5/10 river decision

Eight handed $5/10 game at an Indian Casino in Oregon. Villan in the hand is a pretty straight forward nitty reg who has a tendencey to randomly spazz out sometimes.

Stacks:
Button ($1000)
Villan ($1500)
I cover both

Preflop: I raise to $35 UTG w , Button calls. Villan is in the BB, he calls.

Flop: (Pot: $105)
Villan checks, I bet $75. Button folds, villan calls

Turn: (Pot: $255)
Villan checks, I bet $200. Villan calls somewhat quickly

River: (Pot: $655)
Villan instantly bets $400

I am fairly confident this is a bluff just from playing with him a decent amount and the insta bet. So assuming this read, is there value in raising this river or do we think our AJ is to strong and calling down is better. I realize this is a pretty small pot but thought it might be worth talking about.

surely you can't expect us to think that you know that he bluffs here 100% of the time with worse hands than Aj and that there is so much certainty in that, that we can get value from k9cc or something in shoving.

Probably check turn and fold river

Actually kind of a tricky spot since live players are so bad, opponent could easily be donking some weak one pair lacking any reasoning. I'm still just gonna say its a spot where fold>call> raise. If you think betting turn is good then his river range won't be particularly wide.

i would check the flop, check the turn, and call a river bet

i think this is a great hand to illustrate the difference between live and online poker. the majority of the time when we are playing, we assign a range to an opponent and derive the best line based on that calculation. here, we have a valuable piece of information on a specific live read facing a particular line/runout. this line is usually indicative of a straight, but hero has stated that he is fairly confident the timing and line of the play is a bluff. now the play becomes very simple: HOW bad is he to turn made hands into a bluff? and even more importantly...does he EVER call a shove with this particular line? answer those questions and then you know whether you should call or shove.

fwiw i think this line is totally fine.

On February 19 2012 08:02 Stroggoz wrote: surely you can't expect us to think that you know that he bluffs here 100% of the time with worse hands than Aj and that there is so much certainty in that, that we can get value from k9cc or something in shoving.

Fairly confident in no way means i know 100%. Obviously if I knew 100% I would just shove...

I think I can discount a good amount of pair plus draws on the flop from his range because he raises/donks those a large majority of the time to my flop bet. Thinking back I guess that isn't something a straightforward nitty reg would do so my post might have been a little misleading. What I am mainly worried about is an over pair to board or AK/AQ that he decided to turn into a bluff. He also has a straight or boat here sometimes of course but the timing of his river bet made me lean more towards bluffs (play with him almost every weekend). As to whether he ever calls a shove with hands turned into bluffs, everything I have seen says no. So I guess I just need to answer that first question about how bad he is.

On February 19 2012 19:31 4TM wrote: I think I can discount a good amount of pair plus draws on the flop from his range because he raises/donks those a large majority of the time to my flop bet. Thinking back I guess that isn't something a straightforward nitty reg would do so my post might have been a little misleading. What I am mainly worried about is an over pair to board or AK/AQ that he decided to turn into a bluff. He also has a straight or boat here sometimes of course but the timing of his river bet made me lean more towards bluffs (play with him almost every weekend). As to whether he ever calls a shove with hands turned into bluffs, everything I have seen says no. So I guess I just need to answer that first question about how bad he is.

I am in such cases is almost always easy to shove

Don't know why no one else thinks this information is pertinent ... but we need to get an idea of how wide he is to call preflop before we can really make a decision on the river.

Honestly ... I keep getting surprised at the advice I'm seeing being given in some of these NL hands.

Your line is good against other decent to strong players (as long as you are barreling 80% of rivers), but against a donk I don't see why it's better to bet turn and chk back river than to chk back turn and bluff catch river. And I don't buy river ever being a shove.

im with marshall 101.99%

if villain in the hand is who i think it is then this is a snap call