Thoughts about betting vs big folders

Ok, there's something that's been bugging me. 2 of the stats I keep on PAH are Fold to continuation bet and fold to flop bet. The higher the # is, the greener it gets. So if someone is up around 85% then I know I definitely want to Cbet them. But what about in situations where the flop is raggedy as hell? Now I get a bit confused. The problem is that I know they will fold a high percent of the time. So if I actually have a good hand, but the board isn't offering many good hands for them to be calling a Cbet with, I start feeling like I shouldn't bet. What I have started doing is betting less in those spots, like 1/2 the pot. My logic is that he will PROBABLY fold to the Cbet, but will only call the cbet on this type of flop with a really strong hand that beats mine. For example:

I raise preflop with KJs and get 1 caller behind who's tight and folds to cbets 90% of the time. The flop comes J88 rainbow. He's not likely to be on T9. If he does call a cbet here, the only hand I see him calling with that I beat is QJ. If he's slowplaying AA, KK or QQ I'm beat, if he had JJ he's got me, if he had A8s then I'm beat. I don't see him playing much else. So here I'm betting 1/2 the pot thinking that if he calls I'm pretty much done, but that he folds to cbets so much that a smaller bet will still do the job of getting him to lay down.

At the same time, if I had JJ in that spot, I figure it's best to bet the pot or overbet it. The logic is that since he's ONLY calling with the best hands, there's no point in betting weak hoping to entice a call. Because when he does call he will have a strong hand, it's best to just get the money in there.

Thoughts?

if you bet your weak/mediocre hands weakly and your monsters strongly, you could play face up anyway. You play also for the metagame. If you always c-bet strongly, you will often get a fold and it doesn't look suspiciously if you do in fact have a strong hand.

what stakes do u play such that even the WORST players cant figure out what you are doing here?

btw this is not an insult b/c i know even at 25/50 there are retards who play level 0 poker

but they are rare and seen like once every 2 weeks

True, there is the bet size thing overall. But the difference is that it isn't something you do on every continuation bet - only on certain boards. And of course you mix it up and bet 1/2 with monsters sometimes and pot with weak hands. I'm just saying you split it up while leaning towards the 1/2 pot bet.

IE, on a paired board with a mediocre hand you contbet 1/2 50%, 2/3 25% and pot 25%
on a paired board with a weak hand or a strong hand, you contbet 1/2 25% 2/3 25% and pot 50%.

something like that. you definitely don't do the exact same bet size every time, but leaning towards the lower bet sizes.


The point is, that you're varying your play greatly here.

1) You're only making this adjustment Vs people who fold a high percent of the time. So if they're watching how you play vs other people that have a different style than them, they won't really know how you're gonna play vs them. This causes your bet sizing to vary for the exact same situation in your overall play.

2) You're making this adjustment due to the board. On different boards you're betting in a different way, so they'd have to pay a lot of attention to realize that you are only betting like this on these certain boards.

3) You're still mixing your bet sizes and doing the occasional pot bet with a weak / mediocre hand and 1/2 bet with a monster.


With all of those factors I think it would be pretty hard for someone to get a read on what you were doing by your bet sizing.

But thats the beauty of it, you keep taking away pots with the cbet, most of the time you dont hit anyway so its for the best. When he does call or raise its totally transperent what hes got and plus you do it enough times and hell snap off with some random piece of crap at some point allowing you to stack him.

yes, cbet is good, keep doing it, i agree. I'm just talking about changing bet sizing vs specific opp on certain boards.

keep cbetting and they will start to float with like 77 on a J88 board etc,

The ONLY time i change my betsizes is vs shortstacks.

E.g, guys got like $5 behind at nl25 on a A49 flop. And i miss the flop. Pot of like $2.25, vs a shortstack ill often bet $1.25 here since they fold to that amount or push if they got an ace.

i like your thinking, and I do it often.

On November 15 2007 15:41 locoo wrote: i like your thinking, and I do it often.

woot =)

your thinking is fine at low and micro stakes and i highly encourage you to practice this and extend it to other situations. the basic precept here is that optimal play against a polarized range requires polarized betting.

most people won't pick up on this, particularly because your bet sizing depends on the board texture and the vast majority of your opponents don't even think about board texture much. so yeah this is good, go for it

On November 16 2007 11:55 [vital]Myth wrote: your thinking is fine at low and micro stakes and i highly encourage you to practice this and extend it to other situations. the basic precept here is that optimal play against a polarized range requires polarized betting. most people won't pick up on this, particularly because your bet sizing depends on the board texture and the vast majority of your opponents don't even think about board texture much. so yeah this is good, go for it

ok cool, thanks myth. My day is definitely made now, hehe.

This overall idea has been bugging me forever but I've never read anything about it in any books (though I've read so damn man) or articles. The one concept that I had read about was the idea of betting on the river vs someone who folds a lot. This was in theory of poker in the section about common mistakes. Basically the idea was that if they fold too much on the river, you should not value bet but also bluff more. If you know someone folds a large amount of the time, there's no reason to bet into them with a mediocre hand for value, cause they will only call you with something better. But it's fine to bluff them cause you'll get rid of em a lot.

Ugh, I bet that KJ on J88 board all day long. If a half pot bet will take it down, wh ynot do it? Why give him free cards when your hand is most likely best, but obviously vulnerable?

You can just check the flop instead of cbetting and fire the turn. This came up in this Friday's CR vid, at 10/20 by sbrugby. He opened or 3bet on the button with AA. The board came K84 or something raggy, and he said it was so dry he was going to just check it. He then got 2 big streets of value from QQ which called down on the K high board.

The problem, of course, is becoming too predictable and people picking up on how you play big hands on dry boards where you think you won't get action. At 50 nl I pick up on this from opponent's fast, but lately I've been 1 tabling so that helps.

I didn't read the whole thread but a common adjustment i do vs these types of weak/passive cunts is raise a much wider range pf. and keep pressuring them with constant c bets. especially if i have position on them on the table.

I typically don't change my bet sizing too much unless the player is really bad/weaktight/agro or what not.

And as long as you're betting weak with good and strong hands i dont' see much of a problem with that either.

hope this helps.

On November 17 2007 16:30 bigbb33 wrote: You can just check the flop instead of cbetting and fire the turn. This came up in this Friday's CR vid, at 10/20 by sbrugby. He opened or 3bet on the button with AA. The board came K84 or something raggy, and he said it was so dry he was going to just check it. He then got 2 big streets of value from QQ which called down on the K high board. The problem, of course, is becoming too predictable and people picking up on how you play big hands on dry boards where you think you won't get action. At 50 nl I pick up on this from opponent's fast, but lately I've been 1 tabling so that helps.

Yea I like that play a lot. But AA on K 8 4 is stronger than KJ on J 88.

On November 17 2007 16:27 ShaunR wrote: Ugh, I bet that KJ on J88 board all day long. If a half pot bet will take it down, wh ynot do it? Why give him free cards when your hand is most likely best, but obviously vulnerable?

I rarely check, unless my hand is super solid, like a set on a raggy board. If I have a feeling like maybe checking, I will bet the lower size of the betting range.

The overall point is that you know they fold SO MUCH, that they will ONLY call with a better hand. Like say you have A8s on a 258 rainbow board vs a semi tight player who called on the button when you raised from the cutoff. Now what the hell will he call with that you beat? He's not calling overcards cause he's folding so much. He's not playing low suited connectors vs your raise, so I doubt he's on 67 for a straight draw. there's no flush draw. If he calls your Cbet here he either slowplayed a big pocket pair, or he has 99/TT/JJ, or he's on a set. There's nothing else that he WOULD call with. The only thing that I can see him calling with that doesn't beat your TpTk is A8 as well.

So, in that spot you KNOW he folds to cbets easily, so you can probably get rid of him with a 1/2 bet as easily as with a pot bet... and if you make a pot bet and he calls, you know you're pretty well screwed so you've just wasted money. You don't want to check and give a free card, so you should throw out the half bet and get that fold 90% of the time, and then slow down when he calls / raises...

I think I just explained it better there than I did in the original post, especially cause that's a better example =)