$1 2nd nut str8 4Bet Pot 300BB eff

Villain is a bad LAG. He's playing 56/38/2 with a 3Bet of 19 over 480 hands.
I've seen him make some spewy 3Bets preflop against shorter stacks and I've also seen him stick it in light on a dry A high board in a 4Bet pot for 100bbs.
Facing his turn shove, we need ~38% equity to break even. Thanks for your input.

Submitted by : InsideMan

$1 PL Hi 6 max - Omaha Hi - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

CO: $115.80
BTN: $88.30
SB: $101.70
BB: $489.89
Hero UTG : $302.61

SB posts SB $1.00, BB posts BB $1.00

Pre Flop: pot: $2.00 Hero has

Hero raises to $3.00, fold, fold, fold, BB raises to $10.00, Hero raises to $31.00, BB calls $21.00

Flop: $63.00, 2 players
BB checks, Hero checks

Turn: $63.00, 2 players
BB checks, Hero bets $45.00, BB raises to $198.00

If you think about the hand from his perspective, he's putting you on AAxx. He can also pretty much discount the nuts once you checked the flop. You literally have the top of your range here so in theory he can make this play quite wide and expect a ton of fold equity. Whether he is actually doing that or not is another story though.

It sucks because I think once he goes for the c/r instead of just leading the turn it takes a lot of air out of his range. If he is freerolling us with the same hand + spades we are in bad shape (~27% equity). I think this is a pretty close spot and could go either way.

id muck when I run bad and call when I run good
how about that eh?
srsly i think its prob a fold

@ lacman730

I definetly agree with your analysis of the hand. I feel like it boils down to my feel for the player, because as you say it could go either way.
I mean, given that this spot seems so ambiguous, I think there is maybe more merit to folding than calling. It's unclear how many more hands we will be playing against this guy and we have immediate position on him with a little over 200bb if we fold.

@ MiPwnYa

I dunno, I personally think I'm more capable of making a good call here when running good than when running bad. I.e. I'm more likely to tip the information I have in my favour. So even though you were joking, I think there is some truth to your statement.