- A bout between Kamaru Usman and Gilbert Burns was expected to headline the event. However, it was announced on July 3 that Burns was pulled from the contest after he and his coach, Greg Jones, tested positive for COVID-19. Jorge Masvidal replaced Burns on July 5.
- A heavyweight bout between Marcin Tybura between Alexander Romanov was scheduled for the event. However, Romanov was pulled from the event for an unknown reason and replaced by promotional newcomer Maxim Grishin on July 3.
Rekrul is a newb
Last edit: 09/07/2020 02:32
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PuertoRican United States. Jul 01 2020 22:19. Posts 13044
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First impression of the match-ups:
• Usman > Burns
• Holloway > Volkanovski
• Yan > Aldo
• Andrade > Namajunas
• Ribas > PVZ
• Prochazka > Oezdemir
• Santos > Salikhov
• Henry > Amirkhani
• Santos vs. Bogatov (dunno)
• Tybura vs. Romanov (dunno)
• Paiva vs. Zhumagulov (dunno)
• Rosa > Melo
• Day > Grant
Rekrul is a newb
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PuertoRican United States. Jul 01 2020 22:20. Posts 13044
I mean is it worth risking some on Burns at the current line?
And I'm leaning Holloway... He could make some adjustments like checking the leg kicks and could be starting the fight at south paw, anticipating Volkanovski's approach with a knee. Dunno...
Just watched Burns vs Woodley again. I think Burns is slightly better at striking compared to Covington? If the line was any better, I think under 4.5 rounds could be a good bet.
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PuertoRican United States. Jul 04 2020 04:37. Posts 13044
Oh damn, I think a short notice fight is the only way Masvidal has a chance to win this. This is gonna be good (Unless Kamaru lies on top of him for 5 rounds ofc)
Last edit: 06/07/2020 10:49
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PuertoRican United States. Jul 06 2020 11:54. Posts 13044
I was going to bet $1k on Usman -200 or better against Burns. I don't feel as confident now that Usman is fighting Masvidal.
I am currently waiting to see what the Under will be priced at. Assuming it's set at 4.5 rounds.
Curious on your Andrade pick. You think the first bout has a huge psychological effect on Namajunas? Judging from that bout, I couldn't think of any way how Namajunas could lose here.
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PuertoRican United States. Jul 08 2020 02:34. Posts 13044
On July 08 2020 01:20 captainhook wrote:
Curious on your Andrade pick. You think the first bout has a huge psychological effect on Namajunas? Judging from that bout, I couldn't think of any way how Namajunas could lose here.
Depending who you ask, 5 rounds favors Andrade more than it does Namajunas.
This fight is 3 rounds. I think Andrade is going to be able to empty the tank with strikes and get multiple take downs (pick-ups/throws/dumps) in every round to win a decision -- possibly a TKO.
Round 1 is always Namajunas' bets round. She gets worse with each round after R1. I plan to live bet this fight (all fights), as Andrade will most likely win and dominate R3.
On July 08 2020 01:20 captainhook wrote:
Curious on your Andrade pick. You think the first bout has a huge psychological effect on Namajunas? Judging from that bout, I couldn't think of any way how Namajunas could lose here.
Depending who you ask, 5 rounds favors Andrade more than it does Namajunas.
This fight is 3 rounds. I think Andrade is going to be able to empty the tank with strikes and get multiple take downs (pick-ups/throws/dumps) in every round to win a decision -- possibly a TKO.
Round 1 is always Namajunas' bets round. She gets worse with each round after R1. I plan to live bet this fight (all fights), as Andrade will most likely win and dominate R3.
You don't think Namajunas could maintain sticking and moving for the whole three rounds this time around?
I think I gotta watch the first fight again and see how Namajunas got her back at the cage..
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PuertoRican United States. Jul 08 2020 07:48. Posts 13044
On July 08 2020 01:20 captainhook wrote:
Curious on your Andrade pick. You think the first bout has a huge psychological effect on Namajunas? Judging from that bout, I couldn't think of any way how Namajunas could lose here.
Depending who you ask, 5 rounds favors Andrade more than it does Namajunas.
This fight is 3 rounds. I think Andrade is going to be able to empty the tank with strikes and get multiple take downs (pick-ups/throws/dumps) in every round to win a decision -- possibly a TKO.
Round 1 is always Namajunas' bets round. She gets worse with each round after R1. I plan to live bet this fight (all fights), as Andrade will most likely win and dominate R3.
You don't think Namajunas could maintain sticking and moving for the whole three rounds this time around?
I think I gotta watch the first fight again and see how Namajunas got her back at the cage..
Even if Namajunas wins a decision, it's highly unlikely that she wins Round 3. She starts fast and slows down, while Andrade keeps the same high pace for 3 rounds and has even shown to turn it up in Round 3, since her opponents don't have as good of a gas tank as her.
That being said, Namajunas is a -210 favorite for a reason. I just think that Andrade will win again, and any dog odds are great for me.
On July 08 2020 01:20 captainhook wrote:
Curious on your Andrade pick. You think the first bout has a huge psychological effect on Namajunas? Judging from that bout, I couldn't think of any way how Namajunas could lose here.
Depending who you ask, 5 rounds favors Andrade more than it does Namajunas.
This fight is 3 rounds. I think Andrade is going to be able to empty the tank with strikes and get multiple take downs (pick-ups/throws/dumps) in every round to win a decision -- possibly a TKO.
Round 1 is always Namajunas' bets round. She gets worse with each round after R1. I plan to live bet this fight (all fights), as Andrade will most likely win and dominate R3.
You don't think Namajunas could maintain sticking and moving for the whole three rounds this time around?
I think I gotta watch the first fight again and see how Namajunas got her back at the cage..
Even if Namajunas wins a decision, it's highly unlikely that she wins Round 3. She starts fast and slows down, while Andrade keeps the same high pace for 3 rounds and has even shown to turn it up in Round 3, since her opponents don't have as good of a gas tank as her.
That being said, Namajunas is a -210 favorite for a reason. I just think that Andrade will win again, and any dog odds are great for me.
I already bet Andrade +180 around 2 weeks ago.
Nono.. It's not that I don't think you're right. I'm just trying to learn and pick some info here and there by asking these questions.
Anway, who you got for the main event? Already dropped something something on Masvidal. Lol. But what do you think of the under 4.5 at -165?
I bet on Andrade (+175) and Holloway (+190) I think they are very good underdog bets and I also think I will make a small bet on masvidal by KO (+300) but still thinking on that one,
This is an awesome card btw : )
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PuertoRican United States. Jul 09 2020 19:47. Posts 13044
PuertoRican United States. Jul 10 2020 20:21. Posts 13044
Kamaru Usman (170) vs. Jorge Masvidal (170) – for welterweight title
Alexander Volkanovski (145) vs. Max Holloway (145) – for featherweight title
Petr Yan (135) vs. Jose Aldo (135) – for vacant bantamweight title
Jessica Andrade (115) vs. Rose Namajunas (116)
Amanda Ribas (126) vs. Paige VanZant (126)
Volkan Oezdemir (205.5) vs. Jiri Prochazka (205)
Muslim Salikhov (171) vs. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (171)
Makwan Amirkhani (146) vs. Danny Henry (146)
Roman Bogatov (155.5) vs. Leonardo Santos (156)
Maxim Grishin (223) vs. Marcin Tybura (252)
Raulian Paiva (129)* vs. Zhalgas Zhumagulov (126)
Vanessa Melo (141)** vs. Karol Rosa (136)
Martin Day (136) vs. Davey Grant (136)
*Paiva missed the flyweight limit and will surrender 20 percent of his purse to Zhumagulov.
**Melo missed the women’s bantamweight limit and will surrender 30 percent of her purse to Rosa.
Just wondering.. What sites do you check before making predictions? I mean besides watching the events, what info could help people and what's noise?
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PuertoRican United States. Jul 11 2020 11:11. Posts 13044
On July 11 2020 06:48 captainhook wrote:
Just wondering.. What sites do you check before making predictions? I mean besides watching the events, what info could help people and what's noise?
I have watched every UFC event since December 2009. I go off of memory, and I also do tape study when I can.
Listening to UFC podcasts is also helpful, as I don't know everything about everyone. Just gotta sift through the bullshit in podcasts and find useful information when you can.
Once I go back to work in mid-August (I'm an English teacher), I won't have a lot of time to do as much tape study on many fights like I have been since the start of June 2020, which means I'll bet a lot less fights per card.
I'm not sure, personally I don't see it. Usman has 8/10 of his last fights end in decision and Masvidal his last 8 losses are all decisions. You would need some sort of read to bet on the under I feel and I don't have that read.
You almost twin-caracked his AK - JonnyCosmo
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PuertoRican United States. Jul 11 2020 21:27. Posts 13044
On July 08 2020 00:09 PuertoRican wrote:
I'll be adding the rest of my bets in 2-3 days when I get to Las Vegas.
I have other bets, but they are smaller single bets and/or parlays. I'll post them if they hit. It'll take up too much room if I add pictures for everything.
Rekrul is a newb
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PuertoRican United States. Jul 11 2020 21:36. Posts 13044
^ ... Oooo gonna follow you on Aldo too. This will be a fun event. Still thinking if I follow the Andrade one.
On July 11 2020 15:37 Nazgul wrote:
I'm not sure, personally I don't see it. Usman has 8/10 of his last fights end in decision and Masvidal his last 8 losses are all decisions. You would need some sort of read to bet on the under I feel and I don't have that read.
It just feels like Usman is going to make sure that he finishes Masvidal earlier than he did Covington... Dunno.
Into Infinity United States. Jul 12 2020 08:54. Posts 1884
had 1,2 for max, 5 for alex, and 3,4 as coinflips (very slightly leaning towards alex). even though i had it for volk, thought max would've pulled it on the cards since those middle rounds were pretty close.
not a big fan of volkanovski tbh. seems like he's really bothered by being labeled a point fighter but fights like a point fighter. just own it if you're going to fight like that.
So I'm thinking Adesanya vs Costa. I think Adesanya is going to lose that one.
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PuertoRican United States. Jul 12 2020 19:59. Posts 13044
On July 12 2020 10:21 captainhook wrote:
So I'm thinking Adesanya vs Costa. I think Adesanya is going to lose that one.
My first thought is Costa over Israel Adesanya, but that fight won't happen for awhile.
They might coach The Ultimate Fighter, which means they won't fight until summer 2021 or something.
Rekrul is a newb
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PuertoRican United States. Jul 13 2020 02:16. Posts 13044
According to William Hill sportsbook, “A $200,000 bet was placed on Masvidal at +230 against Kamaru Usman in tonight’s welterweight title fight at The M in the Las Vegas area. If Masvidal were to pull off the upset, the total payout for the wager would be $660,000.” -- MMA Mania
Netherlands. Jul 11 2020 15:02. Posts 7080
