NL1k: Plan for worst river

Villan is a winning loose aggro reg
Haven't played with him for quite some time
No specific read, ask for any stats you want

Few hands earlier I flatted AA on sb vs him, c/r Kxx, bet blank turn and he folded

Submitted by : Soprano

Seat 7 is the button
Seat 3: Player3 $2018.50 USD - VPIP: 33, PFR: 27, 3B: 13, AF: 2.9, Hands: 1945
Seat 4: Player4 $1000.00 USD - VPIP: 27, PFR: 23, 3B: 10, AF: 5.8, Hands: 244
Seat 6: Player6 $1418.25 USD - VPIP: 29, PFR: 24, 3B: 7, AF: 1.8, Hands: 11715
Seat 7: Player7 $1107.00 USD - VPIP: 32, PFR: 28, 3B: 15, AF: 2.0, Hands: 23230
Seat 8: Player8 $1025.50 USD - VPIP: 20, PFR: 15, 3B: 5, AF: 3.0, Hands: 56518
Seat 9: Hero $1364.00 USD
Player8 posts small blind [$5.00 USD].
Hero posts big blind [$10.00 USD].

Holecards
Dealt to Hero [ ]
Player3 folds
Player4 folds
Player6 folds
Player7 raises [$20.00 USD]
Player8 folds
Hero calls [$10.00 USD]

Flop (Pot : $45.00)

   
Hero checks
Player7 bets [$35.00 USD]
Hero raises [$110.00 USD]
Player7 calls [$75.00 USD]

Turn (Pot : $265.00)

   
Hero bets [$210.00 USD]
Player7 calls [$210.00 USD]

River (Pot : $685.00)

   
Hero ??

Chk/fold is the best option imo. How likely is he to turn j10 into a bluff? How bout kq? Without knowledge of that I almost always chk/fold. This really isn't too exploitable because if I know his bet freq is super high I will chk my entire range here and then chk/call hands like these or c/r flushes.

agreement

Yup, chk/fold

I would shove especially if I don't have history with him, if he calls and you lose oh well at least you showed him that you can be retarded, he will remember.

If you check and he checks behind he will remember you as cautious player, that's not good when you are a cautious player.

Yeah I guess c/f works, because even tho I think you are still ahead of his range its pretty much impossible for you to have a bluff here (ofc that doesnt always stop ppl from calling).
Also nobody likes a bigger 3b on the flop?

On August 29 2011 03:54 locoo wrote: I would shove especially if I don't have history with him, if he calls and you lose oh well at least you showed him that you can be retarded, he will remember. If you check and he checks behind he will remember you as cautious player, that's not good when you are a cautious player.

win imo, poker is not abuot money, its about who is the biggest maniac

in all seriousness when ur range is stronger then his its nothing wrong with blockbet/folding a hand like this like 50$, if he thinks ur good he will go wtf and probably just call to see what ur doing with worse hands since its an obvious "induce spot" i dont expect him to like insta shove 100% with bluffs and stuff so u have to talk urself into a call, so i think u can betsmall/fold

and if u think he is a type of player who will turn everything into a bluff against this its cool starting to do this with strong flushes aswell cuz it will induce lighter valueshoves + bluffs

(this probably works better with my image since im doing all kinds of crazy shit all the time and people really dont know what im up to most of the time so i can get away with these type of blockbetspots pretty often cuz people think "longple has a plan with this and he is wierd, he probably does this to induce... sigh call/fold"

instead of check/folding urself to something u dont know if hes bluffing or not, if i blockbet i atleast win against the hands i beat instead of check/folding to alot of them

and since people are machines and pretty bad at this game, and cant think on their own they wont know what ur up to by playing wierd, since they havent seen it in a instructional video yet

I have a flush. I'm shipping it.

On August 29 2011 13:46 AndrewSong wrote: I have a flush. I'm shipping it.

Hehehe this could be interesting....

I like the blockbet/fold line

On December 15 2011 00:45 Fayth wrote: I like the blockbet/fold line

Villan is a winning loose aggro reg

O_O

On August 29 2011 13:46 AndrewSong wrote: I have a flush. I'm shipping it.

do u ever do anything else than fold after u check this river?

Can you guys give me a quick rundown of what you are estimating to be his range pf and on each street here?

My first thought was c/f but after reading longple's thought process, I am in agreement with the blockbet/fold line. I don't think most regs would turn a made hand into a bluff very often although I could for sure be wrong. It would feel like we were getting owned a lot if he raises river and I might talk myself into calling vs some regs but prob not most

Betting the river

is

Terrible.

wtf

Betting $50 seems like a slightly more expensive version of checking.

Combos of potential semi bluffs that missed:

65cc 67cc 89cc T9dd T9cc T9ss. That's 6. You guys who wanna block/fold seem crazy to me. It's way easier to balance a chk/give up range vs a chk/snap range than it is to do this silly block betting when it's only good for 3 value hands in our range--66, QJ and KQ. Can't understand why you guys would want to try to construct a strategy in order to aid you when you are in such a rare spot to have one of these hands and to have the board run out such that you believe you can't profitably shove. Makes more sense to just close your eyes and shove blindly (sorta like a merge I guess) with these few specific holdings than to try to maintain balance with this strategy.

I agree actually really strongly w/ Jonny on this one.

my plan is to now tip the dealer on this river

First interesting hand dicussion in lp.net since ages, i am actually not convinced hah both have appealing arguments

on longlples line: