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UFC 251: Usman vs. Burns

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PuertoRican   United States. Jul 01 2020 22:16. Posts 12007

Date: Saturday, July 11
Main Card (ESPN+): 3:00 LP.net / 7pm PST / 10pm EST
Preliminary Card (ESPN/ESPN+): 1:00 LP.net / 5pm PST / 8pm EST
Preliminary Card (ESPN/ESPN+): 23:00 LP.net / 3pm PST / 6pm EST
Live Streams: http://crackstreams.com/mma/2/




Main Card (ESPN+)

Kamaru Usman (16-1) vs. Jorge Masvidal (35-13) (Welterweight Championship)
Alexander Volkanovski (21-1) vs. Max Holloway (21-5) (Featherweight Championship)
Petr Yan (14-1) vs. Jose Aldo (28-6) (Bantamweight Championship)
Jessica Andrade (20-7) vs. Rose Namajunas (8-4) (Women's Strawweight)
Amanda Ribas (9-1) vs. Paige VanZant (8-4) (Women's Flyweight)

Preliminary Card (ESPN/ESPN+)

Volkan Oezdemir (17-4) vs. Jiri Prochazka (26-3-1) (Light Heavyweight)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (22-6) vs. Muslim Salikhov (16-2) (Welterweight)
Makwan Amirkhani (15-4) vs. Danny Henry (12-3) (Featherweight)
Leonardo Santos (17-3-1) vs. Roman Bogatov (10-0) (Lightweight)

Preliminary Card (ESPN/ESPN+)

Marcin Tybura (18-6) vs. Maxim Grishin (30-7-2) (Heavyweight)
Raulian Paiva (19-3) vs. Zhalgas Zhumagulov (13-3) (Flyweight)
Karol Rosa (12-3) vs. Vanessa Melo (10-7) (Women's Bantamweight)
Davey Grant (11-4) vs. Martin Day (8-3) (Bantamweight)

Other

- A bout between Kamaru Usman and Gilbert Burns was expected to headline the event. However, it was announced on July 3 that Burns was pulled from the contest after he and his coach, Greg Jones, tested positive for COVID-19. Jorge Masvidal replaced Burns on July 5.
- A heavyweight bout between Marcin Tybura between Alexander Romanov was scheduled for the event. However, Romanov was pulled from the event for an unknown reason and replaced by promotional newcomer Maxim Grishin on July 3.

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Rekrul is a newbLast edit: 09/07/2020 02:32

PuertoRican   United States. Jul 01 2020 22:19. Posts 12007



----------

First impression of the match-ups:

• Usman > Burns
• Holloway > Volkanovski
• Yan > Aldo
• Andrade > Namajunas
• Ribas > PVZ
• Prochazka > Oezdemir
• Santos > Salikhov
• Henry > Amirkhani
• Santos vs. Bogatov (dunno)
• Tybura vs. Romanov (dunno)
• Paiva vs. Zhumagulov (dunno)
• Rosa > Melo
• Day > Grant

Rekrul is a newb 

PuertoRican   United States. Jul 01 2020 22:20. Posts 12007





Rekrul is a newbLast edit: 02/07/2020 22:47

captainhook   . Jul 02 2020 10:11. Posts 189

You think Burns could get lucky vs Woodley?

I mean is it worth risking some on Burns at the current line?

And I'm leaning Holloway... He could make some adjustments like checking the leg kicks and could be starting the fight at south paw, anticipating Volkanovski's approach with a knee. Dunno...

 Last edit: 02/07/2020 11:20

captainhook   . Jul 02 2020 14:21. Posts 189

Just watched Burns vs Woodley again. I think Burns is slightly better at striking compared to Covington? If the line was any better, I think under 4.5 rounds could be a good bet.


PuertoRican   United States. Jul 04 2020 04:37. Posts 12007

Rekrul is a newb 

captainhook   . Jul 04 2020 11:36. Posts 189

NOOOOOO!

Oh and just heard that Khabib's dad died too. Could that put him to early retirement?

 Last edit: 04/07/2020 11:38

captainhook   . Jul 06 2020 00:13. Posts 189

Looks like it's gonna be Masvidal vs Usman. I'm getting anything under 3.5 - 4.5 that's priced decent.


Spitfiree   Bulgaria. Jul 06 2020 10:49. Posts 9207

Oh damn, I think a short notice fight is the only way Masvidal has a chance to win this. This is gonna be good (Unless Kamaru lies on top of him for 5 rounds ofc)

 Last edit: 06/07/2020 10:49

PuertoRican   United States. Jul 06 2020 11:54. Posts 12007

I was going to bet $1k on Usman -200 or better against Burns. I don't feel as confident now that Usman is fighting Masvidal.

I am currently waiting to see what the Under will be priced at. Assuming it's set at 4.5 rounds.

Rekrul is a newb 

captainhook   . Jul 06 2020 12:00. Posts 189

^ Yup! Same same.

Are you gonna be in the next podcast? The last one wasn't the same...

 Last edit: 06/07/2020 12:04

PuertoRican   United States. Jul 06 2020 12:12. Posts 12007


  On July 06 2020 11:00 captainhook wrote:
^ Yup! Same same.

Are you gonna be in the next podcast? The last one wasn't the same...


Yeah. I'll likely be in it.

Rekrul is a newb 

PuertoRican   United States. Jul 07 2020 03:59. Posts 12007


Rekrul is a newb 

captainhook   . Jul 07 2020 05:27. Posts 189



Rent Free MMA picks (without Puertorican):

Paiva vs Zhumagulov - Paiva ML at -175

Tybura vs Grishin - Tybura ML at -105

Santos vs Bogarov - Santos ML at -175

Dos Santos vs Salikov - over 2.5 at -110

Prochazka vs Oezdemir - Oezdemir ML at -165

Andrade vs Namajunas - Namajunas ML -210

Yan vs Aldo - Aldo ML at +200

Volk vs Holloway - Volk ML at -235

Usman vs Masvidal - Masvidal ML at +235

What do you guys think?


PuertoRican   United States. Jul 08 2020 01:09. Posts 12007










I'll be adding the rest of my bets in 2-3 days when I get to Las Vegas.

Rekrul is a newb 

captainhook   . Jul 08 2020 02:20. Posts 189

Curious on your Andrade pick. You think the first bout has a huge psychological effect on Namajunas? Judging from that bout, I couldn't think of any way how Namajunas could lose here.


PuertoRican   United States. Jul 08 2020 02:34. Posts 12007


  On July 08 2020 01:20 captainhook wrote:
Curious on your Andrade pick. You think the first bout has a huge psychological effect on Namajunas? Judging from that bout, I couldn't think of any way how Namajunas could lose here.


Depending who you ask, 5 rounds favors Andrade more than it does Namajunas.

This fight is 3 rounds. I think Andrade is going to be able to empty the tank with strikes and get multiple take downs (pick-ups/throws/dumps) in every round to win a decision -- possibly a TKO.

Round 1 is always Namajunas' bets round. She gets worse with each round after R1. I plan to live bet this fight (all fights), as Andrade will most likely win and dominate R3.

Rekrul is a newb 

captainhook   . Jul 08 2020 07:07. Posts 189


  On July 08 2020 01:34 PuertoRican wrote:
Show nested quote +


Depending who you ask, 5 rounds favors Andrade more than it does Namajunas.

This fight is 3 rounds. I think Andrade is going to be able to empty the tank with strikes and get multiple take downs (pick-ups/throws/dumps) in every round to win a decision -- possibly a TKO.

Round 1 is always Namajunas' bets round. She gets worse with each round after R1. I plan to live bet this fight (all fights), as Andrade will most likely win and dominate R3.


You don't think Namajunas could maintain sticking and moving for the whole three rounds this time around?

I think I gotta watch the first fight again and see how Namajunas got her back at the cage..


PuertoRican   United States. Jul 08 2020 07:48. Posts 12007


  On July 08 2020 06:07 captainhook wrote:
Show nested quote +



You don't think Namajunas could maintain sticking and moving for the whole three rounds this time around?

I think I gotta watch the first fight again and see how Namajunas got her back at the cage..


Even if Namajunas wins a decision, it's highly unlikely that she wins Round 3. She starts fast and slows down, while Andrade keeps the same high pace for 3 rounds and has even shown to turn it up in Round 3, since her opponents don't have as good of a gas tank as her.

That being said, Namajunas is a -210 favorite for a reason. I just think that Andrade will win again, and any dog odds are great for me.

I already bet Andrade +180 around 2 weeks ago.

Rekrul is a newb 

captainhook   . Jul 08 2020 11:43. Posts 189


  On July 08 2020 06:48 PuertoRican wrote:
Show nested quote +


Even if Namajunas wins a decision, it's highly unlikely that she wins Round 3. She starts fast and slows down, while Andrade keeps the same high pace for 3 rounds and has even shown to turn it up in Round 3, since her opponents don't have as good of a gas tank as her.

That being said, Namajunas is a -210 favorite for a reason. I just think that Andrade will win again, and any dog odds are great for me.

I already bet Andrade +180 around 2 weeks ago.



Nono.. It's not that I don't think you're right. I'm just trying to learn and pick some info here and there by asking these questions.

Anway, who you got for the main event? Already dropped something something on Masvidal. Lol. But what do you think of the under 4.5 at -165?


 
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