NL25 FR: A8o in CO flops 2 pair

Button is a standard nit.
BB is an uber nit running 12/7 with a 3bet of 2 and fold to cbet of 67 over 378 hands. FWIW, I've never seen him raise a flop where he called pre yet.
Flop is obviously a standard cbet. On the turn it gets pretty thin though. I suppose this nitty guy could have flatted AK here too afraid to 3bet with another cold caller and being oop. He definitely has some kind of hand though and isn't floating me with garbage after I bet this board into two villains. Flushes and sets as well as AJ are in his range here and it doesn't look like he is raising flops with his monsters.

I feel like the river is even much thinner. I'm only getting value from AQ and AK here but it looks like that is exacty what villain has give the line that he's taken. I would have expected a raise or a river lead from sets, AJ or a flush so I figure my read is most likely good.

My river sizing could probably be a bit smaller. Not many 12/7 nits are good enough to lay down TPGK here when they take a passive line with it though. I also don't like the idea of betting small enough to induce some kind of spazz raise or a value raise that I level myself into thinking he is spazzing due to my bet sizing. I'm pretty comfortable bet folding this river because I don't think he is ever going to crai with anything worse.

Thoughts?
Submitted by : LazyAce

PokerStars Hand #79813402690: Holdem No Limit (€0.10/€0.25 EUR) - 2012/05/02 18:58:13 ET
Table Naantali V 9-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 2: Seleventeen (€26.34 in chips)
Seat 3: elitemicha2 (€31.75 in chips)
Seat 4: Hero (€43.28 in chips)
Seat 6: RakiBB (€12 in chips)
Seat 7: TommyChien73 (€25 in chips)
Seat 8: niunius987 (€23.64 in chips)
Seat 9: tyna real (€10.08 in chips)
TommyChien73: posts small blind €0.10
niunius987: posts big blind €0.25

Holecards
Dealt to Hero
tyna real: folds
Seleventeen: folds
elitemicha2: folds
Hero: raises €0.50 to €0.75
RakiBB: calls €0.75
TommyChien73: folds
niunius987: calls €0.50

Flop (Pot : $0.00)

   
niunius987: checks
Hero: bets €1.57
RakiBB: folds
niunius987: calls €1.57

Turn (Pot : $0.00)

   
niunius987: checks
Hero: bets €3.67
niunius987: calls €3.67

River (Pot : $0.00)

   
niunius987: checks

I would bet ~55% of the pot

I'm betting turn bigger and shoving river. I expect him to be playing better hands faster on flop/turn.

On May 02 2012 21:21 Venrae wrote: I'm betting turn bigger and shoving river. I expect him to be playing better hands faster on flop/turn.

So would you bet call on the turn? Villain is 12/7 and has never raised a flop in almost 400 hand sample. This is why I expect him to not necessarily fast play his big hands here.

On May 02 2012 20:52 Tensai176 wrote: I would bet ~55% of the pot

Are we folding to a shove?

yes I b/f turn. Bet enough to make river a comfortable shove.

flop looks a bit small as well after looking at it closer. I don't think we need to be merging bet sizing yet at nl25 unless it's vs a villain we have a lot of history with and we think is paying enough attention.