poker tourneys vs lottery argument.

Alright, i and a friend had this argument and i need the community's help lol, cos i am so clueless in maths.

if you were to play the lottery or the wsop any number of times, which would you have the higher chance of winning?
could some people throw some numbers around and help me out please, much appreciated.

1 in ~6000ish (depends on the field) at the wsop assuming no one has an edge (its easier because you should have some edge there)
1 in millions on lottery depending on which lottery

Lottery obv

lottery for sure

in the WSOP ME you will need to win something like 15+ coin flips over the duration of the tournament, the odds of that are astranomical.

In the lottery youve only got to guess 6 numbers out of a possible 40 or something, which isnt that hard.

it depends, is Jason Ho registered in the main event? if so... lottery.

lol i thought id save op before the trolls step in

I'll take away a lot of peoples potential replies by saying, "They are both 50/50".

main event obv, unless you happen to be seated with nanonoko, in that case better try the lottery.

Yeah they're both 50/50, so same. You either win or you don't.

I'd take WSOP ME, but i'd make my daughter play the lottery.

On August 16 2010 13:56 Twisted wrote: Yeah they're both 50/50, so same. You either win or you don't.

yeah but you have to spend $10k to play the ME and youve got 1 chance of winning.

if you spent $10k on lottery tickets youd have 10,000x as many chances of winning it as you do the ME.

You still win or not, so still 50/50 imo.

On August 16 2010 14:34 Twisted wrote: You still win or not, so still 50/50 imo.

Unless Phil ivey is playing that tourney - then it's more like 10, 000, 000 : 1

But then Nanonoko plays the lottery and it's 1:1 again!

lol

On August 16 2010 14:34 Twisted wrote: You still win or not, so still 50/50 imo.

no its like 90/10 if you have 10,000 lottery tickets.

infact it might be 100% coz u can probably get every combination possible for $10,000

On August 16 2010 12:40 byrnesam wrote: lottery for sure in the WSOP ME you will need to win something like 15+ coin flips over the duration of the tournament, the odds of that are astranomical. In the lottery youve only got to guess 6 numbers out of a possible 40 or something, which isnt that hard.

byrnesam.

seriously now...!

here in brazil (1 U$ = 1.80 R$) you have to guess 6 numbers out of 60, that means your chance of winning is 1out of 50,000,000
the ticket cost R$1.50.
with U$10,000 (R$18,000) you can buy 12,000 tickets, so your chances now are 1 out of 4,667

in the WSOP ME considering a field of 7,000 and that nobody has an edge the chances are the same for everyone = 1 out of 7,000, so if are a newbie to poker your chances are worse and if you are a pro your chances are a lot better obv

you also have to consider that most of the time the lottery prize is smaller than the WSOP ME first place prize

I would call it a tie unless I'm Phil Ivey lol

this is far too complicated to work out
but the odds are approximately 2-1

The odds of winning the main event have a lot to do with how good you are which makes the question almost impossible to answer.

Not being able to calculate drastically lowers your chance to win the ME, so if I was you I'd stick to the lottery.

Also wtf, 1.5$ for a lottery ticket? Here they cost 8-9$ and the prize is mostly 1-1.5mil

the odds of winning the lottery have a lot to do with how good you are too

ticket here cost $1.5 and the prize is often $2mill+

in reais of course (brazilian money)
1 dollar = 1.80 reais
there was this one time the prize was $60mill+
crazy shit

On August 16 2010 16:30 kemo wrote: Not being able to calculate drastically lowers your chance to win the ME, so if I was you I'd stick to the lottery. Also wtf, 1.5$ for a lottery ticket? Here they cost 8-9$ and the prize is mostly 1-1.5mil

lol @ live lottery.

lottery is just superior way to invest your money

Fifty fifty cuz u either win or u don't lol

On August 16 2010 15:02 Twisted wrote: But then Nanonoko plays the lottery and it's 1:1 again!

lol

win the lotto use money to enter wsop and win that.

profit.

60/40

the answer is 43

i think you're all correct

Time to grind the lottery.

you can win over 100million if you win the lottery. can only win 10mill for the main event. Ez decision. Also a lady just moved to las vegas that has won the lottery like 4 times. Source: http://www.abc15.com/dpp/news/nationa...e_35170322-ews-SHNS-wmar1278098941198

So obv my answer is lottery

On August 17 2010 00:30 thewh00sel wrote: Also a lady just moved to las vegas that has won the lottery like 4 times. Source: http://www.abc15.com/dpp/news/nationa...e_35170322-ews-SHNS-wmar1278098941198

If this is anything other than laundering money from illegal winnings on the lotto ill be very surprised.

congrats op on achieving lvl 74 trolladin

On August 17 2010 00:36 byrnesam wrote: Show nested quote + On August 17 2010 00:30 thewh00sel wrote: Also a lady just moved to las vegas that has won the lottery like 4 times. Source: http://www.abc15.com/dpp/news/nationa...e_35170322-ews-SHNS-wmar1278098941198 If this is anything other than laundering money from illegal winnings on the lotto ill be very surprised.

She's 63 she obv just wants to play HIGH STAKES BINGO the rest of her life

I like the thought of him eagerly opening his first thread with a big smile on his face all ready to prove his friend wrong, and then his face dropping as he reads the responses.

well considering he coulndt figure it out before posting here I dont think he lost much other than gaining a few math calculations and the impact of the nanonoko effect

fuck the lotto and the ME

take ur 10k and go all-in on red or black 10 times

On August 17 2010 07:50 kaboom wrote: fuck the lotto and the ME take ur 10k and go all-in on red or black 10 times

obv doubling up everytime u end up with $10milli

fuck that shits WAY easier than the ME

On August 17 2010 08:29 byrnesam wrote: Show nested quote + On August 17 2010 07:50 kaboom wrote: fuck the lotto and the ME take ur 10k and go all-in on red or black 10 times obv doubling up everytime u end up with $10milli fuck that shits WAY easier than the ME

only 10 flips instead of 15. +EV imo

there was one time in Aus where the EV of the lottery was positive (b/c prizes carried over if there was no winner previously). 3 guys decide to buy every combination of the lottery tickets. However, it was apparently incredibly stressful to manage the massive bundle of paper tickets, worrying about whether they actually managed to buy all combinations, what if they lose the winning one, etcetcetc.

They ended up winning and coming out ++, but they learned never to undertake the operation again.

On August 18 2010 04:10 Uptown wrote: there was one time in Aus where the EV of the lottery was positive (b/c prizes carried over if there was no winner previously). 3 guys decide to buy every combination of the lottery tickets. However, it was apparently incredibly stressful to manage the massive bundle of paper tickets, worrying about whether they actually managed to buy all combinations, what if they lose the winning one, etcetcetc. They ended up winning and coming out ++, but they learned never to undertake the operation again.

You might be levelling me, but isn't any number of lottery tickets +ev? You don't need all of them.

If they want 100% victory they do...

nice first post

Fudyann, I guess you levelled yourself. It's not because it's +ev that you are going to win money...
here if it is +ev, it means that the (ticket_price)*(number combinaison)<(prices cumulated).

but there is like a flaw in this. If another guy had the same idea... you get price/2. no ? obviously a guy can also win without buying every tickets. so it seems kinda dumb to me and not even sure it is really +ev.

just imagine buying like hundreds of thousands if not mirrons of dollars worth of lotto tickets just to lose to some random granny who decided to pick up a ticket at her local 7 eleven. huge lawls imo.