AA hand against tight player

Villian here is 11/8 over about 150 hands. This line looks kind of strong to me and I don't know if I should fold or call.

Submitted by : K40Cheddar

***** Hand History for Game 23495617111 ***** (Full Tilt)
$10.00 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Monday, August 30, 08:39:16 ET 2010
Table Mach 10 (Real Money)
Seat 9 is the button
Seat 1: Tokoloshe1 ( $5.58 USD )
Seat 2: Keeperocards ( $10.05 USD )
Seat 3: hooksvsbird ( $10.00 USD )
Seat 4: nicoquirce ( $7.55 USD )
Seat 5: ohmboy ( $4.00 USD )
Seat 6: Shugana ( $12.90 USD )
Seat 7: xiaoma65 ( $13.17 USD )
Seat 8: jontejay ( $1.19 USD )
Seat 9: K40cheddar ( $10.15 USD )
Tokoloshe1 posts small blind $0.05 USD.
Keeperocards posts big blind $0.10 USD.

Holecards
Dealt to K40cheddar
hooksvsbird folds
nicoquirce folds
ohmboy folds
Shugana folds
xiaoma65 folds
jontejay folds
K40cheddar raises $0.40 USD
Tokoloshe1 folds
Keeperocards calls $0.30 USD

Flop (Pot : $0.85)

   
Keeperocards checks
K40cheddar bets $0.70 USD
Keeperocards calls $0.70 USD

Turn (Pot : $2.25)

   
Keeperocards checks
K40cheddar bets $2.00 USD
Keeperocards raises $8.95 USD
K40cheddar

i would fold very very fast.

i would fold faster than zulu.

i'd fold slower than both of you

I'd timebank fold because fuck him.

i'd timebank shove because fuck money.

I would take my time and then probably fold.

Why are you making quick decisions. Think and react.

Just to help a beginner out, can someone explain their thought process for this hand? Are we assuming that most 11/7 nits will 3bet overpairs, or would not raise the turn bet in position?

Which hands are valuebetting here, given a 11 VPIP. Are 89 and 67 possible, or are we just worried about sets?

I think the basic assumption is that a tight player would almost always call with a hand like a flushdraw/9x and never turn these hands into semi-bluffs.

On the other hand he will shove almost every hand that beats us (like 88, 89, 67 etc.)

On August 31 2010 13:58 Gim wrote: Just to help a beginner out, can someone explain their thought process for this hand? Are we assuming that most 11/7 nits will 3bet overpairs, or would not raise the turn bet in position? Which hands are valuebetting here, given a 11 VPIP. Are 89 and 67 possible, or are we just worried about sets?

pretty much what spasticink said. nits aren't taking a whole lot of hands to the turn and the hands we beat are 1pair type hands that he isn't going to be raising with.

On August 31 2010 13:58 Gim wrote: Just to help a beginner out, can someone explain their thought process for this hand? Are we assuming that most 11/7 nits will 3bet overpairs, or would not raise the turn bet in position? Which hands are valuebetting here, given a 11 VPIP. Are 89 and 67 possible, or are we just worried about sets?

Sets only, never 89/67.

realize that he has you beat here 100% of the time.

ur equity in this hand is probably somewhere between 0% and 5%

doesn't look like the odds are in your favor. Unless you're corellian.

On August 31 2010 14:34 Zalfor wrote: realize that he has you beat here 100% of the time. ur equity in this hand is probably somewhere between 0% and 5% doesn't look like the odds are in your favor. Unless you're corellian.

nice reference

this kid has a set just fold

he might have 89s/67s in his range if he's a good nit. Also 11/8 over 150 hands can become much looser over a larger sample, but yea if he can bluff/semi-bluff here he would be a pretty sick nit.

u guys srs? I suck

On August 31 2010 18:39 sTrAtO wrote: u guys srs? I suck

are you considering calling? bcuz i sort of am. might be bad though i dunno.

i would shove cacth and A on the river like barry greenstein

Not a fan of snap folding in these positions. More of a fan of tank folding with no other info.

fold pf, just to be on the safe side

dont listen to any of these assholes here. reraise.

On August 31 2010 21:42 JSquids wrote: dont listen to any of these assholes here. reraise.

this is an nl10 FULLRING NITREG. raise is suicide.

fold bottom set

On September 01 2010 00:00 Venrae wrote: Show nested quote + On August 31 2010 21:42 JSquids wrote: dont listen to any of these assholes here. reraise. this is an nl10 FULLRING NITREG. raise is suicide.

you understand opponent pratically raised him all-in. if he is going w/ his aces here then its to shove (lol whats left like 1 dollar?)

but as said earlier, I fold this without crying to much about it.

Check turn because a 11/8 nit will have a pp here like 90% of the time and will not give you 3 streets of value with an unimproved pp

i would shove for info

On September 01 2010 08:28 T8Suited wrote: Check turn because a 11/8 nit will have a pp here like 90% of the time and will not give you 3 streets of value with an unimproved pp

do not check turn.

betting turn seems fine to me as well, I wouldn't call the XR though.

On September 01 2010 04:52 SpasticInk wrote: Show nested quote + On September 01 2010 00:00 Venrae wrote:   On August 31 2010 21:42 JSquids wrote: dont listen to any of these assholes here. reraise. this is an nl10 FULLRING NITREG. raise is suicide. you understand opponent pratically raised him all-in. if he is going w/ his aces here then its to shove (lol whats left like 1 dollar?) but as said earlier, I fold this without crying to much about it.

I missed that =[

I'm bad at sarcasm in advice threads

set sounds about right. Just fold...fast or slow...or medium speed...or fast.

On August 31 2010 18:03 zulu_nation8 wrote: he might have 89s/67s in his range if he's a good nit. Also 11/8 over 150 hands can become much looser over a larger sample, but yea if he can bluff/semi-bluff here he would be a pretty sick nit.

Good nit 3 bets those hands no?

not necessarily he could be 3betting broadways for value and call with SC hands which is probably bad for his nittiness, or he could 3bet only top value hands and Ax Kx off suit as bluffs. Hero would have to see him show something down to assume anything.

call and when he shoves river, then fully believe in his set and muck it.

best play overall imo.

snap fold, tight players never bluff, he has set %100 of the time

tight players only set mine, that's all, so fold

fold as fast as u can, he is never bluffing this turn! The 150 hand sample should have said enough, people dont bluff this turn with those stats

There's no way to tell what do do here without actual reads on this player-PT stats don't cut it.

If you've seen him act this way with over pairs- it's an auto call.

If you've seen him bully out looser players post flop- it's a maybe call.

The no read default play is to assume he has a set and fold.

Is this player playing back at your bullying of him? If so he could be doing this with much weaker hands than normal.

Don't believe stats too much, a lot of players can change gears and will be manipulating their table image to exploit you ( OK maybe not at this level).

On September 02 2010 18:01 Fox wrote: call and when he shoves river, then fully believe in his set and muck it. best play overall imo.

You're calling all but a dollar of your stack and folding when he river shoves? I think I'd rather just shove the extra dollar on the turn.

As played fold

or call because fuck that guy, spike ace on river.

imo he has AA too...

jk

lolfr

Check fold flop.

You want to learn to play exploitive poker, not optimal poker

yo yo check out baluga whale theorem homies

i'd rage hard, then think "fuck it it's NL10" then jam over his stupidly played set.

On August 31 2010 18:52 joLin wrote: Show nested quote + On August 31 2010 18:39 sTrAtO wrote: u guys srs? I suck are you considering calling? bcuz i sort of am. might be bad though i dunno.

really? id be scared to call because he would probably reraise AA KK QQ AKs pf, I'd say he most likely has a set or possibly a combo draw. either way im not too comfortable =/

"Usually a borderline call makes us lose more money than win in the long run"
plus this isnt even close, mb in 6max, but on fullring he has us beat ridicously often

how much % 3 bet?

On September 06 2010 15:08 Snaggle wrote: There's no way to tell what do do here without actual reads on this player

usually i agree with this but i think based on the info op gave we can say this is a fold with a pretty high degree of confidence.