AT in EP with 20bb stack - Page 2

stats are so meaningless over a 30 hand period that you're best off ignoring them. mp flatting usually means one of two things, 1: aces, or 2: hand he doesnt want to lay down but isnt comfortable shipping (i.e. suited kqj combo.) people flatting aq+ is just really uncommon from his spot, because aq+ is such a clear and obvious reship. I mean, flatting kqj combos is also bad - but it's a much more common mistake. I'd honestly be more surprised to find MP having ak here than to find him having 9Ts, and when his range is that wide, he's gonna fold to your reship a big % of the time. hell, based on my experience with these limits, MP is occasionally gonna call your reship with a lower ace or some king-hand - and definitely pp's lower than 10s.

as for the shove from bb, im not doing exactmath but I think you have to win like 30% to break even - if his range is aj+ tt+ you're actually there. but even a tight range includes 77+, and I'd guess you were in the 40-45%+ area against his actual range. that is an absolutely huge edge. sucks if mp trapped you, but it's so unlikely that you just gotta pay him off if it's the case.

a regular winning mtt player will clearly 3bet anything > A10s here.

excluding pairs from 6s n down

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