Let's play a hand: Flush vs Polarized? Range

Submitted by : exalted

***** Hand History for Game 1111111111 ***** Merge
$1000.00 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Wednesday, February 01, 05:41:32 ET 2012
Table Templo Mayor 48225762 Real Money
Seat 4 is the button
Seat 1: Player1 $310.00 USD - VPIP: 19, PFR: 18, 3B: 8, AF: 5.7, Hands: 6943
Seat 2: Player2 $280.00 USD - VPIP: 23, PFR: 21, 3B: 11, AF: 2.3, Hands: 854
Seat 3: Player3 $1131.18 USD - VPIP: 22, PFR: 18, 3B: 13, AF: 1.4, Hands: 277
Seat 4: Player4 $2427.28 USD - VPIP: 35, PFR: 18, 3B: 7, AF: 2.0, Hands: 188
Seat 5: Hero $1352.00 USD - VPIP: 19, PFR: 16, 3B: 7, AF: 5.4, Hands: 178186
Hero posts small blind [$5.00 USD].
Player1 posts big blind [$10.00 USD].

Holecards
Dealt to Hero [ ]
Player2 folds
Player3 raises [$22.50 USD]
Player4 folds
Hero calls [$17.50 USD]
Player1 calls [$12.50 USD]

Flop (Pot : $67.50)

   
Hero checks
Player1 checks
Player3 checks

Turn (Pot : $67.50)

   
Hero bets [$51.00 USD]
Player1 folds
Player3 raises [$175.00 USD]
Hero calls

lol, there are actually more combos of nutflush in his range than any other value hand he might have, like JJ or AJ w Aof diamonds. It's pretty reasonable for him to check back Axdd when he doesn't expect to get value from anything, and protecting his hand is not nessecary.
But it's not very reasonable to check back the flop with a low flushdraw like 78dd. so its very unlikely he has a lower flush.
even calling for the equity you have against JJ isn't that great, as nut flush is about 3 times more likely than JJ, and JJ has equity.
you might say, "oh but he could have Ad and be turning it into a bluff now because exalted can't be betting a worse ace" but, nope. He doesn't have many offsuit aces in his opening range, assuming he is opening about 20% from the CO, worst he can have is ATo, and going to assume AKo and AQo would have bet the flop so they are out.

looks like you are behind his range, but have to call given pot odds. you would need 29% equity to breakeven on a call if the hand were to end right here. I think you have about 37% equity. GL on the river lol!

(all this is assuming player is never making a move with total airball, but hand will probably play out the same regardless)

I like a small reraise

what program is that silver?

flopzila

There's quite a bit of combos of nut flush but there's only 1 A diamonds whereas there's the entire deck of other diamonds... obvs our hand would be way better if we didn't have teh Qd as well but whatever using only that logic for somehow folding this hand would be retarded...

as for the hand in a vacuum a 3 bet would be good unless we think his range is so bluff heavy...then we call. check/jam all day.

if his turn raise has more value hands let's get the monies in

Actually would anyone consider clicking it back here? we keep almost 100% of his range in and maybe induce some kinda spazz as well. Not sure how good this is but I can see this being pretty good vs the right players.

I'd flat and crai the river unless it pairs, then I c/c. I might c/c the blank river if I get that feeling.

edit: actually I'd probably c/c all rivers if he's any good. He should be able to get away from worse pretty often (depending on our image) that shipping would be a bit thin.

Its a tough spot because its very possible he bets all his low fds and checks all his tp+nfd, the opposite or some combination of both, its really hard to say without a specific read. I doubt he would check back AJ especially with the shortie there and JJ he would bet the flop some % of the time. So depending on specific tendencies stacking off could be terrible or great and being in this gray zone of uncertainty I guess either option becomes valid.

I don't really think too hard about this spot

I'd just call and c/c or c/shove river depending on what he does and obv what the river is

Alright to keep the thread moving:

I did flat turn. Interesting spot because I don't expect him to bluff here often or chk back AJ / low diamonds on the flop.

River is Jh. If we had 3b turn, are we jamming this river? As played, I'm guessing we're looking at c/c or c/f?

I think this kind of situation is pretty interesting because even if we have a decent amount of history with villain, it's such a unique spot that we won't have any specific reads here.

Go for the c/min raise now = 0