Js Jc by thewh00sel

Submitted by : thewh00sel

PokerStars Game #44208243002: Tournament #2010050382, $1000+$50 USD Holdem No Limit - Level XXII (2000/4000) - 2010/05/16 22:37:59 PT [2010/05/17 1:37:59 ET]
Table 2010050382 208 9-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: paushtero (192515 in chips)
Seat 2: land unter (136241 in chips)
Seat 3: SetTheHookJJ (309125 in chips)
Seat 4: warioman9 (112911 in chips)
Seat 5: FouTight (135012 in chips)
Seat 6: Joey Capp (64291 in chips)
Seat 7: Broomcorn (205655 in chips)
Seat 8: Hero (138396 in chips)
Seat 9: phiIter (179691 in chips)
paushtero: posts the ante 500
land unter: posts the ante 500
SetTheHookJJ: posts the ante 500
warioman9: posts the ante 500
FouTight: posts the ante 500
Joey Capp: posts the ante 500
Broomcorn: posts the ante 500
Hero: posts the ante 500
phiIter: posts the ante 500
FouTight: posts small blind 2000
Joey Capp: posts big blind 4000

Holecards
Dealt to Hero
Broomcorn: folds
Hero: raises 5175 to 9175
phiIter: folds
paushtero: folds
land unter: folds
SetTheHookJJ: folds
warioman9: raises 103236 to 112411 and is all-in
FouTight: folds
Joey Capp: calls 59791 and is all-in
Hero: calls 103236

lol I guess I suck cause I think I'm calling without the side pot

I must be a nit, because I think im folding here alot. Its almost a 30bb shove, plus a 15bb calling a shove. I just hate flipping 3 way. I guess it depends on first shove, on how active he has been, how much 3betting, how much 3bet squeeze shoving etc he has been doing. Im not surprised to see bad players do this with low PPs, but being such a high limit MTT, I really am not sure.

Difficult spot. We could fold and still have workable stack. Its a big gamble, but then again, winning/going deep is all about taking these type of risks.

I gotta have a pretty damn good read that they are both pretty tight to fold this. if joey had 100k as well, I would probably normally fold but here it seems like he is like one third of average or thereabouts and would be happy to call with 99+ and aq so you breakeven against him and are a favourite against warioman.

On May 17 2010 02:24 [GiTM]-Ace wrote: lol I guess I suck cause I think I'm calling without the side pot

in case i was unclear i think im ahead of wario but behind joey's range. sidepot = the overlay of wario's stack versus joey capp's. obviously im calling if it's just the one guy shoving.

lol bingo poker

with all that dead money I don't think I find myself ever folding here. Although I wouldn't really fist pump snap call. I'd prob tank a while, swear a bit then call and pray...

your up against AK / AQ or 22 - TT hands with a loan AK or w/e in there sometimes, this is sick but a must call as long as your playing for the long term

if this is a 1 day live tourney i fold here sometimes and find better spots

On May 17 2010 18:39 inyourdreams wrote: as long as your playing for the long term

On May 17 2010 11:51 thewh00sel wrote: Show nested quote + On May 17 2010 02:24 [GiTM]-Ace wrote: lol I guess I suck cause I think I'm calling without the side pot in case i was unclear i think im ahead of wario but behind joey's range. sidepot = the overlay of wario's stack versus joey capp's. obviously im calling if it's just the one guy shoving.

yea for some reason I thought u were saying You would fold to the original shove but called cause of the good odds lol my bad. I dunno I still think you have to call though tbh. I agree w/eri that I would fold if he had more. I dunno though I think your right that unless he has AK your crushed.( Maybe 10's) I really don't know I think its just to much money to fold. And since your so much ahead of original 3bet I think you'll be be winning atleast that side pot a ton of the time to make it ok.

Folding here is terrible. The sidepot is much more than 60k it's 96k. If wario is 3betting top 6% which is 88+, AJs+, which I think is really modest considering his stack size and position then Joey has to have a QQ+ range for it to be a bad call. Given his stack size though AK is easily within his range and it makes the call as OP says, trivial.

spoiler? im calling pretty much all day

so is the question here whether our equity difference against wario's range greater than that of the equity range we give up to joey's range?

call and hope joey has AK :D

oh, results were wario had 99 joey had KK and KK won the main with 4-flush 99 scooped the side with a 9.

But yeah the question was whether our overlay of 50k sidepot (since we haven't put any money in for the whole pot yet the side pot is only 50k not 90k) is worth it vs a range of 77+ A9s+ when we're likely vs a range of QQ+ AKo+ for the main pot.


Our equity for the main pot

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 29.209% 28.88% 00.33% 961090036 11049922.33 { JdJs }
Hand 1: 46.950% 45.52% 01.43% 1514928906 47651587.33 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 2: 23.841% 22.20% 01.64% 738811240 54659020.33 { 77+, A9s+, AJo+ }

Our equity for the side pot

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 57.442% 56.65% 00.79% 529668888 7362774.00 { JJ }
Hand 1: 42.558% 41.77% 00.79% 390523548 7362774.00 { 77+, A9s+, AJo+ }


I guess i'll try to figure it out...so 197873 is the main pot, and 97240 is the side pot after we call. Our starting stack is 138396 And our equity in chips after the hand is over should be...(197873*0.29209) + (97240*.57442) = 113653.32537. Wow. ok so if i did that right we are losing 24742.7 chips (or 17% of our stack) every time we make this call. I guess the sidepot isn't big enough to make the call.

lame. Someone double check that math and see if i missed something.

EDIT: Ohhhh, nevermind effective stacks to start the hand are around 112k. Which means that after the hand in raw equity i am up chips plus there is dead money which makes it +ev to click call i guess. Really didn't think it would be that close though

If you run out of chips in a tournament you are out right?

I mean it's a pretty big jimmy-jam and you are utg. I find it more useful when players post their own stats as well, or at least how they have been running at that table to give me an idea what opp may think about us, but considering your position, if villain isn't a general spewtard, and if you haven't been active/out of line lately, then its a pretty sick spot. With a large sidepot, I don't even give a damn what shorty is in with and I agree with what earlier posters have said about his range. The key is beating the big stack, since that will guarantee at least break even/small profit (im too tired and stoned to actually do the math)

As for the big stack, sight unseen I think this is most commonly done with AK, and before I get leveled, let me explain. If you are against me, you are facing QQ-AA and sometimes AK (but I mostly flat the rest of my range - keep in mind the correct counter to small pf bet sizing is to call more and raise less. When ppl are only folding or re raising, there is little point in raising to larger amounts). Unless UTG is maniac, or I have enough history to suspect the UTG hi-jack, there is little reason to jam (or rr) light. Lucky for you, that is not a very common range for most villains, but although a case can be made for the 22-TT and AK-AQ range, are you really staking your tournament on shoving 22 to fold a utg raiser?

Although many players won't balance here by jamming AA and KK, you can't discount it from his range sight unseen. Of all hands though, the ones that make the most sense are AK and some mid-high pairs (still too big a shove for 99 or TT IP imo but w/e).

If you raise, shorty jams, and THEN this guy jams, I may be much more inclined to call, since he may isolate a helluva lot weaker here and bc many players are tempted to flat AA or KK here.

So how about some numbers. Over pair 25%, AK 75% still leaves us with about 40%ish equity (ya I'm still not gonna crunch the numbers - I think that's about right) and a ton of dead money in the pot... so even against a supernit, despite trying to find a fold, I cannot...

i think its close enough to the point where it really doesnt matter too much cEV wise.

if there are extenuating circumstances if you want to gigabet theory or icm fold then go either way

On May 19 2010 23:01 thewh00sel wrote: oh, results were wario had 99 joey had KK and KK won the main with 4-flush 99 scooped the side with a 9. But yeah the question was whether our overlay of 50k sidepot (since we haven't put any money in for the whole pot yet the side pot is only 50k not 90k) is worth it vs a range of 77+ A9s+ when we're likely vs a range of QQ+ AKo+ for the main pot. Our equity for the main pot equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 29.209% 28.88% 00.33% 961090036 11049922.33 { JdJs } Hand 1: 46.950% 45.52% 01.43% 1514928906 47651587.33 { QQ+, AKs, AKo } Hand 2: 23.841% 22.20% 01.64% 738811240 54659020.33 { 77+, A9s+, AJo+ } Our equity for the side pot equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 57.442% 56.65% 00.79% 529668888 7362774.00 { JJ } Hand 1: 42.558% 41.77% 00.79% 390523548 7362774.00 { 77+, A9s+, AJo+ } I guess i'll try to figure it out...so 197873 is the main pot, and 97240 is the side pot after we call. Our starting stack is 138396 And our equity in chips after the hand is over should be...(197873*0.29209) + (97240*.57442) = 113653.32537. Wow. ok so if i did that right we are losing 24742.7 chips (or 17% of our stack) every time we make this call. I guess the sidepot isn't big enough to make the call. lame. Someone double check that math and see if i missed something. EDIT: Ohhhh, nevermind effective stacks to start the hand are around 112k. Which means that after the hand in raw equity i am up chips plus there is dead money which makes it +ev to click call i guess. Really didn't think it would be that close though

Math is incorrect.
.29209 * (197873+97240) + (1-.29209) * .57442 * 97240 = 125741
125741 / 112000 = 12.2% increase to effective stack OR
(125741-112000) / 138396 = 9.9% increase to overall stack

i think the better you are at tourneys the more inclined you should be to fold in close spots like these.

If he had no money in the pot in the first place it could be a close spot for a skilled player. Nearly the equivalent of TT vs KQs in a heads up pot preflop. Since he's made a preflop raise it's not so close. His options are fold and lose 6.63% of stack guaranteed or call and increase stack by 9.9% in equity. There's a 23k chip (5.7 bb) differential between the two outcomes.
The factors that would swing the decision are knowing either one of the players has a much tighter range or its an ICM money jump spot large enough to merit folding.