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UFC on ESPN 14: Whittaker vs. Till

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captainhook   Canada. Jul 25 2020 06:22. Posts 466

Parlayed Dalby, Boser, Aspinal at +150. Collier looked like a guy who didn't train.

 Last edit: 25/07/2020 06:24

PuertoRican   United States. Jul 25 2020 22:02. Posts 13030


  On July 23 2020 04:50 PuertoRican wrote:

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My final picks:

• Till > Whittaker
• Rua > Nogueira
• Gustafsson > Werdum
• Rodriguez > Esparza
• Craig > Antigulov
• Sobotta > Oliveira
• Chimaev > McKee
• Trinaldo > Herbert
• Dalby > Ronson
• Aspinall > Collier
• Grundy > Evloev
• Boser > Pessoa
• Correia > Kianzad
• Emeev > Stolze
• Wood > Castaneda

Rekrul is a newb 

PuertoRican   United States. Jul 25 2020 23:16. Posts 13030

Wood vs. Castaneda was a fun fight.

Emeev did enough to slow down his fight and make it boring, as usual.

Pannie vs. Bethe was a fun fight.

Rekrul is a newb 

PuertoRican   United States. Jul 26 2020 00:06. Posts 13030

Nice quick win for Tom Aspinall.

The movement -- especially the high kick -- was so slow for Jake Collier.

Rekrul is a newb 

PuertoRican   United States. Jul 26 2020 00:22. Posts 13030

Well, Ronson dropping Dalby in R1 and getting a submission win is the last thing anyone thought would happen...

Fuck.

Rekrul is a newb 

PuertoRican   United States. Jul 26 2020 00:57. Posts 13030

Trinaldo was +1000 on 5dimes as he headed into R3 against Herbert.

Nice R3 KO win by the old man.

Rekrul is a newb 

captainhook   Canada. Jul 26 2020 03:09. Posts 466

Nice win by Werdum.


  On July 25 2020 23:22 PuertoRican wrote:
Well, Ronson dropping Dalby in R1 and getting a submission win is the last thing anyone thought would happen...

Fuck.



Yup. Lost my parlay because of that.

 Last edit: 26/07/2020 03:11

PuertoRican   United States. Jul 26 2020 03:11. Posts 13030


  On July 24 2020 22:01 PuertoRican wrote:
Fabricio Werdum weigh-in results

• 242 vs. Gustafsson in July 2020 (R1 submission win)
• 243 vs. Oleinik in May 2020 (decision loss)
• 249 vs. Volkov in March 2018 (KO loss)
• 249 vs. Tybura in November 2017 (decision win)
• 247 vs. Harris in October 2017 (R1 submission win)
• 239 vs. Overeem in July 2017 (decision loss)

Tybura isn't great at anything, and the fight against Harris (pure striker) was on less than 1 day short notice after Lewis pulled out.

I expect Gustafsson/Werdum to go the distance, unless Werdum gets a trip or a body-lock take down and gets a submission.


Updated.

So, Werdum has won 3 out of his last 6 fights, and those 3 wins were against easy competition.

The will be the first and last time we see Gustafsson at heavyweight.

Rekrul is a newb 

captainhook   Canada. Jul 26 2020 03:15. Posts 466

^ Lol. For sure. Wipe that smirk off your face Jon Jones.


PuertoRican   United States. Jul 26 2020 03:39. Posts 13030

R1: Shogun
R2: I missed most of it, but Nog seemed like the aggressor
R3: Shogun (he sealed the deal with the TD with 1:05 left in the round and was busy on top.)


Shogun Rua 2-1.

Rekrul is a newb 

captainhook   Canada. Jul 26 2020 04:10. Posts 466

1 - 1?


PuertoRican   United States. Jul 26 2020 04:15. Posts 13030

R1: Till
R2: Whittaker
R3: Whittaker (Close round. I think it depends on the judge, even though I think Whittaker landed more strikes.)

Rekrul is a newb 

PuertoRican   United States. Jul 26 2020 04:28. Posts 13030

R1: Till (Till dropped Whittaker.)
R2: Whittaker (Whittaker dropped till.)
R3: Whittaker (Close round. I think it depends on the judge, even though I think Whittaker landed more strikes.)
R4: Till (Closest round of the fight. I lean with Till landing the better shots, while Whittaker landed a few more shots.)
R5: Till (The commentators are biased af. Whittaker took the round off, imo. Till was the only fighter landing the decent/good shots this round. The quick TD at the end of the round meant nothing, as Till got back up, and Whittaker didn't attempt any damage.)


Darren Till 3-2, imo.

Rekrul is a newb 

PuertoRican   United States. Jul 26 2020 04:30. Posts 13030

The judges had the scores ready the fastest I've ever seen in a UFC fight.

Rekrul is a newb 

PuertoRican   United States. Jul 26 2020 04:38. Posts 13030


  On July 23 2020 07:30 PuertoRican wrote:
Show nested quote +


Trinaldo is currently -140. I'm waiting to see where the line goes to lay enough to win $100 on Trinaldo.

Herbert is Trinaldo's easiest opponent in years. If Herbert doesn't land a big shot, it's a clear win for the old man.

----------

As for Whittaker vs. Till, Whittaker is the better fighter, but this matchup won't allow Whittaker to land a ton of strikes like he is used to doing. If Till is able to do what he wants to do, then this will be a low output strike for both guys, which is why I am avoiding it on DraftKings and FanDuel. If this fight ends early, it will be Till landing something big.

I think the smart play is Whittaker at even odds, but I'm going with Till because I think his career is going up, while Whittaker's career is going down (already been champ and defended his belt), and Till has more hunger/fire/reason to win this fight.

I've seen most bettors on Whittaker, yet his money line has only moved from -110 to -125 in the past 5 days. I'm sure his odds will go back near -110 as we get closer to the fight.

  On July 23 2020 04:52 captainhook wrote:
^ I'll copy that parlay but add another over - under favorite... Any suggestions?


Nope.

It's kind of a tough card for betting, imo. Weird, since there are 15 fights.

The August 1st card might only have 11 fights, and there is no value on the card from what I can see. All of the fighters who I think will win are at least -210, except for one who is -170. It'll probably be a card where I make a few parlays and hope several underdogs don't win.


As I mentioned before, there were 15 fights, but the card was a tough one to bet on.

Only 4 bets, but lost them all.

I scored the fight 3-2 for Darren Till, but he didn't throw enough strikes, I guess.

Rekrul is a newb 

captainhook   Canada. Jul 26 2020 04:39. Posts 466

Yeah it was close. At least Till showed that he belongs. Happy for Whitaker.


Into Infinity   United States. Jul 26 2020 05:15. Posts 1884

Esparza is the worst. This fight and the grasso one tilted the hell out of me lol.

Main event was good. Thought 4 was a coinflip, 2-2 otherwise. Glad to see Rob back though.


PuertoRican   United States. Jul 26 2020 05:26. Posts 13030


Rekrul is a newbLast edit: 26/07/2020 08:24

captainhook   Canada. Jul 27 2020 08:02. Posts 466

Will you be on the next Rent Free podcast?


PuertoRican   United States. Jul 27 2020 09:08. Posts 13030


  On July 27 2020 07:02 captainhook wrote:
Will you be on the next Rent Free podcast?


Maybe.

The guy who posts the videos has been busy with his new business, and I will start to return to my normal life of working in early August when school starts -- I have been on vacation for almost 2 months.

Once I go back to work, I will still watch UFC every weekend, but I won't have time to research fights, aside from 1-2 fights on a card that I really like and want to make a big bet on in Las Vegas (most of my betting bankroll is in Vegas, which is why I spent half of my summer there).

I'll basically just be watching fights and playing on DraftKings/FanDuel for the next month, since there are no fights I want to go big on until August 29 (Giga Chikadze vs. Alex Caceres). There is the DC vs. Stipe fight on August 15, but I already made a bet for that a few weeks ago ($575 for $500 on Daniel Cormier), so I won't need to travel or bet on any fights until August 29.

Rekrul is a newb 

 
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