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UFC on ESPN 14: Whittaker vs. Till

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PuertoRican   United States. Jul 22 2020 03:17. Posts 11988

Date: Saturday, July 25
Main Card (ESPN / ESPN+): 1:00 LP.net / 5pm PST / 8pm EST
Preliminary Card (ESPN / ESPN+): 22:00 LP.net / 2pm PST / 5pm EST
Live Streams: http://crackstreams.com/mma/2/




Main Card (ESPN / ESPN+)

Robert Whittaker (20-5) vs. Darren Till (18-2-1) (Middleweight)
Mauricio Rua (26-11-1) vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (23-9) (Light Heavyweight)
Fabricio Werdum (23-9-1) vs. Alexander Gustafsson (18-6) (Heavyweight)
Carla Esparza (16-6) vs. Marina Rodriguez (12-0-2) (Women's Strawweight)
Paul Craig (12-4-1) vs. Gadzhimurad Antigulov (20-6) (Light Heavyweight)
Alex Oliveira (21-8-1) vs. Peter Sobotta (17-6-1) (Welterweight)
Khamzat Chimaev (7-0) vs. Rhys McKee (10-2-1) (Welterweight)

Preliminary Card (ESPN / ESPN+)

Francisco Trinaldo (25-7) vs. Jai Herbert (10-1) (Lightweight)
Nicolas Dalby (18-3-1) vs. Jesse Ronson (21-10) (Welterweight)
Tom Aspinall (7-2) vs. Jake Collier (11-4) (Heavyweight)
Movsar Evloev (12-0) vs. Mike Grundy (12-1) (Featherweight)
Tanner Boser (18-6-1) vs. Raphael Pessoa (10-1) (Heavyweight)
Bethe Correia (11-4-1) vs. Pannie Kianzad (12-5) (Women's Bantamweight)
Ramazan Emeev (18-4) vs. Niklas Stolze (12-3) (Welterweight)
Nathaniel Wood (16-4) vs. John Castaneda (17-4) (Bantamweight)

Other

- A welterweight bout between Ramazan Emeev and Shavkat Rakhmonov was expected to take place at the event, but Rakhmonov was forced to withdraw due to injury on July 2 and replaced by Niklas Stolze on July 5.
- Umar Nurmagomedov was expected to face Nathaniel Wood in a bantamweight bout at this event. However, he pulled out on July 3 after his uncle, Abdulmanap Nurmagomedov (also the father of current UFC Lightweight Champion Khabib Nurmagomedov), died from complications related to COVID-19. He was replaced by promotional newcomer John Castaneda on July 9.
- Justin Tafa was expected to face Raphael Pessoa in a heavyweight bout at this event. However, he pulled out on July 15 due to unknown reasons and was replaced by Tanner Boser that same day.

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Rekrul is a newb 

PuertoRican   United States. Jul 22 2020 03:21. Posts 11988



----------

First impression of the match-ups:

• Till > Whittaker
• Rua > Nogueira
• Gustafsson > Werdum
• Rodriguez > Esparza
• Craig > Antigulov
• Oliveira > Sobotta
• Chimaev > McKee
• Trinaldo > Herbert
• Dalby > Ronson
• Aspinall > Collier
• Evloev > Grundy
• Boser > Pessoa
• Kianzad > Correia
• Emeev > Stolze
• Wood > Castaneda

Rekrul is a newb 

captainhook   . Jul 22 2020 06:37. Posts 172

I got Whitaker. I don't think Till can lean way far back like Adesanya... Till gonna get caught with something like a 2 - 1 followed by Whitaker's right snapping high kick. I think... Dunno. And Till's not really battle tested vs the top guys his size at MW.

I like Esparza. I think Rodriguez is gonna have trouble with the takedowns.

Here's where I'm having trouble. I feel it's Sobotta. He has a good jab and fairly decent striking and Oliveira gets hit. And I think he edges Oliveira on the ground, who's prone to make mistakes.

I also got some random over - under bets: Over 1.5 for Rua vs Nog, under 4.5 for the main event, over 2.5 for Gus vs Werum and the under 1.5 for Craig vs Antigulov.

 Last edit: 22/07/2020 11:57

captainhook   . Jul 22 2020 10:15. Posts 172

How's Trinaldo's cardio?


PuertoRican   United States. Jul 23 2020 05:50. Posts 11988


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Rekrul is a newbLast edit: 25/07/2020 05:39

PuertoRican   United States. Jul 23 2020 05:51. Posts 11988


  On July 22 2020 09:15 captainhook wrote:
How's Trinaldo's cardio?


Good enough for this matchup.

Jai Herbert is KO or bust.

Rekrul is a newb 

captainhook   . Jul 23 2020 05:52. Posts 172

^ I'll copy that parlay but add another over - under favorite... Any suggestions?


captainhook   . Jul 23 2020 05:54. Posts 172


  On July 23 2020 04:51 PuertoRican wrote:
Show nested quote +


Good enough for this matchup.

Jai Herbert is KO or bust.


Yeah dunno... Trinaldo looked good in his last match. This is gonna be a big test for Herbert imo. He could prolly also stick and move and win on a dec tho. I can't imagine Herbert doing what he does on the old guy. Dunno... Skipping that one.

Anyway, what's your take on Till?

 Last edit: 23/07/2020 05:58

PuertoRican   United States. Jul 23 2020 08:30. Posts 11988


  On July 23 2020 04:54 captainhook wrote:
Show nested quote +



Yeah dunno... Trinaldo looked good in his last match. This is gonna be a big test for Herbert imo. He could prolly also stick and move and win on a dec tho. I can't imagine Herbert doing what he does on the old guy. Dunno... Skipping that one.

Anyway, what's your take on Till?


Trinaldo is currently -140. I'm waiting to see where the line goes to lay enough to win $100 on Trinaldo.

Herbert is Trinaldo's easiest opponent in years. If Herbert doesn't land a big shot, it's a clear win for the old man.

----------

As for Whittaker vs. Till, Whittaker is the better fighter, but this matchup won't allow Whittaker to land a ton of strikes like he is used to doing. If Till is able to do what he wants to do, then this will be a low output strike for both guys, which is why I am avoiding it on DraftKings and FanDuel. If this fight ends early, it will be Till landing something big.

I think the smart play is Whittaker at even odds, but I'm going with Till because I think his career is going up, while Whittaker's career is going down (already been champ and defended his belt), and Till has more hunger/fire/reason to win this fight.

I've seen most bettors on Whittaker, yet his money line has only moved from -110 to -125 in the past 5 days. I'm sure his odds will go back near -110 as we get closer to the fight.

  On July 23 2020 04:52 captainhook wrote:
^ I'll copy that parlay but add another over - under favorite... Any suggestions?


Nope.

It's kind of a tough card for betting, imo. Weird, since there are 15 fights.

The August 1st card might only have 11 fights, and there is no value on the card from what I can see. All of the fighters who I think will win are at least -210, except for one who is -170. It'll probably be a card where I make a few parlays and hope several underdogs don't win.

Rekrul is a newbLast edit: 23/07/2020 08:34

PuertoRican   United States. Jul 24 2020 01:12. Posts 11988



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Fabricio Werdum won’t renew UFC contract after Gustafsson fight: ‘The cycle is over’

https://www.bloodyelbow.com/2020/7/23...r-alexander-gustafsson-fight-mma-news

Rekrul is a newbLast edit: 24/07/2020 05:38

alejandicto   . Jul 24 2020 17:50. Posts 848

My bets:

- Whittaker KO 25 to win 80
- Whittaker ML 50 to win 88.5
- Whittaker + Rua + Gustafsson 30 to win 100

I was going to bet for Sparza but regret it as her wrestling hasnt been the same in a long time, also Marina has a nice Muay thai. I dont think Sparza can wrestle her into a decision, I was also tempted to bet on Rodriguez by KO (+400) but I decided to not bet at this fight

 Last edit: 24/07/2020 17:51

PuertoRican   United States. Jul 24 2020 23:01. Posts 11988





Robert Whittaker (186) vs. Darren Till (186)
Mauricio Rua (206) vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (206)
Fabricio Werdum (242) vs. Alexander Gustafsson (240)
Carla Esparza (116) vs. Marina Rodriguez (115.5)
Paul Craig (206) vs. Gadzhimurad Antigulov (206)
Alex Oliveira (171) vs. Peter Sobotta (171)
Khamzat Chimaev (171) vs. Rhys McKee (170.5)
Francisco Trinaldo (160)* vs. Jai Herbert (156)
Nicolas Dalby (171) vs. Jesse Ronson (171)
Tom Aspinall (248) vs. Jake Collier (264)
Movsar Evloev (146) vs. Mike Grundy (146)
Tanner Boser (235) vs. Raphael Pessoa (264)
Bethe Correia (235) vs. Pannie Kianzad (136)
Ramazan Emeev (171) vs. Niklas Stolze (170.5)
Nathanial Wood (136) vs. John Castaneda (136)


*Francisco Trinaldo misses weight by 4 lbs.

----------

Fabricio Werdum weigh-in results

• 242 vs. Gustafsson in July 2020 (TBD)
• 243 vs. Oleinik in May 2020 (decision loss)
• 249 vs. Volkov in March 2018 (KO loss)
• 249 vs. Tybura in November 2017 (decision win)
• 247 vs. Harris in October 2017 (submission win)
• 239 vs. Overeem in July 2017 (decision loss)

Tybura isn't great at anything, and the fight against Harris (pure striker) was on less than 1 day short notice after Lewis pulled out.

I expect Gustafsson/Werdum to go the distance, unless Werdum gets a trip or a body-lock take down and gets a submission.

Rekrul is a newbLast edit: 25/07/2020 00:02

captainhook   . Jul 25 2020 06:22. Posts 172

Parlayed Dalby, Boser, Aspinal at +150. Collier looked like a guy who didn't train.

 Last edit: 25/07/2020 06:24

PuertoRican   United States. Jul 25 2020 22:02. Posts 11988


  On July 23 2020 04:50 PuertoRican wrote:

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-

-


My final picks:

• Till > Whittaker
• Rua > Nogueira
• Gustafsson > Werdum
• Rodriguez > Esparza
• Craig > Antigulov
• Sobotta > Oliveira
• Chimaev > McKee
• Trinaldo > Herbert
• Dalby > Ronson
• Aspinall > Collier
• Grundy > Evloev
• Boser > Pessoa
• Correia > Kianzad
• Emeev > Stolze
• Wood > Castaneda

Rekrul is a newb 

PuertoRican   United States. Jul 25 2020 23:16. Posts 11988

Wood vs. Castaneda was a fun fight.

Emeev did enough to slow down his fight and make it boring, as usual.

Pannie vs. Bethe was a fun fight.

Rekrul is a newb 

PuertoRican   United States. Jul 26 2020 00:06. Posts 11988

Nice quick win for Tom Aspinall.

The movement -- especially the high kick -- was so slow for Jake Collier.

Rekrul is a newb 

PuertoRican   United States. Jul 26 2020 00:22. Posts 11988

Well, Ronson dropping Dalby in R1 and getting a submission win is the last thing anyone thought would happen...

Fuck.

Rekrul is a newb 

PuertoRican   United States. Jul 26 2020 00:57. Posts 11988

Trinaldo was +1000 on 5dimes as he headed into R3 against Herbert.

Nice R3 KO win by the old man.

Rekrul is a newb 

captainhook   . Jul 26 2020 03:09. Posts 172

Nice win by Werdum.


  On July 25 2020 23:22 PuertoRican wrote:
Well, Ronson dropping Dalby in R1 and getting a submission win is the last thing anyone thought would happen...

Fuck.



Yup. Lost my parlay because of that.

 Last edit: 26/07/2020 03:11

PuertoRican   United States. Jul 26 2020 03:11. Posts 11988


  On July 24 2020 22:01 PuertoRican wrote:
Fabricio Werdum weigh-in results

• 242 vs. Gustafsson in July 2020 (R1 submission win)
• 243 vs. Oleinik in May 2020 (decision loss)
• 249 vs. Volkov in March 2018 (KO loss)
• 249 vs. Tybura in November 2017 (decision win)
• 247 vs. Harris in October 2017 (R1 submission win)
• 239 vs. Overeem in July 2017 (decision loss)

Tybura isn't great at anything, and the fight against Harris (pure striker) was on less than 1 day short notice after Lewis pulled out.

I expect Gustafsson/Werdum to go the distance, unless Werdum gets a trip or a body-lock take down and gets a submission.


Updated.

So, Werdum has won 3 out of his last 6 fights, and those 3 wins were against easy competition.

The will be the first and last time we see Gustafsson at heavyweight.

Rekrul is a newb 

 
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