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NL25 FR: A8o in CO flops 2 pair

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LazyAce   Canada. May 02 2012 20:12. Posts 4

Button is a standard nit.
BB is an uber nit running 12/7 with a 3bet of 2 and fold to cbet of 67 over 378 hands. FWIW, I've never seen him raise a flop where he called pre yet.
Flop is obviously a standard cbet. On the turn it gets pretty thin though. I suppose this nitty guy could have flatted AK here too afraid to 3bet with another cold caller and being oop. He definitely has some kind of hand though and isn't floating me with garbage after I bet this board into two villains. Flushes and sets as well as AJ are in his range here and it doesn't look like he is raising flops with his monsters.

I feel like the river is even much thinner. I'm only getting value from AQ and AK here but it looks like that is exacty what villain has give the line that he's taken. I would have expected a raise or a river lead from sets, AJ or a flush so I figure my read is most likely good.

My river sizing could probably be a bit smaller. Not many 12/7 nits are good enough to lay down TPGK here when they take a passive line with it though. I also don't like the idea of betting small enough to induce some kind of spazz raise or a value raise that I level myself into thinking he is spazzing due to my bet sizing. I'm pretty comfortable bet folding this river because I don't think he is ever going to crai with anything worse.

Thoughts?
Submitted by : LazyAce

PokerStars Hand #79813402690: Holdem No Limit (0.10/0.25 EUR) - 2012/05/02 18:58:13 ET
Table Naantali V 9-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 2: Seleventeen (26.34 in chips)
Seat 3: elitemicha2 (31.75 in chips)
Seat 4: Hero (43.28 in chips)
Seat 6: RakiBB (12 in chips)
Seat 7: TommyChien73 (25 in chips)
Seat 8: niunius987 (23.64 in chips)
Seat 9: tyna real (10.08 in chips)
TommyChien73: posts small blind 0.10
niunius987: posts big blind 0.25

Holecards
Dealt to Hero 8cAd
tyna real: folds
Seleventeen: folds
elitemicha2: folds
Hero: raises 0.50 to 0.75
RakiBB: calls 0.75
TommyChien73: folds
niunius987: calls 0.50

Flop (Pot : $0.00)

   8sJsAc
niunius987: checks
Hero: bets 1.57
RakiBB: folds
niunius987: calls 1.57

Turn (Pot : $0.00)

   8sJsAc3s
niunius987: checks
Hero: bets 3.67
niunius987: calls 3.67

River (Pot : $0.00)

   8sJsAc3s6d
niunius987: checks



Edit: didn't realize the hh converter cut off the river action. Villain checks to hero, hero bets $8.50...

 Last edit: 02/05/2012 20:30

Tensai176   Canada. May 02 2012 20:52. Posts 972

I would bet ~55% of the pot

 Last edit: 02/05/2012 20:52

Venrae   United States. May 02 2012 21:21. Posts 1528

I'm betting turn bigger and shoving river. I expect him to be playing better hands faster on flop/turn.

Learn to appreciate the value of the dollar. The rest is easy. (Hurricane @ TL) 

LazyAce   Canada. May 02 2012 21:48. Posts 4


  On May 02 2012 21:21 Venrae wrote:
I'm betting turn bigger and shoving river. I expect him to be playing better hands faster on flop/turn.



So would you bet call on the turn? Villain is 12/7 and has never raised a flop in almost 400 hand sample. This is why I expect him to not necessarily fast play his big hands here.


LazyAce   Canada. May 02 2012 21:48. Posts 4


  On May 02 2012 20:52 Tensai176 wrote:
I would bet ~55% of the pot



Are we folding to a shove?


Venrae   United States. May 02 2012 21:50. Posts 1528

yes I b/f turn. Bet enough to make river a comfortable shove.

flop looks a bit small as well after looking at it closer. I don't think we need to be merging bet sizing yet at nl25 unless it's vs a villain we have a lot of history with and we think is paying enough attention.

Learn to appreciate the value of the dollar. The rest is easy. (Hurricane @ TL)Last edit: 02/05/2012 21:53

 




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