$1 PLO set BTN vs BB

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InsideMan United Kingdom. Apr 27 2012 15:34. Posts 159

Submitted by : InsideMan

Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

Hero BTN : $267.80
SB: $198.02
BB: $100.00
UTG: $187.50
CO: $137.00

Pre Flop: pot: $2.00 Hero has

fold, fold, Hero raises to $3.00, fold, BB calls $2.00

Flop: $7.00, 2 players
BB checks, Hero bets $5.00, BB raises to $18.00, Hero

Villain is running at 19/14/2 with a BB 3bet of 3 over 1176 hands. His flop check-raise is 6%.
My impression of villain is that he is a weak regular that can overplay his hands preflop and plays somewhat straight forward postflop.
According to my analysis I should simply fold this flop to his check-raise, as he won't be light enough to warrant a peel or reraise. Would you agree with this?

There is no such thing as certainty in life, only opportunity.

MiPwnYa

Brasil. Apr 27 2012 22:01. Posts 5230

meh... fold might be correct but i usually end up calling and stacking off on non heart turn, I mean he has to be check raisin his strong draws as well

InsideMan United Kingdom. Apr 28 2012 10:20. Posts 159

If I run some sims, he flops a set 4.5% of the time. If you assume that he has big draws 1.5% of the time, then if we call flop and shove brick turns we are still getting it in with 5% equity 75% of the time.
So imo we really need him to be bluffing with some reasonable frequency to continue.

There is no such thing as certainty in life, only opportunity.