Hand analysis 1

I prefer a bet on the turn, but that works too if you know he floats.

hes actually the preflop aggressor and I probably should've pitched this on flop
but as played, and turn decision is mainly what I'm looking for.

I think its like this. On the turn you stand to win a pot of 130 if he folds on the turn. Then you subtract (QUOTE the amount you expect to lose if called MULTIPLIED by your losing equity ENDQUOTE) plus (QUOTE amount expected to win if called MULTIPLIED by winning equity).

Lets give him a turn range first to determine equity. Unfortunately I do not play any heads up at all except $5 HU sngs lol. But will villain even fold AKo without the club here? You're gonna have to come up with a hand range for him

I'm only winning the 95 thats already in the pot
which means I fucked up royally on my math

ok vs a bunch of pairs/2pairs with no club u have around 45% it seems? wow..
you're risking 149 to win 95

against that non club pair range u are actually wanting to get it allin lol
so basically either way u are winning money, just slightly more on average if he folds i think

EV (fold) = 95$
EV(call) = (0.45 * 424) - 149 = 41$

yup

you haver 0 fold equity, guy only has 200$ playing 400nl, prob ably a donk

whaaat? No if you're raising the turn its 60 + his 35 + your 35 which brings the pot to 130 if he chooses to fold and not call. There is absolutely nooooo way you have as high as 45% here with 1 card to come. Thats like saying 45% of the deck is one of your outs. I would guess you have maybe 20% equity on the turn because sometimes you're drawing dead to flush outs and your straight outs aren't even clean if he has a single club (KJ, AK, premium set etc) those are all hands in his turn calling range. So hes either got u crushed when he calls or has something foldable...

I'm gonna go with you having 20% equity on average on the turn because sometimes you're drawing dead. Since you didn't give your opponent a range lets assume he folds...33% of the time

0.33(130) - 0.66 [ (0.20x277) - (0.80x147) ]

Analyze this with me so it makes sense. 33% of the time he folds and we take down a pot of 130. 66% of the time we've got 20% equity and stand to win 130 (the pot) + 147 (opponent has behind). 80% of the time we have our villain covered and lose 147.

So 42.9 - 0.66 [55.4 - 117.6]
42.9 - 0.66[ -62.2]
=1.848

...wow. I was being realistic (on the pessimist side) about the villain's range here but I don't play 2/4. Apparently this play is slightly +EV.

Math Source: Justin Bonomo's BLUFF magazine article July 2008.
Disclaimer: What i dont understand is why he would use minus symbols on the ' getting called equity' to figure out the EV. Pretty sure I applied it right. He says semi-bluffing is a powerful play when you've got outs

when he folds I only win the 95, the additional 35 you're counting is part of my "to risk", not part of my winnings when he folds. Basically, as of the time I made my move theres $95 in the pot. If I fold, I get 0 of that $95. If I jam, I risk the 35 he put in + his remaining stack (35 + 147 behind) thus I risk $182 to win $95

its simple out counting, if he has KX or QX no club, I have 3 non-club ace and 3 non-club 9s and 9clubs, for a total of 15 outs. 15/44 is my equity

Just to clarify, I think gawdawaful has it.

Risk = Your entire effective stack because you're shoving (212) - flop invest (17) - pf invest incl. bb(13) = 182.

To Win = Pot (60) + His bet (35) = 95.



I don't know shit about 2/4nl HU hand ranges so I won't throw my 2 cents in at this, but PM me if you want help with the math done in excel, I'm trying to find time to analyze at least 1-2 spots like this every few days. I think you already have the shove EV from what I've skimmed, but it's 1am and I can't make much out of it. T_T

To compare shove EV vs call EV:

Shove EV: Need:
-A guess at fold % for this move.
-A concrete defined calling range to plug into stove.

vs

Call EV: Need:
-A defined betting range on the turn to plug into stove.
-Assumptions on your river line: when will he stack off or fold based on what cards/draws that come in. When will you fold, etc.
-Excel-assisted EV-average including every possible river card much like what Myth did in Main. If anyone does this, PM me or post it? Looking at the EV on the river against a specific range on boards where the draws come in/don't might be interesting.