nl400 set on bad river

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ciachooooo Vatican City State. Mar 04 2012 17:26. Posts 335

Submitted by : ciachooooo

***** Hand History for Game 1111111111 ***** On Game
$400.00 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Sunday, March 04, 08:44:52 ET 2012
Table Guantanamo Real Money
Seat 4 is the button
Seat 4: Player4 $194.60 USD - VPIP: 34, PFR: 22, 3B: 11, AF: 1.8, Hands: 573
Seat 5: Hero $462.70 USD - VPIP: 22, PFR: 18, 3B: 7, AF: 3.6, Hands: 30854
Seat 6: Player6 $1025.40 USD - VPIP: 20, PFR: 16, 3B: 7, AF: 2.8, Hands: 45813
Seat 7: Player7 $388.00 USD - VPIP: 25, PFR: 21, 3B: 8, AF: 3.0, Hands: 21009
Seat 8: Player8 $467.00 USD - VPIP: 22, PFR: 18, 3B: 8, AF: 3.2, Hands: 38064
Seat 10: Player10 $636.00 USD - VPIP: 21, PFR: 18, 3B: 9, AF: 2.3, Hands: 12538
Hero posts small blind [$2.00 USD].
Player6 posts big blind [$4.00 USD].

Holecards
Dealt to Hero [ ]
Player7 folds
Player8 folds
Player10 raises [$10.00 USD]
Player4 folds
Hero raises [$34.00 USD]
Player6 folds
Player10 calls [$26.00 USD]

Flop (Pot : $74.00)


Hero bets [$45.00 USD]
Player10 calls [$45.00 USD]

Turn (Pot : $164.00)


Hero bets [$94.00 USD]
Player10 calls [$94.00 USD]

River (Pot : $352.00)


Hero checks
Player10 bets [$461.00 USD]
Hero ?

this guy is a regular with 26% co open
fold co to 3b 58%
4b range on co 4%
fold to cb in 3b pots 36%
turn 35% (in all pots, dunno if there is option to check turn fold to cb in 3b pots)
river 30%

what is your play here?
do you check/call hoping to bluffcatch AJ, AQ, KJ, KQ, Ax? Also there are only like 2 cards in the deck that he is valueshoving.

or do you just check/fold thinking that he won't turn a hand into bluff here?

if it does affect your decision, his river Afq is 27%

or maybe you play the hand other way at some point?

i have 288 behind (need 31% equity to make call be)

The room is so quiet you can hear Stanko saying to himself, I am the best player.

Last edit: 04/03/2012 17:27

EvilSky

Czech Republic. Mar 04 2012 18:08. Posts 8918

I dont like that you have over TWELVE THOUSAND hands on the guy and the only thing you have to offer are stats, which arent very helpful for this particular spot. By this point its up to you to know what his range is by the river and how likely he is to turn stuff into a bluff and how low he will vbet.

ciachooooo Vatican City State. Mar 04 2012 18:10. Posts 335

obv hands are datamined

also, I have reads on this guy, but nothing that i think that can affect the way we play here

The room is so quiet you can hear Stanko saying to himself, I am the best player.

EvilSky

Czech Republic. Mar 04 2012 18:37. Posts 8918

oops my bad then lol, Im really tired :o

Minsk United States. Mar 06 2012 22:54. Posts 1558

very easy fold

ManYac Poland. Mar 08 2012 10:04. Posts 152

As played I fold without good reason based on read which u dont have here. I would also change your size betting on the flop and turn. I think on this kind of board bigger bets dont change his calling range and if those kind of turn hits the board u can bet bigger on the turn and gain more value from AxXh hands.

YoMeR United States. Mar 08 2012 16:38. Posts 12438

with just a stream of numbers as our main source of information without any concrete facts we gotta fold ;o

eZ Life.

Trolala Estonia. Mar 10 2012 09:29. Posts 2050

Am I only one who thinks that flop and turn sizing need to be bigger?

We have 289 left on the river while pot is 352

And 3bet sizing also bigger? OOP + bigger stacks.

Last edit: 10/03/2012 09:32