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Daniels 100k challenge

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NewbSaibot   United States. Feb 10 2009 21:23. Posts 4948
I am starting a blog to act as a journal for myself, to be able to reflect back upon day after day, month after month, and see how my frame of mind changes and how my play evolves. Any comments will always be welcome.

I recently read about Daniel challenging himself to go from $10 to $100k by playing 5 buyins per limit at a time. This idea inspired me to try the same, albeit I will be starting at NL25 just because I feel like it, so that means a starting bankroll of $125, and I move up to NL50 at $250. I am simply doing this as I have reached a point where I lack much motivation with this game, and a new "system" like this has aroused by interest, so it's more for fun than anything. I also think it is a rather novel idea for a new challenge amidst all the bankroll building challenges out there which could have some interesting results, and at least offer a lot of excitement.

I may or may not stop the challenge at a certain bankroll, depending upon whether I wish to end it and play properly rolled for a certain limit or not. For instance, if I were to make $20,000, I would probably want to just stop, and either cash out with greed, and play whatever limit that would roll me for. Or of course maybe I'll actually have the discipline to continue playing all the way to 100k. Again, really just for fun since thats all that drives me these days.

Since I expect the swings to be pretty wild I'll probably update with progress after each session, since a good day could mean a new limit, and a bad one could mean dropping two. Since there is no real method to this madness, I have made a few rules of my own:

1) 2 BI stop loss no matter what, to avoid tilt
2) Have to regrind to 5 buyin's before taking another shot
3) Will play one table at a time only
4) If I double up at a table I will sitout on the next blind so as to avoid having too large a percentage of my bankroll on the table at any given point (see post #18)
5) I will play 6max only as that is the only game I am any good at
6) Buyin requirement may increase at higher levels if it looks as though I cant compete, at NL600 for example.


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bye nowLast edit: 22/02/2009 01:27

seatown12   United States. Feb 10 2009 21:26. Posts 1193

why one table at a time?

Im like a motherfucking bulletproof tiger 

CrownRoyal   United States. Feb 10 2009 21:28. Posts 11386

how do you have 0 posts

WHAT IS THIS 

Balzamon   Sweden. Feb 10 2009 21:35. Posts 2868

1 table at a time under nl1k or whatever seems like a HUUUUUGE fucking timewaste and ev waste.


Jubert69   United States. Feb 10 2009 21:53. Posts 3191


  On February 10 2009 20:28 CrownRoyal wrote:
how do you have 0 posts


Blog threads don't count as posts.


fira   United States. Feb 10 2009 22:56. Posts 6345


  On February 10 2009 20:28 CrownRoyal wrote:
how do you have 0 posts


you notice and comment about such ownage things ilu


NewbSaibot   United States. Feb 10 2009 23:42. Posts 4948

edit: fuck, lost my post. Screw it.

bye nowLast edit: 10/02/2009 23:59

DaEm0niCuS   United States. Feb 11 2009 00:31. Posts 3292

1 tabling.... ya, thats gonna last a few days, at most.


NewbSaibot   United States. Feb 12 2009 00:06. Posts 4948

Ok so heres first few session results. One word sums this up, haaaaaaahaaahahahahahahaha.. Or is that 9 words?



So basically I came flyin outta the gate swinging and went way over the top in a few hands during that losing session. One I was drawing dead, one I just totally misread what villain is capable of, and the other was a hideous AIPF suckout AT vs my AK. So I think I've completely adjusted that end of my game so I wont be doing THAT shit anymore, but I still intend to poke and prod players to see just how optimally I can play 1 table. Definitely going to be some more lolgraphs im sure but my spirits are still high.

I broke my cardinal rule of stopping at 2 BI loss. You see the 2nd buyin was the suckout which tilted me so I kept on going. This was also during my lunch break which I probably wont be doing much anymore since I just cant devote enough time to play during this period (nor should I, it's my damn lunch break! 1.5 hrs FTL).

I took a few notes on general play tendencies to add to this journal so I can reflect back and see what I think of them a week/month(s) from now. These are my current thoughts. They are based on a 407 hand sample size lol, so I think they may be subject to change. But feel free to comment on them, if you think I'm way off, or spot on, I'd be interested to hear what people have to say.

1. Almost everyone is ALWAYS slow playing the nuts lol, checking down sets and straights and flushes desperately looking for your cbet.
2. Most of them attack on the turn if they haven’t gotten any action yet.
3. Fish really do show up with drawn out flushes ALL THE TIME. Don’t pay them off.
4. Players value bet strong hands really small, 1/3 pot seems to be about average.
5. Counter aggression in the form of 3betting in position is crucial. In fact my positive winrates results almost exclusively from this facet alone. Every big pot I’ve won with or without showdown started from a 3bet pre.
6. Iso raising limpers on the BTN (who aren’t limping QQ) should be done on almost every hand.
7. Do not, I repeat do NOT fuck with a 3betting nit.
8. Most preflop 3bettors who have position on you tend to show up with a real hand.
9. Restealing in the BB against proven stealers should be done with any kind of hand that has any potential whatsoever. DO NOT CALL. Either 3bet or gtfo. Fold to 4bets. Check raising the flop when you improve is a good way to play sheriff, and they WILL eventually stop opening so loose in the CO and BTN.

bye nowLast edit: 12/02/2009 00:10

NewbSaibot   United States. Feb 16 2009 01:42. Posts 4948

Nothing all that interesting. Too busy with work to play the last few days. Squeezed in a few sessions, still trying to figure out what is the most optimal way to play these guys. I feel like I'm up against a lot of players just following the cardrunners/deucescracked script with their iso raising hands based upon table situation rather than hand strength, light 3 betting, light 4 betting, shoving misc flops based on stat reads etc etc. There has to be a way to exploit this thoughtless playbook of moves, just havent figured it out yet. Whenever I encounter these situations I ask myself "what would Daniel do?". My all time poker hero. I've seen interviews where he describes himself as an incredibly weak aggressor, preferring to let other players do the betting etc. Unfortunately the few times I can recall just calling someone down with 2 pair or better for the hell of it, they catch runner runner 9 high flush etc. But as I recall, my calling based upon the read that they were making a play at me rather than actually betting for value was right. So I'll have to experiment some more with this.

Each session I play I'm sure I'm all over villain's HUD radar with some pretty zany stats. I even managed to sustain 48/34/2 stat at one table simply because I was sitting to the left of someone who was running 92/0/.5 lol. I chipped up 50 BB's just cbetting this guy, until of course he catches 2 pair calling down an ace to my AQ. So he makes it back and then some.

Mostly breakeven, until today. Had a couple of draw vs draw situations where villain thought he was good, only to hit random pair on the river to beat me.

I still feel like I'm playing optimally to be honest, not making any goofy bluff's or bad hero call's etc. I'd probably sign up for Daniels PokerVT site just to see his recent foray into the micro stakes limits to understand his thought process, but reading the site looks like he hasnt posted any of that content yet.

I must say note taking is really paying off in dividends. Because I can follow each and every hand going on, just today for example I made a hero call with middle pair on a scary river because my note said this guy always value bets the nuts like 1/3 pot. This time he comes out for like 85% pot, so I said fuck it, this doesnt make sense, he wouldnt do this, and I called. Even got a couple of "NC" comments in the chat. Also ran into a few minbetting maniacs who I saw enough showdowns with to get notes on that should have been rock solid.. unfortunately I was too scared to 3bet them off their hands and I kept folding looking for better spots. I really need to trust these notes since so far I've been able to make about 4 rock solid dead reads on players.

My bankroll is $86 at the moment. I feel like I should just stay at NL25 and keep trying to grind it back up since the smaller limits are just such an EV waste.

Still playing 1 table. I'm finding enough situations to mess around with where I'm not utterly bored, so I'll continue playing my 30+ vpip style until I'm convinced it's just impossible to win with. Quitting this session -2 BI's like I promised I would, since I can already feel the tilt affecting me.



bye nowLast edit: 16/02/2009 02:25

NewbSaibot   United States. Feb 16 2009 02:23. Posts 4948

Update so I dont miss it: I think I'm gonna try disabling my HUD for a few sessions. Since I'm only playing 1 table, I should be able to start guaging player tendencies on my own. It might also help me from forming improper conclusions about players assuming I can get away with bluff's and other hands based upon a stat read rather than what I really think. I'll start the HUD initially just in case I'm sitting with someone I have 400+ hands on, but if they're all nobody's, then off it goes.

bye now 

seatown12   United States. Feb 18 2009 02:06. Posts 1193

you should probably move down if you only have $86

one thing to learn about this game is BR mgmt is probably even more important than actual skill/knowledge

Im like a motherfucking bulletproof tiger 

tloapc   Pitcairn. Feb 18 2009 02:12. Posts 2591

^ very very true, worth saying again 3 times outloud

The probability of someone watching you is proportional to the stupidity of your action. 

NewbSaibot   United States. Feb 18 2009 23:38. Posts 4948

Few more sessions: I think I'm starting to get comfortable with my play. I'm still keepin it real laggy, and tryin to mix it up whenever I can, limping some fishy hands on occasion just to alter villain's perception of my ranges etc etc. The way I see it, not every pot need be a pot that you win. I'm willing to invest 15 BB's with hands doomed to fail over the course of a few orbits just to keep people on edge so that I can slip in there with my monsters. Gotta spend money to make money. Maybe time will prove me wrong. I kinda enjoy keeping my stats fishy lookin since I dont really think im that big of a fish, and enjoy people playing back at me since I'm pretty much trying to trap every time anyway, be it through betting (inducing bluffs) or just slowplaying (they think im a donk calling down middle pair/gutshot).

I was killin it tonight takin a stab at NL50 and then some fag drew out backdoor flush on me with A2s. Combined with a few questionable hands where I purposely played OOP against 3bets just to let it be known I cant be squeezed out of every pot and hurt my meta game (which probably just resulted in me looking ultra passive postflop, as you can see my vpip/pfr starting to skew), I'm down 1.3 buyins as a result. Was hoping to finish strong, but had to quit after the suckout to keep from tilting.



BR: $213



bye nowLast edit: 18/02/2009 23:52

NewbSaibot   United States. Feb 19 2009 21:07. Posts 4948

WOaaaaaahhhhhhhhhh! Just got an epic lesson in FAIL! New fuckin note on the board right now:



Dun dun dunnnnnn, "QUIT TRYING TO OUTPLAY PEOPLE YOU HAVE 5 HANDS OF HISTORY WITH!!!!!!" I lost 2 buyins in 10 hands.

For some reason I decided to try and outplay people within 10 seconds of sitting at the table. I basically became obsessed with the fear that people might start immediately targeting me when I sit down just b/c im the new guy sitting down, see what I'm made of, etc etc. I mean, I do this to newbies sometimes too (that is to say, new person taking a seat). Now, maybe I'm wrong, maybe sometimes people do insta-fuck the new guy and start raising his blind and 3betting him etc just to see what they can get away with, but if thats the case I sure as hell picked the wrong time to find out. Got reamed by AA and KK to my laughable bullshit like 9To etc. I'm sure everyone began to salivate at my insanity so I promptly left to find another table. Damn that hurt my roll baaaaad. And, since my jackass self did not drop limits like Im supposed to, i lost some more. Only thing was this time I wasnt tilted. I was actually LOL'ing in my chair at how stupid I was playing so I felt "well Im not tilted, might as well stay and shape up". I dropped my buyin requirement to = 1/5 of the max so I still have the same effective bankroll in play, even though this doesnt particularly help my edge postflop being underrolled at the table like that.

Then this fuckin bullshit happens. Now the UTG guy was tilted and spewing, and the BTN was a complete fuckin idiot whom I was staying at the table precisely just to get in any possible spot whatsoever to stack him.

Submitted by : NewbSaibot

PokerStars Game #25135823666: Holdem No Limit ($0.25/$0.50) - 2009/02/19 20:43:59 ET
Table Adeona 6-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 2: Dwn2dsk ($32.40 in chips)
Seat 3: Hero ($43.25 in chips)
Seat 4: picostack ($50.75 in chips)
Seat 5: toninoyoyo46 ($12.15 in chips)
Seat 6: evanapkins ($56.50 in chips)
Hero: posts small blind $0.25
picostack: posts big blind $0.50

Holecards(Odds)
Dealt to Hero 9h7s
toninoyoyo46: raises $0.50 to $1
evanapkins: folds
Dwn2dsk: calls $1
Hero: calls $0.75
picostack: calls $0.50

Flop(Odds) (Pot : $4.00)

   2h7d7h
Hero: checks
Sir_Value joins the table at seat #1
picostack: checks
toninoyoyo46: bets $1.50
Dwn2dsk: raises $1.50 to $3
Hero: raises $6 to $9
picostack: folds
toninoyoyo46: folds
Dwn2dsk: calls $6

Turn(Odds) (Pot : $23.50)

   2h7d7hJd
Hero: bets $18
Dwn2dsk: raises $4.40 to $22.40 and is all-in
Hero: calls $4.40

River (Pot : $68.30)

   2h7d7hJdTd

Showdown
Hero: shows 9h7s (three of a kind, Sevens)
Dwn2dsk: shows 8d2d (a flush, Jack high)
Dwn2dsk collected $66.30 from pot

Summary
Total pot $68.30 | Rake $2
Board  2h7d7hJdTd
Seat 2: Dwn2dsk (button) showed 8d2d and won ($66.30) with a flush, Jack high
Seat 3: Hero (small blind) showed 9h7s and lost with three of a kind, Sevens
Seat 4: picostack (big blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 5: toninoyoyo46 folded on the Flop
Seat 6: evanapkins folded before Flop (didnt bet)



This sure as hell seemed like a good spot, as I expected them both to shove. I decided to go ahead and 3bet the BTN just because my hand is a lock to anything other than a coolered 7, and I expect UTG to shove from tilt.

So after that crap I decided to stay a few more orbits and rebuy full because this kid was just ridiculously pathetic. I had like 7 notes on him before I realized "wtf, how bout just write IDIOT FISH VALUE TOWN WITH ANYTHING" Unfortunately he left before I could collect.

So now my roll is back to $90, which is fine in reality since I should expect these kind of swings, which have largely been my own fault for playing dumb and thinking outside of my IQ level. But I wont go below NL25, not playing 1-table LAG style anyway. I dont really expect LAG to be possible below this limit. If I ever give up this challenge I'll just resort to mass grinding FR NL2 or 3.40 SNG's.

bye nowLast edit: 19/02/2009 21:12

NewbSaibot   United States. Feb 19 2009 21:22. Posts 4948

One other note: limping speculative hands is not the way to mix up your play. Everyone assumes limpers are weak, and if you're limping 9To OTB or QTs UTG, you ARE weak!! People are just going to try and run over you, and maybe, MAYBE you might be able to call off bottom pair with an excellent read, assuming they dont spike their overcard on the turn or river just aggressing on you. I guess if you're going to limp just so people dont start 3betting you every time you raise, limp AK or something and hope you dont get outdrawn on the flop. Or better yet, just limp the same PP's you would have been raising with earlier. This is probably better so you confuse opponents when you start betting postflop when last time you were checking.

bye now 

NewbSaibot   United States. Feb 21 2009 14:44. Posts 4948

Well i'm still swingin up and down, but think I've finally returned back to what is working thus far. The successful lag range of play definitely has to consist of a 30-36vpip + 20-27pfr type range. This seems to be optimal for keeping people on edge, showing up with monsters at the right times, and enough bluff creditability to be able to fold out better hands. It's just enough of that "goddamnit wtf does he have" image. However this style ONLY works against tagfish and passive's. Against other lag's it can spell certain doom, as I learned the hard way the other day. I played against a hyper raiser the other day, guy who opens 7BB UTG, 5x's your raises, and makes 1.2x pot bets. He showed up with air to very weak middle pair type hands a lot, and it cost me 3 BI's to see this, since I kept showing up with weaker pairs or ace high lol. After that I realized there was only ONE possible playstyle to handle this guy, and that was to play straight up TAG. Real TAG. While I didnt exactly get it all back from him, I did finish that table sitting with 360 BB's, which at least shows I CAN adapt. Something I wasnt sure of or not. This guy must have been pretty smart because I looked him up and he was sitting at 7 tables with about 250 BB's avg each, and he completely stopped playing like that against me within about 10 orbits when I changed.

Other than that, one session this morning where I finish break even, but quitting because I can feel the tilt coming. Guess they just "didnt believe me" eh??



bye now 

NewbSaibot   United States. Feb 22 2009 01:22. Posts 4948

Last note of the night before I forget:

Find out where you are sooner rather than later. Go ahead and invest the money into a 3bet or 4bet rather than investing the same on later streets with more difficult decisions.

Basically, if I have JJ on a T95 2 tone flop, I cbet and get check raised, or cbet OOP and and get 3bet, most people probably advocate the ole "call and evaluate on turn" line pending villain stats. Lets say you call, and the turn is K, now what? Or another suited card, or a friggin 10. You pretty much end up folding here all the time. But what if villain does something strange, bets out of line with your notes on him, or makes a 1/3-1/4 pot bet, or even stupid minbet. You just end up spewing off money without any indication of where you stand calling. Go ahead and just slam villain with a 4bet and you will pretty much find out right then and there where you are guaranteed, for the same cost as you would be calling off his turn bet since it's so hard to fold in spots like these.

I decided to play a particularly longer session at one table than usual. I originally made a rule to leave if I double up to avoid having too much of my bankroll at the table, but this sucks for all sorts of reasons, losing reads, leaving a fishy table, etc etc. I felt I had this table in complete lockdown and controlled all the action, and for that reason alone I decided to stay. I also had some good notes progressing, my stack size helped my image, and I came to the conclusion that sitting at the table deep with a bunch of 100 BB villains wasnt really going to hurt my edge or have any mathematical impact on my bankroll at all. Either way it's still 100 BB's on the line should I get it allin with these guys. Plus my confidence has risen enough where i didnt mind the possibility of butting heads with any other deep stacks.

In the end I can definitely hark back to my last post where I describe "finding what works". Finished this sessions strong.



bye now 

NewbSaibot   United States. Feb 22 2009 22:13. Posts 4948

Notes for today: You MUST have position against a fish if you intend to outplay him. If you are OOP you must play standard TAG only!!!

50+ vpip calling stations seem to have this innate understanding that if they are last to act, they can kinda sorta control the pot even if they keep calling with air/any gutshot draw. For some reason they tend to fold a LOT more often when you have position on them. Sat next to two retard monkies who kept minbetting the shit out of each other with just absolute random trash, backdoor draws, misc pairs, etc etc. It was the ugliest poker i've ever seen. Unfortunately I was sitting to the RIGHT of both of them, and just could never get a goddamn fold no matter what ,especially with two of them acting after each other. If one didnt catch the flop in some form or another the other one sure as hell thought he did. It then dawned on me that my best raping moments are when the fish is on my right and I just keep iso-raising random high cards and suited connectors and shit when he limps.

This is actually pretty fucking obvious but it takes seeing for believing to me.

One thing I must say, playing TAG really fucking works. I just had a nice 3 BI session where I was kinda forced into playing TAG, just because I wasnt feelin frisky and the table dynamics did not lend much to me playing a lot of hands. Raising good hands is really the way to go. I guess the only problem is it requires the perfect storm of circumstances for TAG to really shine. You will always be a winner playing tag. At worst, you may only finish a session up 10 BB's because you just never got any action, but you certainly wont finish down. At best, you are at a fishy table with loose players who stack off too easily and you just rape and rape and rape with your AA/KK/sets. You win soooo much more money then trying to outplay everyone constantly with your risky hands playing LAG. It's epiphany's like these that really make me question whether or not I should actually try this whole one-table LAG approach. It just seems way less EV than to "do it right". Time will tell.

bye nowLast edit: 23/02/2009 00:53

NewbSaibot   United States. Feb 23 2009 22:15. Posts 4948

FUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU

Very painful lesson today. I was fully rolled for NL50 @ 5 buyins, and found a gem of a table, 43% vpip with $15 avg pot size. I got the best seat in the house, right smack next to a deep stack 70/15/1.3 player. Ka-ching. Now since I have been employing a semi-successful LAG strategy, or that is at least learning the ropes of LAG without going busto, I figured time to value-own a calling station IP every chance I get. Boy was I ever wrong. While you might get a 30-40vpip station to fold a lot, anything above that is impossible. I put in 150 hands of isoraising this guy and lost 2.5 buyins as a result. JUST-WOULD-NOT-FOLD-ANYTHING-WHAT-SO-EVER. Any pair, and i mean ANY pair, ANY draw, and of course ANY ace high card. I tried raising suited connectors, small pockets, ace rag, king rag, any 2 face cards, etc etc etc. I just couldnt hit, and he ALWAYS hit. And I mean always. Just horribly horribly depressing to see him sitting there with so much of my money, laughing his ass off no doubt. I just kept staring in disbelief at this 5 BI stack with that bright beautiful 70vpip number under his name. How? How can someone play so faggishly loose and just keep winning and winning?

Anyway, the table certainly didnt mind me taking these shots, as I got it HU against him every time. After i was so disgustingly tilted and feeling like I was going to fail this challenge b/c I was about to snap and just shove any decent hand preflop any minute, I noticed the only other guy at the table who was winning. An 18/14 player. Then I realized, this guy is fucking WINNING, and winning for a reason. He's playing tight. He cant get the calling station to fold, so he has no choice but to nut hunt. So I picked myself up and realized, I just have to play like him. Hell he's probably jealous I have position on this donk. No more isoraising with marginal hands, no more 3 betting without AK and QQ+ etc. When I finally hit, just valuetown this fag all day and hope you dont get sucked out on. Finally, this:

Submitted by : NewbSaibot

PokerStars Game #25286384367: Holdem No Limit ($0.25/$0.50) - 2009/02/23 21:42:55 ET
Table Segin V 6-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: RedDog_6290 ($33.55 in chips)
Seat 2: DJAM88 ($248.30 in chips)
Seat 3: Hero ($69.25 in chips)
Seat 4: Pakashkan ($52.30 in chips)
Seat 5: booboo1985 ($20.60 in chips)
Seat 6: Chow123 ($83.25 in chips)
Pakashkan: posts small blind $0.25
booboo1985: posts big blind $0.50

Holecards(Odds)
Dealt to Hero JsKs
Chow123: folds
RedDog_6290: calls $0.50
DJAM88: raises $1.50 to $2
Hero: calls $2
Pakashkan: folds
booboo1985: folds
RedDog_6290: folds

Flop(Odds) (Pot : $5.25)

   8sQhTd
DJAM88: bets $2
Hero: calls $2

Turn(Odds) (Pot : $9.25)

   8sQhTd9s
DJAM88: bets $5
Hero: raises $10 to $15
DJAM88: calls $10

River (Pot : $39.25)

   8sQhTd9s2s
DJAM88: bets $41
Hero: raises $9.25 to $50.25 and is all-in
DJAM88: calls $9.25

Showdown
Hero: shows JsKs (a flush, King high)
DJAM88: shows 7s6s (a flush, Nine high)
Hero collected $136.75 from pot

Summary
Total pot $139.75 | Rake $3
Board  8sQhTd9s2s
Seat 1: RedDog_6290 folded before Flop
Seat 2: DJAM88 showed 7s6s and lost with a flush, Nine high
Seat 3: Hero (button) showed JsKs and won ($136.75) with a flush, King high
Seat 4: Pakashkan (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 5: booboo1985 (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 6: Chow123 folded before Flop (didnt bet)




Notice how sickly he connects though. This is why I couldnt beat him earlier. I kept attacking him and he would just always hit no matter what. Nothing I could do.

So I make back a decent chunk, and learn a valuable lesson. They call them calling stations for a reason. I guess it wasnt even so much that I knew his range would be so wide, more or less I thought for sure I could stil have some showdown value raising A5o when he limps 68o. Nope. He's going to pair up by the river no doubt.

bye now 

 



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