$3 45manSNG FT decision

Is this push a good push given the stacksizes of everyone

Submitted by : halflinggenius

PokerStars Game #45630577470: Tournament #283660478, $3.00+$0.25 USD Holdem No Limit - Level XI (600/1200) - 2010/06/17 9:00:54 PT [2010/06/17 12:00:54 ET]
Table 283660478 5 9-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 3: Studepep (3997 in chips)
Seat 4: Hero (15696 in chips)
Seat 5: teradojo (9558 in chips)
Seat 6: garlopa7 (6840 in chips)
Seat 7: dagolu (11497 in chips)
Seat 8: abejeras4D (10475 in chips)
Seat 9: totoetlolo (9437 in chips)
Studepep: posts the ante 75
Hero: posts the ante 75
teradojo: posts the ante 75
garlopa7: posts the ante 75
dagolu: posts the ante 75
abejeras4D: posts the ante 75
totoetlolo: posts the ante 75
dagolu: posts small blind 600
abejeras4D: posts big blind 1200

Holecards(Odds)
Dealt to Hero
totoetlolo: folds
Studepep has timed out
Studepep: folds
Studepep is sitting out
Studepep has returned
Hero: raises 14421 to 15621 and is all-in
teradojo: folds
garlopa7: folds
dagolu: folds
abejeras4D: calls 9200 and is all-in
Uncalled bet (5221) returned to Hero

Flop(Odds) (Pot : $21,925.00)

   

Turn(Odds) (Pot : $21,925.00)

   

River (Pot : $21,925.00)

   

Showdown
abejeras4D: shows (three of a kind, Queens)
Hero: shows (a pair of Kings)
abejeras4D collected 21925 from pot

Summary
Total pot 21925 | Rake 0
Board  
Seat 3: Studepep folded before Flop (didnt bet)
Seat 4: Hero showed and lost with a pair of Kings
Seat 5: teradojo folded before Flop (didnt bet)
Seat 6: garlopa7 (button) folded before Flop (didnt bet)
Seat 7: dagolu (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 8: abejeras4D (big blind) showed and won (21925) with three of a kind, Queens
Seat 9: totoetlolo folded before Flop (didnt bet)

Do not like.

awful decision. just fold. this is a really bad spot to steal with this hand.

Ewwwwwww.

I push there too, and I'm probably the only person who actually plays 45 mans other than you. It's 7 handed, which means you just got ITM, in 45 mans, people have to call very tight to climb the payout ranks, so if you have a read that toto dagolu and abejeras aren't going to snap you with like A4o or something retarded, then you can push because you're picking up 2kish chips for a steal. Without reads, you can definitely fold and find a better spot later.

Actually shit, for some reason thought you were on button, kinda hungover lol. I'd push from the button, not from hijack.

qj yes, k6 no

Hell no!!

no, sir.

it was a good shove, just unlucky that he catched the river

On June 17 2010 15:49 Fujikura wrote: Actually shit, for some reason thought you were on button, kinda hungover lol. I'd push from the button, not from hijack.

You can't even push from the button equitably.

Yeah don't like this play at all

On June 18 2010 15:01 jchysk wrote: Show nested quote + On June 17 2010 15:49 Fujikura wrote: Actually shit, for some reason thought you were on button, kinda hungover lol. I'd push from the button, not from hijack. You can't even push from the button equitably.

so if the small blind folds 90% of the time and big blind 80% of the time, this is unprofitable?
cool story bro

On June 18 2010 15:01 jchysk wrote: Show nested quote + On June 17 2010 15:49 Fujikura wrote: Actually shit, for some reason thought you were on button, kinda hungover lol. I'd push from the button, not from hijack. You can't even push from the button equitably.

I push from the button every time because K blocker is pretty strong. This is only a 45 man tournament, maybe you should use SNG Wizard and check it yourself if you don't think it's a push from the button.

i think it's pretty bad in that based on the blinds and sizes, if you just sit around for 2 or 3 orbits half the table will be gone and in that amount of time you will a) have better spots to steal b) get a premium hand or c) simply get blinded down to about around 10k and still be in fine position to win this thing.

On June 18 2010 22:42 Zep wrote: Show nested quote + On June 18 2010 15:01 jchysk wrote:   On June 17 2010 15:49 Fujikura wrote: Actually shit, for some reason thought you were on button, kinda hungover lol. I'd push from the button, not from hijack. You can't even push from the button equitably. so if the small blind folds 90% of the time and big blind 80% of the time, this is unprofitable? cool story bro

I went through and did some of the calculations. With 90% and 80% fold rates for SB and BB respectively:
ICM if you fold: ~18.0%
ICM if you win blinds: ~19.4%
ICM if called by SB 10% and BB 20%:
.709 + .713 + 1.482 + 1.284 + 13.968 = 18.156, although I'm not including BB overcall.
So, I may be wrong if those are the ranges, but for a $3 45-man that's a $0.21 equity differential which is probably lost when you do the rest of the math. But anyway since it's at best a break even play on the button it's a clear fold on the cutoff which answers the original question.

oh
well given the sizes of stacks after u, this is pretty borderline

could someone with SngWizard please post the correct pushing ranges for button and hijack? My gut feeling is K6 is probably a push from btn and a fold from the hijack and it's close.

not bad is horrible!!!

i dont mind that to steal blinds or something from button or HJ ut that early is really bad

I'd fold but it doesn't look thaat bad. way more common to not push enough than to push too much in a situation like this. absolutely push from button tho.

I play these a little. IMO this is pretty bad. With your chipstack you will get 100% better opportunities Don't bother wasting chips here especially with such decent stacks to act after you

Did any of you catch the fact that there's a 3xBB shortstack about to be BB in 2 hands? That's a huge key in this hand. Nobody behind the hero will call unless they have a very strong hand.

I think that, coupled with the stack sizes of the stacks behind, all in the exploitable range of 7-10BB (large enough to not need to make a desperate call, but not too big), makes this a lot closer than you people think, and a correct push in my view.

On June 21 2010 21:53 Pacifist wrote: Did any of you catch the fact that there's a 3xBB shortstack about to be BB in 2 hands? That's a huge key in this hand. Nobody behind the hero will call unless they have a very strong hand. I think that, coupled with the stack sizes of the stacks behind, all in the exploitable range of 7-10BB (large enough to not need to make a desperate call, but not too big), makes this a lot closer than you people think, and a correct push in my view.

I'd push from maybe CO, prob push BTN, but not from the hijack with these stacks. I agree with what you said though about them almost never calling without at least a decent hand.

Also, not sure if anybody else but me actually plays enough 45 mans to know the payout structure, but we're already ITM, and the next big payout increase is for getting third place, so it's time to pick up chips.

there are way better hands to shove in this situation than K6.

equity wise, you will be called nearly the same amount of time, (like 30%ish here i think v 3 players to go), so u take down a few blinds 70% and have to go with your K6o vs hands that dominate you 30% of the time. Just not worth it.

K6o is only a fine shove with 4bb or blind on blind with less than 14big blinds

bubble doesn't really matter in any $3 45 mans, nobody really plays them to mincash, its first or nothing

inyourdreams I don't get how it being $3 45mans matter, since the payout as a % of the prizepool is the same no matter the stakes...

unless you're saying bubble doesn't matter for all 45man sngs, which is blatantly false.

Also the only hands that are calling that actually dominate you are AA, KK, AK, and MAYBE KQ. K6 has good equity vs all other hands. (Assuming KJ and A6 don't call, which is very reasonable given the shorty)

pacifist if BB has KJ KT A6 they will call in this situation at this level i see it happen a lot

Given that payout increase from 7th to 6th is small in those 45-mans, and BB has second smallest stack on the table
his calling range should not be that tight.

keep in mind that this is 3$ sng. People don't rly understand ranges or icm here. Some wait till they have a fraction of big blind before they decide to move in. Of course idk what was the case here, but style i told about is quite common at these stakes.

lol does anybody here have over even 500 games on $3 45 mans? I have 3k thx. Sick brag! Anyway... totally agree with pacifist and liquid`drone This is super duper ez spin in chair push from button...
Also, inyourdreams, you sound pretty clueless when you say first place or nothing LOL. Maybe in a 180 man, but min cashing is pretty huge in 45 mans when you get 8th place a bunch of times because you are push happy and realize your ROI would be 5-10% higher if you folded a few extra hands on the bubble for those extra buy-ins in min cashes.
Also, for those of you who are saying it's terrible, it's actually not insanely bad unless someone calls with KK or AA. Even if our equity is 30% vs a hand, we're still getting decent pot-odds because dagolu and aberas are never calling us light, that's a fact. They can play nitty and get into top 3 pretty easily. Actually, the more I'm looking at this hand, I am thinking it's a marginal +EV shove just because people's calling ranges should be insanely tight as long as they don't know us too well.
Lets put it this way: With any of the peoples' stacks behind you except for garlopa, my default calling range is TT+ and AQ+. You're picking up 2325 chips for a steal where people really can't call you lightly. I guess I'll sng wiz it now, because you have me pretty curious about it. I'll see what sng wiz has as their default calling ranges also (which should be tight, but probably not nearly as tight as mine because I'm a nit). Hope this information helps a little.

Edit: Can you PM me the actual hand history? Too lazy to fill out all of the info in SNG Wiz lol.

my take on it is, ppl just got in the money and the shorter stacks are gunna be willing to gamble it up to climb. id look for something better. with his big stack there... its like... youre just hoping he doesnt have AQ+

play it a little safer, cause in the event he does wake up with something (like this time), you pretty much loose your strangle-hold on the rest of the tourney... turning a 1st or 2nd place cash into a probable 4th or 5th.

I used SNG Wizard to check this, and adjusting their calling ranges from SNG Wizard's defaults (at least IMHO from my experience) it's a slightly losing push. With Wiz's normal calling ranges (Which are really loose IMHO), it's a relatively big -EV push.