UFC FN 186: Rozenstruik vs. Gane

Date: Saturday, February 27
Main Card (ESPN+): 2:00 LP.net / 5pm PST / 8pm EST
Preliminary Card (ESPN+): 23:00 LP.net / 2pm PST / 5pm EST
Live Streams: http://ripple.stream/mmastreams




Main Card (ESPN+)

Jairzinho Rozenstruik (11-1) vs. Ciryl Gane (7-0) (Heavyweight)
Nikita Krylov (27-7) vs. Magomed Ankalaev (14-1) (Light Heavyweight)
Montana De La Rosa (11-6) vs. Mayra Bueno Silva (7-1) (Women's Flyweight)
Pedro Munhoz (18-5) vs. Jimmie Rivera (23-4) (Bantamweight)
Angela Hill (12-9) vs. Ashley Yoder (8-6) (Women's Strawweight)
Alex Caceres (17-12) vs. Kevin Croom (21-12) (Featherweight)

Preliminary Card (ESPN+)

Thiago Moises (14-4) vs. Alexander Hernandez (12-3) (Lightweight)
Alex Oliveira (22-9-1) vs. Ramazan Kuramagomedov (8-0) (Welterweight)
Sabina Mazo (9-1) vs. Alexis Davis (19-10) (Women's Bantamweight)
William Knight (9-1) vs. Alonzo Menifield (9-2) (Light Heavyweight)
Vince Cachero (7-3) vs. Ronnie Lawrence (6-1) (Bantamweight)
Dustin Jacoby (13-5) vs. Maxim Grishin (31-8-2) (Light Heavyweight)

Other

- Randy Brown was expected to face Alex Oliveira in a welterweight bout at the event. However, Brown pulled out of the fight during the week leading up to the event due to undisclosed reasons. Promotional newcomer, Ramazan Kuramagomedov, replaced Randy Brown on February 23.

I'll be in Vegas for this card. It originally had a few other fights I wanted to bet on, but there were several fight cancellations and late replacements -- still some value on this card. Either way, while in Vegas, I am going to place two max bets for the March 6 card.

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First impression of the match-ups:

• Gane > Rozenstruik
• Ankalaev > Krylov
• Rosa > Silva
• Rivera > Munhoz
• Hill > Yoder (My money will be on Yoder +300.)
• Caceres vs. Croom (dunno)
• Hernandez > Moises
• Oliveira vs. Kuramagomedov (dunno)
• Mazo > Davis
• Knight vs. Menifield (dunno)
• Cachero vs. Lawrence (dunno)
• Jacoby > Grishin

Croom looks undervalued here. James Kraus’ boys looks to be on a tear recently.

Fade Brazilian cowboy. I hope the new guy is the underdog. No lines up yet.

Defintely like William Knight. I hate the fact that Menefield breaks if he doesn’t get the fight his way. Knight can go through adversity.

I have a feeling both Roz and Krylov are being disrespected here. Don’t you think the lines should be closer?

Same with Mazo vs Davis, especially seeing how Kish was owning Mazo at the beginning of that fight.

On February 24 2021 07:47 PuertoRican wrote: • Hill > Yoder (My money will be on Yoder +300.)

“VIA SPLIT DECISIOOOOON...”

That’s going to be hilarious.

On February 24 2021 09:02 captainhook wrote: Croom looks undervalued here. James Kraus’ boys looks to be on a tear recently. Fade Brazilian cowboy. I hope the new guy is the underdog. No lines up yet. Defintely like William Knight. I hate the fact that Menefield breaks if he doesn’t get the fight his way. Knight can go through adversity. I have a feeling both Roz and Krylov are being disrespected here. Don’t you think the lines should be closer? Same with Mazo vs Davis, especially seeing how Kish was owning Mazo at the beginning of that fight. Show nested quote + On February 24 2021 07:47 PuertoRican wrote: • Hill > Yoder (My money will be on Yoder +300.) “VIA SPLIT DECISIOOOOON...” That’s going to be hilarious.

^ This will be Angela Hill after she loses another split-decision.

• Cowboy Oliveira: the new Russian guy opened at -155 on 5dimes, but is now -125. I expected people to slam the new guy's line.
• Rozenstruik vs. Gane: I think this fight will end relatively quick, and will kind of suck. I think Gane will exploit the lack of wrestling defense and BJJ skills, and get a submission win or use GnP to win. It's a classic spot where everyone thinks it will be a great striking battle, but one guy is a pure striker while the other is a well-rounded MMA fighter who is 4-0 in the UFC and 2 of those wins are by submission. I added $10 on Gane submission +515, and I will add a lot more once I get to Vegas on Friday.
• Krylov should lose easy unless he somehow gets the fight to the ground and ends up on top of Ankalaev.
• Mazo vs. Davis: Davis always wins at least one round in all of the fights she loses by decision.

Cowboy Oliviera vs Russian new guy is now almost a pickem. So tempted right now. I'm going to wait until the weigh in and see how they look.

On February 25 2021 01:55 captainhook wrote: Cowboy Oliviera vs Russian new guy is now almost a pickem. So tempted right now. I'm going to wait until the weigh in and see how they look.

Apparently Ramazan cuts a lot of weight and usually needs time to make weight for a fight. He will probably make weight for this fight, but I wouldn't be surprised if he looks good in R1 and loses the next 2 rounds.

I don't know anything about Ramazan's fight style, so I'm staying away until I watch some tape.

From the couple of videos I’ve seen on YouTube, he has strong leg kicks, mixes in some takedowns, decent gnp, some tendencies to grind opponents to the cage if needed. I like him. And I just can’t trust Brazilian cowboy anymore.

But as I’m losing for the past couple of events, Croom would probably be my only bet for this one. And maybe William Knight.

FFFFAAAAKKKK UUUUUUUUU!!!! I was excited for that one.

"Alex Oliveira vs. Ramazan Kuramagomedov is cancelled after Kuramagomedov withdrew from the contest due to illness."

Weight cut was probably too hard for him, since he usually takes awhile to cut to 170 pounds, and he attempted to take this fight on 1 week notice.

OK, this event sucks for me now. I guess I put some money on Munhoz.

On February 27 2021 01:45 captainhook wrote: OK, this event sucks for me now. I guess I put some money on Munhoz.

Probably a blessing in disguise. Those 2 canceled fights were the hardest fights to cap on the entire card, and were 50/50 at the sportsbooks if I remember correctly.

On February 28 2021 01:15 PuertoRican wrote:

In hindsight that Caceres via sub bet was so good. I had a feeling Croom might have had a bad weight cut even though he made weight. He didn’t look all too good at weigh ins.

He had the right game plan vs Caceres but didn’t have the gas tank to execute.

One of the fighters marked to watch at weigh ins before making a bet.