2 pair OOP 200BB deep vs fish

villain is 69/12 1.9 aggr. in over 400 hands. is this an insta jam on the river? or should i bluff catch? i hate playing OOP, whats the best line to take to maximize value?

Submitted by : bhamm!!

***** Hand History for Game 11624727347 ***** Party
$50.00 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Friday, April 06, 10:25:24 ET 2012
Table Speed 2410201 No DP Real Money
Seat 3 is the button
Seat 6: BonusBill $50.00 USD
Seat 3: Lebenswelle1 $140.31 USD
Seat 4: chergriga $53.92 USD
Seat 1: kittycarro $9.00 USD
Seat 2: Hero $103.69 USD
Seat 5: smhaxq $61.29 USD
chergriga posts small blind [$0.25 USD].
smhaxq posts big blind [$0.50 USD].

Holecards
Dealt to Hero [ ]
BonusBill folds
kittycarro folds
Hero raises [$1.50 USD]
Lebenswelle1 calls [$1.50 USD]
chergriga folds
smhaxq folds

Flop (Pot : $3.75)

   
Hero bets [$2.67 USD]
Lebenswelle1 raises [$5.34 USD]
Hero raises [$16.33 USD]
Lebenswelle1 calls [$13.66 USD]

Turn (Pot : $39.08)

   
Hero bets [$39.67 USD]
Lebenswelle1 calls [$39.67 USD]

River (Pot : $118.42)

   

ship it. You're not folding no matter what he does anyway so dont let him check behind.

should i have bet less on the turn? I was not really sure on my bet sizing here.

yeah bet a little less on the turn and jam or c/f river

lol 70 vpip

so far so good, if he has u beat here its just a very UL spot

BEING OOP here is 100% irrelivant, this is a shove and its not close at all - also having Ad is very helpfull

one of the 3 worst rivers but he only needs to call worse 33% so yea ship

even a little less actually assuming u don't plan to c/c or can't rely on him checking behind. Hope for AQ!!!

Why are you asking if you bet is too much on the turn if villain is a fish and the fish called? It's not like he folded, the more money you squeeze out the better.

70 vpip fish = insert "i have no idea what i'm doing" meme, so whenever you have a strong hand, pot it or close to pot.

Bet strong with these kind of villains with strong hands, bet less with worse hands EZ game

very well played. now ship river.

Heh, I'm going to analyse this in flopzilla just to show how much money you are printing by shoving river

Give him the Whale Range for preflop: (assuming he can't have AA-QQ because they would raise preflop)


so on JdAh5s Flop he has the following number of possible combinations of hands:

Pretty good situation for printing money with a cbet when 436 combos of no hand vs 4 combos of sets, but anyway, what happens when he raises?

When he raises he probably has most of his combos of 2 pairs and sets, and some of his top pairs, and sometimes with a draw. so filter the hands to reflect this...

Of the top pairs, only the ones with the blue funnel icon next to them will go to the next stage. I dropped out most, just leaving AK and a few suited Aces.


Turn the filters on! The green light at the bottom, crappier hands drop out, taking us to the next step in the hand: his range for raising flop. as you can see he now has many more strong hands in his range compared to weak hands. only 12 combos of no hand (draws) vs 4 combos of sets and 12 combos of 2 pair.
our AJ still has 75% chance to win though, even vs his stronger range.

Anyway I am getting bored, long story short: his range isn't going to change much on turn and river (check filters at bottom, 36 on flop, 27 on turn cause gutshots drop out, 27 combos on riv)

at the bottom right you can see out AJ equity (equity 2) of 51% on riv. so it is just barely a bet under these assumptions (because you need to get called by worse over 50% of the time to value bet the river), but keep in mind I have erred on the side of caution in my ranges, and he might have more combos of toppairs and other spazzy hands in range which would make it more of a bet.
definitely don't bluff catch imo, it is hard for him to have any draws to turn into a bluff.

in summary: wow, pretty close

when you are oop you need to be called by worse only about 33% (when shoving a PSB) because you bet one unit to win the unit in the pot and the unit in the opponents stack that is calling the riv bet.

in position it is different because you have the option to check behind so you don't factor in the money in the pot you just need to get called by worse 50%.

I'm bad Silver but i feel you need to include a bunch of random aces from my experience. Maybe discount them but like I've seen tards take this line with an ace

-e- basically if you're like 50% against a sensible range you're probably doing pretty good

-e2- this goes in with "im bad" but i realised there's like 400 hands on him and I don't understand what agreesison factor means so ignore me

On April 13 2012 11:29 traxamillion wrote: when you are oop you need to be called by worse only about 33% (when shoving a PSB) because you bet one unit to win the unit in the pot and the unit in the opponents stack that is calling the riv bet. in position it is different because you have the option to check behind so you don't factor in the money in the pot you just need to get called by worse 50%.

I think this is incorrect? true for a player who is calling a pot sized bet, but not for a bettor

e.g.
We are out of position on the river and into a 10bb pot we bet 10bb
compare these two cases

1: we get called by worse 50% of the time.
when we win, we win 30bb. when we lose we lose 10bb.
+30bb x 50% -10bb x 50%
=+15bb - 5bb = 10bb profit for whole hand
but, sitting on the river we expect to bet 10bb and get 10bb back on average. So decision to bet river is breakeven.

2: we get called by worse 33% of the time
when we win, we win 30bb. when we lose we lose 10bb.
+30bb x 33% -10bb x 66%
=+9.9bb - 6.6bb = 3.3bb profit
so, sitting on river we expect to bet 10bb and get 3.3bb back on average. Decision to bet river is lighting 6.6bb on fire.

If we can't vbet river have to check and then its a check-call spot where we have to have the best hand 33% of the time.

thoughts?

On April 13 2012 12:07 KoeBawlt wrote: I'm bad Silver but i feel you need to include a bunch of random aces from my experience. Maybe discount them but like I've seen tards take this line with an ace -e- basically if you're like 50% against a sensible range you're probably doing pretty good -e2- this goes in with "im bad" but i realised there's like 400 hands on him and I don't understand what agreesison factor means so ignore me

yeah, Thats the key part of the hand, where the real poker is played, evaluating this opponents flop raising-call 3bet range.

I try did try to err on the side of caution when constructing his range, but he probably does have more aces than I gave him. although if I recall correctly agg factor of 1.6 is kinda low? I don't know, I use agg frequency % now.