise flop/bet/shove line and they will just go call/call on no spade runout, but when you get aggressive on turns things can get a lot more complex on rivers for villain (as well as the fact that they can go bet/call turn---chk/fold river with a lot of their own weakish draws and stuff).

On August 09 2012 15:52 TalentedTom wrote: I like your thinking nootropics - Try reraising the flop instead of flatting, run some math on his c-bet range vs the range he will bet/fold to a rearise

Pot on flop is 6.75 when he cbets 3, we make it 9 which needs to work 57% of the time.

If I assume villain cbets 100% of hands on this texture (all 17% of hands - 22+/76s+/A2s+/ATo+/KQo/all suited broadway), and continues only with flushdraws/8x/JJ+ or better than he continues with 54% of his opening range. If he dumps 8x and JJ then he folds 60% of the time.

If those numbers are right it seems like a flop raise is slightly profitable but that combined with the fact he will fold a ton of turns that the combined line is where we make our money?

Either that or we just make it 8 instead of 3 so it makes money on the flop

On August 09 2012 21:13 nootropics wrote: Show nested quote + On August 09 2012 15:52 TalentedTom wrote: I like your thinking nootropics - Try reraising the flop instead of flatting, run some math on his c-bet range vs the range he will bet/fold to a rearise - furthermore by reraisng the flop you can rep spades, A on turn is good, you also can make hearts like in the hand above. rerasising the flop is cheaper + you have a ton of immiediate fold equity + you can bluff turns more credibly (like a spade) Thanks. It's not relevant at 50nl I know, but how do I balance raising the flop here with the nut backdoor flushdraw if I'm also raising the nut flushdraw? Is it something simple like including sets and weaker draws (like open enders, or AsXx when a spade comes) in my turn raising range? Cause I feel like people catch on when people become habitual with the raise flop/bet/shove line and they will just go call/call on no spade runout, but when you get aggressive on turns things can get a lot more complex on rivers for villain (as well as the fact that they can go bet/call turn---chk/fold river with a lot of their own weakish draws and stuff).

You are overthinking this - you dont have to worry about balance in this case.

imo this is actually great flop to bluff raise even vs std utg range with our specific hand, we have decent equity vs his calling range and great implied odds - cos hes not gonna put us on BDFD or BD straight when it hits.. cool hand & discussion anyways, I've learned something..

i almost never float AQ after flatting it pre. most of the reasons have to do with the reasons im flatting it pre and not 3betting.

this flop i would 100% raise or fold. floating is like, okay as long as you are gonna raise a turn like this, but personally i rather take the initiative right away, raise this flop, barrel this turn, and jam spade and heart and 10 rivers.

u just rep nothing but draws that missed when you jam the river cuz all your made hands would 100% raise flop or turn since the board is so draw heavy.

well i guess you rep AJss. that's 1 combo.