another FR w/ bottom set

Submitted by : lachlan

POKERSTARS GAME #19680518158: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($1/$2) - 2008/08/17 - 07:15:19 (ET)
Table 'Amnestia' 9-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: wysston ($132 in chips)
Seat 2: krischnumani ($202.65 in chips)
Seat 3: EvilGiuGi ($197 in chips)
Seat 4: dymarko ($44 in chips)
Seat 5: scribe11 ($69 in chips)
Seat 6: Hero ($278 in chips)
Seat 7: venk16 ($1003.25 in chips)
Seat 8: Huha'sgirl ($202 in chips)
Seat 9: abec11 ($186.50 in chips)
EvilGiuGi: posts small blind $1
dymarko: posts big blind $2
wysston: posts big blind $2

Holecards
Dealt to Hero
scribe11: raises $2 to $4
Hero : calls $4
venk16: calls $4
Huha'sgirl: calls $4
abec11: calls $4
wysston: calls $2
krischnumani: calls $4
EvilGiuGi: folds
dymarko: calls $2

Flop (Pot : $33.00)

   
dymarko: checks
scribe11: bets $2
Hero : raises $24 to $26
venk16: folds
Huha'sgirl: folds
abec11: folds
wysston: folds
krischnumani: raises $64 to $90
dymarko: folds
scribe11: folds
Hero :

what would 67hh / jthh/9thh/89s/(a9hh) do (those hands are possible seeing preflop). guess 67hh/jthh/89s would play the flop like that also, rest im not sure
however 88/99 also possible and likely

dont know the guy but i think in theory this is a fold, albeit marginally( i do not have pokerstove so cannot stove vs that range unfortunately). i'd have a hard time clicking the button though

if his range is like sets + str/flush 'power' draws + two pair (say, 98) then its probably okay (slight favourite, 55-45) but without two pair in there u are like 28%

two pair probably isnt that likely here either imo cuz it would probably just peel flop imo and act on whatever turn was+bet

so yeah really gay but i think its probably a fold

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

16,830 games 0.001 secs 16,830,000 games/sec

Board: 2h 9d 8h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 51.818% 51.82% 00.00% 8721 0.00 { 2d2s }
Hand 1: 48.182% 48.18% 00.00% 8109 0.00 { 99-88, JhTh, 98s, 7h6h, 98o }

i'm pretty sure we have to get this in. your raise isn't really a raise because of the weak lead, it's more like an open and for that reason he could be raising lighter.

She might be Yugless but she has more balls then most of LP combined!

Also, wtf@folding sets?

with 98:

Board: 2h 9d 8h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 54.465% 54.46% 00.00% 32352 0.00 { 22 }
Hand 1: 45.535% 45.54% 00.00% 27048 0.00 { 99-88, JhTh, Th7h, 98s, 7h6h, 6d5d, 6h5h, 98o }

without:

Board: 2h 9d 8h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 32.167% 32.17% 00.00% 10509 0.00 { 22 }
Hand 1: 67.833% 67.83% 00.00% 22161 0.00 { 99-88, JhTh, Th7h, 7h6h, 6d5d, 6h5h }

ok so i was a bit off but im not sure he 100% stacks off here like this with 98 thats probably pretty bad but who knows

dont fold bottom sets w/o strong reads

u can input shits like Ah9h, 98s, KhQh (who the fuck folds this beautiful fuckin hand) possibly... and maybe more

You thinking about folding? Or calling here and shoving turn?
The first one is bad
The 2nd one is also bad. Cause its better to get it in here.

If you are feeling not comfortable to snap call 100BB with a set on the flop. Then you should really need to move down and consider a bigger bankroll.
Its all money anyway.

17/14/[x] <-- this x is actually more important than the previous numbers ~.~

On August 18 2008 10:01 locoo wrote: 17/14/[x] <-- this x is actually more important than the previous numbers ~.~

qft

also hand sample plz
also some kind of read/info plz

the quality of replies is gonna go down
personally i dont see a FR reg stacking off here with 98 very often but i dont play FR so maybe im completely wrong there

mostly its gonna be strong draws with like 40% or sets that have u owned, we are behind that range

maybe i am wrong here if so well w/e

capaneo, thinking of folding or shoving, and roll is not an issue im rolled for nl400

just looked up his aggression factor loco, its 2.5 over 500 hands

thanks everyone who has commented so far

to be honest i didnt have any reads on this guy, first time i think i'd ever been in a significant pot against him.

one of the reasons i am kinda questioning this hand is because preflop 8 ppl saw the flop, all for 2 big blinds, so odds are that someone is gonna flop big. i would have shoved with a smile had it been a fish or bad player giving me action but not so much from a reg here

i guess this hand is a shove though, but not a snap shove, more of a timebank shove?

ummm... i know being results orientated is frowned upon.

but curiosity got the best of me so i joined one of his tables just then, spammed his name and asked him. i lied about having two pair because i didnt want to piss him off if he missed stacking an underset

transcript:

krischnumani: sry buddy im on 9 tables atm
me [observer]: sorry i dont want to disrupt u
me [observer]: ok no worries can i just ask u something then
me [observer]: ill just ask here
krischnumani: jep
krischnumani: go on
me [observer]: i was discussing a hand with my flatmate
me [observer]: and you were the other player, it was played about this time yesterday
me [observer]: anyway, what happened right was someone minraised and lots of ppl called
me [observer]: the flop came down 982 i think
me [observer]: i had 98 for two pair and i think i bet $22 or something
me [observer]: and you re-raised it up to $70 or $80
me [observer]: i was just wondering. would u mind saying what u had if u can at all remember?
me [observer]: my flat mate thinks it was a really bad fold
krischnumani: ah i remember
krischnumani: u said in the chat that u read me on 99 or 88
me [observer]: yeah :/ maybe i was being too nitty
krischnumani: well in this case it was a nice fold
me [observer]: oh, thank you very much
me [observer]: you did have 88 or 99?
krischnumani: 88
me [observer]: cool, thanks you have no idea how much i appreciate u saying that
me [observer]: i wish u all the best for ur session and hope u live a long and fruitful life
krischnumani: thx buddy see u at the tables gl to u

doesnt matter how much your bankroll is.
You can be rolled for 1000nl and still be uncomfortable with playing 500 pot.

how do you play 98 in his spot? thats the important question

yea i can see your point. i can assure u im not worried about the money. i just dont think that because you have the 3rd nuts in a hand means u should just go all in no matter what, rather then considering opponents ranges and how your hand fares against the range. im sure sometimes this hand against certain players is the quickest shove in history, but against some other specific villains its a clear cut fold. this particular one was pretty borderline though.

On August 18 2008 11:26 ggplz wrote: how do you play 98 in his spot? thats the important question

jesus... i wouldnt know what to do... probably call 1 street in position and try and reach showdown, giveup unimproved on turn to another bet?

so you're folding 22 but calling with 98

nah, in his spot with 98 against my bet

I think there are times to fold sets in FR, but this isnt one of them man.If it was like 27T rainbow Id fold a set pretty comfortably against a tight reg but here with the preflop action his range is much wider like people said before.

well, nobody is really addressing the 98 problem.. lachlan said he would probably just flat in villian's position here

against a range without 98 against a reg here you're like 30% vs that range and u dont have to get it in atm, u arent committed.

also i doubt he bluffs here often at all, like very rarely maybe 5% of the time or something

i think a lot of players Reg vs Reg are gonna flat this flop raise with 2 pair or maybe even fold heh and unconnected flush draws arent going to be in his range really

this is close, i don't really think more than 25% of combos of 98 are in his range

0% bluffs also

and some % of FR guys are just gonna flat with draws like T9hh because they know that they often have 9 clean outs at most

so yeah i don't really think this is a slam-dunk get-it-in at all, and in fact i would probably fold and not really expect him to have many big draws or 98. but i don't really hate getting it in here, i just don't really think it's very profitable if it's correct, but it's a solid/medium spew if it's incorrect.

in spots where i'm only showing a minor profit under ideal conditions, but i think that worse conditions are completely reasonable, i just fold a lot

avoiding mistakes that cost a buyin is really important -.-

seems to me like if 8(!) people see the flop a lot of players wont be semibluffing any sort of draw(after your action), and similarly 98 knows its not gonna get huge action from worse
even though your bet is sort of an open because he minbets, its still ridic strong betting into 5 more players to act and 6x more than your pf call
feel like this spot is so dependent on if he will make a sort of instinctive raise with fairly strong hands without really thinking(maybe masstabling) or just hoping for folds so things dont get messy[but with his sizing surely hes never gonna fold himself?]

interesting situation but I think its so rare and marginal that your decision is pretty meaningless against unknown players

On August 18 2008 14:28 [vital]Myth wrote: this is close, i don't really think more than 25% of combos of 98 are in his range 0% bluffs also and some % of FR guys are just gonna flat with draws like T9hh because they know that they often have 9 clean outs at most so yeah i don't really think this is a slam-dunk get-it-in at all, and in fact i would probably fold and not really expect him to have many big draws or 98. but i don't really hate getting it in here, i just don't really think it's very profitable if it's correct, but it's a solid/medium spew if it's incorrect. in spots where i'm only showing a minor profit under ideal conditions, but i think that worse conditions are completely reasonable, i just fold a lot avoiding mistakes that cost a buyin is really important -.-

agreed this is one of those few spots where it should be correct to fold bottom set, FR regs are just so insanley nitt I'd expect them not to play their draws fast in a 7 way pot even something as big as JThh, i'd pitch it and not think about it too much about it