US heading towards epic depression

Cut down on the 10k dollar watch budget. Things are gonna get rough.

--- Nuked ---

On October 06 2008 12:15 devon06atX wrote: fucking hilarious you talk about an 'epic depression' when i guarantee you'll still be living in a warm house, not going hungry, with a stable connection to the internet and a car in the driveway.

not everyone will tho.

nobody makes the exaggerated reactionary panic threads quite like Maynard.

On October 06 2008 12:22 Feiticeira wrote: nobody makes the exaggerated reactionary panic threads quite like Maynard.

Everyone's buddy Ron Paul said we could see a USSR level collapse in the US.

maynard is right there with finance.yahoo.com "MARKET MELTDOWN" in 25pt. font is their way of saying it, but i don't think that it's significantly different

on another note, maynard is thought to have more economics credentials than his critics as the famous "maynard" maneuver from starcraft was one of the most important economic breakthroughs that the world's greatest rts has ever know. also it is commonly regarded as fact that maynard! produced more scvs on average than any player before iloveoov

If you all start going "zomg depression save monies don't spend" then it'll be a self justifying prophecy. As long as the media keeps a unified stance on this it doesn't actually matter what they say.

more scvs than NTT? cant be

of course "mass-hysteria caused due to lack of understanding + reliance on mass media" has a huge effect.

However, there is something called fundamentals and they certainly point to a depression that very may well be epic.

Starting with the fannie/freddie bailouts and certainly with the AIG bailout, the severity of this crisis is clearly evident and those who blame it on just hysteria lack a fundamental understanding of what is going on.

oh i thought they were the same person. ugh my ancient starcraft trivia is deteriorating

On October 06 2008 12:37 KwarK wrote: If you all start going "zomg depression save monies don't spend" then it'll be a self justifying prophecy. As long as the media keeps a unified stance on this it doesn't actually matter what they say.

This... usually I love dumb people because well, they are dumb and it's easy to exploit them for instance on the poker table but this is other side of the coin... people always follow the masses and the masses ain't doing right now...

Although TenBagger is also quite right, not all has to do with people not thinking and following the crowd alone but I'm trying to keep my head straight and not follow into the crowd and shit, always stay positive, right ??

On October 06 2008 12:33 failsafe wrote: on another note, maynard is thought to have more economics credentials than his critics as the famous "maynard" maneuver from starcraft was one of the most important economic breakthroughs that the world's greatest rts has ever know. also it is commonly regarded as fact that maynard! produced more scvs on average than any player before iloveoov

ROFL!! Gold gold gold!!!

On October 06 2008 12:33 failsafe wrote: maynard is right there with finance.yahoo.com "MARKET MELTDOWN" in 25pt. font is their way of saying it, but i don't think that it's significantly different on another note, maynard is thought to have more economics credentials than his critics as the famous "maynard" maneuver from starcraft was one of the most important economic breakthroughs that the world's greatest rts has ever know. also it is commonly regarded as fact that maynard! produced more scvs on average than any player before iloveoov

Thank you. Someone recognizes that I'm very qualified to speak on this subject.

oh wow this is just like tlnet.
everyone is a self-proclaimed financial guru.
Rebel on kids, rebel on. Down with the media!

On October 06 2008 12:50 tloapc wrote:

ROFL

Let me hold you in my arms Maynard, i'll be Jack and you can be Rose !

my trading account went up 55% today, while im in school

needless to say im on 100% short positions.

i dont think this is a meltdown, the whole market is overvalued (in comparison to the GDP) by so much in the first place

its called a correction

On October 06 2008 13:06 Maynard! wrote: Show nested quote + On October 06 2008 12:33 failsafe wrote: maynard is right there with finance.yahoo.com "MARKET MELTDOWN" in 25pt. font is their way of saying it, but i don't think that it's significantly different on another note, maynard is thought to have more economics credentials than his critics as the famous "maynard" maneuver from starcraft was one of the most important economic breakthroughs that the world's greatest rts has ever know. also it is commonly regarded as fact that maynard! produced more scvs on average than any player before iloveoov Thank you. Someone recognizes that I'm very qualified to speak on this subject.

I recognize that you suck at putting topics in the right forum

i think the fact people are scared of the depression will make this worse

people will save money and spend less
so shop owners will make less profits and fire people and pay less taxes
so workers will have less money cuz theyre fired and spend even less
governement will get less taxes
maybe governement will fire people

can someone explain to me why the dollar gets stronger even thou economy is going down?

On October 06 2008 13:49 Floofy wrote: i think the fact people are scared of the depression will make this worse people will save money and spend less so shop owners will make less profits and fire people and pay less taxes so workers will have less money cuz theyre fired and spend even less governement will get less taxes maybe governement will fire people

i believe when people spend less it reduces inflation and therefore is good for economy

yes its true but....
i dont think US currently has major inflation problems
im not sure thought


its why social helping programs, stuff that gives money to the poor arent so bad because the poor always spend that money and therefore stimulate economy to the max. while money that goes to the rich, those rich people often store it in the bank.

u just have to balance inflation and developpement, not go 100% beating inflation or go 100% devellopement.

you know, the US schools teach neo liberism a lot, so i expect people here to promote it (BEAT INFLATION, BE COMPETITIVE WITH EXPORTATIONS, ETC)
but in quebec they like to state the positives aspect of being a more social governement

wtf are you guys babling about here.

Kwark wrote: If you all start going "zomg depression save monies don't spend" then it'll be a self justifying prophecy. As long as the media keeps a unified stance on this it doesn't actually matter what they say.

People don't save money during depressions cause it tends to devaluate way faster, also some financial breakedowns are caused by ass withdrawals.

anon wrote: i believe when people spend less it reduces inflation and therefore is good for economy

spending money is the sole reason why economy exists, I don't even know how did you came up with this.

anon wrote: yes its true but.... i dont think US currently has major inflation problems

because definition how inflation is calculated changed few times over past years it seems it's steady and low, while it's actually raging.

because definition how inflation is calculated changed few times over past years it seems it's steady and low, while it's actually raging.

wtf elaborate??

spending money is the sole reason why economy exists, I don't even know how did you came up with this.

heh he is right on this. when a bunch of people start buying, the dude who sells raise his prices cuz there is a lot of demand....

high demands = price rise
low demands = price diminush

inflation is the % at which price rise.

say u sell poker chips. if none buys ur poker chips ur gonna lower the price. but if there are tons and tons of buyers, ur gonna increase ur price.

Convert your US dollars into gold and Swiss Francs. You can thank me in 6 months by sending me a fruit basket.

Economy won't collapse, housing market might depending on what the govt ends up doing.

this is so much fun!

pair that with aliens coming to visit us on Oct 14th, and you're safe to WOOOT!

interest rates are higher and that increases the value of teh dollar.

one thing i'm curious about is credit default swaps. I watched a 60 minutes special on them last night that painted them as a bigger cause for the crises than the mortgage backed securities they're based on.
Basically what they are is an insurance policy sold alongside mortgage backed securities that ensures payment in case of mortgage default. apparently Lehman Bros, AIG and Bear Sterns were all selling tons of them. Its basically insurance but they're not regulated by typical insurance rules that stipulate the seller must actually have the funds to pay out all policies (and therefore not be leveraged).

It seems to me that these swaps would just transfer the liability from the investor back to the investment houses, but that they would be a 0-sum instrument, and thereby not make the crisis any better or worse. Worse for the investment banks for sure, but better for whoever holds the securities. Obviously the investors won't get paid in full because AIG etc can't afford to pay them out en masse..

Anyone know any more about it?

Also, the government bailout package, aside from donating a couple mil to NASCAR, is going to buy up these securities at a negotiated price. I know wallstreet is finding it impossible to value these securities, but its surprising to me that some of these investment banks aren't just selling them off at bargain basement prices, just to get them off the balance sheet. Has the inability to price these things really stopped all trading of them?

On October 06 2008 14:31 GsOne wrote: wtf are you guys babling about here. Show nested quote + Kwark wrote: If you all start going "zomg depression save monies don't spend" then it'll be a self justifying prophecy. As long as the media keeps a unified stance on this it doesn't actually matter what they say. People don't save money during depressions cause it tends to devaluate way faster, also some financial breakedowns are caused by ass withdrawals.   anon wrote: i believe when people spend less it reduces inflation and therefore is good for economy spending money is the sole reason why economy exists, I don't even know how did you came up with this.   anon wrote: yes its true but.... i dont think US currently has major inflation problems because definition how inflation is calculated changed few times over past years it seems it's steady and low, while it's actually raging.

American economy is based on spending, which has turned it into a economy based on credit and interest and subprime credits and mass house recollection is what collapsed wallstreet, the american way of living beyond their means on mass credit must end, this is the first sign, the bailt out will create a 1 trillion inflation and try to keep the same model when in fact it will just collapse ever harder, just later, same shit that happened early this year.

On October 06 2008 15:21 Fraser wrote: interest rates are higher and that increases the value of teh dollar. one thing i'm curious about is credit default swaps. I watched a 60 minutes special on them last night that painted them as a bigger cause for the crises than the mortgage backed securities they're based on. Basically what they are is an insurance policy sold alongside mortgage backed securities that ensures payment in case of mortgage default. apparently Lehman Bros, AIG and Bear Sterns were all selling tons of them. Its basically insurance but they're not regulated by typical insurance rules that stipulate the seller must actually have the funds to pay out all policies (and therefore not be leveraged). It seems to me that these swaps would just transfer the liability from the investor back to the investment houses, but that they would be a 0-sum instrument, and thereby not make the crisis any better or worse. Worse for the investment banks for sure, but better for whoever holds the securities. Obviously the investors won't get paid in full because AIG etc can't afford to pay them out en masse.. Anyone know any more about it? Also, the government bailout package, aside from donating a couple mil to NASCAR, is going to buy up these securities at a negotiated price. I know wallstreet is finding it impossible to value these securities, but its surprising to me that some of these investment banks aren't just selling them off at bargain basement prices, just to get them off the balance sheet. Has the inability to price these things really stopped all trading of them?

Im not sure what your question is here, but if what you mean is what make sit worse than only mass collected securities, is the fact Freddy and Fanny bough every single security from the Banks and even sub-prime loaners, which was a huge moral hazzard, so obviously the banks and subprimer loaners loaned money to the first mother fucker that stepped in their buildings, after all, in case he didnt pay, Freddy and Fanny would cover the losses.

This huge securities demand caused by FF bloated the market price to a ridiculous extent, and obviously people couldnt pay their loands, the mass reposession started and with the current bloated market nobody would ever take those houses back from FF and basically they just collapsed sitting in nearly 1 trillion of overvalued assets.

Plus the bailout is the most ridiculous thing ever... with the excuse of injecting liquidity to Wallstreet they are going to take those assets, that their prices were bloated by freddy and fanny, at nearly its original BLOATED price... so mother fucking shit, Freddy and Fanny buy 70% of all security houses, bloats the fucking price for the huge demand they caused, and then it proceeds to sell them smoothly at their bloated price to the fucking goverment... which in fact is using your money to buy those shitty properties AND creating 1 Trillion of extra debt to the central bank and inflation.

So long story short, you guys (along with the rest of the world sadly) got bent over and fucked in a sich scheme by FF cuz since the gov owns a big part of it, knew it was gonig to be saved, since they hold the biggest moral hazzard on walstreet.. which is being part of the government.

oh and the bailout wont change anything except buying some time at the expense of more inflation and a future stronger collapse.

On October 06 2008 14:31 GsOne wrote: wtf are you guys babling about here. Show nested quote + Kwark wrote: If you all start going "zomg depression save monies don't spend" then it'll be a self justifying prophecy. As long as the media keeps a unified stance on this it doesn't actually matter what they say. People don't save money during depressions cause it tends to devaluate way faster, also some financial breakedowns are caused by ass withdrawals.   anon wrote: i believe when people spend less it reduces inflation and therefore is good for economy spending money is the sole reason why economy exists, I don't even know how did you came up with this.   anon wrote: yes its true but.... i dont think US currently has major inflation problems because definition how inflation is calculated changed few times over past years it seems it's steady and low, while it's actually raging.

Erm, yes, they do. When the economy is doing well people like to spend their paychecks and buy nice things and generally not think about the future. They base their financial future on the assumption that the economy will continue to do well. When the economy then underperforms they stop buying shit they like and start worrying about paying the bills. Even if they are not personally effected the assumption that they will be fine is damaged so they get more cautious. Consumer spending drops and the economy contracts.

edit - lol @ me talking market on lp. lol temp ban imo.

GO RON PAUL

On October 06 2008 13:58 anon wrote: can someone explain to me why the dollar gets stronger even thou economy is going down?

http://www.oil-price.net/

Where the place to invest?

On October 15 2008 22:52 casinocasino wrote: Where the place to invest?

Guns and canned food

On October 15 2008 23:07 Zorglub wrote: Show nested quote + On October 15 2008 22:52 casinocasino wrote: Where the place to invest? Guns and canned food

+gold and a cabin in the woods you can hide out in

ENOUGH

OF

THESE

FUCKING

THREADS


: seriously every 3 days we don't need a new 'end of the world' thread...

f&f's excessive securitization inflates home prices. f&f teefs billions operating as basically the biggest jew in the universe and the market applauds and buys it up to hojillion. f&f basically poses as a government entity, enjoys favor in the form of cheaper money, assumes 0 exposure, sits on a pile of money, and doles it out so that banks don't need to keep a couple extra 100 million on hand for mortgages; in return they go X below the overnight rate and keep a fraction of the acquired vig before passing on a portion (but still greater than treasury) onto the bondholders - with no guarantee of payment, just a promise. people buy the bonds because it feels good to help people buy homes and to make a little money. f&f controls the mortgage, not the equity. they have their cash and the mortgages and manipulate both and as long as the vig is coming in, they can arbitrage at will to maximize return.

time passes and f&f finds itself under competitive pressure after having been exposed as massive jews who cherrypick the mortgages of beverly hills couples and trust fund babies. in order to be competitive, they securitize mountains of subprime and attempt to stealth it into their instruments. the market responds differently, AAA rating notwithstanding. more time passes. families with an income of 36k somehow default on their 350k ARM mortgages, bundled as part of "FNM promise2pay happyfunbond! #42." with negative income and plummeting volume and, well, negative everything, f&f proves unable to keep their promises. nobody can do shit about it though so they sit on a mountain of cash, idle. the market realizes that the market cap for a company doing nothing and losing money and with no reasonable prospect for growth or return in the forseeable future should be fuckall and the market collectively decides to do something: kill f&f and allow the vacuum to be filled.

agreed, but in the last line you are not refering to the bailout are you?

kinda hard to fill 1.7tril, i could do it with sperm in 2 weeks if i tried really hard imo

filling the void is not ideal imo, you take FF take the fall so they sell their actions and assets at their right price and let the market settle in its own natural way instead of injecting 1.7trillions in future inflation causing a huge ass moral hazard that FF where well aware off since the government owned a big part of them. However that was never going to happen, why would they take the loss when every citizen can cover up their losses?

On October 15 2008 22:52 casinocasino wrote: Where the place to invest?

Come January I'm going to bomb a shitload of money into MGM stock. It's at an all time low and casinos are getting crushed. And because people are degenerates they will definitely bounce back and that stock will go through the roof.

just a little downturn that's all, right? i'm just sitting back watching this all unravel and laughing at all the people who say this is a panic, mass hysteria, slight recession, market correction, FOX news propaganda, etc. most people on the internet forums think they know so much and are right 100% of the time and they wouldn't see a depression coming even if it smacked them in the face. even then they'd deny it. i'm sure it was like this in the 30s too. gotta love the egos especially those healthy american egos. USA USA USA USA!!!

On October 16 2008 12:12 jkpickett wrote: just a little downturn that's all, right? i'm just sitting back watching this all unravel and laughing at all the people who say this is a panic, mass hysteria, slight recession, market correction, FOX news propaganda, etc. most people on the internet forums think they know so much and are right 100% of the time and they wouldn't see a depression coming even if it smacked them in the face. even then they'd deny it. i'm sure it was like this in the 30s too. gotta love the egos especially those healthy american egos. USA USA USA USA!!!

Ah yes, the paranoid "EVERYTHING IS PROPAGANDA" dude.

Explain this to me. Ive discussed the current Economic situation with my Econ Professors(you know, the dudes with PhDs) and none of them think there will be a depression. Sure, there might and probably will be a market-correcting recession because of all the over-valued assets(unless the govt buys them of course, but that's another thread). Not one of them thinks there will be a depression and these are guys that spend their entire day reading, playing, and researching the markets and economy in general.

So here's my question, what do you think you know? That's fine if you want to sit in your chair and cross your arms and say things like "i told you so" like an idiot before anything happens, but you cant just make statements like "im sure it was like this in the 30s". Really, you're sure? How about some proof, because just saying that shows how little you know about the previous depression. The first big downturn was like 4 or 5 DAYS before the epic crash. Our economy cant even be compared to the one of 1929 feasibly.

On October 16 2008 12:12 jkpickett wrote: just a little downturn that's all, right? i'm just sitting back watching this all unravel and laughing at all the people who say this is a panic, mass hysteria, slight recession, market correction, FOX news propaganda, etc. most people on the internet forums think they know so much and are right 100% of the time and they wouldn't see a depression coming even if it smacked them in the face. even then they'd deny it. i'm sure it was like this in the 30s too. gotta love the egos especially those healthy american egos. USA USA USA USA!!!

i remember saying that there would be a huge ass depression in late summer im very proud of such a sick prediction, lots of luck involved tho

zzz if u guys are so confident at predicting depressions and can put ur $ where ur mouth is, u could easily make millions...

i think the world is not going to end... noone's panickin or shit, no clue where u get all this. usa still care more about celebrities and other entertainment crap than stock market

On October 16 2008 16:14 JYang wrote: zzz if u guys are so confident at predicting depressions and can put ur $ where ur mouth is, u could easily make millions... i think the world is not going to end... noone's panickin or shit, no clue where u get all this. usa still care more about celebrities and other entertainment crap than stock market

dep is getting 61 million for the new pirates movie **** this im becoming an actor

gg guys