200 nl ch/raise bluff river ?

I was playing tight at the table. villain 27/23/2.6, doesn't likes to fold flop or turn, but has low wtsd 22%. i also think he is capable of value betting thin.

bad spot to bluff ?

Submitted by : the cleaner

***** Hand History for Game 1111111111 ***** Poker Stars
$200.00 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Wednesday, March 28, 09:49:13 ET 2012
Table Scythia V Real Money
Seat 1 is the button
Seat 1: Player1 $302.45 USD - VPIP: 41, PFR: 3, 3B: 1, AF: 1.2, Hands: 768
Seat 2: Player2 $551.89 USD - VPIP: 25, PFR: 20, 3B: 9, AF: 3.2, Hands: 3286
Seat 3: Player3 $497.78 USD - VPIP: 24, PFR: 18, 3B: 7, AF: 3.0, Hands: 6825
Seat 4: Hero $200.00 USD - VPIP: 23, PFR: 19, 3B: 9, AF: 3.1, Hands: 889780
Seat 5: Player5 $302.08 USD - VPIP: 23, PFR: 19, 3B: 8, AF: 3.6, Hands: 1106
Seat 6: Player6 $204.60 USD - VPIP: 33, PFR: 20, 3B: 9, AF: 2.6, Hands: 876
Player2 posts small blind [$1.00 USD].
Player3 posts big blind [$2.00 USD].

Holecards
Dealt to Hero [ ]
Hero raises [$6.00 USD]
Player5 folds
Player6 calls [$6.00 USD]
Player1 folds
Player2 folds
Player3 folds

Flop (Pot : $15.00)

   
Hero bets [$10.00 USD]
Player6 calls [$10.00 USD]

Turn (Pot : $35.00)

   
Hero bets [$25.00 USD]
Player6 calls [$25.00 USD]

River (Pot : $85.00)

   
Hero checks
Player6 bets [$62.00 USD]
Hero raises [$159.00 USD]

wait a street more, you have oesd and fd.

hehe

Why not just fire 3rd barrel then?

does he see you like someone who can bluff 'thin' ?

On March 29 2012 02:07 phexac wrote: Why not just fire 3rd barrel then?

i think he would call me down much wider (mid pairs, weak Qs), that he should fold to a river ch/raise.

On March 29 2012 03:25 careface_ wrote: does he see you like someone who can bluff 'thin' ?

yes, i think so. but i have been playing pretty tight at the table.

with the information you gathered, there is no way you can know if this play is profitable or not. But i'd guess your losing $50-100 here. It's hard to say.

if he can value bet thin, but still doesn't believe you, then that's worse because he just has more bluffcatchers to call you with. you really need to be absolutely certain of what level this guy is on to make a ridiculous play like this.

Well he shouldn't be very strong on that river. we can balance this play by playing a set the same every once in a while, which i do vs opponents, who i think will value bet river when checked too.

I think triple barreling is better than ch-r. I believe that most of the time, the hands that we are trying to fold out with a ch-r will just check behind or fold to a triple barrel.

The obvious problem with this is that you are giving yourself worse odds than if you just bet and while when you bet your value range is something like A9+ as compared to "a set once in a while" its obviously much wider. I agree that he cant really have much but I dont see how he can vbet worse than TT here when its a really common spot for us to C/bluffcatch with like Qx when 2 FDs missed, and besides we dont rep much that he might just call with all valuehands. Basically its one of those spots where you correctly identify his range as weak but cant do much because nearly all your valuerange plays either as a c/c or a bet.

balancing your river CR range after 2 barreling and having every draw busto here is a absurd, esp vs a large player pool, its something that is near irrelivant and wont show up again for a very long time - to the degree where you should almost always be making the highest EV vacuum play

On March 29 2012 09:38 TalentedTom wrote: balancing your river CR range after 2 barreling and having every draw busto here is a absurd, esp vs a large player pool, its something that is near irrelivant and wont show up again for a very long time - to the degree where you should almost always be making the highest EV vacuum play

we have a winner!

This is a very nice value line. I think its good man.

I like this line, and I guess its okay to balance with bluffs occasionally.

On March 29 2012 09:38 TalentedTom wrote: balancing your river CR range after 2 barreling and having every draw busto here is a absurd, esp vs a large player pool, its something that is near irrelivant and wont show up again for a very long time - to the degree where you should almost always be making the highest EV vacuum play

ding!

On March 29 2012 05:30 the cleaner wrote: Show nested quote + On March 29 2012 02:07 phexac wrote: Why not just fire 3rd barrel then? i think he would call me down much wider (mid pairs, weak Qs), that he should fold to a river ch/raise.

why would be bet fold the river????

seems fine...he will call you light sometimes, if he calls you super light its probably bad

c/f, b/f, c/r its one of those but really a feel spot beyond that

edit: interestingly...i think you c/r'ed river because you thought just barreling would look weak right?
to where the range you should be more worried about balancing after this is your barreling range prob

I just think 3 barreling here is better