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player999   Brasil. Apr 05 2012 14:27. Posts 7927

villain is a passive fish

PL Omaha $4(BB) Replayer
SB ($400)
Hero ($1,130)
UTG ($1,362)
UTG+1 ($671)
CO ($1,026)
BTN ($556)
Dealt to Hero As Qd 7s Qh
UTG raises to $8, UTG+1 calls $8, CO calls $8, fold, fold, Hero calls $4
FLOP ($34) 4h Qs 4d
Hero checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 bets $16, CO folds, Hero raises to $48, UTG calls $48, UTG+1 folds
TURN ($146) 4h Qs 4d 8h
Hero bets $100, UTG calls $100
RIVER ($346) 4h Qs 4d 8h 3s
Hero bets $240, UTG raises to $1,063, Hero ???
+ Show Spoiler +

Browsing through your hand histories makes me wonder that you might not be aware these games are possibly play money. Have you ever tried to cash out? - Kapol 

MiPwnYa    Brasil. Apr 05 2012 14:39. Posts 4487

looks good


MiPwnYa    Brasil. Apr 05 2012 14:40. Posts 4487

now try to make that fold when ure 12tabling and stuck 25 buy ins
:D


lacman730   United States. Apr 05 2012 14:57. Posts 311

I just don't have it in me to make these kinds of laydowns.. especially not vs someone I perceive to be incompetent. I mean how do you know his thought process isn't something like "Awesome, I got Q4 on Q44! Ok no A or K on turn or river... I still got the nuts, now its time to raise!"

I mean you're getting better than 2:1 on the river and I think the probability of him overplaying a worse boat is probably greater than the probability of him flopping quads so I just make the crying call with top full as weird as that sounds.


lacman730   United States. Apr 05 2012 15:16. Posts 311

To put it another way, assuming he shows up with a bluff here 0%, the question just becomes "do you think he overplays Q4 or a weaker full house more or less than half the time he flops quads in this spot."

Any answer you get is just pure speculation without knowing more about him than just being a "passive fish". I've actually once seen a fish as high as 3/6 PLO clearly not know the rules of the game. (He got it allin pre with JJJ2r and checked back the nuts on the river).

 Last edit: 05/04/2012 15:17

MiPwnYa    Brasil. Apr 05 2012 15:27. Posts 4487

yea it all boils down to his degree of retardation/incompetence
ive never been shown anythin but quads in this spot but lacman does have some points


n0rthf4ce    United States. Apr 05 2012 15:47. Posts 8055

really looks like a fold vs almost any reg

www.cardrunners.com 

player999   Brasil. Apr 05 2012 16:01. Posts 7927


  On April 05 2012 15:47 n0rthf4ce wrote:
really looks like a fold vs almost any reg



yeah but its a fish

Browsing through your hand histories makes me wonder that you might not be aware these games are possibly play money. Have you ever tried to cash out? - Kapol 

aCa_   . Apr 05 2012 21:59. Posts 429

I will never be disciplined enough to fold in these spots


lacman730   United States. Apr 06 2012 09:12. Posts 311

Using Bayes' Theorem the question is "What is the probability villain has Q4 given he potted the river?" if we simplify the problem and only assume he can have Q4 or 44 here.

P(A|B) = P(B|A)P(A) / P(B)

A: Villain has Q4
B: Villain potted river

Since our pot odds are 2:1 P(A|B) must be > 33% for a call to be profitable. On the river there are two possible combos of Q4 and one combo of 44 so villain is twice as likely to hold Q4 as 44 if we assume he is just as likely to play hands with 44 in them as hands with Q4xx. (I realize this probably isn't the case.)

Equation becomes:

P(Q4|pots river) = P(pots river|Q4)P(Q4) / (P(pots river|Q4)P(Q4)+P(pots river|44)P(44))
.33 = x(2/3) / (x(2/3)+(1)(1/3))
x = .25

So basically if you think there's a > 25% chance he pots the river with Q4 in addtion to his 44's you have a profitable call. Hopefully all my assumptions and math are correct.


Daut    United States. Apr 06 2012 12:01. Posts 8323

dont think ive said this before, but i agree with every post above.

-def a fold vs a reg
-tough to fold when not playing your absolute best and on lots of tables
-tough vs a fish who might overvalue

lacman, if those were your assumptions, you did the math almost correct. villain has us covered by 200 bucks so we dont need full 33% equity. but anyway, theres a much easier way. if there are 2 combos we beat 1 we lose to and we need 33%, just need the 2 combos to equal .5 or 1/3 the time (.5 / (.5+1)), and .5 is 25% of 2.

but you also missed out on something else. its possible the fish could have 488x as well which is a stronger hand than Q4, but not necessarily a better hand given Q4 blocks QQ a bit better.


anyway i still think its a fold. this is almost always quads to me

NewbSaibot: 18 TIMES THE SPEED OF LIGHT. Because FUCK YOU, DautLast edit: 06/04/2012 12:02

lacman730   United States. Apr 06 2012 14:18. Posts 311


  On April 06 2012 12:01 Daut wrote:
dont think ive said this before, but i agree with every post above.

-def a fold vs a reg
-tough to fold when not playing your absolute best and on lots of tables
-tough vs a fish who might overvalue

lacman, if those were your assumptions, you did the math almost correct. villain has us covered by 200 bucks so we dont need full 33% equity. but anyway, theres a much easier way. if there are 2 combos we beat 1 we lose to and we need 33%, just need the 2 combos to equal .5 or 1/3 the time (.5 / (.5+1)), and .5 is 25% of 2.

but you also missed out on something else. its possible the fish could have 488x as well which is a stronger hand than Q4, but not necessarily a better hand given Q4 blocks QQ a bit better.


anyway i still think its a fold. this is almost always quads to me



Don't really have anything new to add to the discussion but wanted to point out that Hero is getting 2:1 on the river. Villain does have hero covered but he raised pot on the river, not allin. I did consider hands like 884x or KK88 or AQ88 when originally thinking about this spot but intentionally left them out when doing this calc for the sake of simplicity


Daut    United States. Apr 06 2012 18:00. Posts 8323

hero has 730 left after betting river, villain raised 823

NewbSaibot: 18 TIMES THE SPEED OF LIGHT. Because FUCK YOU, Daut 

 




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