200nl AKo 300bb deep - Page 2

true... they never slow play sets... they slow play big flushes... depends tho... might also mean a small flush, you're both so deep he can't raise or fold his hand... even bottom and middle set he might play the same way in pos. cos stacks are deep...

ok so i bet ~110 into 140 and he jams.....

i think the saying is "innocent until proven guilty"...well in poker it should be "we have the best hand until proven otherwise".

so on the turn you think about hand ranges and how to extract the maximum. Being deep is not a problem especially since he cannot have the nuts here since we hold Ac.

I like a small bet on the turn with the intention of calling a raise. If he's not tricky he will probably peel QQ KK AJ w/wo clubs. If he's tricky he will raise all his floats and maybe turn some made hands into bluffs here. A big bet makes it too easy for him to get away from this hand cheaply.

If you check it's because you put him on a weak hand like 99 TT and want to get one more street of value. But if you check I like a checkraise on non Q,K rivers if he clicks it back.

hmm...just saw your latest post:

That's why I don't like a big turn bet; it gives him the incentive to shove the turn and profit a lot. As well as putting us in a tough spot.

If you bet 70ish he can't put us on a monster hand and therefore has to raise to an amount that we can call with a wider range. He can also bluff a wider range without committing his stack.

well now that we know what happened it's just a pokerstove question.

420 to win 1200 = 35%.

we have 7 nut outs against flushes for 15%, 9 nut outs against sets for 20%, 13 outs against twopair hands like AJ A8 for 28%...and whenever he's bluffing we have him crushed so bad (like 90% favourite).

let q be the percentage of times he has a flush, x be the percentage of times he has a set, y be the percentage of times he has 2pair, and z be the percentage of times he has one pair hands like QQ.

then you have to solve the equation q*.15 +x*.2 + y*.28 + z * .90 >= .35

I tried some numbers and basically if he's bluffing more than 25% of the time it's an instacall.

royalsu ::bows down:: plz i really would like to understand how u r able to do this type of calculation, i know nothing of the math portion of the game.

and i def agree w/ what u r saying about a smaller bet on the turn, i think that might be most optimal.

however .. .do we think he can be bluffing 25% of the time? i just cant say im sure he is bluffing that often.

so did you call?

hmmm let me just simplify the equation:

If you're beat we'll average our equity to 20%...if you're ahead we have 90%.

x*.20 + y*.9 >= .35

we break evenish when he's bluffing 20% of the time. Meh fold it.

even though the math says betfold...i think this is where your read kicks in. Timing tells and history are huge in this spot. I would call this if villain in this hand was myself lol.

I think it's a good shove against your range. By betting you've polarized your range to nutty/air type hands. I think you check QQ KK with clubs and other random showdown hands and he knows this. It's like you either have AA and aren't folding or you have AK and might fold to a shove, or you have air and instafold.

disconnect protect imo

I tried the math too and it looks like we have around 37% vs his range (using a lot of estimation and guessing obv), but anyway since its so close you should decide based on your reads.

Is it way too nitty to just check/call this turn?

and if your flop bet was raised is it too spewy to jam?
i like the math breakdown on the turn, his push really polarises his hand though and i might even discount it to flush/set vs. air excluding 2 pair type hands.

royalsu, i dont really see where a timing tell would help me here. maybe if he waited a really long time to shove that might lean me towards thinking its a bluff A LITTLE bit more but not much. Maybe 5-10% more of the time id think its a bluff, but I just don't see how this would help. Thing is, I haven't polarized my range by betting this turn because I would definitely bet this turn with my entire range. All holdings that I fired the flop, even KJo w/out a club I would fire here. Obv that would be as a bluff and not for value, but it does change the fact that villain should call me down w/ lighter or bluff more often. Not sure if villain knows me well enough to know this.

clee, this is why i cant check the turn, it basically turns my hand face up, and creates a reverse implied odds situation.

i would fire 2nd bullet and probably get it in vs. a shove unless the guy is supernit

timing tells:

it's really not how fast he shoves that matters but how fast you bet the turn. If you bet the turn fast I (as villain) would be more inclined to shove on you: The ace should make you rethink the hand because either you were bluffing the flop or are bluffing the turn. This is a key read I use. And in both cases your hand is no stronger than one pair.

and I'm not worried about him hollywooding on the turn. How fast did he call preflop and on the flop? That's where my hand range analysis comes in.

if you bet and he shoves, you only call getting like 3.5:1 or so, which i don't think you're getting.

when you bet this turn you get called by tons of worse hands and there are very few better hands in his range anyway, so you obviously bet for value and if he shoves then it sucks but you're beaten

that's all there is to it, this thread should be 2 posts long: first the original question then a "yes, vbet/fold turn"

if you don't have the Ac then check/calling once on the turn might be better, but betting this flop without the Ac (or Kc) is prob suicide anyway so that's a little irrelevant

On July 15 2008 20:51 royalsu wrote: well now that we know what happened it's just a pokerstove question. 420 to win 1200 = 35%. we have 7 nut outs against flushes for 15%, 9 nut outs against sets for 20%, 13 outs against twopair hands like AJ A8 for 28%...and whenever he's bluffing we have him crushed so bad (like 90% favourite). let q be the percentage of times he has a flush, x be the percentage of times he has a set, y be the percentage of times he has 2pair, and z be the percentage of times he has one pair hands like QQ. then you have to solve the equation q*.15 +x*.2 + y*.28 + z * .90 >= .35 I tried some numbers and basically if he's bluffing more than 25% of the time it's an instacall.

yeh but nobody bluffing more than 5% here

the fact that you have Ac makes checking a more viable option in my opinion

lots of bad advice in this thread

if he has you beat, you save money
you can trap and get $ out of floats very easily and safely
if you do check call and hit a club on the river your hand looks very much like you just had a naked ace so he will fire any club almost and bluffs on the river both of which you can checkraise for max value instead of betting out

these factors weigh far more heavily in this situation 300 bb's deep than the value you may lose against decent hands from checking

bet calling is just bad and extremely marginal unless you've been completely running the guy over and making his life miserable

i agree he's rarely bluffing. But there's always the spazz/retard factor to account for. People do all sorts of irrational things.

Even just yesterday Oly and me got owned while I sweated him in a spot where we were both like "he's got a monster...he just slowplayed us". We checkraised and folded our 33 "air" on a dry K82x turn...only to be instashoved on by 25. People do turn showdown value hands into a bluff in random spots.