aa in squeezed spot on btn - Page 2

so like how bad it is to fold here is really in question, and im probably doing okay with myself if this is one of my major questionable situations ive been in for the last few thousand hands? :D :D

not a squeezed pot

UTG has nothing to do with this hand your up against the sb and bb (but i assume sb is the 80%)

uhh flat the flop if your going to raise/fold; your hand has too much value to drop in half your stack then fold vs an 80% vpip.

sure the nit might have a set but he's just as likely to have ak since hes a gay 25nl fr nit and would play both hands similarly on the flop and pf and ak combos > pair combos

this board is so dry that their big action looks scary but when you break down their hand ranges you should get it in and the more you think the bb is aware of the SBs fishiness the easier it is for you to get it in.

Although the way u played this hand will allow a good bb to destroy u

like cap said u only have to have a 1/4 chance or better to win to make it equitable and this is by no means a proffesional estimate but id say both have kings 1/4 of the time, a king and a straight draw another 1/4 of the time, 2pair or better 1/2 the time, and a set 1/4 of the time so i would think calling has around 2/5 chances of winning against these ranges - positive expectation of 130 percent or more but thats all guestimation

I think i'd fold here, the board is so dry and you show so much strenght i can't see how this guy would ignore you and try to stack the fish that he prolly has beat. I expect to see him show up with 55-22 very often in this spot, he called preflop given the odds and the fact he had position on the fish, flat the donk lead because the flop is so dry.

I think you have to call, you can't raise/fold here, esp not putting in 40% of a buyin then giving up. I really like calling the flop btw in position instead of raising -> don't let them fold KJ/KT.

Real lesson in this hand is don't raise/fold, or more generally think before you do something. You seemed to have randomly decided to raise 'lol cuz i has aces', putting in over a third of a buyin, then got scared when you got raised. I don't think it's worth it to raise for info, folding vs a shove because he always has a set, mostly because they don't always have to have a set.

I guess what it comes down to in deciding to raise/fold is how often their 3bet is going to mean a set. If it means it like over 80% of the time, then you can raise/fold, if not, then you are spewing.

thinking about folding for $16 to win $50 on ANY flop with AA is just retarded

nm

On July 20 2008 14:25 chris wrote: why wouldnt AK 3bet pre tho? maniac is probably close to any two and you almost polarize a range that the other guy calls with.

98% of donks and 80% of regulars don't 3bet AK at 25nl

Even if you are up against AK or 22/55, there are 3 AK combinations and a total of 6 set combinations (im not putting KK in there as a possible set, im assuming it gets 3bet), so given pot odds you can never fold this.

edit: But if one of them has AK the other cannot, so that skews the other guys range to just sets if we presume that they are purely AK/sets in their range, meaning we should fold by far. On the other hand reducing their range to AK/sets is a big assumption, esp with that crazy 80/10 donk in there - he doesn't need to have AK, leaving the AK combos mostly open for the regular to have, basically invalidating the earlier 'if one has AK the other can't' reasoning.

On July 20 2008 21:28 capaneo wrote: thinking about folding for $16 to win $50 on ANY flop with AA is just retarded

Win more than $50, we already put in $10 into the pot + their combined $50 stacks.

edit: after $3 rake we are trying to win $57 and have to call (26-9.50 = 16.5), getting 57/16.5-1 or about 3.5-1

AK is the bottom of villains range. we're not concerned about the donkey

assume KK will 3bet pre, 6 combos for sets, 3 combos for AK

how ever assume also that the donkey generally has a decentish hand like top pair Kx here, tilting the villain range less from AK and more towards sets

even so, calling 15 to win $70ish pot is like auto-call here

you should have realised this before you decide to raise to $9.50 and throw half your stack in -.-...throwing half a stack in and then folding is a huge spew and shows incompetence on your part ie. you should know that when you do a $9.50 raise, what you're going to do if some one shoves and generally it should be snap call because if you're considering folding then don't do such a big raise in the first place -.-

On July 20 2008 21:53 PokerDoc88 wrote: AK is the bottom of villains range. we're not concerned about the donkey assume KK will 3bet pre, 6 combos for sets, 3 combos for AK how ever assume also that the donkey generally has a decentish hand like top pair Kx here, tilting the villain range less from AK and more towards sets even so, calling 15 to win $70ish pot is like auto-call here you should have realised this before you decide to raise to $9.50 and throw half your stack in -.-...throwing half a stack in and then folding is a huge spew and shows incompetence on your part ie. you should know that when you do a $9.50 raise, what you're going to do if some one shoves and generally it should be snap call because if you're considering folding then don't do such a big raise in the first place -.-

Dude you plagiarized all my posts.

PS Ya I know you didn't read any replies before posting.

On July 20 2008 17:44 rockman255 wrote: so like how bad it is to fold here is really in question, and im probably doing okay with myself if this is one of my major questionable situations ive been in for the last few thousand hands? :D :D

folding cant be bad imo, neither is calling but i think folding is a tad bit better

find a way to raise more

you always have the idiot beat, and the 'solid' guy can never fold a decent hand because of the idiot

and on top of that its btn vs sb vs bb where stupid lag stuff always happens

i think you raised way too much

okay, so granted i really did fuck this one up. i already feel bad enough about losing 2 free buyins guys

at least its mildly thought provoking enough to get a couple posts from the hs guys

what i take mainly from the discussion that i completely wasnt considering in the heat of the moment:

a) POT ODDS i wasnt thinking it was really crazy like $16 for what would be a $65-70 pot

b) the more credit i give the non-moron, the more he can't fold a king, the more i have to call. that is a really key point here i think.

c) Bet sizing was pretty bad on flop and i also strongly could have considered calling instead of reraising in position.

lots of great points as always from everyone on board at LP

Boing!

i NEVER fold here