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nl25 AA (300bbs deep)

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xicotaSLB   Portugal. Nov 07 2011 18:09. Posts 1128

This guy is a reg 3 betting at 2% (350H) ... can i fold turn? after he calls flop i dont think he has QQ in is range, could he be doing this w AAd or KKd?


Submitted by : xicotaSLB

PokerStars Game #70195373575: Holdem No Limit ($0.10/$0.25 USD) - 2011/11/07 17:31:14 ET
Table Boucolion X 6-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: Roeleke333 ($75.74 in chips)
Seat 2: ZoLoToI_LoL$ ($26.01 in chips)
Seat 3: Hero ($73.93 in chips)
Seat 4: marcoregoluf ($28.35 in chips)
Seat 5: AndyGarsia ($97.74 in chips)
Seat 6: Littlengland ($25.86 in chips)
Roeleke333: posts small blind $0.10
ZoLoToI_LoL$: posts big blind $0.25
Roeleke333: posts the ante $0.05
ZoLoToI_LoL$: posts the ante $0.05
Hero: posts the ante $0.05
marcoregoluf: posts the ante $0.05
AndyGarsia: posts the ante $0.05
Littlengland: posts the ante $0.05

Holecards(Odds)
Dealt to Hero AsAh
Hero: raises $0.50 to $0.75
marcoregoluf: folds
AndyGarsia: raises $1.50 to $2.25
Littlengland: folds
Littlengland leaves the table
Roeleke333: folds
ZoLoToI_LoL$: folds
Hero: raises $5 to $7.25
AndyGarsia: calls $5

Flop(Odds) (Pot : $14.85)

   JdQd4s
Hero: bets $11.25
AndyGarsia: calls $11.25

Turn(Odds) (Pot : $37.35)

   JdQd4s4d
Hero: bets $23.75
AndyGarsia: raises $55.44 to $79.19 and is all-in
Hero: calls $31.63 and is all-in
Uncalled bet ($23.81) returned to AndyGarsia

River (Pot : $148.11)

   JdQd4s4dTd

Showdown
Hero: shows AsAh (two pair, Aces and Fours)
AndyGarsia: shows AdKd (a Royal Flush)
AndyGarsia collected $146.41 from pot

Summary
Total pot $148.41 | Rake $2
Board  JdQd4s4dTd
Seat 1: Roeleke333 (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 2: ZoLoToI_LoL$ (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 3: Hero showed AsAh and lost with two pair, Aces and Fours
Seat 4: marcoregoluf folded before Flop (didnt bet)
Seat 5: AndyGarsia showed AdKd and won ($146.41) with a Royal Flush
Seat 6: Littlengland (button) folded before Flop (didnt bet)

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 Last edit: 07/11/2011 18:16

GoTuNk   Chile. Nov 07 2011 20:33. Posts 2860

I honestly have no clue what to do. Also don't post results.

 Last edit: 07/11/2011 20:34

rememp   Canada. Nov 07 2011 22:12. Posts 480

as much as this sucks I think you have to fold turn. Well board is paired, I have no idea. Maybe call. This just blows


Rapoza   Brasil. Nov 07 2011 22:19. Posts 1612

--- Nuked ---

Pouncer Style 4 the win 

Stroggoz   New Zealand. Nov 07 2011 22:31. Posts 5290

prob start by checking flop.

One of 3 non decent human beings on a site of 5 people with between 2-3 decent human beings 

vlseph   United States. Nov 08 2011 01:18. Posts 3026


  On November 07 2011 21:31 Stroggoz wrote:
prob start by checking flop.



hmm i disagree but i think turn fold is fine although i'm not sure if check/calling is better.

The only hands a nit balances in his range are the nuts, the second nuts, and the third nuts. 

el_tilon   Canada. Nov 08 2011 01:39. Posts 296

check/fold turn imo, you are too deep to bet all your money with only one pair. also if you call the turn, you are in a bad shape on the river, so I prefer fold in this spot

THE TILTMONKEY MASTER 

Oly   United Kingdom. Nov 08 2011 06:05. Posts 3585


  On November 07 2011 21:31 Stroggoz wrote:
prob start by checking flop.

Researchers used brain scans to show that when straight men looked at pictures of women in bikinis, areas of the brain that normally light up in anticipation of using tools, like spanners and screwdrivers, were activated. 

auffenpuffer   Finland. Nov 08 2011 07:35. Posts 1429

If we check the flop, what is our plan for the hand? to check / call 3 streets?


xicotaSLB   Portugal. Nov 08 2011 07:36. Posts 1128

thing is he has KK in is range, if i c/f and he bets KK its setting money on fire... just an awful spot but oh well cant be that bad since ive seen many regs spazz this deep at these stakes..


SpasticInk   Sweden. Nov 08 2011 12:12. Posts 6298

Not sure what I do here, pretty gross spot. But river is foldable, for sure.


Minsk   United States. Nov 08 2011 15:15. Posts 1558

dont like the way you played this, think i either c/c flop or b/f turn

he doesnt show up with KK too often when he shoves, QQ AdKx AdKd JJ AdQx are bigger parts of his range i think


Syntax   United States. Nov 08 2011 19:26. Posts 4415

i'd bet like 2.25/7 on flop

wut wut wutLast edit: 08/11/2011 19:27

TalentedTom    Canada. Nov 08 2011 21:32. Posts 20070

this is an incredibly tough spot, i dont blame u for going broke

for anyone who says check, you cant pot control OOP when villian has you beat, him having position means hes gonna fk us up whenever he wants unless we somehow hero fold, i suppose in this particular spot we would be able to find a river fold quite easily, however im not sure thats the more profitable play

Our deepest fear is not that we are inadequate. Our deepest fear is that we are powerful beyond measure. It is our light not our darkness that most frightens us and as we let our own lights shine we unconsciously give other people permision to do the same 

SugoGosu   Korea (South). Dec 09 2011 02:06. Posts 1793

idk i might be a super nit, but how is this a tough spot? We have AA, no re-draws to a stronger hand, and the only thing we beat on the turn is random AK and KK. Once he ships it on the turn, I really can't see him doing this with worse than KK (and that's such a small range of JJ/QQ/KK/AA that calls a 4bet vs UTG raiser)

Say this outloud! Why was six afraid of seven?......Because Seven Eight Nine 

TalentedTom    Canada. Dec 09 2011 09:44. Posts 20070


  On December 09 2011 01:06 SugoGosu wrote:
idk i might be a super nit, but how is this a tough spot? We have AA, no re-draws to a stronger hand, and the only thing we beat on the turn is random AK and KK. Once he ships it on the turn, I really can't see him doing this with worse than KK (and that's such a small range of JJ/QQ/KK/AA that calls a 4bet vs UTG raiser)



if thats his turn range its a clear call...

Our deepest fear is not that we are inadequate. Our deepest fear is that we are powerful beyond measure. It is our light not our darkness that most frightens us and as we let our own lights shine we unconsciously give other people permision to do the same 

SugoGosu   Korea (South). Dec 09 2011 13:53. Posts 1793

How is that ever a call? Looks like easy fold to me

Say this outloud! Why was six afraid of seven?......Because Seven Eight NineLast edit: 09/12/2011 13:55

TalentedTom    Canada. Dec 09 2011 14:40. Posts 20070


  On December 09 2011 12:53 SugoGosu wrote:
How is that ever a call? Looks like easy fold to me




Board: Qd Jd 4s 4d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.017% 41.96% 03.06% 240 17.50 { AhAs }
Hand 1: 54.983% 51.92% 03.06% 297 17.50 { JJ+ }



Please run the math before making a 2nd post which contributes nothing


on that note - even vs the NUT range which includes only AKdd, and JJ-AA this is a super easy call

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.289% 39.45% 02.84% 243 17.50 { AhAs }
Hand 1: 57.711% 54.87% 02.84% 338 17.50 { JJ+, AdKd }

Our deepest fear is not that we are inadequate. Our deepest fear is that we are powerful beyond measure. It is our light not our darkness that most frightens us and as we let our own lights shine we unconsciously give other people permision to do the same 

TalentedTom    Canada. Dec 09 2011 14:41. Posts 20070

didn't think this would be such an easy call, thought owuld be a lot closer, but this is a snap call ;-0

Our deepest fear is not that we are inadequate. Our deepest fear is that we are powerful beyond measure. It is our light not our darkness that most frightens us and as we let our own lights shine we unconsciously give other people permision to do the same 

TalentedTom    Canada. Dec 09 2011 14:44. Posts 20070

That's also vs the worst possible range immaginable, if we add AK and assume he floats only when he has a diamond (which is a semi-reasonable assumption) it looks like

Board: Qd Jd 4s 4d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.179% 46.97% 02.21% 372 17.50 { AhAs }
Hand 1: 50.821% 48.61% 02.21% 385 17.50 { JJ+, AdKd, AcKd, AdKc, AdKh, AdKs, AhKd, AsKd }

Our deepest fear is not that we are inadequate. Our deepest fear is that we are powerful beyond measure. It is our light not our darkness that most frightens us and as we let our own lights shine we unconsciously give other people permision to do the same 

BlackRain79   Thailand. Dec 09 2011 21:36. Posts 51

Pretty gross spot. I'd probably just check the turn here. I have no idea what worse hands call. Pretty sure KK might even fold. I might actually just check this flop as well and turn it into a 2 street game.

www.blackrain79.comLast edit: 09/12/2011 21:36

YoMeR   United States. Dec 14 2011 16:58. Posts 12435

Hero: raises $5 to $7.25

after this we have to be so sure we are beat if we are folding at any point in the hand. We could find a close fold here vs some opponents but I say just ship it in imo...people aren't going to play perfectly against us and can easily make big mistakes and stack off with worse. bet/bet/shove imo.

if it did get to this particular river obviously check/fold is the play but even on this turn I think we are going to have to stack it here almost always. I wouldn't feel too bad about it if he shows us a flush QQ/JJ

eZ Life. 

TimDawg    United States. Dec 23 2011 10:29. Posts 10197

I bet smaller on flop, 8ish and go with that same sizing on turn with the intention of probably folding if he shoves then. Once you bet this big on the turn tho, I don't think we can ever find a fold

online bob is actually a pretty smart person, not at all like the creepy fucker that sits in the sofa telling me he does nasty shit to me when im asleep - pinball 

PplusAD   Germany. Dec 23 2011 23:24. Posts 7180

Villian is a Nit reg at Nl25 in case u didnt read ops first post
A shove on the turn by a nitty reg with almost no fold equity after op bets turn = JJ,QQ or AKs close to 100% imo

on this turn action i just cant see a single hand we beat !


TToms stove stuff is nice and all but obsiously its flawed in the way that it assumes he has KK,AA here as often as JJ,QQ or a flush which imo is far from the truth in reality.
How often will a nitty reg shove in for more than 100bb with KK on this turn ?
imo close to zero %

With KK this type villian will be damn happy to fold turn or in case he drunk his superhero energy drink call and hope for a check/check river

so i think all the AA (obviously since we have AA ourselfes), KK and even the KxKd (Since NIt player range for raising turns) combos are a lot less likley than JJ , QQ or AdKd


I have played quite a lot with some Nl25 regs in the not too far away past and allthough some of them do try to ballance their pf ranges in strange ways (calling polarized instead of raising polraized ^^) and will get caught with "thrash" in small pots ocassionally
when they play this way in big pots = they always have it !

U see what i did there with A8 ? He 4 bets and there we go insta jam A8 : ---booooom -- . hahahaha ( Krantz)Last edit: 23/12/2011 23:49

rememp   Canada. Dec 24 2011 01:50. Posts 480

This is a sick spot. TT is definitely right though. You have to bet flop, and if he calls, I think check calling turn is best, then river is a fold in this case and a call if we fill up.

That's really the only way to play this hand. Just a bad spot.


insan3   Bulgaria. Jan 22 2012 06:50. Posts 6


  On December 24 2011 00:50 rememp wrote:
This is a sick spot. TT is definitely right though. You have to bet flop, and if he calls, I think check calling turn is best, then river is a fold in this case and a call if we fill up.

That's really the only way to play this hand. Just a bad spot.



You say c/c turn ... Why you will call the turn if you intend to fold any river instead your two outs came ? you making your Aces a drowing hand out of psn with two outs. This plan is not very good.


Chewits   United Kingdom. Jan 22 2012 08:55. Posts 2539

Take note of this play and move on.

I think you can fold turn here a high % because a nitty reg is never bluffing in this spot this deep imo. When he shoves this turn, your over pair is gonna be crushed so often.. Vs different players you can warrent a call, but not vs someone who rarely 3bets and rarely calls 4bets.

I am a degen. Do not believe in any of my advice. 

n0rthf4ce    United States. Jan 25 2012 02:16. Posts 8119

spending time dissecting hands such as these will not yield you greater profits or loss either way.

www.cardrunners.com 

ingenuity   United States. Jan 25 2012 17:04. Posts 4

+1 on don't post results. On the hand, probably fold on the turn. You don't have any redraw to the flush and you're super deep. hands like those go way down in value


insan3   Bulgaria. Feb 04 2012 18:58. Posts 6

I think fold on the turn is nice, becouse of the deep staks and because the reg Nit will shove on turn with worse almost never.
With 100bb staks I'm callingstation.


TalentedTom    Canada. Feb 05 2012 17:37. Posts 20070


  On February 04 2012 17:58 insan3 wrote:
I think fold on the turn is nice, becouse of the deep staks and because the reg Nit will shove on turn with worse almost never.
With 100bb staks I'm callingstation.




you are making a lot of mistakes thinking like this

Our deepest fear is not that we are inadequate. Our deepest fear is that we are powerful beyond measure. It is our light not our darkness that most frightens us and as we let our own lights shine we unconsciously give other people permision to do the same 

 



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