If you take the short cut to San Francisco and clean it up, I can probably fly to Moscow, then we both meet in southeast Asia to finish it off alright?
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LemOn[5thF] Czech Republic. Mar 12 2020 01:04. Posts 15163
The fuck is that image lol
93% Sure!
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LemOn[5thF] Czech Republic. Mar 12 2020 01:05. Posts 15163
I love it
Taught me prevention I had a lot of colds
The 30s needed to kill viruses on hands with soap especially I wasn't doing
93% Sure!
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LemOn[5thF] Czech Republic. Mar 12 2020 01:08. Posts 15163
I assume a lot of people are in the same boat and the pandemic will teach prevention
Especially teach people that they shouldn't just work through The Flu or go to public without face cover
And how to cough.
Right now people are oblivious, even Biden let out a deep spontaneous cough during and interview - right into his palms just yesterday or something
On March 12 2020 00:08 LemOn[5thF] wrote:
I assume a lot of people are in the same boat and the pandemic will teach prevention
Especially teach people that they shouldn't just work through The Flu or go to public without face cover
And how to cough.
Right now people are oblivious, even Biden let out a deep spontaneous cough during and interview - right into his palms just yesterday or something
East Asians have learned these things with other outbrakes, now the west will have to learn a painful lesson.
The US just shut down all incoming flights from Europe!
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3
PuertoRican United States. Mar 12 2020 07:58. Posts 13044
Traveling again this year seems less likely.
Korea is where I like to visit every summer, but that doesn't seem like an option since KoreanAir (and probably other airlines) suspended travel to Korea from USA / to USA from Korea until April 25 at the earliest. I also wanted to visit Italy, but that doesn't seem like an option either...
I teach at a middle school. No idea if we will close the school anytime soon, or keep teaching. I know the nearby university sent out an email saying the remaining classes will be taught online. Also, the NASA center near my home recently shut down due to the virus -- no idea how long it will stay closed.
Rekrul is a newb
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Santafairy Korea (South). Mar 12 2020 11:58. Posts 2225
wrong Baal Madagascar was the first to close its borders
It seems to be not very profitable in the long run to play those kind of hands. - Gus Hansen
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neekerimies Afghanistan. Mar 12 2020 12:14. Posts 7
Is it true that it doesn't kill white people? Could do some good.
Trump had a meeting with Brazil's ?security defense minister? who now tested positive for corona, jokes aside US's political class could potentially suffer the most considering their age.
All IT companies are preparing to go full work from home for all employees, I'd say food delivery businesses will have one of their best months
Then they announced a state of emergency a few hours later. Imagine having this monkey as your fucking leader of the country for the past 10 years and still being the best alternative compared to pure communistic piece of dogshit.
thailand def underreporting cases
afaik is the country with most chinese tourists in the world, and 2 weeks ago there was literally nothing done to stop the virus, and still under 100 confirmed cases LOL
my friend came from europe and asked at airport immigration for alcohol gel or whatever is called when he put his finger to scan his fingerprints, immigration officer said they didnt have anything like that
took him 5 min to go past immigration
Dont listen to anything I say
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Stroggoz New Zealand. Mar 13 2020 19:20. Posts 5296
On March 13 2020 09:27 Liquid`Drone wrote:
is that picture considered space now? Cuz it looks like from a low flying airplane.
lol, high res camera's from space
One of 3 non decent human beings on a site of 5 people with between 2-3 decent human beings
hungary is getting a lock down aswell. just like the rest of the eu countries
how is it possible that we can travel to outer space and build fusion reactors yet a tiny virus generates absolute chaos on the planet in weeks? im both amazed and sad
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casinocasino Canada. Mar 13 2020 20:20. Posts 3343
I better leave to the US before they lock boarders out of the Canada
I am most worried that the world experts on this are in full blown panic mode but most of the world post memes and says it is like a stronger flu. I read up a bit about the Spanish Flu and we might talk about a 1-2 year long period (like back then) or even seasonal issues. This seems so much more severe than the news makes it out to be right now and it might be mainly to keep people calm and not increase hysteria. Ethical and moral concerns aside, this could be the best time in our recent lives to make money at the stox market, if you know what you are doing. Very weird times, almost surreal
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Stroggoz New Zealand. Mar 13 2020 21:29. Posts 5296
some 17 year old made a site that scraps the global news media for data on the virus, it updates every minute. Quite a good resource:
One of 3 non decent human beings on a site of 5 people with between 2-3 decent human beings
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Stroggoz New Zealand. Mar 13 2020 21:31. Posts 5296
On March 13 2020 18:38 dnagardi wrote:
hungary is getting a lock down aswell. just like the rest of the eu countries
how is it possible that we can travel to outer space and build fusion reactors yet a tiny virus generates absolute chaos on the planet in weeks? im both amazed and sad
containing an infectious virus that has already spread to different continents is far more difficult and intellectually demanding than putting someone in space.
One of 3 non decent human beings on a site of 5 people with between 2-3 decent human beings
I mean we should be able to get a hold of it with good isolation / better tests and eventually drugs/vaccines but then again maybe the Spanish flu spread a lot slower due to the fact that travel was very different back then. I am not sure but it is morbidly fascinating. Like watching a car crash in slow-motion
I also don't get why you think China handled the virus badly even though it seems like they literally stopped the exponential growth at 80k cases while being a 1.5 billion nation, while someone like Italy already 'beat' them in the deaths per day count @ FisheYe
I also don't get how can Canada's minister of health sleeps at night with comments as stupid as 'closing borders is bad cause travelers will travel'. Spoiler alert, idiots will be idiots regardless of the measures, taking measures justs decreases the number of idiots you have to deal with though. An argument that closing borders are bad could be made but that's definitely not it. e.g. by the time those measures are set, and how the virus is spreading .. it literally won't change much in the RNG of spreading the virus.
I only hope that the economical impact this virus is going to have won't forever change things like a Black Swan. With all the border closing, nationalistic tendencies in politics in Europe and all the panic I could easily see this evolving into the destruction of the EU, hopefully such edge scenarios wont occur though
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Liquid`Drone Norway. Mar 14 2020 02:01. Posts 3093
china handled it fantastically, but dunno if it's plausible to execute that kind of response in any western country. ;p
lol POKER
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hiems United States. Mar 14 2020 02:09. Posts 2979
Anyome know general time line of how long it takes from being symptomatic -->> death for an average patient who does end up dying?
I beat Loco!!! [img]https://i.imgur.com/wkwWj2d.png[/img]
On March 14 2020 01:09 hiems wrote:
Anyome know general time line of how long it takes from being symptomatic -->> death for an average patient who does end up dying?
It probably varies widely since the hospitalizatio and ICU required times are very long
On March 14 2020 01:01 Liquid`Drone wrote:
china handled it fantastically, but dunno if it's plausible to execute that kind of response in any western country. ;p
They attempted to supress it, punished whistleblowers and it was only when the coverup was an imminent fail that they went nuclear with the measures, not that it would have mattered much, the west simply didn't care because they didn't understand the risks.
The WHO director is a joke, he was the first to advise to not ban travel from China, how do you get to the head of the front against pandemics while being such an incompetent fool?
Eastern ansia learned their lesson with the previous outbreaks, the west is culturally unprepared, nobody wears masks and everybody minimizes it and were all about "the flue kill more" stance.
I dont remember who's quote it is but it was something like: humanity demise will come from not understanding the quadratic function
Santafairy Korea (South). Mar 14 2020 04:35. Posts 2225
did anyone get my madagascar joke?
also china has a strong state which has advantages in terms of they can just order the army in to build hospitals and respond if there's an emergency
i don't see the EU having that capability but i don't know about the EU either
our esteemed president didn't listen to doctors who said to ban travel much earlier
so seeing the EU and liberals go "muh drumpf, he didn't consult us before he made a travel ban" that doesn't make sense
hey iran we see you have coronavirus is it serious? do you think we should halt travel from your country? "no it's fine iran stronk" - iranian government. oh okay they said it's okay we consulted them so it's no problem... oops now a bunch of countries are infected because of iran because they lied or didn't know what was going on
It seems to be not very profitable in the long run to play those kind of hands. - Gus Hansen
I think we should observe Italy very closely... their future is the future of Europe and north america, if this lockdown doesnt stop the spread its going to uglier than almost anybody is imagining.
Also if weather has no effect, countries like India, Indonesia Pakistan are going to be the worst affected
Ex-PokerStars Team Pro Online
1
Santafairy Korea (South). Mar 14 2020 06:04. Posts 2225
i don't imagine fever and pneumonia are better in sweltering humidity
but why IS flu seasonal though?
It seems to be not very profitable in the long run to play those kind of hands. - Gus Hansen
On March 14 2020 05:04 Santafairy wrote:
i don't imagine fever and pneumonia are better in sweltering humidity
but why IS flu seasonal though?
Airborne viruses travel further distances in low-humidity since they don't get trapped in water particles in the air, also heat kills the virus quicker while airborne, so cold + dry is ideal for seasonal influenza.
afaik it is not known yet how weathera affects SARS COVID 2 though, it looks like the southern hemisphere is doing better but also the southern hemisphere has shit government/infrastructure and they don't report accurately so we dont know.
Ex-PokerStars Team Pro Online
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PuertoRican United States. Mar 14 2020 08:09. Posts 13044
On March 12 2020 15:40 Liquid`Drone wrote:
schools in norway closed today, guessing i have a month off work or something like that now.
Couldve been worse!
The county I teach in closed all of the schools today (in California). We have at least 3 weeks off from work, but we still have to upload work for students to do on Google Classroom.
I am excited to catch-up on the Netflix shows I have missed since last summer, but I am sad that my travel plans are likely ruined for the rest of 2020. Even Las Vegas has shut down many businesses in the last 2-3 days, and more are soon to come (I was in Vegas last weekend, and everything was fine).
I think China handled some of the measures well, but if it really originated from China then they are partly at fault that it could spread so wide and that the world wasn't informed correctly when scientist understood what was going on. Also the doctor finding out about it and trying to warn the world... just seems like a nice coincidence that he died at 31 years of age after being silenced before. There are worse conspiracies out there.
As mentioned to Baal via PM, my thread was taken down, I understand why it would seem good to have only one but I disagree in this case. Coronavirus issues and drama will stay with us for the next months and I want to have as many information and discussions as possible to be informed and prepared. Not only for me but mainly for people that are at a higher risk group or ppl that are not informed and spread it like wildfire. I actually posted it 3 separate times on reddit and 1 time on teamliquid and it was taken down for sensationalism (even tho I was just asking for numbers and projections). When there are scam postings or useless postings admins take their good while to act but when we are talking about a pandemic and peope think its a milder version of the flu.... Hey lets close these discussions, this is a poker / starcraft / reddit forum. Seems like totally misunderstanding what we are dealing with and why spreading MORE information is important (and not to over-dramatize, can save lives). Think about it for a second please
Last edit: 14/03/2020 13:19
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LemOn[5thF] Czech Republic. Mar 14 2020 13:09. Posts 15163
Theres like 5 people here
we don't need two fucking threads chief :D
China was doing china
Trying to protect PR and sweep it under the rug - they couldn't have known it will be this severe I guess
And then they were way more effective in curbing the actual outbreak when they did admit it
Because dictatorships are better prepared for this
Concerning thing is shortages of respirators and face covers in general
In Prague police is around all the closed shops (just food , electronics and essentials are open ) to give info etc. but none have respirators
There's no chance for general public to get them
Where china would lock you up if you left the house without one
Keep in mind we are in the beginnings. How long will police men stand outside and work for the government until they realize, they are basically the front line meat shield. If it is true and some severe cases that don't die can have 30-40% loss of lung capacities (like with pneumonia), then there is gonna be a lot more worry for those that are not old and think they are invulnerable to it.
The behavior of people in Germany is crazy, when you go down the street the restaurants are still full. People standing 10 cm from each other talking about what a weird time it is and that their boss told them they should stay home for a bit. I am not the panicky type but I literally feel like in a movie right before the storm starts. In Italy some doctors have to choose between saving a 50 year old with 2 children or a grandma in her 80's. And of course the older lady has to die, because they cannot save enough lives as the system is failing over there. I think so far Italy has like a 7% fatality rate when infected and we unaware of how many people actually have it due to the lack of testing and infrastructure. If someone is dying TODAY, they were likely infected 2-3 weeks ago and could have spread it to many people (2-3 on average). The issue is not that 3, 4, 5, 10% of people infected die, the problem is if the measures are not taken early, exponential growth means that the world population is gonna get infected QUICKLY and too many people at the same time, so hospitals cannot help the severe cases and then more people die. There are EASY ways to fix the spread but governments are taking too much time to act out of fear of panics and financial downturns.
Global growth rate is currently estimated to be 1.31 today. Bare in mind that from what I have seen at a growth rate of 1.15 (not gonna stay there but lets assume), it will reach 100 Million people in a matter of weeks
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LemOn[5thF] Czech Republic. Mar 14 2020 13:46. Posts 15163
Well Czech republic closed borders
and closed all shops but utilities and food etc. pubs casinos...
Santafairy Korea (South). Mar 14 2020 18:30. Posts 2225
in fisheye's defense it's much better to have felt like you overreacted if it causes a better result, than to underreact and carry on as normal and exacerbate the problem
It seems to be not very profitable in the long run to play those kind of hands. - Gus Hansen
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bigredhoss Cook Islands. Mar 14 2020 19:03. Posts 8648
On March 14 2020 12:30 FiSheYe wrote:
I am not the panicky type but I literally feel like in a movie right before the storm starts.
please don't get offended by this but you totally are a panicky type lol
Not sure if this is in reaction to his posts here or due to previous interactions you've had with him, but his analysis seems pretty legitimate to me and his concerns are definitely valid. Of course a lot can change when you tweak a variable in an exponential equation, but the scenario he's afraid of certainly seems to be on the table based on all the data.
On March 14 2020 17:30 Santafairy wrote:
in fisheye's defense it's much better to have felt like you overreacted if it causes a better result, than to underreact and carry on as normal and exacerbate the problem
Well appreciated but it is clearly logically smarter to be overreacting, when it saves lives, than under-react when you possibly can be part of the issue and spread it by being too arrogant about the situation. I think the latter is true for a lot of global leaders and most of the population. It is a mixture of information asymmetry and Cognitive dissonance.
Where people are super high on 5g world order vaccine stuff and believe that there are micro chips in the milk and so forth but when there is a killer virus knocking on your door, that you cannot see and is highly infectious, then they relax and call it a flu.
Don't see the benefit of not taking this serious, as you might have a lot of self-hatred if it turns sour and the other way around worse case you look like a fool, which I am more than willing to be at this point and death toll.
Keep in mind this is the beginning of it (10weeks) and there are almost twice as many people dead as during 9/11. Without riots, food shortages, global financial meltdowns and country wide quarantines. Just ask yourself what made Wuhan so special and why does China take such harsh measures? To protect their citizens? It is a dictatorship, they did it because it was necessary and Wuhan could be anywhere if not taken serious. You think the USA say it is a global emergency because they want to (TRUMP? after he said multiple times it is not that bad?) Why are all the conspiracy people thinking now the governments are overplaying it? What is their benefit? To give us vaccines in 2 years? No, to save lives because it is worse than we are being told, that is why. The risk reward of not taking this serious seems beyond me, at least become filthy rich by understanding what is happening in the markets then. Otherwise you are just missing your health and wealth opportunities right now
On March 14 2020 12:30 FiSheYe wrote:
I am not the panicky type but I literally feel like in a movie right before the storm starts.
please don't get offended by this but you totally are a panicky type lol
Not sure if this is in reaction to his posts here or due to previous interactions you've had with him, but his analysis seems pretty legitimate to me and his concerns are definitely valid. Of course a lot can change when you tweak a variable in an exponential equation, but the scenario he's afraid of certainly seems to be on the table based on all the data.
Agreed. Also he doesn't know me, I am the non drama type that usually is very relaxed and in the last 35 years I only talked about the financial crisis once (2008). I don't ring the bells unless it is time to. Doesn't mean I am right but there are clearly scenarios where this can go VERY, VERY wrong. And people spreading it and not staying home and talking about the flu or that everyone gets it anyways are part of the problem and kill others by increasing the growth rate. The worst part is they will not even understand it and then blame others later on for all the misinformation and that they weren't warned properly. That stuff makes me angry, especially when all they need to do is listen and think. If you are very stupid then ok, but if you are just ignorant to the numbers and experts then we have a problem here
Btw. 1 week ago I told people to stay cool and that the flu kills many more people each year and that SARS and MERS weren't that dangerous and the media is just blowing it out of proportion... Until a friend who is super rational told me to be careful and stay safe and that things will get really ugly, who is doing all the research and pretty much a free thinker. I looked closer into it and saw who is alarming the population. People like Nassim Taleb (Black Swan, Anti-fragility) and very rational investor types that are usually calling Bullshit on these things. THEY are the ones in full panic mode, the ones that are staying cool is your average Joe who wants to go to his bar and have a few beers. That is the worrying part, the majority is still in business as usual mode because we are a few weeks behind China and Italy/Iran. When you realize it you might already have spread it to your parents and grand parents. I hope they are understanding when you tell them it is just a flu and they have severe symptoms.
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LemOn[5thF] Czech Republic. Mar 14 2020 20:24. Posts 15163
On March 14 2020 17:30 Santafairy wrote:
in fisheye's defense it's much better to have felt like you overreacted if it causes a better result, than to underreact and carry on as normal and exacerbate the problem
Well appreciated but it is clearly logically smarter to be overreacting, when it saves lives, than under-react when you possibly can be part of the issue and spread it by being too arrogant about the situation. I think the latter is true for a lot of global leaders and most of the population. It is a mixture of information asymmetry and Cognitive dissonance.
Where people are super high on 5g world order vaccine stuff and believe that there are micro chips in the milk and so forth but when there is a killer virus knocking on your door, that you cannot see and is highly infectious, then they relax and call it a flu.
Don't see the benefit of not taking this serious, as you might have a lot of self-hatred if it turns sour and the other way around worse case you look like a fool, which I am more than willing to be at this point and death toll.
Keep in mind this is the beginning of it (10weeks) and there are almost twice as many people dead as during 9/11. Without riots, food shortages, global financial meltdowns and country wide quarantines. Just ask yourself what made Wuhan so special and why does China take such harsh measures? To protect their citizens? It is a dictatorship, they did it because it was necessary and Wuhan could be anywhere if not taken serious. You think the USA say it is a global emergency because they want to (TRUMP? after he said multiple times it is not that bad?) Why are all the conspiracy people thinking now the governments are overplaying it? What is their benefit? To give us vaccines in 2 years? No, to save lives because it is worse than we are being told, that is why. The risk reward of not taking this serious seems beyond me, at least become filthy rich by understanding what is happening in the markets then. Otherwise you are just missing your health and wealth opportunities right now
One thing is that stress weakens immune systems and actually adds to spreading of the disease right?
You need to strike some sort of balance as a politician
Where you use legislation and enforce things that combat the spread ASAP
Change people's habits
While avoiding panic
People are irresponsible and meet in pubs? They closed them at 8pm
They just got drunk earlier? Closed all pubs and restaurants altogether
But now those people went to shopping malls...
Government closed all of them but food too
I think it was actually all pre-planned and they did this stuff in waves
5000k people events banned => 100 people => 30 people
Same with borders
same with phasing out pubs etc. every other day they tighten restrictions instead of drastic one off change, to avoid panic and at least somewhat manage stress levels
Respirators need to be used
But countries have respirator shortages
And need them for hospital
Are you going to say people have to wear respirators? No, because you cause panic
In fact my country BANNED sale of respirators to general public for that reason
My country just banned everything in the same day. If you're capable of working from home you should and your employer can't do shit about it.
Malls closed
Restaurants closed
Every public place apart from supermarkets, drug stores, banks and gas stations is closed
Police is controlling supermarkets entry points
Small to mid businesses will really suffer. I can't imagine the aftermath of this virus but it will be tough
Some bitch with a cafe in the city center of a small town left her coffee opened cause she's the wife of the mayor apparently, hope they'll both get wrecked now.
Let's see if it holds the exponential growth... Started with 4 cases 4 days ago, 41 cases today with an elderly couple dead (wife died first, the husband died next day that's a real feelsbadman )
Last edit: 14/03/2020 20:39
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LemOn[5thF] Czech Republic. Mar 14 2020 20:42. Posts 15163
I mean big issue is that the announcements make people flock to supermarkets when they make these big steps
My country's gradual steps (a few days apart only tho) probably helped
But you basically force people to mass trying to get food... and they still do every time restrictions get tightened.
Wuhan had mandatory face masks and temperature checks if you wanted to get anywhere, but it's going to be hard to enforce in western countries
Where even quarantined northern italy with all it's issues has well stocked shops apparently
Just 1 person can go from a household, you fill a form why you are outside
and there is mandatory distance for people
Yeah taking this lightly is definitely worse than overreacting I agree with that for sure. I'm sure that's what the who and politicians are doing sending out messages like that. And you make a lot of good points btw, but I think you're being very creative at finding all the negatives and not considering any positives
I think for society a lot of good can come from this
- we might suddenly be wiling to spend more resources preparing for a stronger viral outbreak in the future
- maybe companies will find out that working remote can really work. That would be a huge boon to society imo
- people's hygiene may improve
- it might be a chance for AI tech to shine as it really is useful in a research setting like looking for a vaccine
- Same with VR as it can enable remote work or having large gatherings without the risks.
- a lot of airfare is just people in suits going to another country to basically watch the company video. By the numbers it's "terrible for the economy" when we do less ritualistic stuff like that but in the long run I think we're better off just doing stuff that makes some sense
- maybe some people will actually take the opportunity to study inside while they can't get plastered in a bar
- There are also a lot of countries where nothing significant is going wrong. You keep seeing the same graph online with like 6-7 countries listed, all of which were early victims so they had less data to be prepared.
the main reason why I think media and politicians are overblowing (not underrepping as you think) is because that's what happened with literally every disaster before this. Sensationalism is a real thing in the media and it's hard for me to take them all that seriously when they say that the world is about to end every single time we face any real adversity. Just google for newspaper headlines of previous disasters (whether they were viruses or something else) and you find a ton of really funny stuff.
In the who video you linked, a lot fo the stuff the who statistician says is actually really reasonable. He uses a lot of words like "could" and "in the worst case" and "if we don't act". There are also a lot of positive elements to his message, like how dramatic the improvements are when you take some simple countermeasures. But then some newspaper is gonna take that and make the headlines "EXPONENTIAL GRAPH = 100 MILLION DEATHS" and I feel many people don't look past that
I can get on board with the human drama of this (even one person dying is always a drama) but especially when you start talking about finance, please don't throw your wonderful stocks away because the tv is saying 24/7 that the world is on fire. They always say that society is about to collapse every time and so far they have been correct 0% of the time. I definitely think this is a good time to buy equities although I wouldn't be too aggressive either because you might get even better discounts later. Society is not going to break down and great businesses are not going to collapse. You might have to wait for years but stocks will reach all time highs like always. I'm not a big fan of bitcoin but if you believe in it you shouldn't change your mind because of coronavirus.
On March 14 2020 20:11 Jelle wrote:
Yeah taking this lightly is definitely worse than overreacting I agree with that for sure. I'm sure that's what the who and politicians are doing sending out messages like that. And you make a lot of good points btw, but I think you're being very creative at finding all the negatives and not considering any positives
I think for society a lot of good can come from this
- we might suddenly be wiling to spend more resources preparing for a stronger viral outbreak in the future
- maybe companies will find out that working remote can really work. That would be a huge boon to society imo
- people's hygiene may improve
- it might be a chance for AI tech to shine as it really is useful in a research setting like looking for a vaccine
- Same with VR as it can enable remote work or having large gatherings without the risks.
- a lot of airfare is just people in suits going to another country to basically watch the company video. By the numbers it's "terrible for the economy" when we do less ritualistic stuff like that but in the long run I think we're better off just doing stuff that makes some sense
- maybe some people will actually take the opportunity to study inside while they can't get plastered in a bar
- There are also a lot of countries where nothing significant is going wrong. You keep seeing the same graph online with like 6-7 countries listed, all of which were early victims so they had less data to be prepared.
the main reason why I think media and politicians are overblowing (not underrepping as you think) is because that's what happened with literally every disaster before this. Sensationalism is a real thing in the media and it's hard for me to take them all that seriously when they say that the world is about to end every single time we face any real adversity. Just google for newspaper headlines of previous disasters (whether they were viruses or something else) and you find a ton of really funny stuff.
In the who video you linked, a lot fo the stuff the who statistician says is actually really reasonable. He uses a lot of words like "could" and "in the worst case" and "if we don't act". There are also a lot of positive elements to his message, like how dramatic the improvements are when you take some simple countermeasures. But then some newspaper is gonna take that and make the headlines "EXPONENTIAL GRAPH = 100 MILLION DEATHS" and I feel many people don't look past that
I can get on board with the human drama of this (even one person dying is always a drama) but especially when you start talking about finance, please don't throw your wonderful stocks away because the tv is saying 24/7 that the world is on fire. They always say that society is about to collapse every time and so far they have been correct 0% of the time. I definitely think this is a good time to buy equities although I wouldn't be too aggressive either because you might get even better discounts later. Society is not going to break down and great businesses are not going to collapse. You might have to wait for years but stocks will reach all time highs like always. I'm not a big fan of bitcoin but if you believe in it you shouldn't change your mind because of coronavirus.
Jelle thank you for trying to have a good conversation here, my only purpose is the pursuit of truth (whatever it might be) and to alarm and help others to see through this mess. As I said one week ago I wasn't in panic mode. The video I linked is just some math guy that did calculations, has nothing to do with WHO, they are just some advertisement as far as I understand (also the WHO seems unable to communicate that way, just listen to their guys, they seem rather moronic). I don't mind your list of things that could improve afterwards but that was never the point. I am sure if all humans die nature will prosper like never before, but that doesn't mean I am positive if it would happen. I mainly post here to get good counter arguments for why this is not the worst crisis of my life-time and wherever I post and whoever I talk to, I get more worried not less. I am a very positive person and I am sure I will cope with the fact that millions can possibly die and I already forgive my friends for not listening now and in case I have to be there for them and give them condolences for their loved ones in a few months... But right now I just feel an immense burden and opportunity to speak out and tell my loved ones to be afraid and take precautions and not take it lightly. In some cases I have to have the same argument a couple times until it sinks in and there is still a good chance I am wrong about this all, but man it looks bad. Really bad and when you look deeply into the numbers this has all the signs of BIG TROUBLE written all over it. Keep in mind the Spanish Flu took 2-3 years to get those huge death numbers and we are in week 10 of the ongoing of the outbreak. If it would be a movie, this would be after the first song when they introduce actors and the first "sign" of doomsday appears. It hasn't even begun
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hiems United States. Mar 14 2020 22:10. Posts 2979
On March 14 2020 01:09 hiems wrote:
Anyome know general time line of how long it takes from being symptomatic -->> death for an average patient who does end up dying?
It probably varies widely since the hospitalizatio and ICU required times are very long
(talking mainly about USA)
I have been assuming that the number of cases in the US is much higher than reported because of the lack of availability for testing and the difficulty in being approved for the test. However, what I dont understand is that the number of reported DEATHS from coronavirus are still in proportion to the number of cases and still very low.
For example according to this stat, confirmed cases = 2,499. I don't think it's a stretch to think actual cases are much higher than that (say~20,000), but number of reported deaths =55 is very much in line with the cases number.
I don't think you can really sneak "deaths" behind people. I.e I don't think there are cases where X person fails to receive coronavirus test, DIES, and therefore is not classified as a coronavirus death because he/she has not been diagnosed via testing.
The only reasonable explanation is what then? Is this being caused by the lag time between catching the virus//being symptomatic to being sick enough to die? What else can it be? Am I just wrong to think that the actual number of cases is much higher than 2500? I really don't get it. Any ideas?
I beat Loco!!! [img]https://i.imgur.com/wkwWj2d.png[/img]
Last edit: 14/03/2020 22:12
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hiems United States. Mar 14 2020 22:15. Posts 2979
Also I kind of agree with Fisheye that there is some use for different thread types for Corona virus.
i.e
-Day-to-day stuff - are you guys canceling gym memberships or are you going to continue to go to the gym? are you going to help your parents with grocery shopping? (my parents are at an at-risk age so I am probably going to do their grocery shopping).
-investment related - what position is your portfolio at? are you buying the dip? what are you buying?
-general Corona virus stuff - kind of like this thread.
At the same time maybe in practice it could get kind of hectic if there are multiple threads tho.
I beat Loco!!! [img]https://i.imgur.com/wkwWj2d.png[/img]
On March 14 2020 19:13 FiSheYe wrote:
Btw. 1 week ago I told people to stay cool and that the flu kills many more people each year and that SARS and MERS weren't that dangerous and the media is just blowing it out of proportion... Until a friend who is super rational told me to be careful and stay safe and that things will get really ugly, who is doing all the research and pretty much a free thinker. I looked closer into it and saw who is alarming the population. People like Nassim Taleb (Black Swan, Anti-fragility) and very rational investor types that are usually calling Bullshit on these things. THEY are the ones in full panic mode, the ones that are staying cool is your average Joe who wants to go to his bar and have a few beers. That is the worrying part, the majority is still in business as usual mode because we are a few weeks behind China and Italy/Iran. When you realize it you might already have spread it to your parents and grand parents. I hope they are understanding when you tell them it is just a flu and they have severe symptoms.
Everybody who follows Nassim is worried (and correcty so) since day 1 of the Coronavirus.
Most people don't truly comprehend the cuadratic function, so our fear to these events come from a visceral disgust-based one which is shunned by most of society, so the ones who do understand these dangers are bunched along with the bunker-builder germaphobe crazies.
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bigredhoss Cook Islands. Mar 14 2020 23:59. Posts 8648
On March 14 2020 20:11 Jelle wrote:
Yeah taking this lightly is definitely worse than overreacting I agree with that for sure. I'm sure that's what the who and politicians are doing sending out messages like that. And you make a lot of good points btw, but I think you're being very creative at finding all the negatives and not considering any positives
I think for society a lot of good can come from this
- we might suddenly be wiling to spend more resources preparing for a stronger viral outbreak in the future
- maybe companies will find out that working remote can really work. That would be a huge boon to society imo
- people's hygiene may improve
- it might be a chance for AI tech to shine as it really is useful in a research setting like looking for a vaccine
- Same with VR as it can enable remote work or having large gatherings without the risks.
- a lot of airfare is just people in suits going to another country to basically watch the company video. By the numbers it's "terrible for the economy" when we do less ritualistic stuff like that but in the long run I think we're better off just doing stuff that makes some sense
- maybe some people will actually take the opportunity to study inside while they can't get plastered in a bar
- There are also a lot of countries where nothing significant is going wrong. You keep seeing the same graph online with like 6-7 countries listed, all of which were early victims so they had less data to be prepared.
the main reason why I think media and politicians are overblowing (not underrepping as you think) is because that's what happened with literally every disaster before this. Sensationalism is a real thing in the media and it's hard for me to take them all that seriously when they say that the world is about to end every single time we face any real adversity. Just google for newspaper headlines of previous disasters (whether they were viruses or something else) and you find a ton of really funny stuff.
In the who video you linked, a lot fo the stuff the who statistician says is actually really reasonable. He uses a lot of words like "could" and "in the worst case" and "if we don't act". There are also a lot of positive elements to his message, like how dramatic the improvements are when you take some simple countermeasures. But then some newspaper is gonna take that and make the headlines "EXPONENTIAL GRAPH = 100 MILLION DEATHS" and I feel many people don't look past that
I can get on board with the human drama of this (even one person dying is always a drama) but especially when you start talking about finance, please don't throw your wonderful stocks away because the tv is saying 24/7 that the world is on fire. They always say that society is about to collapse every time and so far they have been correct 0% of the time. I definitely think this is a good time to buy equities although I wouldn't be too aggressive either because you might get even better discounts later. Society is not going to break down and great businesses are not going to collapse. You might have to wait for years but stocks will reach all time highs like always. I'm not a big fan of bitcoin but if you believe in it you shouldn't change your mind because of coronavirus.
Dude, have you actually looked at the research and analysis that has been done about this? The WHO and most politicians have been comically under-reacting for most of the past 2+ months. Is your entire position based on this meta-analysis of the news and presumption that they always blow these things out of proportion? No offense, but this is exactly the kind of lazy and uneducated take that leads to the situation the world is in now. The image you posted is case in point. Ebola makes for much better tabloid fodder (extremely high death rate), yet it didn't get nearly the kind of reaction from scientists and governments as CV.
1. It's trivial to see from the R0 and mortality rates that Ebola, SARS, and MERS were never in the same league as CV is in terms of potential damage. It's not the Spanish Flu, but it's closer to that than it is to anything we've had since the Spanish Flu.
2. If you insist on not doing any research and meta-consuming news headlines, please consider the following:
-The short, headline-catching facts of CV are set up perfectly for people to under-react to it. "Just a bad flu", 0.2% death rate if you're not old, overall death rate also not a shockingly high number at first glance, "X0,000 people die each year from the flu, bro".
-People, as you have shown, are maximally numb right now to anything they perceive as sensationalist headlines because of the way the news cycle has evolved over the past few years. It's extraordinarily difficult to try and sell Joe Blow on the idea that he should cancel non-urgent travel plans and self-isolate for a month or more because of something that has a 1 in 500 chance of killing him if he even catches it, and (assuming he's not from China/Italy/Iran/Spain) has killed less than 100 people in his country. And yet that is what the WHO and governments are (finally) advising - or in some cases mandating.
-It is extraordinarily difficult to convince sports leagues, event promoters, etc. that they need to lose out on billions of dollars of revenue for...well, any reason. And yet major games, events, etc. are being canceled.
3. There is still a very wide range of possible outcomes, depending on what levels governments go to isolate people and how people comply, what extent warm and humid weather has on the spread (I think the data is still unclear about this), and how well countries are able to ramp up their health care capacity so that they aren't overwhelmed when the disease reaches its peak. I suppose there is some irony in that if countries take very aggressive and effective preventative measures, the resulting death toll numbers will look a bit like this was never that big of a deal in the first place. But if governments prepare for for the bottom 20 percentile worst case scenario, we are completely fucked if the bottom 2 percentile scenario happens (to be fair I think you implicitly acknowledged this).
4. From a probability standpoint the majority of the mega-bad outcomes from this are in the long tail of the probability distribution. 8-figure worldwide deaths may not be a likely outcome at this point, but such figures are also not a figment of the imagination of over-reactive journalists who are over-extrapolating data as you seem to imply.
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Last edit: 15/03/2020 00:04
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LemOn[5thF] Czech Republic. Mar 15 2020 00:02. Posts 15163
So what's your shopping strategy boys
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1
bigredhoss Cook Islands. Mar 15 2020 00:19. Posts 8648
On March 14 2020 01:09 hiems wrote:
Anyome know general time line of how long it takes from being symptomatic -->> death for an average patient who does end up dying?
It probably varies widely since the hospitalizatio and ICU required times are very long
(talking mainly about USA)
I have been assuming that the number of cases in the US is much higher than reported because of the lack of availability for testing and the difficulty in being approved for the test. However, what I dont understand is that the number of reported DEATHS from coronavirus are still in proportion to the number of cases and still very low.
For example according to this stat, confirmed cases = 2,499. I don't think it's a stretch to think actual cases are much higher than that (say~20,000), but number of reported deaths =55 is very much in line with the cases number.
I don't think you can really sneak "deaths" behind people. I.e I don't think there are cases where X person fails to receive coronavirus test, DIES, and therefore is not classified as a coronavirus death because he/she has not been diagnosed via testing.
The only reasonable explanation is what then? Is this being caused by the lag time between catching the virus//being symptomatic to being sick enough to die? What else can it be? Am I just wrong to think that the actual number of cases is much higher than 2500? I really don't get it. Any ideas?
Yes. Actual number of cases are much higher than reported, and death totals lag behind because people dying today are people who became infected weeks ago (death rate should be calculated as people dead today/people infected X weeks ago). For people doing back-of-the-envelope calculations, these things roughly cancel each other out when considering the mortality rate, so the actual death rate given now is presumed to be roughly accurate. Although this varies by country of course.
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1
bigredhoss Cook Islands. Mar 15 2020 00:44. Posts 8648
On March 14 2020 23:02 LemOn[5thF] wrote:
So what's your shopping strategy boys
I'm in China, so things are just getting back to normal =s
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1
Liquid`Drone Norway. Mar 15 2020 00:48. Posts 3093
On March 14 2020 01:09 hiems wrote:
Anyome know general time line of how long it takes from being symptomatic -->> death for an average patient who does end up dying?
It probably varies widely since the hospitalizatio and ICU required times are very long
(talking mainly about USA)
I have been assuming that the number of cases in the US is much higher than reported because of the lack of availability for testing and the difficulty in being approved for the test. However, what I dont understand is that the number of reported DEATHS from coronavirus are still in proportion to the number of cases and still very low.
For example according to this stat, confirmed cases = 2,499. I don't think it's a stretch to think actual cases are much higher than that (say~20,000), but number of reported deaths =55 is very much in line with the cases number.
I don't think you can really sneak "deaths" behind people. I.e I don't think there are cases where X person fails to receive coronavirus test, DIES, and therefore is not classified as a coronavirus death because he/she has not been diagnosed via testing.
The only reasonable explanation is what then? Is this being caused by the lag time between catching the virus//being symptomatic to being sick enough to die? What else can it be? Am I just wrong to think that the actual number of cases is much higher than 2500? I really don't get it. Any ideas?
Mortality rates are much lower if respirators are available to all infected people in need of them, a large number of infected only get fairly insignificant symptoms. Also fairly certain there's some lag.
I'm fairly certain you are correct in assuming that the number of cases is much higher than 2500, and in Italy where the current death toll is 1441, I'm fairly certain the number of infected is wayy higher than the 21k reported.
Can we start a discord or something along those lines? I think it would be important to have first hand anecdotes of people living in each country about what is really going on. I can help with Germany, others Italy, Norway etc. we have Mexico, USA. This seems a lot more valid than going through the media
China and Iran seem very unstable with their information policy and if this is much darker than we anticipate, it could be life saving to get good information from people we know or trust more than some random news site.
On March 14 2020 01:09 hiems wrote:
Anyome know general time line of how long it takes from being symptomatic -->> death for an average patient who does end up dying?
It probably varies widely since the hospitalizatio and ICU required times are very long
(talking mainly about USA)
I have been assuming that the number of cases in the US is much higher than reported because of the lack of availability for testing and the difficulty in being approved for the test. However, what I dont understand is that the number of reported DEATHS from coronavirus are still in proportion to the number of cases and still very low.
For example according to this stat, confirmed cases = 2,499. I don't think it's a stretch to think actual cases are much higher than that (say~20,000), but number of reported deaths =55 is very much in line with the cases number.
I don't think you can really sneak "deaths" behind people. I.e I don't think there are cases where X person fails to receive coronavirus test, DIES, and therefore is not classified as a coronavirus death because he/she has not been diagnosed via testing.
The only reasonable explanation is what then? Is this being caused by the lag time between catching the virus//being symptomatic to being sick enough to die? What else can it be? Am I just wrong to think that the actual number of cases is much higher than 2500? I really don't get it. Any ideas?
I think the numbers are way higher everywhere. Basically the more you test people, the more people have corona. However we know so little about it, there is a chance it already mutated in Italy and has become much more deadly. It could also be that South Korea has excellent hospitals and italy doesn't. Things surely don't add up right now. My best guess is USA will have a lot more deaths soon as we should not overvalue what "healed" or "still serious condition" means.
I also suspect that the fatality rate is not 6.8 like in Italy or 3.4 but rather 0.7-1.0, but it is way too early to say and also depends a lot on the average age of the society and other factors. I assume because Italians are way more touchy and life happens in groups and on the streets, they are the worst breeding ground for a virus, because it affects so many people quickly. But that is why I want to talk more about it, to get more reasonable thoughts and either you guys help me to understand or I help you.
Dude, have you actually looked at the research and analysis that has been done about this? The WHO and most politicians have been comically under-reacting for most of the past 2+ months. Is your entire position based on this meta-analysis of the news and presumption that they always blow these things out of proportion? No offense, but this is exactly the kind of lazy and uneducated take that leads to the situation the world is in now. The image you posted is case in point. Ebola makes for much better tabloid fodder (extremely high death rate), yet it didn't get nearly the kind of reaction from scientists and governments as CV.
1. It's trivial to see from the R0 and mortality rates that Ebola, SARS, and MERS were never in the same league as CV is in terms of potential damage. It's not the Spanish Flu, but it's closer to that than it is to anything we've had since the Spanish Flu.
2. If you insist on not doing any research and meta-consuming news headlines, please consider the following:
-The short, headline-catching facts of CV are set up perfectly for people to under-react to it. "Just a bad flu", 0.2% death rate if you're not old, overall death rate also not a shockingly high number at first glance, "X0,000 people die each year from the flu, bro".
-People, as you have shown, are maximally numb right now to anything they perceive as sensationalist headlines because of the way the news cycle has evolved over the past few years. It's extraordinarily difficult to try and sell Joe Blow on the idea that he should cancel non-urgent travel plans and self-isolate for a month or more because of something that has a 1 in 500 chance of killing him if he even catches it, and (assuming he's not from China/Italy/Iran/Spain) has killed less than 100 people in his country. And yet that is what the WHO and governments are (finally) advising - or in some cases mandating.
-It is extraordinarily difficult to convince sports leagues, event promoters, etc. that they need to lose out on billions of dollars of revenue for...well, any reason. And yet major games, events, etc. are being canceled.
3. There is still a very wide range of possible outcomes, depending on what levels governments go to isolate people and how people comply, what extent warm and humid weather has on the spread (I think the data is still unclear about this), and how well countries are able to ramp up their health care capacity so that they aren't overwhelmed when the disease reaches its peak. I suppose there is some irony in that if countries take very aggressive and effective preventative measures, the resulting death toll numbers will look a bit like this was never that big of a deal in the first place. But if governments prepare for for the bottom 20 percentile worst case scenario, we are completely fucked if the bottom 2 percentile scenario happens (to be fair I think you implicitly acknowledged this).
4. From a probability standpoint the majority of the mega-bad outcomes from this are in the long tail of the probability distribution. 8-figure worldwide deaths may not be a likely outcome at this point, but such figures are also not a figment of the imagination of over-reactive journalists who are over-extrapolating data as you seem to imply.
Thank you for your post mate. I started a discord server or will do so tomorrow to gather people to share these ideas / information. Preferably from different countries so we can have first hand anecdotes of what is happening and don't need to rely on news media as much. I am also not sure which scenario we are actually in but as you pointed out and as I feel myself, the way things are moving I suspect either a mutation or that the countries recently got more sensitive towards the real dangers of this. Either way, we should be more worried than less lately to make sure
On March 14 2020 23:02 LemOn[5thF] wrote:
So what's your shopping strategy boys
I'm in China, so things are just getting back to normal =s
Are they? I heard conflicting information on that, that it is nowhere near back to normal and that China could also face re-infections / 2nd wave outbreaks. Where in China are you? Great to have your information. I trust people here actually a lot more than official news about whats going on at the ground
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blackjacki2 United States. Mar 15 2020 02:11. Posts 2581
To say the media is blowing this thing up simply isn't true. This virus has been out for months now and the media has only started 24 hour coverage over really the past week. They could have been pushing a world-ending pandemic narrative since January if they wanted to scare people into higher ratings. Instead the coverage has come after things have gotten worse and not before. Listen to what the doctors in Italy are saying about people in the west that are complacent and think this is being overblown. Of course it doesn't seem bad early on but if this is allowed to spread then healthcare systems will be overrun.
People don't really appreciate the amount of time and resources this is going to use up in hospitals. I work in an emergency room on the west coast that has received corona positive patients. Here's our protocol now for cleaning a room that has a corona rule out patient. We have 2 negative pressure rooms and for other rooms we have portable HEPA filters that plug into the wall. For the rooms with the HEPA filters we leave them running for 2 hours after the patient has left and for the 2 negative pressure rooms we leave the rooms empty for 1 hour after the patient has left then for either room we get housekeeping to do a special clean. Normally it could take a tech 5 minutes to wipe down a room and get it ready for the next patient. There's a huge difference between flipping a room in 5 minutes vs 2-3 hours. Our wait times have gone from 2 hours to up to 8 hours. We've had 10+ staff furloughed for being exposed to positive patients without proper PPE. If this is just beginning then everyone is fucked.
On March 15 2020 01:11 blackjacki2 wrote:
To say the media is blowing this thing up simply isn't true. This virus has been out for months now and the media has only started 24 hour coverage over really the past week. They could have been pushing a world-ending pandemic narrative since January if they wanted to scare people into higher ratings. Instead the coverage has come after things have gotten worse and not before. Listen to what the doctors in Italy are saying about people in the west that are complacent and think this is being overblown. Of course it doesn't seem bad early on but if this is allowed to spread then healthcare systems will be overrun.
People don't really appreciate the amount of time and resources this is going to use up in hospitals. I work in an emergency room on the west coast that has received corona positive patients. Here's our protocol now for cleaning a room that has a corona rule out patient. We have 2 negative pressure rooms and for other rooms we have portable HEPA filters that plug into the wall. For the rooms with the HEPA filters we leave them running for 2 hours after the patient has left and for the 2 negative pressure rooms we leave the rooms empty for 1 hour after the patient has left then for either room we get housekeeping to do a special clean. Normally it could take a tech 5 minutes to wipe down a room and get it ready for the next patient. There's a huge difference between flipping a room in 5 minutes vs 2-3 hours. Our wait times have gone from 2 hours to up to 8 hours. We've had 10+ staff furloughed for being exposed to positive patients without proper PPE. If this is just beginning then everyone is fucked.
Thank you for your work man. I hope if anything this crisis gives us more appreciation for all those smaller and bigger angels out there doing good work so that people like me can survive in cases of emergency like this. I always thought there is not enough appreciation for you guys. My aunt is a retired doctor as well and she had two burn outs because she cared so much for the people and couldn't leave work early. Also got infected with hepatitis back in the day when she worked in emergency but fortunately was healed due to newer methods.
Jeah the US might be very interesting, just talked longer with Eri and it seems that the big difference to observe is how the US can handle this crisis. South Korea seems so well equipped to handle it, with their history, traditional mask hygiene and government obedience... whereas Italians with their touchiness and being a lot on the streets and outside / not as much testing etc. and a higher % of old people seem like the polar opposite case. Still it puzzles me that these factors make a difference between Korea (0.7% fatality or so) and Italy (6.8% ???). The 2 Numbers seems also obv. due to testing but it will be important for other countries to understand the huge disparity and learn from it. Hopefully this can avoid a scenario of such a wide spread infection in the population.
Does anybody know if Korea also suspects 40-70% of population being infected in the next 1-2 years like say Germany / Norway and so forth assume ? My hope is that Korea can do a better job and keep the infection very low / mortality rate below 1%. That would mean we could see a future with less than a Million deaths globally (very unlikely but possible at this point).
Last edit: 15/03/2020 02:39
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Santafairy Korea (South). Mar 15 2020 02:54. Posts 2225
You say Germany expects 40% but are you speaking for Germany or just for that one source that scared you
It seems to be not very profitable in the long run to play those kind of hands. - Gus Hansen
Actually Germany was supposed to be 60-70% within 1-2 years according to our own government experts.
Somehow nobody is questioning that number, as it came from the authorities but my hope is that for example South Korea could end up with a lot less infection in the population and a death rate far below 1%. So it is still very early to know, but there are big differences between how certain countries are handling this and it is reflected in deaths.
Last edit: 15/03/2020 03:07
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PuertoRican United States. Mar 15 2020 04:55. Posts 13044
It keeps track of the updates about CV and compiles it into one.
On the right side, it lists: Total infections; Total deaths; and Total recovered.
On the bottom of the page, it lists: Coronavirus infections by country; Coronavirus deaths by country; and Coronavirus Activity.
Rekrul is a newb
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PuertoRican United States. Mar 15 2020 06:06. Posts 13044
Rekrul is a newb
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LemOn[5thF] Czech Republic. Mar 15 2020 08:48. Posts 15163
Well there were some shenanigans here
Basically we have a prime minister guy that's pretty much the Czech Bloomberg.
And universal healthcare
And when it started officially just hospitals could do tests, that cost 5000czk (250USD), paid by universal healthcare insurance companies
And some private laboratories dared to test people individually for around $60
And the Czech Bloomberg, former secret police collaborator didn't like that and moved against the undercutting laboratories, slowing down testing especially initially and people are turned down
Now there's testing spots in tents infront of hospitals, and slow at home tests where medical staff goes there directly that has delays, Elky is waiting for that one
Biggest issues is lack of face masks
- Pharmacy workers and large chain supermarket staff are at risk as nobody has face masks and there are shortages, so you can't do a mandatory blanket face mask bill like China
93% Sure!
Last edit: 15/03/2020 08:49
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LemOn[5thF] Czech Republic. Mar 15 2020 08:55. Posts 15163
I'm not sure how productive what you're doing is at all Fisheye by the way, in a crisis like this people should focus on what they can change individually in their communities right now
You can e.g. make home made disinfectant and distribute it
Make sure your social circle does what they can and influence them
Do you really think spending this much time studying global trends and long term projections is a good use of your time?
93% Sure!
1
LemOn[5thF] Czech Republic. Mar 15 2020 09:23. Posts 15163
On March 14 2020 23:02 LemOn[5thF] wrote:
So what's your shopping strategy boys
I'm in China, so things are just getting back to normal =s
Well we have no temperature checks and literally nobodys wearing a face mask ( simply because country doesn't have them)
I'm trying to figure out when's the best time to go to avoid people and hit the shop when panic buyers didn't buy out that days' stock
And I assume walking is GTO instead of public transport
Walking outside with 3+metres between people should be reasonably safe I assume
I don't think going on walks and hikes is increasing the risk much when you avoid people?
93% Sure!
Last edit: 15/03/2020 09:26
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bigredhoss Cook Islands. Mar 15 2020 09:33. Posts 8648
On March 14 2020 23:02 LemOn[5thF] wrote:
So what's your shopping strategy boys
I'm in China, so things are just getting back to normal =s
Are they? I heard conflicting information on that, that it is nowhere near back to normal and that China could also face re-infections / 2nd wave outbreaks. Where in China are you? Great to have your information. I trust people here actually a lot more than official news about whats going on at the ground
Yeah sorry, I should clarify a little bit if people are going to take my words as a report of the situation here.
I'm in Dongguan (city in Southeast of China with about ~8 million people, near Guangzhou and Shenzhen; about 45 minute train ride to Hong Kong).
When I say things are getting back to normal, I mean more in the sense that they seem to have turned the corner. A month ago, almost EVERYTHING non-essential was shut down. Some supermarket chains stayed open on shortened hours, closing early in the evening instead of 10-11pm like usual. But every restaurant, cafe, convenience store, bike shop, etc. was completely closed. I would ride around the streets on my motorbike looking for something, and not only was everything closed, there were almost no vehicles on the road, which was super weird to see in a city of 8M people. You could feel the uneasiness and sense of paralysis in the air from everyone.
The thing is there is a confounding variable because this was during Chinese New Year holiday which is already normally a dead time of year because everyone goes back to their villages or on vacation somewhere. Anyway, after talking to people who have been here longer I confirmed that yes, it's normally dead during CNY, but no, not this dead.
Right now:
-Businesses are back to regular hours and there's more traffic, but outside of peak hours still less traffic than before the virus
-Everyone still wears masks whenever they go outside, and it's kind of remarkable to me how well everyone complies with this.
-People seem a lot more relaxed and good-natured. People are back to their normal activities - you see families playing badminton outside, walking their dogs, etc. (but still with masks)
-Anytime you want to go into a public building like a mall, restaurant, gated apartment complex, etc. you have to have your temperature taken.
-Everyone has their own personal QR codes that we are supposed to have ready to show the guards at out apartment complex if they want to scan, but in practice they just take a look to see that the QR code is there and wave people through. They store a lot of personal information about each person - a bit more than I'd like - but it is what it is.
-Foreigners who entered China after a certain date or left and came back to China after a certain date (I forget what the date is) have to be quarantined in their apartments for 14 days. They have to take a photo of their temperature every so often and send it to the officials, once in a while someone will come in and check on them to make sure they're not violating the quarantine. I've been going on grocery runs for a few people in my apartment complex that have to go through quarantine now. Also the 14-day quarantine thing is a Dongguan-specific policy, other cities may have different requirements.
So yeah, not quite business as usual. I was mostly thinking of #1 and 3 when I made the comment. As far as there being danger of a second wave, I have also heard about that, but I don't have any more info on that than anyone else.
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LemOn[5thF] Czech Republic. Mar 15 2020 10:09. Posts 15163
How'd you end up living in china anyways?
93% Sure!
1
bigredhoss Cook Islands. Mar 15 2020 10:32. Posts 8648
On March 15 2020 09:09 LemOn[5thF] wrote:
How'd you end up living in china anyways?
I teach high school math at an international school here.
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1
LemOn[5thF] Czech Republic. Mar 15 2020 11:17. Posts 15163
Interesting
I was worried about public transport
First instinct was that they'd limit or stop it
- they did it on student lines at first
- and my 100k people hometown changed to holiday schedules
But apparently the government might enforce the OPPOSITE
and try to add as many connections as possible and shorten intervals
to avoid cramping of people
On March 14 2020 22:59 bigredhoss wrote:
1. It's trivial to see from the R0 and mortality rates that Ebola, SARS, and MERS were never in the same league as CV is in terms of potential damage. It's not the Spanish Flu, but it's closer to that than it is to anything we've had since the Spanish Flu.
Yeah I definitely am not saying that. If Corona was like any of those and we got the current amount of panic though, wouldn't you agree with me that the reaction would be INSANELY overblown?
I think it's totally possible for both of these to be true at the same time
1. Corona is worse than any of the outbreaks you listed
2. People are still overreacting, society is not about to collapse
On March 14 2020 22:59 bigredhoss wrote:
2. If you insist on not doing any research and meta-consuming news headlines, please consider the following:
-The short, headline-catching facts of CV are set up perfectly for people to under-react to it. "Just a bad flu", 0.2% death rate if you're not old, overall death rate also not a shockingly high number at first glance, "X0,000 people die each year from the flu, bro".
You can also name only the impressive stats to overplay the dangers while ignoring the good news. E.g. "this is like ebola but way more contageous". But yeah the just flu bros are simply wrong. I don't think that opinion is very prevalent, it just gets retweeted alot on twitter because it's so outrageous.
On March 14 2020 22:59 bigredhoss wrote:
-People, as you have shown, are maximally numb right now to anything they perceive as sensationalist headlines because of the way the news cycle has evolved over the past few years. It's extraordinarily difficult to try and sell Joe Blow on the idea that he should cancel non-urgent travel plans and self-isolate for a month or more because of something that has a 1 in 500 chance of killing him if he even catches it, and (assuming he's not from China/Italy/Iran/Spain) has killed less than 100 people in his country. And yet that is what the WHO and governments are (finally) advising - or in some cases mandating.
Yeah I can't get any more numb with media headlines. If some truly earth-shattering event really happens I don't think the media can warn me anymore they've just conditioned me to ignore them forever.
The last time there was a tyfoon here in Tokyo I was a 5 min walk away from the worst-struck area and saw the actual reality of the situation and the media coverage both. On TV it looked literally 1000x worse than outside, the things they can do with selecting / editing footage from a huge selection into tiny segments is amazing. The idea of news under-representing a danger / being lax and not vigilant enough just seems so alien to me I can't really explain it.
On March 14 2020 22:59 bigredhoss wrote:
-It is extraordinarily difficult to convince sports leagues, event promoters, etc. that they need to lose out on billions of dollars of revenue for...well, any reason. And yet major games, events, etc. are being canceled.
I agree but doesn't that help my case? I actually don't think canceling big events is overreacting - we can do without sports leagues for a bit - but you know there's some serious fear in the air when you see big corps giving up money lol. Most big gatherings are just rituals that are in our human nature, I don't think we really *need* them
On March 14 2020 22:59 bigredhoss wrote:
3. There is still a very wide range of possible outcomes, depending on what levels governments go to isolate people and how people comply, what extent warm and humid weather has on the spread (I think the data is still unclear about this), and how well countries are able to ramp up their health care capacity so that they aren't overwhelmed when the disease reaches its peak. I suppose there is some irony in that if countries take very aggressive and effective preventative measures, the resulting death toll numbers will look a bit like this was never that big of a deal in the first place. But if governments prepare for for the bottom 20 percentile worst case scenario, we are completely fucked if the bottom 2 percentile scenario happens (to be fair I think you implicitly acknowledged this).
Yeah I agree with you 100%. I also think that after this blows over and things turn out be OK like always, team "not worried" will say "see? told u so" and team "impending zombie apocalypse" will say "all thanks to our timely warning & vigilance", hehe
Btw just to make sure when I am predicting that things will turn out OK and society is not going to collapse (and I think u agree with me on that), I am doing that including all the precautions etc. that people, businesses and governments have taken, as a given. I'm definitely NOT saying "we should have ignored this and done nothing, nothing would have gone wrong". From reading your posts I suspect we feel about the same level of risk, but we are way off on others' perception of risk (with me thinking other people act like the sky is falling, while you feel many people feel there is no risk at all).
I mean look at Fisheye's posts. This is a highly intelligent guy and he's talking about "beginning of a disaster movie", the orchestral music is kicking in, zombie apocalypse could have been avoided etc., that's fear talking imo. Imagine what that fear does to someone who is less well informed / maybe can't think about probabilities in an educated way. I think a lot of people out there are just paralyzed with fear clustered to the news & twitter thinking it's 50-50 right now whether or not we end up in a nuclear wasteland and that's just preposterous.
On March 14 2020 22:59 bigredhoss wrote:
4. From a probability standpoint the majority of the mega-bad outcomes from this are in the long tail of the probability distribution. 8-figure worldwide deaths may not be a likely outcome at this point, but such figures are also not a figment of the imagination of over-reactive journalists who are over-extrapolating data as you seem to imply.
Yeah 8-figure worldwide deaths seems EXTREMELY unlikely to me but I would agree with u that it's unfortunately not impossible. I also appreciate that you said "at this point", some optimism
I don't really think journalists are over-imaginative stresschickens, I just think they're trained to write interesting stories / get clicks & views and in the case of that disasters worse is more interesting
What about the 25% stock market drop & super market doomsday runs for toilet paper? Wouldn't u agree with me that these are good indicators of exaggerated fear? In case you feel a 25% drop in valuation is an under-reaction, how much would have been appropriate?
Wouldn't you agree with my basic premise that, since the media has consistently overblown everything in the past, we can assume it's more likely they're overblowing this as well?
On March 15 2020 07:55 LemOn[5thF] wrote:
I'm not sure how productive what you're doing is at all Fisheye by the way, in a crisis like this people should focus on what they can change individually in their communities right now
You can e.g. make home made disinfectant and distribute it
Make sure your social circle does what they can and influence them
Do you really think spending this much time studying global trends and long term projections is a good use of your time?
I think you are far ahead in terms of understanding what is happening, but you seem to be unaware of how most others perceive the situation. Here in Germany people still go to restaurants, shake hands and until yesterday went partying. People in supermarkets are complaining about the hysteria and why there is no toilet paper. Most people are clueless of what is happening in the next months. I think first and foremost our obligation is to understand for our-self the best we can what is going on. Then inform our family and friends about the urgency of precaution / measures / self-isolation and point them to the right resources. Then if you are a hero, go outside and help others, produce your own masks and so forth. Your suggestion to me is like at the end of this process, like you want to be the firefighter at 9/11 running into the burning buildings. Be my guest, I will talk about you in the highest manner but I am not sure that is the right approach for everyone.
Right now in isolation the best you can do is inform others, rational with good information. And go from there.. debating about who does better and who doesn't do enough is probably for a later time. Right now it is more about giving those that are clueless, stupid or ignorant an opportunity to catch up to those that are informed. Best case we look like crazy fools in the end and be laughed at. Best case is you don't have to go to any funerals or tell your friends you are sorry for their loss
I started a discord with Eri, everyone who wants to talk about the situation or educate me or be educated can join. Bigredhoss I would love to have you there just so I can talk to someone who actually lives in China and could maybe make me understand how the next weeks will look like in Europe and so forth.
All of you stay safe and as mentioned a few times, I think logically/ GTO approach is to over-react now and then be laughed at, rather than under-react in a phase where it seems more and more obvious how big this is gonna be.
On March 14 2020 22:59 bigredhoss wrote:
1. It's trivial to see from the R0 and mortality rates that Ebola, SARS, and MERS were never in the same league as CV is in terms of potential damage. It's not the Spanish Flu, but it's closer to that than it is to anything we've had since the Spanish Flu.
Yeah I definitely am not saying that. If Corona was like any of those and we got the current amount of panic though, wouldn't you agree with me that the reaction would be INSANELY overblown?
I think it's totally possible for both of these to be true at the same time
1. Corona is worse than any of the outbreaks you listed
2. People are still overreacting, society is not about to collapse
On March 14 2020 22:59 bigredhoss wrote:
2. If you insist on not doing any research and meta-consuming news headlines, please consider the following:
-The short, headline-catching facts of CV are set up perfectly for people to under-react to it. "Just a bad flu", 0.2% death rate if you're not old, overall death rate also not a shockingly high number at first glance, "X0,000 people die each year from the flu, bro".
You can also name only the impressive stats to overplay the dangers while ignoring the good news. E.g. "this is like ebola but way more contageous". But yeah the just flu bros are simply wrong. I don't think that opinion is very prevalent, it just gets retweeted alot on twitter because it's so outrageous.
On March 14 2020 22:59 bigredhoss wrote:
-People, as you have shown, are maximally numb right now to anything they perceive as sensationalist headlines because of the way the news cycle has evolved over the past few years. It's extraordinarily difficult to try and sell Joe Blow on the idea that he should cancel non-urgent travel plans and self-isolate for a month or more because of something that has a 1 in 500 chance of killing him if he even catches it, and (assuming he's not from China/Italy/Iran/Spain) has killed less than 100 people in his country. And yet that is what the WHO and governments are (finally) advising - or in some cases mandating.
Yeah I can't get any more numb with media headlines. If some truly earth-shattering event really happens I don't think the media can warn me anymore they've just conditioned me to ignore them forever.
The last time there was a tyfoon here in Tokyo I was a 5 min walk away from the worst-struck area and saw the actual reality of the situation and the media coverage both. On TV it looked literally 1000x worse than outside, the things they can do with selecting / editing footage from a huge selection into tiny segments is amazing. The idea of news under-representing a danger / being lax and not vigilant enough just seems so alien to me I can't really explain it.
On March 14 2020 22:59 bigredhoss wrote:
-It is extraordinarily difficult to convince sports leagues, event promoters, etc. that they need to lose out on billions of dollars of revenue for...well, any reason. And yet major games, events, etc. are being canceled.
I agree but doesn't that help my case? I actually don't think canceling big events is overreacting - we can do without sports leagues for a bit - but you know there's some serious fear in the air when you see big corps giving up money lol. Most big gatherings are just rituals that are in our human nature, I don't think we really *need* them
On March 14 2020 22:59 bigredhoss wrote:
3. There is still a very wide range of possible outcomes, depending on what levels governments go to isolate people and how people comply, what extent warm and humid weather has on the spread (I think the data is still unclear about this), and how well countries are able to ramp up their health care capacity so that they aren't overwhelmed when the disease reaches its peak. I suppose there is some irony in that if countries take very aggressive and effective preventative measures, the resulting death toll numbers will look a bit like this was never that big of a deal in the first place. But if governments prepare for for the bottom 20 percentile worst case scenario, we are completely fucked if the bottom 2 percentile scenario happens (to be fair I think you implicitly acknowledged this).
Yeah I agree with you 100%. I also think that after this blows over and things turn out be OK like always, team "not worried" will say "see? told u so" and team "impending zombie apocalypse" will say "all thanks to our timely warning & vigilance", hehe
Btw just to make sure when I am predicting that things will turn out OK and society is not going to collapse (and I think u agree with me on that), I am doing that including all the precautions etc. that people, businesses and governments have taken, as a given. I'm definitely NOT saying "we should have ignored this and done nothing, nothing would have gone wrong". From reading your posts I suspect we feel about the same level of risk, but we are way off on others' perception of risk (with me thinking other people act like the sky is falling, while you feel many people feel there is no risk at all).
I mean look at Fisheye's posts. This is a highly intelligent guy and he's talking about "beginning of a disaster movie", the orchestral music is kicking in, zombie apocalypse could have been avoided etc., that's fear talking imo. Imagine what that fear does to someone who is less well informed / maybe can't think about probabilities in an educated way. I think a lot of people out there are just paralyzed with fear clustered to the news & twitter thinking it's 50-50 right now whether or not we end up in a nuclear wasteland and that's just preposterous.
On March 14 2020 22:59 bigredhoss wrote:
4. From a probability standpoint the majority of the mega-bad outcomes from this are in the long tail of the probability distribution. 8-figure worldwide deaths may not be a likely outcome at this point, but such figures are also not a figment of the imagination of over-reactive journalists who are over-extrapolating data as you seem to imply.
Yeah 8-figure worldwide deaths seems EXTREMELY unlikely to me but I would agree with u that it's unfortunately not impossible. I also appreciate that you said "at this point", some optimism
I don't really think journalists are over-imaginative stresschickens, I just think they're trained to write interesting stories / get clicks & views and in the case of that disasters worse is more interesting
What about the 25% stock market drop & super market doomsday runs for toilet paper? Wouldn't u agree with me that these are good indicators of exaggerated fear? In case you feel a 25% drop in valuation is an under-reaction, how much would have been appropriate?
Wouldn't you agree with my basic premise that, since the media has consistently overblown everything in the past, we can assume it's more likely they're overblowing this as well?
Jelle, I think you are misunderstanding my postings a bit. At this point, fortunately all these discussions are theoretical for the most part but it is important to understand the possible outcomes that are unfortunately on the table. I am mostly in panic-mode and maybe blowing it out of proportion because almost everyone else IS NOT. My friends just post whatsapp meme's of dutch guys riding in huge warehouse full of toilet paper and make jokes about isolation jerking off. As I mentioned previously I am fine being laughed at for this but imagine it goes bad, do you want to sit with your grand children when they ask what you did during the biggest financial and humanitarian crisis in our lifetime and you talk about posting funny meme's and telling your friends to enjoy the sun with this flu hysteria ? What are the downsides to underplaying and overplaying it? Unfortunately the smart people I talk to are all very pessimistic when it comes to the numbers. Of course this is NOT zombie time nor will we lose a huge chunk of the world population in my opinion. But even the more optimistic smart informed people told me that they basically see 1 Mio. deaths as a best case scenario. Those are all individual thinkers that scream BS on almost all the media shenanigans but when I individually talked to them about their assessment NONE of them think it can be much better than that case. That is SCARY as fuck to me and when you do some basic math it is hard to derive at a number lower anyways. I am sure the bigredhoss can do a much better job at this than I can but the basic calculation would be something like this (and please elaborate / fix my errors):
We have 7.7 Billion people, lets assume like during the Spanish flu 27% will get infected (in Germany experts assume 60-70 for Germany, in Norway they assume 40-70% for Norway). Mortality rate in Italy is 6.8, in South Korea it seems to be under 1%, globally the number is between 2-3.4% as of current predictions. We don't know about re-infections (Japan has a guy now that got reinfected within 1 month), we don't know about mutations and we don't know about Fibrosis /Pneumonia like issues after being healed (some ppl lost 30-40% of lung capacity after severe issues).
7.7 Billion * 0.27 * 0.01 = ~ 20.8 Mio. deaths.
Now if we go with a simulation based on Italian numbers we would all be fucked. If we go to a spread of the virus not around 1.4-3.9x but higher (some suggest up to 6x) then we are fucked big time. But South Korea for example and even China give hope that this is completely blown out of proportion and that we could get to a fatality rate of below 1% with the right measures. Good testing / masks / hygiene / (a certain level of government compliance) / self-isolation and other measures could push the important numbers like growth rate and fatality towards a much better number. In those scenarios I can see a very good case where we probably only infect a much smaller % of the population, find a cure/something that helps quickly / avoid over hospitalization and maybe will only talk about something like 500k deaths worldwide over a 1-2 year period. In that case it might be less dramatic than the seasonal flu globally and indeed it was all just crazy overreaction.
Now I can see why this seems outrageous and overblown and drama etc. but if you really try to calculate the numbers you might find a hard time to get the number of deaths to below my best case, and that should be alarming to you. Outside of all the media news and that is why the smart people in the room that I listen to seem so worried, and that is maybe why you should be, too.
Just for the Flu-type corner that might be lurking. Germany had 2017/18 the worst case of the flu in a long time, 25k people died and 9 mio were infected (mortality rate around 0.25%). It is tragic but can happen. Now 9 Mio represents only ~11-12% of the population. All the experts expect on a low end 40 on a higher end 70% of the population to get infected. So far best case is a mortality rate of around 0.7 - 1%. No matter how you move the numbers around, it will be hard to have less than 10x of what the flu did in Germany. And that was during a time of no financial crisis, no panic, no racism etc. that could come out of this as well.
I want smarter people than me to point out where I am so misguided and wrong about this, trust me I don't want to be right here, I want to be laughed off the forums but please use rational arguments and not just oh you are just in panic-mode relax, dude. Now in my perception with all the global measures being taken so quickly and a lot of questions about the mutation and death rate of this virus, I have to assume that the media is actually UNDERPLAYING some parts of this (of course others are overblown but just in a general context), you can insert whatever conspiracy why that might be, my best guess is to avoid a mass panic too quickly. That is why schools close for 2 weeks at first, and not 3 months. They take full measures but at a slower need to know basis, where slowly it goes from 1000 people gatherings to stay home. From work at home to safety net for global financial crisis and so forth. If you are intellectually slow I don't mind that argument, but if you are just ignorant I want you to wake up. NOW
Last edit: 15/03/2020 13:02
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LemOn[5thF] Czech Republic. Mar 15 2020 14:44. Posts 15163
You know what
maybe we need two threads
one for unpractical walls of text like this and theorycrafting
and one for practical advice and actions you should take
wanted to ask a question about that but this is getting way too cluttered
thank you, that is what I keep telling Baalim for a day now, after he closed my thread. This is way bigger than just one thread about what we think. I actually think there should be 3
1# What to do, just good information about reality
2# Can be for conspiracies, off topic, memes pictures blabla
3# serious discussions about what we are facing, what this could all mean, what is happening in countries, etc.
In the end hopefully none of it is warranted but I don't see the upside of not taking this serious
Thanks for writing out some numbers that's pretty cool
On March 15 2020 11:58 FiSheYe wrote:
7.7 Billion * 0.27 * 0.01 = ~ 20.8 Mio. deaths.
Why would we assume 27% of the world gets infected? Because of the Spanish flu in 1918? That's like data from a different planet.
According to google; "In 1915 the transcontinental telephone line began operating. "
On the other hand, we have smartphones
Imagine this; I'm talking to some random dudes on the internet and you guys have already impacted me, I will probably go out even less in the coming weeks and switch some of my boxing at the gym with lifting weights at home. In 1918 my hermit lifestyle would have been completely unthinkable.
If you want to cut me some slack and make the numbers more optimistic, we can add some variables
- Probability of finding a vaccine before the virus runs its course
- Probability of other innovations that slow down the virus or
- Potential massive slowdown in infection rate from all the adjustments we're making as a society
On March 15 2020 11:58 FiSheYe wrote:
Now if we go with a simulation based on Italian numbers we would all be fucked. If we go to a spread of the virus not around 1.4-3.9x but higher (some suggest up to 6x) then we are fucked big time.
Why would we go with only Italian numbers? If you grab some dataset and then arbitrarily filter out all but the worst cases, and then make your predictions based off that, you will always end up with an apocalyptic disaster. I just don't see any reason to be that pessimistic.
On March 15 2020 11:58 FiSheYe wrote:
But South Korea for example and even China give hope that this is completely blown out of proportion and that we could get to a fatality rate of below 1% with the right measures. Good testing / masks / hygiene / (a certain level of government compliance) / self-isolation and other measures could push the important numbers like growth rate and fatality towards a much better number. In those scenarios I can see a very good case where we probably only infect a much smaller % of the population, find a cure/something that helps quickly / avoid over hospitalization and maybe will only talk about something like 500k deaths worldwide over a 1-2 year period. In that case it might be less dramatic than the seasonal flu globally and indeed it was all just crazy overreaction.
Yeah. South Korea was operating without the kind of information & data we have, and they still got it to 1%. So it seems only natural that we should outperform them, maybe even really badly. Unless maybe they had some massive advantage from not being obese / the food they eat or something, but I don't think something like that would matter that much
btw, since you are researching a lot, what do you think about Japan? I never see it discussed anywhere. We have so much contact with China so it seems like we should have been hit early. We have very little testing (still beating USA!) and so of course few cases found but also few deaths. Japanese people seem to have barely adjusted their lifestyle at all (they are jaded because they've had so many disasters recently), so I think they should be at elevated risk compared to Europe / USA. On top of that, they live in ultra-densely populated scenarios which should elevate risk even more. But so far nothing seems to be happening. The unspectacular numbers seem to vibe with my suspicion that data indicating safety just gets largely ignored. If we suddenly experience an upswing I'm sure Japan graphs will be all over twitter.
On March 15 2020 13:44 LemOn[5thF] wrote:
You know what
maybe we need two threads
one for unpractical walls of text like this and theorycrafting
and one for practical advice and actions you should take
wanted to ask a question about that but this is getting way too cluttered
ah sorry bro T_T
GroT
1
LemOn[5thF] Czech Republic. Mar 15 2020 15:27. Posts 15163
On March 15 2020 14:00 FiSheYe wrote:
thank you, that is what I keep telling Baalim for a day now, after he closed my thread. This is way bigger than just one thread about what we think. I actually think there should be 3
1# What to do, just good information about reality
2# Can be for conspiracies, off topic, memes pictures blabla
3# serious discussions about what we are facing, what this could all mean, what is happening in countries, etc.
In the end hopefully none of it is warranted but I don't see the upside of not taking this serious
your thread belongs in this one imo with theorycrafting
Nobody here knows what they are talking about anyways and get it from the media so 2+3 is the same thing
I'll start a practical thread
and ask my question there
On March 15 2020 14:10 Jelle wrote:
Thanks for writing out some numbers that's pretty cool
Why would we assume 27% of the world gets infected? Because of the Spanish flu in 1918? That's like data from a different planet.
Our government expects 60-70%, I just wanted to make it less extreme with 27%, based on something we already experiences with probably a lower spread factor
Imagine this; I'm talking to some random dudes on the internet and you guys have already impacted me, I will probably go out even less in the coming weeks and switch some of my boxing at the gym with lifting weights at home. In 1918 my hermit lifestyle would have been completely unthinkable.
That is why I am talking to you, so you are more aware. Either we both laugh about how stupid I am in a few weeks, or you will write me thank you notes. Lets hope for the former.
If you want to cut me some slack and make the numbers more optimistic, we can add some variables
- Probability of finding a vaccine before the virus runs its course
- Probability of other innovations that slow down the virus or
- Potential massive slowdown in infection rate from all the adjustments we're making as a society
-There is no vaccine for the next 18-24 months and even if so the most important part is the next weeks and first big wave and to avoid growth factors by doing the right thing (flattening the curve, just google if you don't understand that yet)
-I hope for innovation, too but lets focus on what we can do ourself at the moment
-Potential of slowdown is what I am aiming for here as well, lets hope there are additional things we can do soonish
Why would we go with only Italian numbers? If you grab some dataset and then arbitrarily filter out all but the worst cases, and then make your predictions based off that, you will always end up with an apocalyptic disaster. I just don't see any reason to be that pessimistic.
I calculate with 1%, which is lower than what the experts assume the death numbers to be (2- 3.4% without severe mutation). So I am calculating with a scenario where we are at a 3x lower mortality rate as is suggested by experts
Yeah. South Korea was operating without the kind of information & data we have, and they still got it to 1%. So it seems only natural that we should outperform them, maybe even really badly. Unless maybe they had some massive advantage from not being obese / the food they eat or something, but I don't think something like that would matter that much
btw, since you are researching a lot, what do you think about Japan? I never see it discussed anywhere. We have so much contact with China so it seems like we should have been hit early. We have very little testing (still beating USA!) and so of course few cases found but also few deaths. Japanese people seem to have barely adjusted their lifestyle at all (they are jaded because they've had so many disasters recently), so I think they should be at elevated risk compared to Europe / USA. On top of that, they live in ultra-densely populated scenarios which should elevate risk even more. But so far nothing seems to be happening. The unspectacular numbers seem to vibe with my suspicion that data indicating safety just gets largely ignored. If we suddenly experience an upswing I'm sure Japan graphs will be all over twitter.
I pray for Japan (I am an atheist). I hope that Japan just does what they do best, care about others, wear masks, stay hope, obey authority in this case, do better than Europe. Keep in mind that Korea was well prepared compared to Italy due to many factors mentioned by me and others. But it is my hope that there are lower % of mortality possible than Korea which would save millions of lives. Too early to tell tho
Here's the article for flattening the curve in case anyone else is interested, cool simulations too. Yeah, I heard those arguments before and I agree with them, I'm just way more optimistic for the future I guess.
Anyway I think we understand each others' pov really well so I'm gonna call it a day. Thanks for a manner discussion, I really appreciate it because I wanted to hear somebody out who doesn't think it's gonna be all peaches & cream ~<3
No worries, we are in this together. I hope I am all wrong and you never come back to this thread. Until then I will try and collect data / opinions / theories so we can be prepared in case our bad case scenarios become true. Don't think there is anything much more +EV I can do right now with my life
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hiems United States. Mar 15 2020 16:36. Posts 2979
I beat Loco!!! [img]https://i.imgur.com/wkwWj2d.png[/img]
LemOn[5thF] Czech Republic. Mar 15 2020 19:51. Posts 15163
Btw I see facebook posts from "brave" people saying people should wear face masks
with photos of actual proper face mask and commenting how people look weird at them when they have it
These people mean well but they are fucking up big time in countries with facemask and respirator shortages
Pharmacists don't have them, police don't have them and 0 shopkeepers have them because there are huge shortages
And these virtue signalling "selfless" geniuses are making it worse by telling people to start buying them...
Shut the fuck up mate, gift the good ones (hospitals are asking for them to be gifted) ...Just shows how tricky the situation is.
There are wards asking people to sow masks for them and gift them.
Not sure what's going to happen really, it doesn't help much to protect you but no grocery sales staff or pharmacist having them is just fucked up
On March 15 2020 18:51 LemOn[5thF] wrote:
Btw I see facebook posts from "brave" people saying people should wear face masks
with photos of actual proper face mask and commenting how people look weird at them when they have it
These people mean well but they are fucking up big time in countries with facemask and respirator shortages
Pharmacists don't have them, police don't have them and 0 shopkeepers have them because there are huge shortages
And these virtue signalling "selfless" geniuses are making it worse by telling people to start buying them...
Shut the fuck up mate, gift the good ones (hospitals are asking for them to be gifted) ...Just shows how tricky the situation is.
There are wards asking people to sow masks for them and gift them.
Not sure what's going to happen really, it doesn't help much to protect you but no grocery sales staff or pharmacist having them is just fucked up
It's kind of hard to educate people like that to think more far than their noses sadly
@Jelle you're underestimating this entire thing so much, society will not collapse is just as good of a statement as its opposite. Exponential spreading of pneumonia is unbearable by society and we're proving to be unable to handle it. The entire situation is quite terrifying and the aftermath could potentially be even worse depending on how fast we stop the growth
It also doesn't matter how media perceives and shoves it into people's throat and the actual reality, since countries are in shutdown mode.
Last edit: 15/03/2020 22:41
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hiems United States. Mar 15 2020 22:45. Posts 2979
This whole paranoia thing is annoying. Every time you cough or sneeze cause some dust got in your nose or feel a bit weird at all you start thinking you have it.
I beat Loco!!! [img]https://i.imgur.com/wkwWj2d.png[/img]
Annoying Paranoia is the least of your concerns in a few days time. And people will not look weirdly at you when you cough, they will be terrified to death and pray they don't have guns to defend them-self. National Lockdown incoming
blackjacki2 United States. Mar 15 2020 23:44. Posts 2581
I think it's amazing the level of production the world was able to achieve during WWII to output machines to kill each other yet we can't keep up with the demand for surgical masks.
Can someone explain to me based on what does WHO announce the death rate to be around 2-4%?
Active cases are around 7% critical condition
Closed cases have 8% death rate
Even if somehow only 1% of that 7 % end up dying, the total will still be over 4%. That's from a statistical excerpt of 170,000 people in developed countries.
Last edit: 16/03/2020 00:08
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Liquid`Drone Norway. Mar 16 2020 00:25. Posts 3093
The reported cases isn't even close to matching the real number of infected, because for young people many only feel very mild symptoms. South Korea is the country where they have done the most extensive testing, and from their 8,162 cases only 75 have died. (Even if all the other 59 that are in critical condition end up dying, you'd still only be at 1.6% or something. )
Numbers from SK actually indicate that as long as health care system isn't overwhelmed, real mortality rate might well be below 1%, but this, health care systems not being overwhelmed, is a big 'if', and will vary greatly from country to country. Norway atm has 1254 cases (I'd assume the real number is way higher, they don't test people with mild symptoms anymore), but only 3 deaths (and 27 in critical condition where many of those would die in an overburdened situation). Sweden, Denmark, similar extremely low numbers of dead. However a country like Italy where the infrastructure is much worse (and where they got less time to prepare because they were the first western country hit badly), the percentage is like 7.5% - but again, they've stopped testing people with mild symptoms, so the real number of infected is way higher than the 24k reported.
In short, mortality numbers are really uncertain at the moment. But we can know a couple things - number of infected is vastly underreported, pretty much everywhere, number of dead is going to increase by a large amount over the next weeks as many western countries have followed a similar trajectory to Italy, just ~2 weeks behind, and their death count has been rising really fast lately (and then increase further over the next months), and the mortality rate greatly depends on the health care provided. If there are respirators for all the people in critical condition, most of those people survive. If there are not, most of them die. How good of a shape a population is in probably matters, too - obesity, diabetes, smoking habits are all likely to exacerbate how harmful it is.
lol POKER
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LemOn[5thF] Czech Republic. Mar 16 2020 00:41. Posts 15163
Yeah this is all about the healthcare systems being crippled moreso than standard mortality rates
People die, no big deal if it's 1% -3%
People dying totally unnecessarily and rest of healthcare not working almost at all is a disaster that fuck entire countries.
Btw we have official quarantine
Home work shop
Everything else police will try to stop you
Well they unofficially allowed walks as long as you are 2 metres from others
More countries will follow with quarantine and complete shutdown. I suspect we aren't being told the full truth. I hope Italy and South Korea's HUGE discrepancy is based on purely the factors we discussed. I think there are possibilities it has another reason and that is why all governments are moving so fast, but that belongs more into conspiracy theory.
For now: As posted before, I started a discord channel: https://discord.gg/MJJg3k
If you are good with that stuff ( I am old, I come from the IRC / ICQ days) feel free to become admin. My goal is to put information together for everyone who is impacted. As with this thread, I hope it is just a waste of time. To everyone who feels we are in this together, please help.
Last edit: 16/03/2020 01:56
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Santafairy Korea (South). Mar 16 2020 12:35. Posts 2225
Hey spit it's 8% because dying closes a case faster than full recovery and testing negative
And new cases are not opening at a linear rate because the spread is in the phase of accelerating
It seems to be not very profitable in the long run to play those kind of hands. - Gus Hansen
On March 15 2020 21:40 Spitfiree wrote:
@Jelle you're underestimating this entire thing so much, society will not collapse is just as good of a statement as its opposite. Exponential spreading of pneumonia is unbearable by society and we're proving to be unable to handle it. The entire situation is quite terrifying and the aftermath could potentially be even worse depending on how fast we stop the growth
It also doesn't matter how media perceives and shoves it into people's throat and the actual reality, since countries are in shutdown mode.
I'm not I understand exactly what you mean / where you disagree. Are you saying that my prediction of society not collapsing is bad, or that it's too obvious / not worth mentioning?
I really don't think I'm saying anything outlandish - i agree that this is a disaster and countermeasures are necessary and good. I just expect that, 2 years from now, the scale of the disaster to be much smaller than some of these "best case" prediction model outcomes.
I gave simple reasons for why I feel that way, and I haven't heard anyone dispute them. Meanwhile as I type this Bill Perkins is discussing "Why don't I just move into toilet paper? People always need to wipe their ass" as a potential financial strategy on joeyingram's podcast. Maybe I am just hearing only the most extreme opinions because that's what gets clicks / views but yeah it really does feel like people expect mad max 2 scenarios soon without exaggeration.
Yeah, I believe your opinion on that is quite untrue. It's hard to point anything 'outlandish' since your previous comment is ' its better to panic than take it lightly' so you're trying to find the middle ground I suppose, that's fair.
The thing is, this event is already unprecedented in our modern history post-antibiotics. People give examples of the spanish flu yet they forget that it still managed to kill millions, while mass transport was only a sci-fi belief for decades to come. We're not prepared, I'm actually glad that politicians started panicking, but its already too late now. We're most likely going to be stuck at least for a few months just to slow it down and then if we're lucky there won't be a second wave in the autumn/winter. There's not going to be a vaccine any time soon. Everything points out to this virus going to go through its entire growth cycle
So to make the points:
-almost every public business will be closed for months
-businesses that have them as clients will also be hurt directly out of that
-we'll be stuck in our homes
This is pretty much a dystopian situation right now, im not sure what else you'd consider as 'society collapsing' but anything worse than that is basically our extinction
What we're lucky about is that this isnt some superbug immune to antibiotics
On March 16 2020 20:59 Spitfiree wrote:
Yeah, I believe your opinion on that is quite untrue. It's hard to point anything 'outlandish' since your previous comment is ' its better to panic than take it lightly' so you're trying to find the middle ground I suppose, that's fair.
The thing is, this event is already unprecedented in our modern history post-antibiotics. People give examples of the spanish flu yet they forget that it still managed to kill millions, while mass transport was only a sci-fi belief for decades to come. We're not prepared, I'm actually glad that politicians started panicking, but its already too late now. We're most likely going to be stuck at least for a few months just to slow it down and then if we're lucky there won't be a second wave in the autumn/winter. There's not going to be a vaccine any time soon. Everything points out to this virus going to go through its entire growth cycle
So to make the points:
-almost every public business will be closed for months
-businesses that have them as clients will also be hurt directly out of that
-we'll be stuck in our homes
This is pretty much a dystopian situation right now, im not sure what else you'd consider as 'society collapsing' but anything worse than that is basically our extinction
What we're lucky about is that this isnt some superbug immune to antibiotics
Have to agree and after 1 week of exhausting writing and talking and phoning people and trying to finding plausible arguments that counter the data I found.... I am basically accepting that I try my best, will only convince a small population and brace for impact. In 2 weeks the same people will come back to me for advise and I will forgive and help, I hope they only show my text to their friends and laugh because I am proven wrong. The worst part is the intellectual fatigue with people of high IQ, I have a hard time forgiving them. I talked today with my aunt who is a retired doctor. She had 2 burn outs because she couldn't leave people in need and was always taking everything to heart. Today I talked to her about the numbers, the crisis ahead and all that stuff. She agreed with everything but told me to stay cool and not panic and that we cannot do much anyways. Yet doesn't go to the press, doesn't talk with virus experts, doesn't call people up. I talked to her about exponential growth and how she is not equipped to understand it and that it will be much worse and that she can save lives right now by not only isolating but also convincing others. She is contemplating to come back out of retirement to help with the worst cases of the epidemic when she already has health conditions and is in the highest mortality rate. The manual labor to save people in the hospital is so much less productive in a few weeks than telling 1-2 people that have influence to understand the data and act accordingly. It is sickening how stupid everyone is and the cost to benefit ratio is so outlandish, worst case you will be made fun of. I really feel like I am going crazy with this, it is so saddening to see. The worst part everyone with a decent brain who looked at the data agrees with me, they are just in different modes of acceptance instead of calling people up. I don't understand
When I say societal collapse I mean mad max 2 scenarios, people stop believing in the stories that glue our society together, Bill Perkins becomes a local chief because he controls the toilet roll supply, ridiculous (to me) scenarios like that. Maybe sounds too ridiculous to even discuss but I think a lot of people really believe this is legit in the cards right now, because the situation is never before seen as u said and that makes people extremely fearful and come up with some wild predictions. Didn't Fisheye mention something about police being unwilling to go outside because the threat is too high or did I dream that?
What do you mean exactly by every public company? Retail storefronts, airlines, stuff like that? In every country? When will they all close, do you believe? If you put some falsifiable predictions with milestones for the near future I think you will be relieved when they don't hit and feel better.
Yeah in many countries you'll be stuck in your homes for a while I don't think that's dystopian
To me the scenario that Fisheye posted with the human drama of huge swathes of the global population dying, for example, is already dramatically worse than this one, yet nowhere near extinction. I also think that scenario is not going to happen, I think basically every health factor will go better than imagined. Less infections, way lower death rate, faster vaccine development.
On March 16 2020 23:53 Jelle wrote:
When I say societal collapse I mean mad max 2 scenarios, people stop believing in the stories that glue our society together, Bill Perkins becomes a local chief because he controls the toilet roll supply, ridiculous (to me) scenarios like that. Maybe sounds too ridiculous to even discuss but I think a lot of people really believe this is legit in the cards right now, because the situation is never before seen as u said and that makes people extremely fearful and come up with some wild predictions. Didn't Fisheye mention something about police being unwilling to go outside because the threat is too high or did I dream that?
What do you mean exactly by every public company? Retail storefronts, airlines, stuff like that? In every country? When will they all close, do you believe? If you put some falsifiable predictions with milestones for the near future I think you will be relieved when they don't hit and feel better.
Yeah in many countries you'll be stuck in your homes for a while I don't think that's dystopian
To me the scenario that Fisheye posted with the human drama of huge swathes of the global population dying, for example, is already dramatically worse than this one, yet nowhere near extinction. I also think that scenario is not going to happen, I think basically every health factor will go better than imagined. Less infections, way lower death rate, faster vaccine development.
So far, it is going worse than the predictions I had. The things I told my family a week ago that would happen till the end of the month already happened. And the almost 8% mortality rate in Italy is so much higher than I anticipated and Germany is still not prepared. I don't think it is important what happens in 3months, it is only important to alert as many people right now, not to leave the house unless really important emergency (basically food, and that is it, only go when you absolutely must). Everything else is crazy with the information you can google or watch unfold on reddits corona news stream or all the date you find on the aggregation sites. Most people wouldn't go into the water in Australia if they hear there are a few sharks. Actually you probably will be forced to stay out of the water by authorities due to the impending danger. If near your house/neighborhood someone crazy runs around with a knife, people will call you up and tell you to stay home due to the huge risks you take if you and 100000 others would leave the house right now. If someone has Aids you would never have Sex with that person because you have a 1-5% chance of getting it and maybe you will not be cured or you die 20 years from now due to complications with your immune system. Yet when you have all the important world experts tell you there is a killer virus in the world, in your city, in your neighborhood that is infecting people at a rate that is mind boggling and killing people and if you are healthy, there is a probability of maybe 1 (or higher)% that you will die (currently 3,8% worldwide of registered cases) in addition to severe complications with Fibrosis/Pneumatic-esque lung issues (30-40% reduction in lung capacity) IF you heal up and there are reports in Italy of 16 year old, 30 year old dying and the doctors talk about the complete uncertainty with the stats for young people.... Then people call it the flu, talk about wanting to go to the gym. Probably try to stack up on weed last minute or just are fed up with being so restricted in their homes and want to live a little and go outside. Just a bit, you know, won't hurt.
Why does that seem sane to you? I mean I tried my best, you are always free to come back but at this point I will focus on the ones that actually look at the data, read the reports, see the danger. See their responsibility to warn others, to argue with them about the data, to find ways how we can become Korea, not Italy, US, Germany.... I just don't have energy for that right now. There are plenty who do get it, and who will help and save lives. Maybe you will reconsider your position, as I think it just doesn't work from a rational point of view. What is your ultimate cost if you take it serious and help others to realize it them-self, by actually working with the data that health experts and real cases provide? Compared that to taking it not serious and taking a "we will see, I don't think it is that bad" approach? I don't think you can argue for the risk-reward here. Plus the bad consciousness in case you do care about your fellow humans and you have been informed when there was time to act and be the hero you could have been (without medals and unnoticed by society obviously, we won't even get a cookie).
On March 16 2020 20:59 Spitfiree wrote:
Yeah, I believe your opinion on that is quite untrue. It's hard to point anything 'outlandish' since your previous comment is ' its better to panic than take it lightly' so you're trying to find the middle ground I suppose, that's fair.
The thing is, this event is already unprecedented in our modern history post-antibiotics. People give examples of the spanish flu yet they forget that it still managed to kill millions, while mass transport was only a sci-fi belief for decades to come. We're not prepared, I'm actually glad that politicians started panicking, but its already too late now. We're most likely going to be stuck at least for a few months just to slow it down and then if we're lucky there won't be a second wave in the autumn/winter. There's not going to be a vaccine any time soon. Everything points out to this virus going to go through its entire growth cycle
So to make the points:
-almost every public business will be closed for months
-businesses that have them as clients will also be hurt directly out of that
-we'll be stuck in our homes
This is pretty much a dystopian situation right now, im not sure what else you'd consider as 'society collapsing' but anything worse than that is basically our extinction
What we're lucky about is that this isnt some superbug immune to antibiotics
Have to agree and after 1 week of exhausting writing and talking and phoning people and trying to finding plausible arguments that counter the data I found.... I am basically accepting that I try my best, will only convince a small population and brace for impact. In 2 weeks the same people will come back to me for advise and I will forgive and help, I hope they only show my text to their friends and laugh because I am proven wrong. The worst part is the intellectual fatigue with people of high IQ, I have a hard time forgiving them. I talked today with my aunt who is a retired doctor. She had 2 burn outs because she couldn't leave people in need and was always taking everything to heart. Today I talked to her about the numbers, the crisis ahead and all that stuff. She agreed with everything but told me to stay cool and not panic and that we cannot do much anyways. Yet doesn't go to the press, doesn't talk with virus experts, doesn't call people up. I talked to her about exponential growth and how she is not equipped to understand it and that it will be much worse and that she can save lives right now by not only isolating but also convincing others. She is contemplating to come back out of retirement to help with the worst cases of the epidemic when she already has health conditions and is in the highest mortality rate. The manual labor to save people in the hospital is so much less productive in a few weeks than telling 1-2 people that have influence to understand the data and act accordingly. It is sickening how stupid everyone is and the cost to benefit ratio is so outlandish, worst case you will be made fun of. I really feel like I am going crazy with this, it is so saddening to see. The worst part everyone with a decent brain who looked at the data agrees with me, they are just in different modes of acceptance instead of calling people up. I don't understand
On the brighter side of things, you will have learned quite a bit about the world you live in and the people with whom you share this earth, and the meaninglessness of things like IQ, which isn't representative of general intelligence or "wisdom".
The reason we are in this situation, fundamentally, is because people have a blind faith in authorities, and have been robbed of their autonomy, and kept in the dark about the way power operates in this world. Whether it's because they believe in some God or some political party, or their parents or community leaders; people have never been equipped to think for themselves. The societies of mass consumption that we exist in can only survive because of this fact.
The positives of something like this might be to reawaken the need for mutual aid and a general disillusionment with representationalism, but I wouldn't hold my breath. This is just the beginning of a series of crises that have been in the cards for a long time and which a profit-oriented world could not be prepared to handle properly, and it pales in comparison with the impacts that climate change will have. The way you feel right now is the way millions of ecologically-conscious people have been feeling for years: that we are walking towards a cliff as a species and most people don't seem to notice or be able to care, and it's depressing and anxiety-inducing to have to interact with such people and also depressing and anxiety-inducing to resign yourself to the fact that nothing is likely going to change before it's too late.
fuck I should just sell some of my Pokemon cards, if no one stakes that is what I will have to do - lostaccount
Maybe video is easier to understand, the mortality rate is incorrect and they aren't talking about the "cured" ones that have life long problems nor all the young new cases that are healthy and still died BUT it is better than "it is the flu" videos:
On the brighter side of things, you will have learned quite a bit about the world you live in and the people with whom you share this earth, and the meaninglessness of things like IQ, which isn't representative of general intelligence or "wisdom".
The reason we are in this situation, fundamentally, is because people have a blind faith in authorities, and have been robbed of their autonomy, and kept in the dark about the way power operates in this world. Whether it's because they believe in some God or some political party, or their parents or community leaders; people have never been equipped to think for themselves. The societies of mass consumption that we exist in can only survive because of this fact.
The positives of something like this might be to reawaken the need for mutual aid and a general disillusionment with representationalism, but I wouldn't hold my breath. This is just the beginning of a series of crises that have been in the cards for a long time and which a profit-oriented world could not be prepared to handle properly, and it pales in comparison with the impacts that climate change will have. The way you feel right now is the way millions of ecologically-conscious people have been feeling for years: that we are walking towards a cliff as a species and most people don't seem to notice or be able to care, and it's depressing and anxiety-inducing to have to interact with such people and also depressing and anxiety-inducing to resign yourself to the fact that nothing is likely going to change before it's too late.
Appreciated your way of "positivity" but to me global warming can be here in 5 or 50 or 100 years and I believe with the speed of development in AI and technology we still have chances to get it done. With this virus, people died yesterday in my country. People die today and tomorrow and it will increase. Nobody knows how truly devastating this can become when panics and riots are so hard to calculate on top of the actual mortality rates and what it does to us as a society. You know while I still can, I try to help. In a few weeks when everyone knows it, we can talk about who did it to us and what is all the good out of it. I just feel so much anger and frustration because people like you can help right now (this is not against you, just in general high IQ cynical types that see it from the window and let it play out). This is a free country and a free world, you can do whatever you want, I have honestly no bad feelings towards you. You are actually contributing by increasing awareness but you know, if you care so much for non global warming, please believe more in humanity. We can still do great things, but letting people die because they are too ignorant to inform them self or too stupid to calculate WHO stats and add population * infection rate * mortality rate... I think with great power (high IQ or at least able to read a Data sheet) comes great/certain responsibility. I tried to talk to soooo many people and sooo few understand what is happening with the numbers. And it is all there, I send it to them. MY BEST FRIEND, who I love, he is into 5g, wifi, EMF, some vaccine theories etc. it took me like 5 long talks, hours of reports, data, sms, voice memos calls and so forth to convince him this is not a flu. He isn't stupid, he is just sometimes out there with his ideas. He got it finally, he started talking to others, he makes a change now. It is hard and tedious, but we can all contribute rather than watch the world burn then complain that people don't care enough. You know if its us or some rats/cows/lions, I take us. Team humanity first. I think the animals are their animal type first, too if they had our power (we would be gone by now). We can figure global warming after this pandemic, lets stay positive, positive. Not like less humans, less pollution ideas positive.
Climate change related issues are not something awaiting in the future, they are already here and have been so for a while. Look up the number of people who die or have been hospitalized due to heatstroke every year just as a single example. People have been dying in larger numbers with every year that passes from a number of climatic conditions and issues related to environmental degradation. Droughts and water shortages are another massive issue, not to mention the increasing frequency of "natural" catastrophes leading to deaths and dislocations and enormous damage to infrastructure. Nothing is being done to address this at the level where it matters most: the political level.
And these problems are not something that technology can solve, they are complex organizational, political and ideological problems.Those same problems are what will generate antibiotic resistant superbugs and free ancient viruses and bacteria frozen in permafrost. Nothing is being done to prevent this because "there is no money in it". Not just affecting people of course, but a great number of animals have perished and will continue to perish, which affects the biodiversity that we rely upon for our systems to function. Just the last Australian bushfires killed well over a billion animals. We are less equipped to deal with this problem than coronavirus, and it is one that truly threatens our species as a whole. The coronavirus is just more easily visible and it is more of an immediate threat.
The ideas from the tech nerds surrounding the possibilities of AI and the singularity or whatever are myopic; they have fundamentally the same blind faith attitude as the ones who claim that coronavirus isn't a big deal. These people exist in their own fantasy world and echo chambers and have overspecialized in one area and have absolutely no ability to see the big picture as a result.
Behavioral economist Peter Atwater said the following: “In a crisis, we immediately eliminate anything that is in any way psychologically distant from us because that requires too much thinking. The priorities become all around ‘me-here-now.’ How does it affect me? Is it immediate? Is it geographically proximate? Is it simple? Can I understand it?”
The issue with climate change is that by the time everyone is in crisis mode it will be far too late for our species, there are feedback loops that will become engaged at some point and the planet's warming will not be able to stop. That is the scariest thing to contemplate and come to terms with. We are basically cognitively wired to just keep pushing it in the back of our consciousness and even when we aren't we default to hoping for a technological miracle that currently doesn't exist and couldn't exist on a scale that would make a difference (despite what sensationalistic feel-good headlines might say).
I'm sorry if you took what I was saying as a cynical act; I didn't mean it that way. I was just commiserating, as well as reminding you that if you want to fight for "team humanity" the coronavirus is the smaller battle, even if it's the most pressing right now. You're right of course that people ought to focus on the most immediate threat to them during a pandemic. My brother seems to have already contracted the virus. We will have the results within the next couple days. There aren't a lot of people that I can debate this with. My family members are practicing social distancing, and my friends too, as much as possible (some still have to commute to work).
I personally am struggling because I have a trip planned to go see my girlfriend in Japan in 3 weeks, and I really don't want to cancel it. I'd rather self-isolate with her for the next coming months once I get there than stay here, but I know that the risk is likely not to be trivial. Most likely the decision will be made for me in the coming week or two. Canada's recently announced they were closing our border to non-residents and Japan might do the same soon.
fuck I should just sell some of my Pokemon cards, if no one stakes that is what I will have to do - lostaccount
Hey Loco, I don't exactly see eye to eye with you on the topic of climate change but you clearly spend a lot of time on it and you clearly care a lot for where we stand right now and how we can get into a phase where we can recoup or rebound before it is all too late. I currently really have like no energy nor focus on climate change and I think on the upside, this pandemic has great effects on nature, so maybe we get a few weeks/months off with this issue and can all focus on the pandemic. However I appreciate your text and thoughts I just don't want to argue with you about it or go deeper because it feels too "off-topic" on what I want to archive right now. (not in general, like you pointed out, just because my own family could get infected next days because they still go to work and all that stuff is a lot more personal right now to me). I think we do see pretty much eye to eye with the pandemic tho and I feel very sorry if your brother might see complications. I do think if you take huge precautions you might be able to find ways of travelling where your risk of infection isn't that high or where you can guarantee that in case you or your girlfriend gets very sick, you get the necessary treatment that you would need to survive. As it stands otherwise it seems like a terrible risk to take right now and I would recommend you to wait. The longer we have to understand what we are dealing with, the better the chances you get the right treatment and /some form of new cure/something that lowers mortality. Thank you for doing the isolation thing and your family as well thus far, for all we know everyone who does it saves a lot of people and that is the most pressing issue right now.
As mentioned prior, if you found good counter arguments to what I discussed here or on discord, feel free to share & debate me on it or if you can aid with data/good videos/good articles I am always happy to learn more about it. https://discord.gg/DdstkPe
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Stroggoz New Zealand. Mar 17 2020 06:28. Posts 5296
There arn't any simple tech solutions to climate change yet and it's been 50 years since people started talking about this seriously. There are the green tech ones. What did the western societies do about solar/wind, and agriculture? They got overtaken by a country that is still half peasants, how embarassing. They put $250 billion in agricultural subsidies to a system that harms the environment. There have been tech developments in the fossil fuel sector that allowed companies to extract fossil fuels more than they previously could. Why do people think there will be a tech solution to climate change and no one talks about the tech solutions to extracting more fossil fuels, when that's where most of the research money went?
Also what is AI even being used for? Spying on people, to advertise. That's where all tech companies are putting the vast majority of their money into, they simply want to put all their money into capturing to supply routes to behavioral futures.
Ya, interestingly the virus could have given us a few more months to deal with the climate crisis. But idk, saudi arabia decided to go full idiot mode in a price war and start exporting several more millions of barrels of oil per day.
well, viruses and climate change go together. It's well known that climate change will increase the spread of disease in the world, and who knows the number of pathogens that are trapped in artic ice shelfs. Anthrax is one, for example.
"Unpredictable climate and extreme weather was a factor in 26 of the 33 nations that were hit by food crises in 2019, and was the main driver in 12 of the countries. “After a decade of steady decline, hunger is on the rise again – over 820 million suffered from hunger in 2018, the latest global data available,” the report says."
There is a lot worse to come.
I can't imagine india being a nice place to live in the near future, once the himilaya's melt it will basically be turned into a desert with massive water scarcity, salt water killing crops and serious flooding esp in east india. The prime minister and BJP if they are still around will focus anger on muslims (he is an admirer of adolf hitler), and the risk of a nuclear war with pakistan will be worse than it is now.
This virus is obviously a big problem but it's miniscule compared to climate change.
One of 3 non decent human beings on a site of 5 people with between 2-3 decent human beings
Along with the oil price war between Russia and the Saudis, here's a few other off-topic things that have happened but been overshadowed by the coronavirus:
- Plague of locusts about to tear through Africa, which is related to climate change:
"It’s a scene that’s playing out across East Africa as swarms of desert locusts spread through the region, destroying crops and pastures at a voracious pace. The United Nations has warned of an unprecedented threat to food security in a part of the world where millions already face hunger. And the situation will probably get worse before it gets better.
Experts say the outbreak—the worst in recent memory—is caused by an increased number of cyclones. If the weather trends continue, there may be more to come.
“There is a link between climate change and the unprecedented locust crisis plaguing Ethiopia and East Africa,” UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres said. “Warmer seas mean more cyclones generating the perfect breeding ground for locusts. Today the swarms are as big as major cities and it is getting worse by the day.” https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2020-africa-locusts/
- Dengue fever cases are rising
- US is doing massive airstrikes in Iraq
- US Congress is trying to pass a bill that will end end-to-end encryption on communication platforms
- Parliament passed a reform allowing Putin to remain president until 2036
Some pretty dark shit. Won't be derailing this thread further but keep in mind this is a perfect timing for a lot of bad shit to happen as people are distracted (or hyperfocused, depending on the situation), so don't just put all your focus on the coronavirus if you can afford not to.
I do think if you take huge precautions you might be able to find ways of travelling where your risk of infection isn't that high or where you can guarantee that in case you or your girlfriend gets very sick, you get the necessary treatment that you would need to survive. As it stands otherwise it seems like a terrible risk to take right now and I would recommend you to wait. The longer we have to understand what we are dealing with, the better the chances you get the right treatment and /some form of new cure/something that lowers mortality. Thank you for doing the isolation thing and your family as well thus far, for all we know everyone who does it saves a lot of people and that is the most pressing issue right now.
We're both in our early 30s and quite healthy currently so not too worried about it. My girlfriend has to keep working and commuting in Japan though which sucks. Right now life over there is going on fairly normally. There is talk that the government is suppressing the numbers/it's hard to get tested, but people aren't panicking. They are pretty much used to catastrophes. Main thing I'd be worried about is when I come back, but I'll just rent a place and self-isolate for a couple weeks to be safe.
fuck I should just sell some of my Pokemon cards, if no one stakes that is what I will have to do - lostaccount
Last edit: 17/03/2020 20:09
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blackjacki2 United States. Mar 17 2020 08:31. Posts 2581
I have a flight to Japan April 15, my plans are also in limbo.
In other news, I got COVID tested today because I've had a viral illness and we've had positive patients at work. I don't think I have it but better safe than sorry.
On March 16 2020 20:59 Spitfiree wrote:
Yeah, I believe your opinion on that is quite untrue. It's hard to point anything 'outlandish' since your previous comment is ' its better to panic than take it lightly' so you're trying to find the middle ground I suppose, that's fair.
The thing is, this event is already unprecedented in our modern history post-antibiotics. People give examples of the spanish flu yet they forget that it still managed to kill millions, while mass transport was only a sci-fi belief for decades to come. We're not prepared, I'm actually glad that politicians started panicking, but its already too late now. We're most likely going to be stuck at least for a few months just to slow it down and then if we're lucky there won't be a second wave in the autumn/winter. There's not going to be a vaccine any time soon. Everything points out to this virus going to go through its entire growth cycle
So to make the points:
-almost every public business will be closed for months
-businesses that have them as clients will also be hurt directly out of that
-we'll be stuck in our homes
This is pretty much a dystopian situation right now, im not sure what else you'd consider as 'society collapsing' but anything worse than that is basically our extinction
What we're lucky about is that this isnt some superbug immune to antibiotics
Have to agree and after 1 week of exhausting writing and talking and phoning people and trying to finding plausible arguments that counter the data I found.... I am basically accepting that I try my best, will only convince a small population and brace for impact. In 2 weeks the same people will come back to me for advise and I will forgive and help, I hope they only show my text to their friends and laugh because I am proven wrong. The worst part is the intellectual fatigue with people of high IQ, I have a hard time forgiving them. I talked today with my aunt who is a retired doctor. She had 2 burn outs because she couldn't leave people in need and was always taking everything to heart. Today I talked to her about the numbers, the crisis ahead and all that stuff. She agreed with everything but told me to stay cool and not panic and that we cannot do much anyways. Yet doesn't go to the press, doesn't talk with virus experts, doesn't call people up. I talked to her about exponential growth and how she is not equipped to understand it and that it will be much worse and that she can save lives right now by not only isolating but also convincing others. She is contemplating to come back out of retirement to help with the worst cases of the epidemic when she already has health conditions and is in the highest mortality rate. The manual labor to save people in the hospital is so much less productive in a few weeks than telling 1-2 people that have influence to understand the data and act accordingly. It is sickening how stupid everyone is and the cost to benefit ratio is so outlandish, worst case you will be made fun of. I really feel like I am going crazy with this, it is so saddening to see. The worst part everyone with a decent brain who looked at the data agrees with me, they are just in different modes of acceptance instead of calling people up. I don't understand
On the brighter side of things, you will have learned quite a bit about the world you live in and the people with whom you share this earth, and the meaninglessness of things like IQ, which isn't representative of general intelligence or "wisdom".
The reason we are in this situation, fundamentally, is because people have a blind faith in authorities, and have been robbed of their autonomy, and kept in the dark about the way power operates in this world. Whether it's because they believe in some God or some political party, or their parents or community leaders; people have never been equipped to think for themselves. The societies of mass consumption that we exist in can only survive because of this fact.
The positives of something like this might be to reawaken the need for mutual aid and a general disillusionment with representationalism, but I wouldn't hold my breath. This is just the beginning of a series of crises that have been in the cards for a long time and which a profit-oriented world could not be prepared to handle properly, and it pales in comparison with the impacts that climate change will have. The way you feel right now is the way millions of ecologically-conscious people have been feeling for years: that we are walking towards a cliff as a species and most people don't seem to notice or be able to care, and it's depressing and anxiety-inducing to have to interact with such people and also depressing and anxiety-inducing to resign yourself to the fact that nothing is likely going to change before it's too late.
On March 16 2020 00:31 FiSheYe wrote:
More countries will follow with quarantine and complete shutdown. I suspect we aren't being told the full truth. I hope Italy and South Korea's HUGE discrepancy is based on purely the factors we discussed
The outbreak in Korea started in a sect compromised by mostly younger people, that is why the mortality rate is so low, the infection rate being so low is because they have handled this better than any other country, included China.
The Joe Rogan podcast is quite good to share to someone corrupted by misinformation btw, then again people like that mostly wouldn't spend 1,5 hrs watching a video if its not 'fast and furious' alike.
Cliff notes:
- Most likely spread by breathing, but not fully confirmed yet, if it gets confirmed the whole thing about masks becomes pretty useless
-- The second option is by droplets via air, in which case masks are pretty good - thus wouldn't hurt to use for now, but rather don't buy any to not overload healthcare providers more
- Hand sanitizers are actually pretty good
- Closing schools is probably a bad idea cause children seem to be unaffected and this will take a portion of the healthcare staff away from where they're most needed
- Skeptical prognosis is we will be in this situation for at least a few months (3-7)
- There is no real data suggesting that the summer will act as a neutralizer, in other cases like SARS they only dealt with it in June because they managed to track down every individual and isolate them, it had absolutely nothing to do with the weather
- Having a vaccine in the next year is mostly happy wishing
- Dude's advice on precautions we can take is literally the most obvious ones - keep fit, eat healthy, sleep properly.
- On a side note, he debunks the use of probiotics, even though he used to be a major supporter the data just doesn't support their usefulness
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blackjacki2 United States. Mar 17 2020 10:01. Posts 2581
^If it's airborne then n95 masks are still useful
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blackjacki2 United States. Mar 17 2020 10:07. Posts 2581
Regarding the climate change comparisons - I posted this the other day, I'm sure many have had the same thought
Scientists: Climate change threatens the future of younger generations
Government: Well we can't damage the economy to do anything about that
Scientists: There's a novel virus out that threatens the elderly but leaves younger generations relatively unharmed
Government: SHUT DOWN EVERYTHING!!
Just in case anyone needed to be reminded the that boomers still run the country
The same mask advice, the stupidity and hubris of these people.
"Masks dont work... so save them for the healthcare providers" how does that make any fucking sense.. also every single country who has slowed down the spread wear masks compulsively, the ones who are spiraling out of control don't, only a stupid government would follow Italy's steps instead of Korea's, only a stupid person would follow Italians steps instead of Koreans
Ex-PokerStars Team Pro Online
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Liquid`Drone Norway. Mar 17 2020 11:43. Posts 3093
meh, it's consistent with a 'masks work in certain scenarios' - message. That is; they diminish the spread if you yourself have the virus, they are essential for medical personnel who are working closely with infected people; but for ordinary, non-infected, non-trained people who might get the virus on their hands through touching surfaces and who then keep touching their face a couple times per minute, it might just mean you have the virus next to your mouth and nose for longer.
So sure, if everybody has one then it helps stop the spread, but if you're a healthy dude commuting to work and people around you aren't wearing them, then your own chances of catching it don't decrease. And
if they are in limited supply it becomes significantly more important that medical personnel have them.
I believe it was mostly a messaging to discourage individuals from hoarding them selfishly, which seems important.
lol POKER
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LemOn[5thF] Czech Republic. Mar 17 2020 12:09. Posts 15163
Abusing the corona by power STATE TRIES TO CRUSH A WORLD CLASS LABORATORY FOR DOING CHEAP TESTS
Basically there's a molecular biologist who by chance got sent 2 people that kept hopelessly trying to get tested but our Universal Healthcare turned them down
Like all universal healthcare there's a lot of bureaucracy and red tape and just like during communism it's driven by who's friends with whom
So she tested them, they both came positive
She charged them $50, because that's what the procedure costs in countless other tests and is the same for corona.
State tests cost $150 - $250.
What happened next you can't make up
- Government bans smaller laboratories from testing
- the healthcare minister goes on live TV, saying that an unauthorised tester got infected by mishandling the virus
The Prime minister emerges behind him and Starts interrogating him live on TV to give him the name - he's a former communism secret police collaborator and 2nd richest person in the country so he knows how.
- Says the name of the biologist, and that she's in hospitalised with corona
- Which SHE WASN'T , at all, and baffled watched this from her laboratory on national TV, while relatives and friends started sending her messages asking if she's okay
- Then the guy leading the epidemiology for the government tries to discredit her method which turns out is 3X cheaper with same result
- Laboratories from all over the world including the US contacted her to share the faster method with them
- she hears from 3 separate sources from the ministry that they will try to crush her laboratory
- only weeks after this happened, under pressure they might allow laboratories like hers to test people
and might have no choice to allow hers as well
93% Sure!
Last edit: 17/03/2020 12:16
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LemOn[5thF] Czech Republic. Mar 17 2020 12:13. Posts 15163
He also had an emergency government meeting
Everything about corona
And tried to sneak in an add-on bylaw about tracking of ownership of companies at the end
While being under investigation of subsidy corruption in one of his sister companies
Not sure what happened to it, he might well have passed it
So yes no doubt there will be backroom shenanigans happening that will fly under the radar now
On March 17 2020 09:14 Baalim wrote:
The same mask advice, the stupidity and hubris of these people.
"Masks dont work... so save them for the healthcare providers" how does that make any fucking sense.. also every single country who has slowed down the spread wear masks compulsively, the ones who are spiraling out of control don't, only a stupid government would follow Italy's steps instead of Korea's, only a stupid person would follow Italians steps instead of Koreans
Or you know, you can panic, tell everyone to go buy masks, meaning supply wont meet demand, people that don't need them will get them and there will be none left for new cases which will escalate the spreading of the disease.
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LemOn[5thF] Czech Republic. Mar 17 2020 15:49. Posts 15163
FFP2+ are needed for people in the front line
But it's a going point you should be getting crappy ones or making your own
On March 17 2020 06:56 Loco wrote:
Right now life over there is going on fairly normally. There is talk that the government is suppressing the numbers/it's hard to get tested, but people aren't panicking. They are pretty much used to catastrophes.
What's happening here is pretty much the opposite of social distancing and flattening the curve. Some of my older friends were forced to work remote so they go to each others' house every day because they don't want to work alone lol. Japanese people generally don't understand english or communicate with the west at all. Even if they use something like twitter they have their own ecosystem and don't see tweets that go viral in the US etc. It's pretty much a completely separate experiment.
GroT
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Santafairy Korea (South). Mar 17 2020 17:54. Posts 2225
>it's spread by coughing
>an alarming number of asymptomatic young people can get it and unknowingly pass it on
hmmmm
It seems to be not very profitable in the long run to play those kind of hands. - Gus Hansen
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Stroggoz New Zealand. Mar 17 2020 19:48. Posts 5296
I guess this means the end of the eurozone. I don't see it surviving the virus
One of 3 non decent human beings on a site of 5 people with between 2-3 decent human beings
1
LemOn[5thF] Czech Republic. Mar 17 2020 19:53. Posts 15163
On March 17 2020 18:48 Stroggoz wrote:
I guess this means the end of the eurozone. I don't see it surviving the virus
Huh? No chance countries will be leaving immediately after or during this
because doing so is a huge burden on the economy and Brexit example is a deterrent almost
I do hope this will make countries take a long hard look at Brussels and all the useless red tape and inability to act they've clearly showed with this
On March 16 2020 20:59 Spitfiree wrote:
Yeah, I believe your opinion on that is quite untrue. It's hard to point anything 'outlandish' since your previous comment is ' its better to panic than take it lightly' so you're trying to find the middle ground I suppose, that's fair.
The thing is, this event is already unprecedented in our modern history post-antibiotics. People give examples of the spanish flu yet they forget that it still managed to kill millions, while mass transport was only a sci-fi belief for decades to come. We're not prepared, I'm actually glad that politicians started panicking, but its already too late now. We're most likely going to be stuck at least for a few months just to slow it down and then if we're lucky there won't be a second wave in the autumn/winter. There's not going to be a vaccine any time soon. Everything points out to this virus going to go through its entire growth cycle
So to make the points:
-almost every public business will be closed for months
-businesses that have them as clients will also be hurt directly out of that
-we'll be stuck in our homes
This is pretty much a dystopian situation right now, im not sure what else you'd consider as 'society collapsing' but anything worse than that is basically our extinction
What we're lucky about is that this isnt some superbug immune to antibiotics
Have to agree and after 1 week of exhausting writing and talking and phoning people and trying to finding plausible arguments that counter the data I found.... I am basically accepting that I try my best, will only convince a small population and brace for impact. In 2 weeks the same people will come back to me for advise and I will forgive and help, I hope they only show my text to their friends and laugh because I am proven wrong. The worst part is the intellectual fatigue with people of high IQ, I have a hard time forgiving them. I talked today with my aunt who is a retired doctor. She had 2 burn outs because she couldn't leave people in need and was always taking everything to heart. Today I talked to her about the numbers, the crisis ahead and all that stuff. She agreed with everything but told me to stay cool and not panic and that we cannot do much anyways. Yet doesn't go to the press, doesn't talk with virus experts, doesn't call people up. I talked to her about exponential growth and how she is not equipped to understand it and that it will be much worse and that she can save lives right now by not only isolating but also convincing others. She is contemplating to come back out of retirement to help with the worst cases of the epidemic when she already has health conditions and is in the highest mortality rate. The manual labor to save people in the hospital is so much less productive in a few weeks than telling 1-2 people that have influence to understand the data and act accordingly. It is sickening how stupid everyone is and the cost to benefit ratio is so outlandish, worst case you will be made fun of. I really feel like I am going crazy with this, it is so saddening to see. The worst part everyone with a decent brain who looked at the data agrees with me, they are just in different modes of acceptance instead of calling people up. I don't understand
On the brighter side of things, you will have learned quite a bit about the world you live in and the people with whom you share this earth, and the meaninglessness of things like IQ, which isn't representative of general intelligence or "wisdom".
The reason we are in this situation, fundamentally, is because people have a blind faith in authorities, and have been robbed of their autonomy, and kept in the dark about the way power operates in this world. Whether it's because they believe in some God or some political party, or their parents or community leaders; people have never been equipped to think for themselves. The societies of mass consumption that we exist in can only survive because of this fact.
The positives of something like this might be to reawaken the need for mutual aid and a general disillusionment with representationalism, but I wouldn't hold my breath. This is just the beginning of a series of crises that have been in the cards for a long time and which a profit-oriented world could not be prepared to handle properly, and it pales in comparison with the impacts that climate change will have. The way you feel right now is the way millions of ecologically-conscious people have been feeling for years: that we are walking towards a cliff as a species and most people don't seem to notice or be able to care, and it's depressing and anxiety-inducing to have to interact with such people and also depressing and anxiety-inducing to resign yourself to the fact that nothing is likely going to change before it's too late.
mostly agree with Loco
Couple more important things people might have learned from this (which ties into the faith in representationalism I mentioned):
- Companies understand that it is completely unnecessary for their business to be in the office
- It is incredible how fast governments and whole industries can make decisions if they have to. They just do so after a lot of avoidable misery has occurred through their own myopic self-interest.
fuck I should just sell some of my Pokemon cards, if no one stakes that is what I will have to do - lostaccount
On March 17 2020 18:48 Stroggoz wrote:
I guess this means the end of the eurozone. I don't see it surviving the virus
What makes you say that? It's certainly the biggest challenge after they've had to do with its prior biggest challenge (Brexit) but the EU is responding quite adequately right now, they've reinvested all the unspent funds into the healthcare systems of all EU nations for starters and closed off all border for foreigners. They've also NOT questioned individual states shutting down their borders completely, which I think is a very good thing ( wouldn't have been surprised if bureaucrats tried to argue differently even in times of crisis tbh)
Basically we don't know what the use of masks it. Certainly some masks are better than others. Also keep in mind the theory that sounds logical to me, if you get sneezed in your mouth (children to this to their parents) the viral load is so much bigger than if you touch a door knob after say 20 hours. Your body has likely the chance to get your immune-system up a lot better and it spreads slower in you. I think it seems irrational not to wear mask when all the countries who are doing "ok" are wearing them and force people to wear them. Just think for a moment
Also keep in mind that your eyes need to be covered, too. Wear something for them.
If you go outside and touch your phone etc. and you come home and wash your hands, don't forget about everything else. If it indeed stays 48-72hours on the phone or metals/plastics, you should make sure that you either keep it in the jacket or clean it first before your hands etc.
We should be crazy careful until we know more. Things are moving so fast, we can see who did well (China / Korea) and we can see who crashes and burns now (Italy, Germany, USA, etc.). Then we can see who has the most damage, least, etc. pp
Just don't be a moron, this is the time to be a smart gambler with risk, not a degen
Also for all you stock market guys. Talked to two friends who have 50-100 Mio. private capital.
One is the founder of poker strategy, once they learned about the situation they sold ALL stox they had. Let that sink in, those are top percentile IQ people.
On March 17 2020 18:48 Stroggoz wrote:
I guess this means the end of the eurozone. I don't see it surviving the virus
What makes you say that? It's certainly the biggest challenge after they've had to do with its prior biggest challenge (Brexit) but the EU is responding quite adequately right now, they've reinvested all the unspent funds into the healthcare systems of all EU nations for starters and closed off all border for foreigners. They've also NOT questioned individual states shutting down their borders completely, which I think is a very good thing ( wouldn't have been surprised if bureaucrats tried to argue differently even in times of crisis tbh)
this is a good explanation of what's going on. Perhaps i was a bit hyperbolic in that claim.
One of 3 non decent human beings on a site of 5 people with between 2-3 decent human beings
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vasoline73 United States. Mar 18 2020 06:31. Posts 808
Fisheye the virus is likely going to end up in the .06% fatality range. It's large (6X flu) but I would recommend that you start to relax. At this point governments across the western world are taking it very seriously. The average citizen has no choice but to follow stringent measures. We'll be alright man.
I guess what I'm trying to say is... the governments are panicking for you. Everyone is being forced to comply with panicked measures. We'll be alright man. You can take it easier now that others are stepping in to be responsible. Give it a few months and hang tight. Cheers.
On March 17 2020 10:43 Liquid`Drone wrote:
meh, it's consistent with a 'masks work in certain scenarios' - message. That is; they diminish the spread if you yourself have the virus, they are essential for medical personnel who are working closely with infected people; but for ordinary, non-infected, non-trained people who might get the virus on their hands through touching surfaces and who then keep touching their face a couple times per minute, it might just mean you have the virus next to your mouth and nose for longer.
So sure, if everybody has one then it helps stop the spread, but if you're a healthy dude commuting to work and people around you aren't wearing them, then your own chances of catching it don't decrease. And
if they are in limited supply it becomes significantly more important that medical personnel have them.
I believe it was mostly a messaging to discourage individuals from hoarding them selfishly, which seems important.
this is shortsighted, sure the masks are more useful in sick and doctors but they overall diminish the odds of contagion, if you diminish the odds of contagion and it has a compounding effect like vaccination, efforts to mass produce them should be done, not lying to the public.
On March 17 2020 09:14 Baalim wrote:
The same mask advice, the stupidity and hubris of these people.
"Masks dont work... so save them for the healthcare providers" how does that make any fucking sense.. also every single country who has slowed down the spread wear masks compulsively, the ones who are spiraling out of control don't, only a stupid government would follow Italy's steps instead of Korea's, only a stupid person would follow Italians steps instead of Koreans
Or you know, you can panic, tell everyone to go buy masks, meaning supply wont meet demand, people that don't need them will get them and there will be none left for new cases which will escalate the spreading of the disease.
you focus on supply then, governments should have started lines of production for these many weeks ago.
On March 18 2020 05:31 vasoline73 wrote:
Fisheye the virus is likely going to end up in the .06% fatality range. It's large (6X flu) but I would recommend that you start to relax. At this point governments across the western world are taking it very seriously. The average citizen has no choice but to follow stringent measures. We'll be alright man.
I guess what I'm trying to say is... the governments are panicking for you. Everyone is being forced to comply with panicked measures. We'll be alright man. You can take it easier now that others are stepping in to be responsible. Give it a few months and hang tight. Cheers.
No, the governments are not panincked at all, they are have been always two steps behind even while watching neighbors collapse.
Macron said closing border with Italy wasn't neccesary now they are going into full lockdown, they aren't aggressivly testing, they aren't setting fever-clinics nor quarintine hospitals like Korea, Western leadership has been asleep at the wheel and is finally reacting but too late.
agreed that they took way too long to take it seriously. also in Japan they are still not taking it seriously enough, they don't provide tests for most people who want them, and lots of people are still going to work and commuting as normal, even socializing. Only yesterday did they announce restrictions to "Spain, including the Madrid region; four areas in Italy, including the northern region of Liguria; the Ticino region of southern Switzerland; and all of Iceland."
They expect people to put themselves under 2 weeks self-quarantine upon arrival, that's just not going to happen for most people realistically, and you can bet your ass most will still use public transportation that is packed with people.
fuck I should just sell some of my Pokemon cards, if no one stakes that is what I will have to do - lostaccount
Last edit: 18/03/2020 08:03
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Stroggoz New Zealand. Mar 18 2020 08:39. Posts 5296
On March 18 2020 05:31 vasoline73 wrote:
Fisheye the virus is likely going to end up in the .06% fatality range. It's large (6X flu) but I would recommend that you start to relax. At this point governments across the western world are taking it very seriously. The average citizen has no choice but to follow stringent measures. We'll be alright man.
I guess what I'm trying to say is... the governments are panicking for you. Everyone is being forced to comply with panicked measures. We'll be alright man. You can take it easier now that others are stepping in to be responsible. Give it a few months and hang tight. Cheers.
the economic and political fallout will be worse than the virus itself imo, so there is a lot to be worried about. Every government in the world is relfexively looking to exploit this crisis somehow. It also presents an opportunity for leftists, (who will undoubtly become more popular), to push for the environmental policies that are seriously needed. The keynesian stimulus plans around the world are predictably not using this as an opportunity to green the economy, and in fact china is cutting back on environmental regulation to boost the economy
One of 3 non decent human beings on a site of 5 people with between 2-3 decent human beings
On March 18 2020 05:31 vasoline73 wrote:
Fisheye the virus is likely going to end up in the .06% fatality range. It's large (6X flu) but I would recommend that you start to relax. At this point governments across the western world are taking it very seriously. The average citizen has no choice but to follow stringent measures. We'll be alright man.
I guess what I'm trying to say is... the governments are panicking for you. Everyone is being forced to comply with panicked measures. We'll be alright man. You can take it easier now that others are stepping in to be responsible. Give it a few months and hang tight. Cheers.
Mate, I think you still didn't look into the data and understand what is happening. There is nobody that looked into it and came out with 6x or 10x flu, trust me on this. You didn't look into it hard enough, I can walk you through it or explain where you might misunderstand the data. For sure you are not living in Wuhan, Korea or Italy. But when it becomes apparent that you were wrong, your town is already fucked.
The next few days are the most critical at this point. I will relax when in a few days people in my city will be forced into their homes, until then every day counts.
Open your eyes and mind and try to see it objectively, rational. What is the risk right now, what is the reward, how long do I need to take these measures?
If in a few days things calm down, you can calm down and I will calm down. Until then you should take it for what it is, the worst crisis you have ever seen that hasn't fully happened yet.
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LemOn[5thF] Czech Republic. Mar 18 2020 10:15. Posts 15163
On March 17 2020 18:48 Stroggoz wrote:
I guess this means the end of the eurozone. I don't see it surviving the virus
What makes you say that? It's certainly the biggest challenge after they've had to do with its prior biggest challenge (Brexit) but the EU is responding quite adequately right now, they've reinvested all the unspent funds into the healthcare systems of all EU nations for starters and closed off all border for foreigners. They've also NOT questioned individual states shutting down their borders completely, which I think is a very good thing ( wouldn't have been surprised if bureaucrats tried to argue differently even in times of crisis tbh)
this is a good explanation of what's going on. Perhaps i was a bit hyperbolic in that claim.
Oh by eurozone you mean countries that have Euro the currency?
Haven't heard that term used much we just say countries with Euro
There are countries in EU that don't have Euro and never had it like my country and it has obvious advantages in times like this as central bank has more tools to deal with specific situation of the country. And most of our population doesn't want Euro but strongly supports being in the EU
On the other hand shit economics WITH euro force the hands of the strong ones to bail them our like happened with Greece so I'm not sure they would leave it either
93% Sure!
Last edit: 18/03/2020 10:17
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LemOn[5thF] Czech Republic. Mar 18 2020 10:23. Posts 15163
As to EU it doesn't make sense to leave it for anyone
Strong countries have more power
Weaker countries get subsidies
And everyone benefits from free trade
I think reform is needed and Brussels is getting way too bloated, bureaucratic and getting executive powers it clearly can't handle swiftly end there will hopefully be a push now to deal with this but nobody will be leaving on the continent unless they get some dumb short term populist movements.
UK is a really special case, it was always us and them, you'd say you are "travelling to Europe" etc. In the UK and in England there's a lot of nostalgia for the old Empire
I know a lot of Scottish people want independence and joining the EU and it's probably going to happen in the next couple decades
93% Sure!
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LemOn[5thF] Czech Republic. Mar 18 2020 16:17. Posts 15163
Just in czech so here goes
2 young women spoke what happened when one of them got it. They live like 5km from my flat in my city
One of them galled her GP, told her she has symptoms, she told her to call emergency services line
-4.5 hours wait time, got through eventually
Told her if she wasn't in direct contact with someone from Italy or someone confirmed, they won't test her
- told her to call GP
- She called her GP, GP told her to come in
- her GP started mocking her for wearing a face mask said that it's useless, took a quick look at her
- told her to take paracethamol and go home, it'a flu, not need for quarantine. She felt relieved and a bit embarrassed for overreacting.
=> met her parents, went to buy food in a supermarket with them just in case
- it got worse she got 38-39 degree fever 6 days straight, unbearable headache and trouble breathing - she says the headache is the worst and has been crying all saturday from the pain
=> She assumed since it's not corona that she has bacterial infection and might need antibiotics
=> Went to emergency in a hospital. By Subway.
=> Doctor there started yelling at her and mocking her for coming in that she has Corona probably and infected people there
=> The emergency doctor changed into protective suit (DIDN'T Have it as default, they don't)
The girl felt guilty for sidelining her for 2 weeks +
=> did tests on her
=> next day called confirmed she has corona
She has a roommate (also in the video)
since she thought it's just a basic flu they went for a walk with a dog together etc. (COMMENT: I know, dumb => We just aren't used to this and this will hopefully change how people approach viruses... I catch something and have to stay home several times per year for one)
=> next day she felt sore throat/lungs a bit => assumed they were outside for a long time night before so she got a cold
2 days later the first girl asked her to go to the emergency (See the subway trip)
=> Then got the same symptoms, kept going worse
Hard to breathe, 38-39 fevers, hard headaches, teeth eyes hurt
Apparently it gets gradually worse, starts as normal sore throat and gets progressively worse every day with more symptoms.
Next day they CALLED THE ROOMMATE (2nd girl) who OBVIOUSLY 100% had it, told her they will not count her as a person with corona until she has official tests and they can GET TO HER IN ABOUT A WEEK to test her
=> She agreed, told them to move her down the list since she knows she has it anyways.
TREATMENT when they called her she's positive
-got told to use paracetamol
=got told to stay home, and to call an ambulance in case of suffocating or possibly dying, no earlier than that
- told them to stay brave
SECONDARY CASES
the roommate was in prolonged contact with her friends but they can't get tested yet because she officially doesn't count as a person with corona even though she 100% has it - you need to be in contact with someone to be tested.
Bottom line
Don't get Corona if you live in a country with universal healthcare.
93% Sure!
Last edit: 18/03/2020 16:37
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Santafairy Korea (South). Mar 18 2020 16:41. Posts 2225
That was a gritty and fascinating anecdote and window into the reality of the virus in Europe until the last line tuned you into a complete imbecile hack
It seems to be not very profitable in the long run to play those kind of hands. - Gus Hansen
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LemOn[5thF] Czech Republic. Mar 18 2020 16:56. Posts 15163
That's just the reality of our universal healthcare - it's standard to meet rude unmotivated doctors that just don't care, it's more about the numbers and little about quality of service
and know we're actually doing a lot better than NHS.
FYI if you don't believe me
- the state and state healthcare actively suppressed and shut down private laboratories that did way cheaper, reliable and faster tests
that showed corona on patients that the state healthcare turned down from testing (they discovered 2/6 first cases)
Also, your mother is a complete imbecile hack.
93% Sure!
Last edit: 18/03/2020 17:01
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Santafairy Korea (South). Mar 18 2020 17:10. Posts 2225
that's the reality of YOUR universal healthcare
It seems to be not very profitable in the long run to play those kind of hands. - Gus Hansen
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LemOn[5thF] Czech Republic. Mar 18 2020 17:37. Posts 15163
Well that's all I know
- Czech and UK
so naturally I will go with my anecdotal evidence.
I am for universal healthcare btw, was always perplexed how someone as insanely rich and advanced as the US seemed to us when communism fell doesn't have it.
The reality just sets in when you need a response to something like this
93% Sure!
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LemOn[5thF] Czech Republic. Mar 18 2020 17:50. Posts 15163
Serious scientists putting real info out there at last!
93% Sure!
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Liquid`Drone Norway. Mar 18 2020 18:37. Posts 3093
I've never heard anyone in Norway describe a situation even remotely similar to what you described. Like out of 100+ anecdotes nothing even remotely similar to that. But yea you can totally extrapolate it to all countries with universal healthcare.
lol POKER
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LemOn[5thF] Czech Republic. Mar 18 2020 18:38. Posts 15163
I was wrong you were right
our healthcare reacted slowly that happens to be state run.
"The valve typically costs about $11,000 from the medical device manufacturer, but the volunteers were able to print replicas for about $1" (40 cents at most if ordered from China)
fuck I should just sell some of my Pokemon cards, if no one stakes that is what I will have to do - lostaccount
hey guys, so a lot of people are not aware that this is not a drill and hopefully everyone understand now why I was so active past few days. I assume the next days almost everyone will be informed about this or can read through the forecasts and add 1+1. Will still post but not as much anymore, haven't had much rest lately.
You guys stay healthy, we will get through this, #HumanityFirst
it basically says that when things get considered safe people will leave quarantine and another smaller event will happen causing the same drills to occur over and over until vaccine...vaccine expectation is 18 months so this will actually last about that amount of time?
"The valve typically costs about $11,000 from the medical device manufacturer, but the volunteers were able to print replicas for about $1" (40 cents at most if ordered from China)
Medical patents are out of control.
How nearsighted a company has to be to sue these guys bringing massive negative attention to them and their practices, if you are gong to be a cartoon villian at least be fucking smart.
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NewbSaibot United States. Mar 19 2020 03:58. Posts 4943
I'm more interested in how this may reshape the world afterwards. Even if it's "just the flu" people are shook. My company closed doors and so far I've been greenlit to work from home (IT support, most of what I do is remote anyway). I see lots of amazon/fedex/ups deliveries every day. Grocery store shelves are being cleaned out faster and faster so it doesnt appear the panic is dying out, and all this talk about how "consumption hasnt changed, supply lines are still intact" doesnt seem to be holding much water. I dont know if people are just hoarding everything besides TP now or what, but I'm eating cereal with skim milk and peanut butter sandwiches with some weird $7/loaf banana grain bread because it was all that was left. But I've only had to put 5 miles in my car in the last week. My tank may hang at 50% for the next year at this rate. Everything i want and/or need I can probably order online.
I'm sure CEO's everywhere are sweating profusely at the idea of people no longer needing to wear a tie and sit at a desk in a big fancy building. Big box stores cant control the panic whilst online retailers like Amazon can. Some asshole wants to buy a pallet of toilet paper? Sorry sir according to you purchase history you have reached your maximum allotment. Right now grocery stores are putting little placards on every shelf saying "no more than 2 per customer" but people ignore it, throw tantrums in front of the cashier, or just come right back and buy again from a different cashier. It's totally unenforceable. But online shopping can restrict that. Boom panic over. Boom no more workday commutes. No more wasteful gas or traffic. Everyone who can works from home. Are these all good things?
Im freaking out at the idea this will last many months as its suggested there will be more than one spike of the virus...
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Stroggoz New Zealand. Mar 19 2020 06:03. Posts 5296
the abuse of patents in pharma industry is something everyone across the political spectrum can agree on, i think.
there are basically two justifications the pharma industry uses for patent: (im quoting from a book called 'the value of everything').
They argue that these prices are proportionate to the intrinsic ‘value’ of the drugs. ‘Price is the wrong discussion,’ declared Gilead’s Executive Vice-President Gregg Alton, responding to criticism over the price of Sovaldi: ‘value should be the subject.’ John LaMattina, former Vice-President of Pfizer and a leading figure in the pharmaceutical industry, was even more explicit. In a 2014 piece published in Forbes under the title ‘Politicians shouldn’t question drug costs but rather their value’, he argued that: in the mind of patients, physicians, and payers, the pricing of drugs should have little to do with the expense of biomedical R&D, nor should it be associated with recouping R&D investment. Pricing should be based on only one thing – the value that the drug brings to healthcare in terms of:
1) saving lives;
2) mitigating pain/suffering and improving the quality of life of patients;
3) reducing overall healthcare costs.
By this logic, water and food should be priced astronolomically high since human's can't live without. Water is even better at saving lives than medicine. And pharma CEO's should have to pay millions of dollars for every glass of water.
Their old justification was a little better, it was: we need these high patent prices because we have to spend money on research and development to get them. but someone discredited that by showing that RandD stayed the same as more and more patents were being issued. Also a lot of the patents are for me too drugs, one's that are essentially the same but modified slightly to preserve profit rights off the property.
One of 3 non decent human beings on a site of 5 people with between 2-3 decent human beings
Last edit: 19/03/2020 06:05
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Santafairy Korea (South). Mar 19 2020 07:06. Posts 2225
"The valve typically costs about $11,000 from the medical device manufacturer, but the volunteers were able to print replicas for about $1" (40 cents at most if ordered from China)
i know that there are cases like with drugs where a national emergency can take precedence over patents. this happened in thailand to some HIV drug, they declared an epidemic to produce it cheaply as generics, but the drug company retaliated by pulling everything else out of the thai market or something
medical industry is unfortunate because it's run by sociopaths. please martin shkreli needs to raise the price of immune drugs so he can put the money into research...ing how much cocaine he can snort
people don't think about being patients in their own system, this is where ethics disappear
anyway evil can't survive on its own
like you can have the most sadistic serial killer in prison, if he has a toothache he will be like oh god please help fill this cavity, prison dentist.
It seems to be not very profitable in the long run to play those kind of hands. - Gus Hansen
On March 19 2020 02:58 NewbSaibot wrote:
I'm more interested in how this may reshape the world afterwards. Even if it's "just the flu" people are shook. My company closed doors and so far I've been greenlit to work from home (IT support, most of what I do is remote anyway). I see lots of amazon/fedex/ups deliveries every day. Grocery store shelves are being cleaned out faster and faster so it doesnt appear the panic is dying out, and all this talk about how "consumption hasnt changed, supply lines are still intact" doesnt seem to be holding much water. I dont know if people are just hoarding everything besides TP now or what, but I'm eating cereal with skim milk and peanut butter sandwiches with some weird $7/loaf banana grain bread because it was all that was left. But I've only had to put 5 miles in my car in the last week. My tank may hang at 50% for the next year at this rate. Everything i want and/or need I can probably order online.
I'm sure CEO's everywhere are sweating profusely at the idea of people no longer needing to wear a tie and sit at a desk in a big fancy building. Big box stores cant control the panic whilst online retailers like Amazon can. Some asshole wants to buy a pallet of toilet paper? Sorry sir according to you purchase history you have reached your maximum allotment. Right now grocery stores are putting little placards on every shelf saying "no more than 2 per customer" but people ignore it, throw tantrums in front of the cashier, or just come right back and buy again from a different cashier. It's totally unenforceable. But online shopping can restrict that. Boom panic over. Boom no more workday commutes. No more wasteful gas or traffic. Everyone who can works from home. Are these all good things?
Great, you are between Phase 1 and Phase 2. My arrogant believe is I am in Phase 3 and try to talk to people who are in Phase 4 or 5.
If you find others like you, or people that you heard of that you believe are completely crazy in their forecasts but otherwise highly intelligent and rational. Please direct me towards them (also please humanitarians, not cynical ones that inform nobody, despite knowing for weeks). I started a discord ( https://discord.gg/Zb3d4w ) as mentioned prior and I opened an email ( covid19important AT following the g with the mail.com). I think the best course of action right now is to be as informed / prepared as possible and try to get as empowered as possible to be able to get out of this with the least amount of regret.
Fisheye, could you elaborate on the fibrosis statistics?
I have seen one article in SCMP from Hong Kong but it was kind of early-stage and inconclusive.
How many people does this actually affect and do we know how it happens?
I am sorry, there are so many information out there, I am in a different phase now. Cannot provide as much information anymore nor have the energy, sry but I am sure there are plenty people here that can point you.
Most important thought, if it is true, what is the harm of being careful about this, what is the cost? Cost-Benefit ratio is as out of whack as it can be right now, inform yourself today not tomorrow.
if west Europe is struggling imagine all these countries with poor government and not as much resources
Brazil is about to vanish from the map, its a complete jungle mess, Thailand might be another one with some other southeast asian countries which governors are full retards
why countries wait until they are totally fuck until they close boarders ? its not like it's going to get better before they do it, so why not do imediatelly ? Taiwan was taking heavy measures even before China
On March 20 2020 23:46 drone666 wrote:
its not like it's going to get better before they do it, so why not do imediatelly ?
I get it why it struck Italy, but the rest of the world that followed suit had no excuse, Macron splicitly said he would not close border to Italy while the infections exploded lol.
On March 27 2020 06:29 Jelle wrote:
lol ffs Harvard professor Brandon Adams predicting 5-10% to mad max on the doug polk youtubes
10% seems high, but its a possibility, picture this, China lifts quarantine the a massive second infection wave starts, hydroxicloroquine and redemivir and the other treatments show no significant improvement and the vaccine hits a deadend and is years away from development, the worlld would change as we know it but I'd say that scenario is under 5%.
its easy to think we can rebuild very fast and we I think we would, however historically the fall of the Roman Empire and others which were basically civilization, it took the world many centuries to get to that level again, about the same time the empire lasted, so perhaps it would take us several decades in this rare scenario to get back to where we are.
Several decades almost coincides exactly with the rise of neoliberalism under Reagan and Thatcher. This is the pinnacle? Destructive capitalism? Perpetual corporate stock buybacks, corporate bailouts, and corporate socialism at the expense of the PEOPLE?
JP Morgan and Chase internally finding that we are heading towards human extinction but it's business as usual because they have $85 billion invested in fossil fuels.
Warren Buffet is going to get a freaking bailout. And if you look at his portfolio he's advancing the degradation of the planet and it's ecology. Same with everyones' beloved Bill Gates. It's sickening.
And just because we mostly have solidarity over the coronavirus may not mean shit in terms of solidarity in regards to human/social Revolution.
That is the most interesting piece of covid-19 for me. How do we come out of this for the better? And I can sort of do this on an individual level by educating myself and acquiring knowledge but I feel that I am really dropping the ball in terms of the collective as I don't have many of my comrades in my phone or on discord or what have you. It's hard to achieve solidarity when one is confined to isolation. It's hard to act when one cannot leave the house.
On March 27 2020 12:55 RiKD wrote:
Several decades almost coincides exactly with the rise of neoliberalism under Reagan and Thatcher. This is the pinnacle? Destructive capitalism? Perpetual corporate stock buybacks, corporate bailouts, and corporate socialism at the expense of the PEOPLE?
JP Morgan and Chase internally finding that we are heading towards human extinction but it's business as usual because they have $85 billion invested in fossil fuels.
Warren Buffet is going to get a freaking bailout. And if you look at his portfolio he's advancing the degradation of the planet and it's ecology. Same with everyones' beloved Bill Gates. It's sickening.
And just because we mostly have solidarity over the coronavirus may not mean shit in terms of solidarity in regards to human/social Revolution.
That is the most interesting piece of covid-19 for me. How do we come out of this for the better? And I can sort of do this on an individual level by educating myself and acquiring knowledge but I feel that I am really dropping the ball in terms of the collective as I don't have many of my comrades in my phone or on discord or what have you. It's hard to achieve solidarity when one is confined to isolation. It's hard to act when one cannot leave the house.
We definitely need someone to blame. Its them, not us and definitely not "me".
What are you talking about Bill Gates is literally the billionaire that has invested all of his money into something purposeful, probably the only one apart from Musk
Also wrong thread
Also GJ to all Trump supporters. Too bad none of you will learn
Last edit: 28/03/2020 01:15
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Santafairy Korea (South). Mar 28 2020 02:22. Posts 2225
wtf i hate trump now
what kind of orange asshole invents a deadly pandemic disease and releases it to the public
It seems to be not very profitable in the long run to play those kind of hands. - Gus Hansen
On March 28 2020 00:13 Spitfiree wrote:
What are you talking about Bill Gates is literally the billionaire that has invested all of his money into something purposeful, probably the only one apart from Musk
Also wrong thread
Also GJ to all Trump supporters. Too bad none of you will learn
Bill Gates warned this would come, he has spend billions fighting pandemics and malaria and commie clowns think the state is the solution, the same state that allowed this to happen, everybody could be sailing through this like Korea but nope government has to fuck things up and here we are.
Yes lets take power away from Bill Gates, the impromptu builders of respirators like Musk, Jackma sending millions of masks and tests and lets give it to the bureacrats of the WHO, CDC and FED.
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Stroggoz New Zealand. Mar 28 2020 05:15. Posts 5296
Bill Gates has a mixed record in his philanthropy. The malaria and pandemic research funding he has done is useful, but he has also supported anti-competitive businesses like cargill and monsanto, which use patents to protect their industry, on top of subsidies. This prevents third world farmers from developing food security for their nations, and also from developing a food system that's better for the environment. Vandana Shiva has called gates one of the biggest threats to farmers. His friendships with dictators/mass murdurer like Paul Kagame is also highly questionable. Why do western elites like this guy so much when he invaded rwanda, congo, assassinated presidents, murders journalists, and started two wars that killed millions of people? I can't help but think gates would be more anti monopoly if he hadn't made money through monopolistic practicies himself.
In any case, for billionaires the most useful thing they can do is to donate their money to the rest of the world, which sorely needs it. But he should listen to what people actually want and need if he wants to actually help them, as well as listen to the economists who study global food problems.
One of 3 non decent human beings on a site of 5 people with between 2-3 decent human beings
He worked with monstanto and cargill to develop drough resistant crops to stop starvatin in Africa for fucks sake.
No he shouldnt listen to what people want, that is a terrible idea, he should develop a plan in which he thinks he can help the world most effectively with his money.
And yes he did many many shitty things while building his monopoly
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Stroggoz New Zealand. Mar 28 2020 07:12. Posts 5296
Developing drought resistant seeds is fine but why would you let monsanto patent it. Can you tell me that? Indian farmers bred seeds for thousands of years and never claimed intellectual property on it, now they are paying large amounts for seeds. It is not the only thing he has helped agribisiness on.
His plan is not good because he doesn't listen to people who know better than him.
He has not looked at the root cause of hunger in the global south. Serious people like Vandana Shiva, Walden Bello, and Yash Tandon have. If he wants to actually be serious he should listen to their perspectives. One is an activist and two are economists that have studied food shortages closely. All of them agree that it is a result of patents being used to enrich agribusiness, on things like the seed you mentioned. On top of various other things like environmental change, sturctural adjustment programes. It is not helping to stop starvation if third world farmers are forced into cash crops with volatile prices while their traditional choice of crop is undermined by subsidies from the rich countries, and it does not help if they have to pay big prices for seeds that are patented, rather than cheaper ones. I think Gates intentions are good but he is too out of touch and doesn't want to hear the truth about Intellectual Property.
One of 3 non decent human beings on a site of 5 people with between 2-3 decent human beings
Not all of Bill Gates money in the Bill and Melinda Gates fund goes to "charity." A lot of it goes to investments including large investments in McDonalds as well as Monsanto, Cargill, and other harrowing investments. They are all interrelated. He is basically wagering on agribusiness and subsidies and rigging the bet in his favor. (Water) and food is the most important need on this planet and he is fucking it all up.
We learn in the "Groundwork for the Metaphysics of Morals" by Kant that the motive is what matters.
I actually think Bill Gates motive is generally in the right place he is just misguided by who he is and where he came from.
Musk and Ma I believe are doing it for branding more than anything else. Same with any play that Besos makes.
Agribusiness is not our way out of the climate crisis it only exacerbates the problem. Heirloom seeds and seed savers are our saviors. Intelligent organic farming. Not shipping watermelons from across the world. Not overproducing avocados. All of our problems are a product of capitalism. Bill Gates is a product of capitalism. We certainly don't need growth in McDonalds. Bill Gates does. How do you guys think he "gives" all this money away and ends up richer????????????????????????????
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Santafairy Korea (South). Mar 28 2020 19:26. Posts 2225
same way you type 50question marks despite having only one key
It seems to be not very profitable in the long run to play those kind of hands. - Gus Hansen
On March 27 2020 06:29 Jelle wrote:
lol ffs Harvard professor Brandon Adams predicting 5-10% to mad max on the doug polk youtubes
10% seems high, but its a possibility, picture this, China lifts quarantine the a massive second infection wave starts, hydroxicloroquine and redemivir and the other treatments show no significant improvement and the vaccine hits a deadend and is years away from development, the worlld would change as we know it but I'd say that scenario is under 5%.
its easy to think we can rebuild very fast and we I think we would, however historically the fall of the Roman Empire and others which were basically civilization, it took the world many centuries to get to that level again, about the same time the empire lasted, so perhaps it would take us several decades in this rare scenario to get back to where we are.
making any conclusions based on what happened to the roman empire is nonsense, our soceity and technology is incomperable to that ancient one, in worst case scenario the regeneration would be magnitudes faster
also remember we had the spanish flu in 1918 which was more severe then this will ever will be (hopefully), it was tough but humanity got over it fairly quickly.
Liquid`Drone Norway. Mar 29 2020 01:56. Posts 3093
ww1 was a complete disaster, spanish flu came on top of that, then great depression happened which was a complete disaster, then ww2 which was absurdly terrible.
Still in 1950 the world was a much better place than it was in 1910, and it can't all be credited to the roaring 20s. (I mean, you can def argue that there's a relationship between these events, but it wasn't a given trajectory either. )
I think it's quite likely that the west will experience more suffering than it has experienced in a generation as a direct consequence of corona and the following economic downswing, but this isn't our existential crisis.
On March 28 2020 15:49 RiKD wrote:
Not all of Bill Gates money in the Bill and Melinda Gates fund goes to "charity." A lot of it goes to investments including large investments in McDonalds as well as Monsanto, Cargill, and other harrowing investments. They are all interrelated. He is basically wagering on agribusiness and subsidies and rigging the bet in his favor. (Water) and food is the most important need on this planet and he is fucking it all up.
We learn in the "Groundwork for the Metaphysics of Morals" by Kant that the motive is what matters.
I actually think Bill Gates motive is generally in the right place he is just misguided by who he is and where he came from.
Musk and Ma I believe are doing it for branding more than anything else. Same with any play that Besos makes.
Bill Gates is misguided, despise the fact he predicted this pandemic and tried to wark everybody, Musk is building respirators and Ma is sending millions of masks for branding reasons.... such evil guys
On the other hand the state, which actually takes money from people to solve these problems has done nothing but being incompetent and negligent and taking measures too late, not closing borders encouraging people to go out until it exploed in ther faces.
Yeah fuck philatrophist who willingly give their money in efficient ways, lets take their money and give them to the mighty state... you are a moron.
On March 28 2020 16:09 RiKD wrote:
Agribusiness is not our way out of the climate crisis it only exacerbates the problem. Heirloom seeds and seed savers are our saviors. Intelligent organic farming. Not shipping watermelons from across the world. Not overproducing avocados. All of our problems are a product of capitalism. Bill Gates is a product of capitalism. We certainly don't need growth in McDonalds. Bill Gates does. How do you guys think he "gives" all this money away and ends up richer????????????????????????????
yeah its capitalism fault that another pandemic is formed in the biggest communist country in the world that is where 80% of the rest of the pandemics have begun.
On March 29 2020 00:56 Liquid`Drone wrote:
ww1 was a complete disaster, spanish flu came on top of that, then great depression happened which was a complete disaster, then ww2 which was absurdly terrible.
Still in 1950 the world was a much better place than it was in 1910, and it can't all be credited to the roaring 20s. (I mean, you can def argue that there's a relationship between these events, but it wasn't a given trajectory either. )
I think it's quite likely that the west will experience more suffering than it has experienced in a generation as a direct consequence of corona and the following economic downswing, but this isn't our existential crisis.
THIS!
LOL who would cite the spanish flu as a story of quick recovery? it led to the biggest depression in history and eventually another world war.
On March 28 2020 15:49 RiKD wrote:
Not all of Bill Gates money in the Bill and Melinda Gates fund goes to "charity." A lot of it goes to investments including large investments in McDonalds as well as Monsanto, Cargill, and other harrowing investments. They are all interrelated. He is basically wagering on agribusiness and subsidies and rigging the bet in his favor. (Water) and food is the most important need on this planet and he is fucking it all up.
We learn in the "Groundwork for the Metaphysics of Morals" by Kant that the motive is what matters.
I actually think Bill Gates motive is generally in the right place he is just misguided by who he is and where he came from.
Musk and Ma I believe are doing it for branding more than anything else. Same with any play that Besos makes.
Bill Gates is misguided, despise the fact he predicted this pandemic and tried to wark everybody, Musk is building respirators and Ma is sending millions of masks for branding reasons.... such evil guys
On the other hand the state, which actually takes money from people to solve these problems has done nothing but being incompetent and negligent and taking measures too late, not closing borders encouraging people to go out until it exploed in ther faces.
Yeah fuck philatrophist who willingly give their money in efficient ways, lets take their money and give them to the mighty state... you are a moron.
Gates wasn't misguided in that regard. Very sharp. Just as he is very sharp when it came to Microsoft business. This does not mean he is infallible and knows everything in every facet of this Earth. Musk and Ma are not evil. Regardless it is very dangerous to idolize billionaires or anyone.
I am not a fan of the state. USA govt. has fucked this up including giving bailouts to Buffet and Gates and Musk who have been reaping the benefits of the state their entire careers.
I am taking less issue with Musk and Ma than I am with Gates. Gates invests in McDonalds ffs. Do you believe that growth in McDonalds, Monsanto, Cargill, USA airlines, et al is good for this Earth?
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Stroggoz New Zealand. Mar 29 2020 03:21. Posts 5296
I'd cite it as a quick recovery. I don't see how it led to the great depression, which happened 10 years after the spanish flu. It obv had long term effects on people that suffered from it though.
Yeah we can all agree that states were completely incompetent on this, or at least the non east asian ones. The rich have shaped the state towards their own interests. The problem is Gates share's class values with others that belog to his class.
One of 3 non decent human beings on a site of 5 people with between 2-3 decent human beings
On March 28 2020 16:09 RiKD wrote:
Agribusiness is not our way out of the climate crisis it only exacerbates the problem. Heirloom seeds and seed savers are our saviors. Intelligent organic farming. Not shipping watermelons from across the world. Not overproducing avocados. All of our problems are a product of capitalism. Bill Gates is a product of capitalism. We certainly don't need growth in McDonalds. Bill Gates does. How do you guys think he "gives" all this money away and ends up richer????????????????????????????
yeah its capitalism fault that another pandemic is formed in the biggest communist country in the world that is where 80% of the rest of the pandemics have begun.
China is not communist. It is some warped, shanzhai abomination of authoritarian communism.
You are right in the fact that I mispoke. Coronavirus is not capitalism's fault.
You can't disentangle the plutocracy and late capitalism though. Meaning you can't just take examples of Bill Gates doing something good and using that as an argument for the free market/right libertarianism. Just as you can't take Mao's shanzhai marxism as an example and "win" the game in one move like that.
There are things that these guys are doing that are beyond our comprehension. Really. How do these guys "give" so much money away and end up with more of it? And as I said I am just some manipulated, exploited, beaten down cow just trying to find some grass to eat and roam around for a little bit. I'm sick of being manipulated, exploited, and beaten down and the same goes for my brothers and sisters and the brothers and sisters that don't even realize they are a cow but are suffering all the same.
On March 29 2020 02:06 RiKD wrote:
Gates wasn't misguided in that regard. Very sharp. Just as he is very sharp when it came to Microsoft business. This does not mean he is infallible and knows everything in every facet of this Earth. Musk and Ma are not evil. Regardless it is very dangerous to idolize billionaires or anyone.
I am not a fan of the state. USA govt. has fucked this up including giving bailouts to Buffet and Gates and Musk who have been reaping the benefits of the state their entire careers.
I am taking less issue with Musk and Ma than I am with Gates. Gates invests in McDonalds ffs. Do you believe that growth in McDonalds, Monsanto, Cargill, USA airlines, et al is good for this Earth?
I dont Idiolize billionares, you as most leftists villanize them, Bill Gates bent every rule in the book to build his monopoly and should have gone to jail, Musk plays the market and subsidies in dirty ways, he called this pandemic an exageration in a pathetic attempt to protect Tesla's stock price, and Ma I dont know but he is Chine so he is probably worse, I see them with ther flaws and qualities, but leftists complain billionares dont do anything I cited mas production of respirators, millions of masks, leading the world charge against pandemics and you are like "oh they do it for branding".
As I said he works with GMO companies to develop drough resistant crops, its a pathetic way to view things by guilt of association, I dont know about his investments with McDonalds, but if having money in McDonalds is enough for you to qualify somebody as evil then there isn much to discuss.
Yeah we can all agree that states were completely incompetent on this, or at least the non east asian ones. The rich have shaped the state towards their own interests. The problem is Gates share's class values with others that belog to his class.
Yes the states were incompetent, we agree, and yes its shaped by self interest, and that is precisely the reason why you don't create the most powerful of tools for the cynic to take over.
On March 29 2020 02:36 RiKD wrote:
China is not communist. It is some warped, shanzhai abomination of authoritarian communism.
You are right in the fact that I mispoke. Coronavirus is not capitalism's fault.
You can't disentangle the plutocracy and late capitalism though. Meaning you can't just take examples of Bill Gates doing something good and using that as an argument for the free market/right libertarianism. Just as you can't take Mao's shanzhai marxism as an example and "win" the game in one move like that.
There are things that these guys are doing that are beyond our comprehension. Really. How do these guys "give" so much money away and end up with more of it? And as I said I am just some manipulated, exploited, beaten down cow just trying to find some grass to eat and roam around for a little bit. I'm sick of being manipulated, exploited, and beaten down and the same goes for my brothers and sisters and the brothers and sisters that don't even realize they are a cow but are suffering all the same.
If China isn't communist then the US isn't capitalist.
Gates et al aren't great examples of libertarianism, they are the product of corporativism, they are great examples of how unneccesary these suppoused leaders are, private entities reacted far better than the state and centralized bureaocrats, the fucking WHO said the virus wasn't contagious human to human, then it said countries shouldnt restrict travel from China, and to this date insist that the public does not use masks, the CDC blocked early testing in the US for a long time, now they blocked home testing forcing people into testing centers increasing risk of infection, M3 manufactured 30 million n95 masks but the FDA currently blocked them due to regulation and are sitting in warehouses as people die
This bureacratic ineptitude will cost the lives of hundreds of thousands if not millions just because of this, I'll take my chances with auto-manufacters building ventilators tech developing apps that allow local quarentines, food services building delivery infrastructure etc.
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Stroggoz New Zealand. Mar 29 2020 09:06. Posts 5296
I'm one of the few that does not think america is capitalist nor china is commmunist .
capitalism itself is an inconsistent definition. It supposes that there is private ownership over production and free markets. As society has existed, capitalism has not really ever taken place in America because those that privately own the means of production have concentrated their capital and political power to undermine free markets, and enrich themselves through state protections. Corporations themselves are not something that would exist in a capitalist society, since they are legal entities the state has granted bodies of people, with limited liability, and other rights, like unlimited use of money in elections. That's a strong example of interventionism.
So, imo America is not really a capitalist society-except in some small way. China is closer to what marx called capitalism than America, given it's sweat shop system, enclosure of the commons and migration of peasantry to the cities. That is something marx would easily recognize if he was around today but it would take some adjustment for him to understand America's system.
On a side note about elon's subsidies:
There should honestly be massive state intervention for a green revolution, solar panels were developed in bell labs, a subsidiary of ATandT, but they never took off for a long time because the state never put enough research into them and the only buyers of solar panels were NASA. Chinese banks have been focused on development while american banks have been focused on profit, that's why China is leading the way in solar, wind, and electric vehciles even though it was disadvantaged in that race. So im not against subsidies but they should be on strict conditions, it's a shit system that has the public pay for subsidies while private gain is accumulated, which is what happens in elon musks case.
Like i keep saying, society is complex. You don't wanna follow some philosophers rules as a guide to ethics (like kant), and you don't want to follow the free market rules. Economists have exposed many problems with markets (externalities, information asymetry, and lack of choice-you dont get public goods), are three examples. I'm personally in favour of market-socialism, a socialist society that does have markets, but they are highly restricted.
Bill gates is not a corporatist lol. That word is highly misleading, corporatism as i understand it is a socialist system based on mutual coop's, like guild socialism and syndacalism. It can also mean strong labour unions.
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On March 29 2020 00:56 Liquid`Drone wrote:
ww1 was a complete disaster, spanish flu came on top of that, then great depression happened which was a complete disaster, then ww2 which was absurdly terrible.
Still in 1950 the world was a much better place than it was in 1910, and it can't all be credited to the roaring 20s. (I mean, you can def argue that there's a relationship between these events, but it wasn't a given trajectory either. )
I think it's quite likely that the west will experience more suffering than it has experienced in a generation as a direct consequence of corona and the following economic downswing, but this isn't our existential crisis.
THIS!
LOL who would cite the spanish flu as a story of quick recovery? it led to the biggest depression in history and eventually another world war.
yes the spanish flu led to the great depression and WW2 directly. thats what all historians agree upon.
LOL!
how about you check your facts before talking nonsense?
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Liquid`Drone Norway. Mar 29 2020 13:57. Posts 3093
just to be clear I wasn't trying to argue that the spanish flu led to great depression or ww2.
I meant that despite the world experiencing a whole lot of extremely shitty events during a 30 year timespan, 4 shitty events where each are several magnitudes worse than anything we have experienced in western countries for the past 30 years, somehow, society actually, overall, progressed during that period of time. That's not to undercut the amount of suffering it led to - it's merely meant to indicate that as bad as this coronabusiness is, and I believe it to be very bad, is not something that threatens to destroy western civilization in the way the fall of the roman empire did.
Then I did say that there's a relationship between these events, but the established correlation is more ww1 -> treaty of versailles - > germany feels unfairly treated - > great depression happens and hurts germany a lot (not uniquely) - > demagogue rises and exploits the combination of treaty of versailles and great depression as part of his platform to attain power, blame everybody else, 'fix the economy', and eventually start ww2. (this is an obvious simplification of the timeline. )
The relationship with spanish flu is more that ww1 made it worse, and it made countries downplay its significance / not report on it / worsened the spread. (The reason why it's called spanish flu is that spain was neutral in ww1, and thus they were one of very few countries to actually report on the virus, even though it most likely originated in the US and did not affect spain worse than other countries. ) Not to say that it can't have had some influence on the great depression in some way, but there's no established causality there.
lol POKER
Last edit: 29/03/2020 13:59
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Stroggoz New Zealand. Mar 29 2020 14:26. Posts 5296
Dam, hope your not going steven pinker on me.
There is a lot of revisionist history on the great depression, beleive it or not the main historian on the great depression and its causes is...Ben Bernanke. He did is Phd on the causes of it, and according to some he completely misunderstood it, not understanding it was a result of too much private debt leading to debt deflation, (which was what irving fischer the economist at the time said.) Instead he blamed it on monetary policy. some other economists have blamed it on tarriffs from the trade war at the time, but that doesnt add up.
On March 29 2020 12:57 Liquid`Drone wrote:
just to be clear I wasn't trying to argue that the spanish flu led to great depression or ww2.
I meant that despite the world experiencing a whole lot of extremely shitty events during a 30 year timespan, 4 shitty events where each are several magnitudes worse than anything we have experienced in western countries for the past 30 years, somehow, society actually, overall, progressed during that period of time. That's not to undercut the amount of suffering it led to - it's merely meant to indicate that as bad as this coronabusiness is, and I believe it to be very bad, is not something that threatens to destroy western civilization in the way the fall of the roman empire did.
Then I did say that there's a relationship between these events, but the established correlation is more ww1 -> treaty of versailles - > germany feels unfairly treated - > great depression happens and hurts germany a lot (not uniquely) - > demagogue rises and exploits the combination of treaty of versailles and great depression as part of his platform to attain power, blame everybody else, 'fix the economy', and eventually start ww2. (this is an obvious simplification of the timeline. )
The relationship with spanish flu is more that ww1 made it worse, and it made countries downplay its significance / not report on it / worsened the spread. (The reason why it's called spanish flu is that spain was neutral in ww1, and thus they were one of very few countries to actually report on the virus, even though it most likely originated in the US and did not affect spain worse than other countries. ) Not to say that it can't have had some influence on the great depression in some way, but there's no established causality there.
On March 29 2020 02:06 RiKD wrote:
Gates wasn't misguided in that regard. Very sharp. Just as he is very sharp when it came to Microsoft business. This does not mean he is infallible and knows everything in every facet of this Earth. Musk and Ma are not evil. Regardless it is very dangerous to idolize billionaires or anyone.
I am not a fan of the state. USA govt. has fucked this up including giving bailouts to Buffet and Gates and Musk who have been reaping the benefits of the state their entire careers.
I am taking less issue with Musk and Ma than I am with Gates. Gates invests in McDonalds ffs. Do you believe that growth in McDonalds, Monsanto, Cargill, USA airlines, et al is good for this Earth?
I dont Idiolize billionares, you as most leftists villanize them, Bill Gates bent every rule in the book to build his monopoly and should have gone to jail, Musk plays the market and subsidies in dirty ways, he called this pandemic an exageration in a pathetic attempt to protect Tesla's stock price, and Ma I dont know but he is Chine so he is probably worse, I see them with ther flaws and qualities, but leftists complain billionares dont do anything I cited mas production of respirators, millions of masks, leading the world charge against pandemics and you are like "oh they do it for branding".
As I said he works with GMO companies to develop drough resistant crops, its a pathetic way to view things by guilt of association, I dont know about his investments with McDonalds, but if having money in McDonalds is enough for you to qualify somebody as evil then there isn much to discuss.
I villainize them, true. For good reasons. Perhaps I shouldn't assume they are doing it for branding. It's just a wager based on evidence of their past actions.
My contention is that Gates should focus on the cause behind the droughts ie climate catastrophe in a meaningful way. It's what I mean in the discord where I said "covid-19 is the biggest issue of HIS life." Climate catastrophe is the biggest issue for human as a species and it probably won't effect Bill Gates much. I wonder why he doesn't talk about climate change and proper organic farming. Maybe he has. Maybe a complete re-haul of our agricultural practices we can't make enough food and we all end up dead (well the poor end up dead). It's more likely that McDonalds, Monsanto, Cargill lose profit and in turn so does Bill Gates. But that's what I would talk about if I ever had the chance to have a conversation with him.
I also don't think anyone is evil. If someone actually is classified as evil it is a product of their environment (or some sort of brain tumor).
On March 29 2020 02:36 RiKD wrote:
China is not communist. It is some warped, shanzhai abomination of authoritarian communism.
You are right in the fact that I mispoke. Coronavirus is not capitalism's fault.
You can't disentangle the plutocracy and late capitalism though. Meaning you can't just take examples of Bill Gates doing something good and using that as an argument for the free market/right libertarianism. Just as you can't take Mao's shanzhai marxism as an example and "win" the game in one move like that.
There are things that these guys are doing that are beyond our comprehension. Really. How do these guys "give" so much money away and end up with more of it? And as I said I am just some manipulated, exploited, beaten down cow just trying to find some grass to eat and roam around for a little bit. I'm sick of being manipulated, exploited, and beaten down and the same goes for my brothers and sisters and the brothers and sisters that don't even realize they are a cow but are suffering all the same.
If China isn't communist then the US isn't capitalist.
Gates et al aren't great examples of libertarianism, they are the product of corporativism, they are great examples of how unneccesary these suppoused leaders are, private entities reacted far better than the state and centralized bureaocrats, the fucking WHO said the virus wasn't contagious human to human, then it said countries shouldnt restrict travel from China, and to this date insist that the public does not use masks, the CDC blocked early testing in the US for a long time, now they blocked home testing forcing people into testing centers increasing risk of infection, M3 manufactured 30 million n95 masks but the FDA currently blocked them due to regulation and are sitting in warehouses as people die
This bureacratic ineptitude will cost the lives of hundreds of thousands if not millions just because of this, I'll take my chances with auto-manufacters building ventilators tech developing apps that allow local quarentines, food services building delivery infrastructure etc.
I don't believe the US is capitalist either. Terms like "late capitalism," "neoliberal capitalism," "oligarchy," "plutocracy," et al seem to fit better.
I agree with you on the bureaucracies fucking up in the West. They didn't seem to fuck up in the East though. Why is that?
Also, who says there can't be entrepreneurship outside of "capitalism" or right libertarianism?
On March 29 2020 08:06 Stroggoz wrote:
On a side note about elon's subsidies:
There should honestly be massive state intervention for a green revolution, solar panels were developed in bell labs, a subsidiary of ATandT, but they never took off for a long time because the state never put enough research into them and the only buyers of solar panels were NASA. Chinese banks have been focused on development while american banks have been focused on profit, that's why China is leading the way in solar, wind, and electric vehciles even though it was disadvantaged in that race. So im not against subsidies but they should be on strict conditions, it's a shit system that has the public pay for subsidies while private gain is accumulated, which is what happens in elon musks case.
Exactly. But how are we ever going to get strict subsidies that don't inordinately benefit the rich in today's system(s)? Obviously, Musk should benefit for his work but it shouldn't be to the tune of billions in hoarded capital off of the people's backs.
Like i keep saying, society is complex. You don't wanna follow some philosophers rules as a guide to ethics (like kant), and you don't want to follow the free market rules. Economists have exposed many problems with markets (externalities, information asymetry, and lack of choice-you dont get public goods), are three examples. I'm personally in favour of market-socialism, a socialist society that does have markets, but they are highly restricted.
Kant's Categorical Imperative is simply one test. A thought experiment which Rawls expanded upon. I don't walk around thinking what would Kant do? There is no what would Rawls do bracelet on my arm but I think I am likely a better person for learning about these things and thinking about these things. I also have a major boner for fairness and justice though. It's why I can never be full moral skeptic even if that's what my brain pangs for.
Who restricts this market-socialism you speak of?
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Stroggoz New Zealand. Mar 29 2020 18:06. Posts 5296
There's no reason subsidies can't come with conditions attatched. It is public money, after all. So if its the populations tax money they should have a say on how it is spent. That's how a tax system would work in a democratic society. But since our society is completely ideological in it's view that private capital is more efficient than the government at everything, and that taxes are theft, that presupposes that the government shouldn't tell businesses what to do. So that ideology has to be exposed to everyone, that we really don't live in a society where capitalists make it on their own, and that they receive enourmous benefits from the public sector and because of this the public should get a return on that investment.
You can't have free markets so long as advertisors exist, so you could perhaps picture a capitalist society that doesn't have advertising, or it could be a socialist one. Since im in favour of democracy (worker control), i think it should be a socialist one. As for highly restricting markets, that's just common sense. anyone who pays attention to the many market failures has to accept this. It could be things like feed in tarrifs for agroecology, or carbon tax. There are a lot of ideas out there. But i think markets can still play a role since they are an efficient way for making transactions.
One of 3 non decent human beings on a site of 5 people with between 2-3 decent human beings
I really like your ideas Stroggoz it just seems impossible. As if human extinction is more likely than say getting rid of advertising, the people getting a roi on their investments, or there being worker controlled democracy.
I'll fight for it though. It seems more reasonable than straight up anarcho-communism. Although I still feel like small communities could operate under an ancomm system rather well.
I'm rather calm and relaxed but am just in an overwhelmed the systems in the world suck and I don't see how they will change mood.
sigh... I dont mean they caused it directly, to pinpoint a sole cause for events in a absurdly complex system like society is silly, the assasination of Franz Ferdinand as the cause of WW2 is the text-book answer but it is in reality a silly answer.
The spanish flu killed mostly American and European young men, unlike COVID it created an auto-immune response, so the strongest the immune sistem the deadlier, given their age and origin these were the people who were going to build the early XX century and that drastically shifted and hard times followed. I wouldn't characterize the early XX as a fast recovery, it seemed that it was only after WW2 that the world took a different nicer turn.
Doesn't COVID kind of create an auto-immune response too, since it starts destroying the good parts of your lungs together with the bad and hope is the virus disappears before your lungs are fucked enough to kill you?
On March 30 2020 17:45 Spitfiree wrote:
Doesn't COVID kind of create an auto-immune response too, since it starts destroying the good parts of your lungs together with the bad and hope is the virus disappears before your lungs are fucked enough to kill you?
No, the spanish flu caused something cytokine storms, its a deadly overreaction of the immune system, cytokines are basically the immune cells that give orders to the cells that actually attack the virus, so basically they go crazy, so people with strong immune systems die more than weak ones, that is why young men were the main dead demographic of the spanish flu, just like with autoimmune diseases, they are harsher on young men, women's immune sistem is less aggressive otherwise they would run the risk of their sistem detecting the fetus as a foreign object and it would destroy it.
The immune system destroys healthy cells too in every disease, collateral damage is normal afaik the way most ppl die from COVID is actually simple bacterial pneumonia, the virus depletes the immune sistem and then all the wounded tissue in the lungs gets infected and the body doesn't have anything left to fight the bacterial spread and then die.
On March 30 2020 07:06 Baalim wrote:
sigh... I dont mean they caused it directly, to pinpoint a sole cause for events in a absurdly complex system like society is silly, the assasination of Franz Ferdinand as the cause of WW2 is the text-book answer but it is in reality a silly answer.
anecdotal but here doctors have been defying dep of health bureaucracies and treating patients with varying formulations of treatments for moderate to severe cases with extremely great results. the only common thing i keep hearing is hydroxychloroquine. in my area there are lots of chatter among friends linked directly to doctors using the same and also getting fantastic results. sometimes there's zinc, sometimes there's no azithromycin, sometimes massive vit c is involved.
it's a "trump" treatment so i dont expect government to launch it, since Xi has a stranglehold on our government atm. Doctors dgaf anymore so they just made a call or less the option is to let people get intubated and be dead in 2 days. note that azithromycin can have serious side effects like liver damage, so some just don't use that alongside hyroxychloroquine. i dunno im not a doctor lol
azithromicyn is just an antibotic, sideeffects are negible same wtih hydroxicloroquine, the side effects are being blown our of proportion to avoid people self medicating
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blackjacki2 United States. Apr 04 2020 02:29. Posts 2581
CDC now recommending cloth masks for the general public. Tells us what we already knew: the whole "don't wear a mask" had nothing to do with preventing transmission of disease and everything to do with trying to reserve masks for frontline workers.
while at the same time the FDA blocked KN95 which is identical to the regular n95 for 3 months, so 3M sat with 30 millon masks that would cover all medical workers in the US in their warehouses.
Worry not people, these bureaucrats and their regulations are keeping you safe from unregulated masks!
Dunno if everyone already knew this but news to me. This is a theory that "BCG vaccination policy" by country has a lot of predictive power / correlation to how much damage a country took off covid-19
so for example, Japan and Brazil have been doing BCG vaccinations forever and they are doing very well
Italy has never done BCG vaccination and they are doing very poorly
They did a lot of statistical analysis and seems pretty legitimate. I'm generally very skeptical on statistical analysis but this seems like it could be at least partially true. Even if they cherry picked, confirmation biased and cognitive dissonance'd their way to this conclusion it might still be a real variable because the data fits their hypothesis really strongly.
They also showed exactly their data sources so you could try to reproduce their results freely which makes it slightly more credible.
Germany is doing a 200IQ move and mix the probes of many patients in a single test, if the test is negative then they're all negative, if test is positive they call the people and test them individually.
On April 04 2020 01:26 Baalim wrote:
azithromicyn is just an antibotic, sideeffects are negible same wtih hydroxicloroquine, the side effects are being blown our of proportion to avoid people self medicating
seems like azith is really strong Baal, we have zithromax here where Im from and although nobody gets liver damage for simply taking it, it's pretty strong and my wife and mom have taken it before and tell me so. I'm not familiar with hydroxychloroquine being sold here since Malaria isn't much of a problem here (only dengue), some people I know have lupus but havent talked to them about it. Thing is hydroxy has been taken even as a precautionary measure for decades now, seems pretty fucking safe. With zithro my guess is it can fuck up someone whos already battling for their lives and are already compromised and in the later stages Im really not sure. Anyway there are diff concoctions in how to use it and almost all have been successful considering it wasn't even designed to cure covid.
Fatal side effects of hydroxy is an absolute lie for the vast majority though, that's something I'm kinda sure of from what I've heard, read. I can't understand people who are looking for vaccines or 100% clinically tested, peer-reviewed shit when this thing is just 3 months old and lots of people are dying needlessly. It's a judgement call doctors are starting to make, kinda defying their China-influenced, bureaucrats instructions.
Last edit: 05/04/2020 00:00
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blackjacki2 United States. Apr 05 2020 00:58. Posts 2581
zithromax is a brand name for azithromycin and it is commonly over-prescribed for viral illnesses by primary care doctors to placate whiny adults with no coping skills that can't handle having a viral illness
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blackjacki2 United States. Apr 05 2020 01:08. Posts 2581
On April 04 2020 15:24 Spitfiree wrote:
Germany is doing a 200IQ move and mix the probes of many patients in a single test, if the test is negative then they're all negative, if test is positive they call the people and test them individually.
If the pooled test is positive then they re-test the reserved samples individually. Tracking people down to double-test them and potentially exposing workers to a known COVID patient doesn't make sense.
On April 04 2020 15:24 Spitfiree wrote:
Germany is doing a 200IQ move and mix the probes of many patients in a single test, if the test is negative then they're all negative, if test is positive they call the people and test them individually.
If the pooled test is positive then they re-test the reserved samples individually. Tracking people down to double-test them and potentially exposing workers to a known COVID patient doesn't make sense.
Makes sense, I was assuming they'd only have a single probe per person
Dunno if everyone already knew this but news to me. This is a theory that "BCG vaccination policy" by country has a lot of predictive power / correlation to how much damage a country took off covid-19
so for example, Japan and Brazil have been doing BCG vaccinations forever and they are doing very well
Italy has never done BCG vaccination and they are doing very poorly
They did a lot of statistical analysis and seems pretty legitimate. I'm generally very skeptical on statistical analysis but this seems like it could be at least partially true. Even if they cherry picked, confirmation biased and cognitive dissonance'd their way to this conclusion it might still be a real variable because the data fits their hypothesis really strongly.
They also showed exactly their data sources so you could try to reproduce their results freely which makes it slightly more credible.
Brazil is growing exponentially and it will get very ugly soon.
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YoMeR United States. Apr 05 2020 06:11. Posts 12435
Ugh the blatant lying by governments for months was tilting me.
Stay safe all
eZ Life.
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Santafairy Korea (South). Apr 05 2020 07:06. Posts 2225
yeah I was suspicious of Brazil doing "very well"
It seems to be not very profitable in the long run to play those kind of hands. - Gus Hansen
BCG is an automatic vaccination here in the philippines for middle upper class ppl since it's a bit costly. Nah we still dyin over here and lotsa infections and PUI PUM cases in that segmet of the populace.
On April 04 2020 23:58 blackjacki2 wrote:
zithromax is a brand name for azithromycin and it is commonly over-prescribed for viral illnesses by primary care doctors to placate whiny adults with no coping skills that can't handle having a viral illness
yes it is a very potent anti-viral which makes it really one of the stronger, more prescribed antibiotics for special cases. People even get high fever at times taking that stuff, it's been around for ages here though, I haven't heard of anybody dying from it. Not sure if a patient is at the severe covid stages though
blackjacki2 United States. Apr 08 2020 06:08. Posts 2581
Where'd all the conspiracy theorists on this site go? This site used to be flooded with them. Shouldn't they be here telling us how this is all being caused by 5G? I hope they didn't all die from drinking fish tank cleaner.
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Stroggoz New Zealand. Apr 08 2020 06:26. Posts 5296
tutz still posts here occasionally^^
One of 3 non decent human beings on a site of 5 people with between 2-3 decent human beings
On April 08 2020 05:08 blackjacki2 wrote:
Where'd all the conspiracy theorists on this site go? This site used to be flooded with them. Shouldn't they be here telling us how this is all being caused by 5G? I hope they didn't all die from drinking fish tank cleaner.
Do people who believe its more likely Epstein didn't kill himself than he did count as conspiracy theorist?
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Stroggoz New Zealand. Apr 08 2020 09:07. Posts 5296
yes imo, there are plenty of conspiracy theories that make sense. It would be a sensible conspiracy theory that the mexican president was in league with drug cartels if he didn't take a photo of it. I don't like changing the definition based on one groups semantic interpretation of the term. (that a conspiracy=crazy theories).
Adam Smith simply said a conspiracy was what happened when two businessmen meet in private. Writing up the rules of TTIP or TPP was a conspiracy and the rules not available to the public but people dont call it a conspiracy because it doesn't involve gay frogs, chemtrails or lizardmen. Actually an anthropologist once defined religion as beleiving in crazy things. Not saying i agree with that definition, but it seems to share a lot with the modern day semantic interpretation of what a conspiracy is.
One of 3 non decent human beings on a site of 5 people with between 2-3 decent human beings
Only bothered going through first video, even if that is true it doesn't mean much since those edge cases cant really skew the numbers meaningfully, even though its supposed to leave you with the impression it would
Last edit: 09/04/2020 22:55
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blackjacki2 United States. Apr 09 2020 23:08. Posts 2581
I think every conspiracy about Bill Gates stems from that one statement he says about reducing the population by 10 or 15% with vaccines, healthcare, and reproductive services. It's really a simple concept that as you decrease infant mortality people have fewer children because they feel safer about "putting all their eggs in on basket" if that one basket is less likely to die. Thus the "future" population will decrease by 10-15% vs current projections, not the present population. Unfortunately such a simple concept is impossible to grasp for the idiot sector of the internet so now we have to hear about Bill Gates wanting to sterilize people with vaccines every day.
Actually fuck this site lol it's easier to fool people than convince them they have been fooled goodbye ban me baal you greasy bastard
Rear naked woke
Last edit: 09/04/2020 23:42
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PuertoRican United States. Apr 09 2020 23:47. Posts 13044
On April 09 2020 22:33 Mortensen8 wrote:
Actually fuck this site lol it's easier to fool people than convince them they have been fooled goodbye ban me baal you greasy bastard
Stop being a cry baby and post whatever you want in this thread, as long as it stays on topic.
We went from corona to Bill Gates wants you sterile, to fluoride in the water makes you dumb. What a rollercoaster damn
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blackjacki2 United States. Apr 10 2020 00:37. Posts 2581
Mortensen, come back. We are bored as fuck while stuck in our homes from these lockdowns. Don't let these sheeple get you down. You don't want people thinking you'll only engage with other like-minded individuals in the echo chambers of conspiracy blogs and forums, do you?
blackjacki2 United States. Apr 10 2020 13:14. Posts 2581
Not much of a conspiracy video. Of course the official counts are not 100% accurate. That's impossible to do. I'm not sure what his point is though? If you see a thousand corpses being hauled off does it really matter if a couple were actually killed by pneumonia? I also completely agree with him about preventing people from hiking and doing other activities outdoors in the middle of nowhere. We've been on shelter-in-place here in the Bay Area for over a month and I'm still free to travel wherever and go on a walk whenever I want, it would suck if you can't do that where you are. What country are you in that they passed laws about mandatory vaccines?
blackjacki2 United States. Apr 10 2020 23:14. Posts 2581
Care to give your own thoughts or TL;DR versions of what you are posting? I don't want to sit through an entire 40+ minute video of a guy contradicting himself every other minute.
You asked him to come back, he comes back, ' cAn YoU giVe mE TLDR'
Last edit: 11/04/2020 00:54
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NewbSaibot United States. Apr 11 2020 06:16. Posts 4943
I love how conspiracy videos always have this 1 guy who's figured everything out. We're not just talking maybe a couple of facts that took him years to research, but basically he's got the knowledgebase of an entire team of people, all by himself, and in only a few months time.
wow you guys are actually retarded this whole thing is like platos cave goodbye and stop watching news/hollywood you are obviously under mind control.
Rear naked woke
Last edit: 11/04/2020 11:33
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blackjacki2 United States. Apr 11 2020 13:06. Posts 2581
^That guy definitely does not sound like a conspiracy theorist. In fact some of what he says is stuff I have said myself and I definitely would not consider myself a conspiracy theorist. For example he says:
One situation was a very early experience during the pandemic. We have a cruise ship, Diamond Princess, where we had an outbreak of SARS-COV-2. So we had an infection rate close to 20% and among those who were infected as of now 1% has died. 1% is a figure that pertains to a population of mostly elderly people. The mean age of passengers and crew was 58 years old and the median was close to 65.
Here's a post of mine from TL from over a month ago.
The most compelling piece of data about this pandemic is the cruise ship that suffered an outbreak of the virus. In any other country we don't really know how many active cases there are. We only know the cases that they tested for. There could be many more that were never sick enough to go to the hospital or they did go to the hospital and it was presumed to be a flu or pneumonia so it wasn't tested for. However on the cruise ship all of the patients were monitored so we have a good idea of the total cases and the fatalities from those cases. So far I'm seeing it reported as 706 cases with 6 deaths. Less than 1%. I've never been on a cruise but my guess is the population would skew toward the elderly so it could be even better.
Someone pointed out to me that cruise ships also probably have fewer of the very elderly or elderly + comorbidities. Also it's completely disingenuous to try to calculate a mortality rate from the cruise ship and then extrapolate it to the general population. There are enough resources to treat 20% of a single cruise ship. There are not enough resources to treat 20% of the entire country. Anyone should be able to understand that the mortality rate will skyrocket if you have a collapse of the healthcare system. Right now healthcare workers are coming to New York from all over the country to risk their lives to save others (or more likely: to risk their lives to make $10,000/week for a few months)
The attempt at explaining why Italy was so hard hit was a good one, but now explain why Spain, Iran, New York are also so hard hit.
I think he makes a lot of good points. I personally think a lot of the lockdowns/shelter in place orders are too strict and should be loosened a bit. There should definitely be a lot more emphasis of the suffering/death that can come from wrecking the economy than there currently is.
Let the people who are too weak die this is natural. The solution is not global fascism we can't continue in this unsustainable way anyway the problem is that people are afraid to die.
Rear naked woke
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blackjacki2 United States. Apr 11 2020 14:00. Posts 2581
Kind of an easy opinion to have as a 31 year old facing a disease that kills 0.2% of your demographic
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PoorUser United States. Apr 11 2020 14:23. Posts 7471
On April 11 2020 12:06 blackjacki2 wrote:
I think he makes a lot of good points. I personally think a lot of the lockdowns/shelter in place orders are too strict and should be loosened a bit. There should definitely be a lot more emphasis of the suffering/death that can come from wrecking the economy than there currently is.
In a perfect society, the lockdown measures would be less strict indeed so that the herd immunity and scaling would go in a curve that is sustainable to each nation's healthcare system. We obviously don't live in a perfect society. Instead what would happen if the lockdown goes away is:
1) Get tons of people infected, who wont be able to work anyway - this has a potential insane snowballing effect since we still don't know enough about corona
2) Still go under a financial crisis, except with many more deaths
I still don't understand why don't countries follow South Korea's approach of huge amount of testing. It seems that if patients are taken care of at the very beginning the death rate is insignificant.
I think it was wise and way too late, but isolation / flatteningthecurve was clearly GTO. Now that it seems more likely the virus is not as deadly as we thought, we should lower the some of the measures but in a smart manner. There is something I posted yesterday on discord in 3 channels and never got an answer. Maybe someone here is willing to argue.
Repost: lets use yesterdays data for spain or italy based on https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/: we have spain with 153.222 tested / 15447 deaths = cfr 10% and italy with 143.626 with 18279 deaths = cfr 12,7%. Obviously both are likely around 1% cfr or so because real infections are 10-50x as high. But almost nobody is talking about the 85,610 open cases in spain and 96,877 in Italy .... there is some "lag" between people dying within 2-3 weeks and recovery being 2-8 weeks but if you look at the world data of closed cases it is usually around 101,502 (21%) deaths and 371,999 (79%) recovered. So all those open cases in Spain and Italy or anywhere else in the world will drastically increase CFR over time on top.
I posted it, because more and more people argue that the real cfr will be somewhere around 0.3-0.4%
which needs a lot of "positive" things to happen and positive thinking that is hard to backup in the data.
Also I've been tracking down death rate to closed cases including the lagging behind of recovery but don't really know what to think of the data, it's been at 21% for a while now so it means that recovery cases are catching up. The thing about real infections being x10-50 is just simple speculation at this time, we really do not know at all. We hope it is because the bigger the discrepancy the less fatal the virus is. 0.3%-0.4% seems just pure wishful thinking with the data we have ... 1 to 1.5% is much more reasonable.
China being pure pieces of shit is being a real issue here, cause we could've already had a good case study based on the situation there, except the good old american saying 'the only good communist is a dead one' seems to be true. I know the world's production is there, but I really hope the US and EU fucking destroy them with sanctions after this shit is done. Unfortunately, greed is good and that won't happen in a meaningful way
On April 11 2020 12:26 Mortensen8 wrote:
Let the people who are too weak die this is natural. The solution is not global fascism we can't continue in this unsustainable way anyway the problem is that people are afraid to die.
The combination of 'let the people who are too weak die' and following up with saying that the solution is not global fascism in the next sentence is really incredible.
Also CFR is Case Fatality Rate - so the amount of dead compared to the amount of confirmed cases. A lot of people have cited these figures as an indicator of the % of people who die from being infected with covid, but with current testing numbers it's really not valid because the ratio of infected to confirmed cases is also an unknown factor.
Jeah, the 21/79% is consistent for weeks now. Of course there is lag but it should mean that over time the number should drop a lot to 18/82 then 15/85 etc. but it didn't so far. I hear nobody talking about it. But the majority of cases is still open. If that ratio is stable for a while or doesn't drop extremely we have some problems.
Also keep in mind that some countries have many tests being done and they are nowhere near 1-1,5% yet. So we all assume that the deaths are counted correctly and that eventually the recovered will be 95% or so and deaths go down to 5% and then add some asymptomatic on top and we get to 0.3% (16,7x real infections globally then). But the more people are infected, the less it works that way anymore.
What am I missing because nobody argues that part and it is the most scary thing for the past weeks to me
[QUOTE]On April 12 2020 09:20 FiSheYe wrote:
Jeah, the 21/79% is consistent for weeks now. Of course there is lag but it should mean that over time the number should drop a lot to 18/82 then 15/85 etc. but it didn't so far. I hear nobody talking about it.
I was thinking the same thing however its an exponential growth with the death occurring around 5 times faster than the 'officia' recovery in most of the cases, thus I'd say keeping it stable across many weeks while still having an exponential growth is good
I mentioned the lag above as well Spitfiree but how can the death rate remain stable with exponential growth ? I mean I see your point in some ways but why is it stable at 21%? That seems like a weird coincidence that we have a lot more people dying quickly (increasing the numbers) but because more people come in, in general and recovered ones is smaller (because the numbers get bigger and recovered from 8 weeks ago is a smaller part of the overall numbers...). I mean it should still drop at some point, almost 2 Million people should do something to the numbers, compared to 1 Mio or 500k before.
Weirdly enough if you click on https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ and then on the graph of recovered/deaths it shows you that the numbers changed a lot past few weeks. I do remember it to be stable but maybe I am wrong? It seems like the deaths are increasing which would make sense with your explanation. Then eventually over time it should drop again once there is some form of slowing. That could be an explanation, I hope that is what we will see.
Good point tho, jump in with your thoughts if you want, nobody talked about that prior so I am intrigued
The way I see it would work something like this in practice:
Week 1 - 100 infected - 2 dead 0/2
Week 2 - 110 more infected - 3dead 0/4
Week 3 - 115 more infected - 4 dead 0/5
Week 4 - 120 more infected - 5 dead 0/8
Week 5 - 130 more infected - 98 recovered 6 dead 98/20 - 4.9% (28days needed for recovery officially I think)
Week 6 - 150 more infected - 107 recovered 8 dead - 205/28 - 7.3%
Week 7 - whatever infected - 111 recovered 10 dead - 316/38 - 8.3%
so the CFR will grow with exponential growth until It reaches a cap on top, not sure if it will correlate with the disease spread too. We haveto take into account that the cases in China are probably at least 10x higher with x10 higher deaths too
P.S. obviously my numbers are pretty random with no specific growth factor and based on them deaths should possibly be a bit less, either way the % will grow
Thank you for your work, that seems to be a possible explanation. So you assume based on the data discussed, that cfr will be a lot lower more towards a ballpark of say 2% added in the end ? I am just trying to play both sides of this problematic evaluation. Those that say 5-10% cfr and those that assume now 0.3% to find where both could be right and wrong. To me 0.3% seems implausible with the discussed recovery/deaths / open cases total in combination with the real infected/deaths and the unknown infections/unknown deaths / underreported for XYZ reasons.
As mentioned prior we started a discord (which is sometimes very active, sometimes very inactive). Feel free to join and elaborate a bit further https://discord.gg/DdstkPe
On April 11 2020 12:26 Mortensen8 wrote:
Let the people who are too weak die this is natural. The solution is not global fascism we can't continue in this unsustainable way anyway the problem is that people are afraid to die.
The combination of 'let the people who are too weak die' and following up with saying that the solution is not global fascism in the next sentence is really incredible.
LOL I thought the same thing, the irony went past through his head though.
Mortensen shut the fuck up, maybe you are cool with your parents dying, the rest of us are not.
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blackjacki2 United States. Apr 17 2020 07:31. Posts 2581
I think it's a little bit crazy that we are just carrying on with these lockdowns with absolutely no plan for an end-game. My hospital has been basically dead for weeks. My girlfriend and I have been doing fuck all. Her entire floor has closed down because we have so few admitted patients so her shifts have been getting cancelled. She has been getting paid to sit at home and watch Netflix. They still have me coming in but the Emergency room where I work has been vacant. Someone also set up a gofundme to buy food from local restaurants to send to the ERs and ICUs in the Bay Area. Every single shift we get about 40 individualized meals delivered to us. So I've been mostly sitting around at work, eating free food, and getting paid. I always think that if a conspiracy theorist came in they would lose their shit when they saw the entire staff of the emergency room sitting around, joking, talking about all the food in the break room, etc.
The reality is that many hospitals are ghost towns across the entire country outside of the hot spots like in NY, NJ, Chicago, Detroit, New Orleans, etc. So many healthcare workers across the country are out of work right now because as it turns out they are only needed in the few areas I mentioned above. Are we just kicking the can down the road and doing nothing so we don't become like New York? Then what? Wait for a vaccine which could take years?
On April 17 2020 06:31 blackjacki2 wrote:
I think it's a little bit crazy that we are just carrying on with these lockdowns with absolutely no plan for an end-game. My hospital has been basically dead for weeks. My girlfriend and I have been doing fuck all. Her entire floor has closed down because we have so few admitted patients so her shifts have been getting cancelled. She has been getting paid to sit at home and watch Netflix. They still have me coming in but the Emergency room where I work has been vacant. Someone also set up a gofundme to buy food from local restaurants to send to the ERs and ICUs in the Bay Area. Every single shift we get about 40 individualized meals delivered to us. So I've been mostly sitting around at work, eating free food, and getting paid. I always think that if a conspiracy theorist came in they would lose their shit when they saw the entire staff of the emergency room sitting around, joking, talking about all the food in the break room, etc.
The reality is that many hospitals are ghost towns across the entire country outside of the hot spots like in NY, NJ, Chicago, Detroit, New Orleans, etc. So many healthcare workers across the country are out of work right now because as it turns out they are only needed in the few areas I mentioned above. Are we just kicking the can down the road and doing nothing so we don't become like New York? Then what? Wait for a vaccine which could take years?
I'm going to sound like a broken record but thats what happens when you get a humongous centralized federal government,, slow inefficient blanket policy
On April 11 2020 12:26 Mortensen8 wrote:
Let the people who are too weak die this is natural. The solution is not global fascism we can't continue in this unsustainable way anyway the problem is that people are afraid to die.
Thats the most stupid thing I`ve ever read.
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PuertoRican United States. Apr 18 2020 07:27. Posts 13044
On April 17 2020 06:31 blackjacki2 wrote:
I think it's a little bit crazy that we are just carrying on with these lockdowns with absolutely no plan for an end-game. My hospital has been basically dead for weeks. My girlfriend and I have been doing fuck all. Her entire floor has closed down because we have so few admitted patients so her shifts have been getting cancelled. She has been getting paid to sit at home and watch Netflix. They still have me coming in but the Emergency room where I work has been vacant. Someone also set up a gofundme to buy food from local restaurants to send to the ERs and ICUs in the Bay Area. Every single shift we get about 40 individualized meals delivered to us. So I've been mostly sitting around at work, eating free food, and getting paid. I always think that if a conspiracy theorist came in they would lose their shit when they saw the entire staff of the emergency room sitting around, joking, talking about all the food in the break room, etc.
The reality is that many hospitals are ghost towns across the entire country outside of the hot spots like in NY, NJ, Chicago, Detroit, New Orleans, etc. So many healthcare workers across the country are out of work right now because as it turns out they are only needed in the few areas I mentioned above. Are we just kicking the can down the road and doing nothing so we don't become like New York? Then what? Wait for a vaccine which could take years?
On April 11 2020 12:26 Mortensen8 wrote:
Let the people who are too weak die this is natural. The solution is not global fascism we can't continue in this unsustainable way anyway the problem is that people are afraid to die.
Thats the most stupid thing I`ve ever read.
Ironically, Baal is outraged at these kinds of statements yet he advocates for the same thing in the end, he just uses obfuscating language like "the government is too big, its inefficient" which means: "let the for-profit corporations and Our Mighty Capitalist Overlords run society as much as possible please".
This hides the same social darwinistic ideology, where those who are the most useful to generate profits are the "strongest" and create the structures and the rules that further rewards them, while those who are the least useful to the generation of private profits live short lives filled with toil and suffering and might be left to die in their own puke and excrements on the streets or in for-profit prisons or factory farms. I much prefer Mortensen's candidness, and at least his views are not nearly as popular. When a worldview nearly as stupid and inhumane is at least 10 times more popular, it's effectively much worse.
A right to housing, food, clean water and air, any sort of dignified life -- nope, let's not pursue that. Capital is all that matters -- all needs to be privatized. Don't worry though, without the state in the way, the ultrarich will be philanthropic and eradicate poverty! Also everyone knows billionaires love disabled people who are useless to capital, so they'll definitely have a lot of charities running for those people and not let them die.
fuck I should just sell some of my Pokemon cards, if no one stakes that is what I will have to do - lostaccount
Last edit: 18/04/2020 08:47
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Santafairy Korea (South). Apr 18 2020 08:46. Posts 2225
How come there are conspiracy theorists but not conspiracy experimentalists
It seems to be not very profitable in the long run to play those kind of hands. - Gus Hansen
Relax lel poor wording on my part I mean we can't continue like this with overpopulation all these diseases are caused by overpopulation, pollution, poor nutrition and poor sanitation. My solution, not that it fucking matters is 1 child policy (until we get to sustainable numbers), return to living off the land and living in cooperation with nature with permaculture. Paganism is permaculture. We get to keep certain useful technology but not fucking cars and stupid shit I no more concrete jungle bs. I pretty much only think the internet as useful right now. Abrahamics, atheists, capitalists are what are causing this mess also fuck germ theory of disesase terrain theory is the truth not that anyone will even entertain the idea (it makes a lot of money).
Unfortunately we are stuck with this virus abrahamist germ theory philosophy of life and will have to go through the apocalypse before any change happens.
Yes, the 1 child policy in China definitely had effect and its not like there is like 100millions more males now meaning they are importing women from proxy states and increasing the crime rate for horrendous things like child and women trafficking, forcing them into sex workers and etc.
Yes, cars and vehicles are totally useless, Its not like 90% of the food you eat is being imported by those same fucking vehicles.
You're so driven by fear that your mind is completely fogged
Actually scratch everything I say because I change my mind constantly lol even the abrahamics I am probably just blinded by my literal interpretation of old testament it is not meant to be read like that, carry on...
Rear naked woke
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PuertoRican United States. Apr 22 2020 05:39. Posts 13044
I just finished watching the "Nevada reopening plan" on YouTube.
Nevada is essentially going to wait 3 weeks or so (probably) before they launch Phase 1 of the reopening plan. Once the plan launches, all bars will remain closed during Phase 1.
"Large venues (dining, movies, sporting, places of worship, gyms) can operate under strict physical distancing protocols." = UNDER REVIEW IN NEVADA = the rich people in charge of these businesses need to provide a recommendation on how to handle these places = UFC Apex is small and intimate enough to host events, but we won't likely see a UFC at it's regular venue of T-Mobile Arena until after all three phases are lifted.
To be clear, he didn't say when Phase 1 would start, and how long Phase 1 would last. He just said that they will keep going through each phase as long as the amount of COVID-19 cases continues to decrease. If it begins to increase during any of the phases, then they'll need to slow things down again.
Rekrul is a newb
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YoMeR United States. Apr 25 2020 18:45. Posts 12435
Reopening too soon....here we go main act part 2 incoming.
eZ Life.
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Santafairy Korea (South). Apr 25 2020 18:46. Posts 2225
Can potentially reopen partially if you bomb tests and masks a lot of the US is not dense
It seems to be not very profitable in the long run to play those kind of hands. - Gus Hansen
On April 11 2020 12:26 Mortensen8 wrote:
Let the people who are too weak die this is natural. The solution is not global fascism we can't continue in this unsustainable way anyway the problem is that people are afraid to die.
Thats the most stupid thing I`ve ever read.
Ironically, Baal is outraged at these kinds of statements yet he advocates for the same thing in the end, he just uses obfuscating language like "the government is too big, its inefficient" which means: "let the for-profit corporations and Our Mighty Capitalist Overlords run society as much as possible please".
This hides the same social darwinistic ideology, where those who are the most useful to generate profits are the "strongest" and create the structures and the rules that further rewards them, while those who are the least useful to the generation of private profits live short lives filled with toil and suffering and might be left to die in their own puke and excrements on the streets or in for-profit prisons or factory farms. I much prefer Mortensen's candidness, and at least his views are not nearly as popular. When a worldview nearly as stupid and inhumane is at least 10 times more popular, it's effectively much worse.
A right to housing, food, clean water and air, any sort of dignified life -- nope, let's not pursue that. Capital is all that matters -- all needs to be privatized. Don't worry though, without the state in the way, the ultrarich will be philanthropic and eradicate poverty! Also everyone knows billionaires love disabled people who are useless to capital, so they'll definitely have a lot of charities running for those people and not let them die.
Wrong.
States are inefficient and so are corporations, they only exist because they use the state, proof of this is the current bailouts to airlines, that is no free market, the state stealing peoples money to bailout megacorporations to "protect the workers" is on your tankie isle bud.
Boeing et al should fail, their investors should lose their money, their assets should be auctioned so that new fresh companies arise from the fertile ashes.
A right for housing, food, healthcare, entertainment, hookers and blow would be great... but these things dont fall from the sky, they require resources and effort, you aren't entitled to other's people work.
Its not a good time to be arguing against rich philantnropist... these people with less than 1% of the resources the states have have done sooooo much more, but yeah I'm sure the FDA, the WHO and the CDC... but yeah I suppose the Department of off and on-shore low yield fishing/mining and domestic marine protection are going to save you, not the brilliant minds that push the world forward like evil Elon Musk and Bill Gates it is the bureaucrats that will spread your social justice... according to each hability and to each needs, I'm sure this time millions won't starve to death again.
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Santafairy Korea (South). Apr 26 2020 18:52. Posts 2225
Or the government could protect and maintain established organizations that allow people to buy tickets around the world for 500 dollars and operate coach class at a loss instead of letting a random germ disproportionately blow up certain industries and destroy people's livelihoods because they were stupid enough to go to pilot school
This is airline's fault they should have invested more money in sars vaccines if they didn't want to go bankrupt
It seems to be not very profitable in the long run to play those kind of hands. - Gus Hansen
The only reason Boeing was saved is because it would help the US's national interest, it's not because its an " established organization" nor cause it " allows people to buy ticket around the world for 500$" ( which also sounds like a bullshit statement as if we'd have to credit an airplane manufacturer for something like that it would be Airbus)
The germ is already destroying the livelihoods of people as millions of people already lost their jobs, yet you don't see the government injecting billions into mid-class businesses, that would save many more people, do you?
Also if such injections are made they should either be loans or the government should be nationalizing the business. The first one would probably leave Boeing failing again in a few years, while the second is something that will start a civil war in the US
Last edit: 26/04/2020 21:48
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TimDawg United States. Apr 27 2020 11:10. Posts 10197
On April 25 2020 17:45 YoMeR wrote:
Reopening too soon....here we go main act part 2 incoming.
My state is reopening restaurants and retail stores tomorrow (at 50% capacity)
It feels very short sighted and dumb. I fear a likely 2nd wave will just make everything even worse than it currently is
online bob is actually a pretty smart person, not at all like the creepy fucker that sits in the sofa telling me he does nasty shit to me when im asleep - pinball
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Santafairy Korea (South). Apr 27 2020 19:26. Posts 2225
On April 26 2020 20:46 Spitfiree wrote:
The only reason Boeing was saved is because it would help the US's national interest, it's not because its an " established organization" nor cause it " allows people to buy ticket around the world for 500$" ( which also sounds like a bullshit statement as if we'd have to credit an airplane manufacturer for something like that it would be Airbus)
when someone starts doing this infantile nitpicky quoting you just know they're incapable of comprehending any thought that isn't their own (if applicable) but thanks for butting in
Okay got it it's okay to bail out Airbus and not Boeing because they're the half of the duopoly that I like
The point is not difficult at all if you can open your fucking head for one second
You can let shit like airlines die because bailing it out would cost the taxpayer but the consumer would absorb the cost anyway when they buy a 2 grand ticket from Phoenix airlines
The germ is already destroying the livelihoods of people as millions of people already lost their jobs, yet you don't see the government injecting billions into mid-class businesses, that would save many more people, do you?
Sure I do
Neither is exclusive please graduate elementary school
But okay you're right I agree government intervention is great because it helps millions of people. EXCEPT if the failing business is huge and the backbone of an entire sector because much occupy wall street
It seems to be not very profitable in the long run to play those kind of hands. - Gus Hansen
Im saying its retarded to bail out either company, but if based on your argument it still makes no sense to bail out Boeing, also sorry for literally quoting your entire statement but its apparently nitpicking. What a joke you are
Also yes, totally not exclusive, there is plenty of examples in US history of them inserting money into the middle class... oh wait
Also please do explain how a ticket will go from 500$ to 2k$ because a plane manufacturer goes bankrupt?
Do you know what bankruptcy is and what happens when you declare insolvency? The company is just going to disappear and nobody is going to take their market share am I right?
On April 26 2020 17:52 Santafairy wrote:
Or the government could protect and maintain established organizations that allow people to buy tickets around the world for 500 dollars and operate coach class at a loss instead of letting a random germ disproportionately blow up certain industries and destroy people's livelihoods because they were stupid enough to go to pilot school
This is airline's fault they should have invested more money in sars vaccines if they didn't want to go bankrupt
Why should the tax payers give their money away to plane manufacturers and airlines while other thousands of businesses going broke get shit?
A pandemic isn't even a blackswan event we have outbreaks quite often and airlines would be hardly affected but they were stupid enough to not hedge against tail risks and it blew in their faces, so the stockholders should lose their money the company should be bought or liquidated and their assets sold to other companies that hopefully in the future will handle their business better.
And no producing vaccines isn't a hedge, there are literal insurance and there are many ways to hedge against it like actually keeping a healthy amount of cash instead of stock buybacks so you don't go belly up the second anything doesn't go according to plan.
Airlines are just brands, the planes are there, the staff is there they will be simply managed by a different company that will supply the demand.
On April 25 2020 17:45 YoMeR wrote:
Reopening too soon....here we go main act part 2 incoming.
My state is reopening restaurants and retail stores tomorrow (at 50% capacity)
It feels very short sighted and dumb. I fear a likely 2nd wave will just make everything even worse than it currently is
Fun fact, the 1st wave of the spanish influenza was mild, the 2nd wave however was brutal, the virus mutated and the mortality skyrocketed killing specifically young people.
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TimDawg United States. Apr 28 2020 10:32. Posts 10197
On April 25 2020 17:45 YoMeR wrote:
Reopening too soon....here we go main act part 2 incoming.
My state is reopening restaurants and retail stores tomorrow (at 50% capacity)
It feels very short sighted and dumb. I fear a likely 2nd wave will just make everything even worse than it currently is
Fun fact, the 1st wave of the spanish influenza was mild, the 2nd wave however was brutal, the virus mutated and the mortality skyrocketed killing specifically young people.
Yes. I've read about that some.
It seems that with the probable (?) timing of the 2nd wave that it could coincide with the flu season as well from what I understand
online bob is actually a pretty smart person, not at all like the creepy fucker that sits in the sofa telling me he does nasty shit to me when im asleep - pinball
The second wave was caused by WW1 ending all the troops going home, thus spreading it. If you have to look at it in today's context, we have a much faster and larger transport network. I don't think we can necessarily compare the two events
Theoretically, if we have open borders it should spread much faster than the Spanish flu did, if they spread the same way that is. Except almost every country has closed their borders atm.
On April 28 2020 08:43 Baalim wrote:
Airlines are just brands, the planes are there, the staff is there they will be simply managed by a different company that will supply the demand.
No,no,no how dare you, tickets will just become unaffordable cause they bankrupted, no turning back. If PanAm didn't bankrupt the plane tickets would've been free now.
Last edit: 28/04/2020 14:08
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Santafairy Korea (South). Apr 28 2020 14:43. Posts 2225
On April 27 2020 20:19 Spitfiree wrote:
Im saying its retarded to bail out either company, but if based on your argument it still makes no sense to bail out Boeing, also sorry for literally quoting your entire statement but its apparently nitpicking. What a joke you are
Also yes, totally not exclusive, there is plenty of examples in US history of them inserting money into the middle class... oh wait
they are not mutually exclusive beliefs. they aren't contradictory ideas. you can support both.
bush gave stimulus checks during the financial crisis, the ppp provides loans/grants to small businesses to stay open and pay workers during the corona pandemic... smarmy asswipe
On April 27 2020 20:19 Spitfiree wrote:
Also please do explain how a ticket will go from 500$ to 2k$ because a plane manufacturer goes bankrupt?
hey shit for brains did you actually read my post saying "airlines" before you barged in here going BOEING BOEING BOEING BOEING. we get it you hate boeing. so edgy
On April 27 2020 20:19 Spitfiree wrote:
Do you know what bankruptcy is and what happens when you declare insolvency? The company is just going to disappear and nobody is going to take their market share am I right?
if a company were to take boeing market share it would be airbus which is not an american company and therefore not something the american government would be eager to encourage because no other company knows how to make huge airliners
do you know what "barrier to entry" means
spit "joker" firee it's simple we replace the 100 year old 150k employee aerospace giant
yeah all that intellectual capital? century of experience? economies of scale? supply chain? long term planning and R&D? bollocks
it can't be that hard to start designing and manufacturing en masse a family of airliners that carry hundreds of people
oh what about the huge legacy fleet oh shit my 777 is broken oh just take it back to the boeing 777 factory oops it's gone
do you know why airbus and boeing are a duopoly now? you fucking idiot? the same reason other companies don't penetrate the market now is the same reason one wouldn't supplant boeing. they can't make a reliable product at a competitive price without huge investments of time and capital. same with airlines. what are you TALKING ABOUT
if you want new airlines the consumer will have to teach them how to be efficient by investing the consumers' time and capital which will be more expensive than actually the streamlined efficient industry we have now
i can see the ads now
fly our new Dohing 666 here which has had 0 crashes and 0 flights at phoenix airlines for the low low price of $800 to visit one of america's decaying airports
great economic leadership
It seems to be not very profitable in the long run to play those kind of hands. - Gus Hansen
Supporting both ideas in reality is quite retarded since one of the ideas will always get backed and the other will always be ignored (obv corporations bailout wins). So yeah in theory you're right, in theory many things sounds cool.
Also yeah, thanks for pointing out all of the obvious complications when a big company dies, no shit the market won't recover the next day who would've thought. The thing is you see it as an end to the market while I see it as an opportunity for other companies. History backs me up, while your arguments are backed up by fear alone.
P.S. obviously massive infrastructures that have huge demand wont die even if Boeing goes bankrupt, regardless of whether they were the previous owner, that's just a bullshit statement. Private businesses are profit driven, they wont just ingest a company and simply get rid of all of its assets and know-how, rofl
you know you backed urself into a corner thus starting with the ad hominem, sad stuff
On April 28 2020 13:43 Santafairy wrote:
if a company were to take boeing market share it would be airbus which is not an american company and therefore not something the american government would be eager to encourage because no other company knows how to make huge airliners
do you know what "barrier to entry" means
spit "joker" firee it's simple we replace the 100 year old 150k employee aerospace giant
yeah all that intellectual capital? century of experience? economies of scale? supply chain? long term planning and R&D? bollocks
it can't be that hard to start designing and manufacturing en masse a family of airliners that carry hundreds of people
oh what about the huge legacy fleet oh shit my 777 is broken oh just take it back to the boeing 777 factory oops it's gone
do you know why airbus and boeing are a duopoly now? you fucking idiot? the same reason other companies don't penetrate the market now is the same reason one wouldn't supplant boeing. they can't make a reliable product at a competitive price without huge investments of time and capital. same with airlines. what are you TALKING ABOUT
if you want new airlines the consumer will have to teach them how to be efficient by investing the consumers' time and capital which will be more expensive than actually the streamlined efficient industry we have now
i can see the ads now
fly our new Dohing 666 here which has had 0 crashes and 0 flights at phoenix airlines for the low low price of $800 to visit one of america's decaying airports
great economic leadership
The duopoly exist precisely because of their bribe the government into maintaining it like it is now with the bailout.
The company doesn't dissapear nor Airbus is going to buy all the assets of a company when they themselves are in financial trouble lol, the company scale down, the rest of the assets are bough by smaller companies which will be far more efficient and better than Boeing.
You have it all backwards you think massive monopolies embedded with the state are the epitome of efficiency, "oh but who will have the experience!" lol dumbass, especially in an age where Tesla blew out of the water auto makers far bigger and older than Boeing, and then Space X takes the space exploration lead in the world with a team of young engineers and scientists.
The talented engineers in Boeing will get jobs in the upcoming aerospace industry, the dead weight labor will be left behind.
The economy doesn't need state leadership, quite the contrary it needs the state to get the fuck out of the way.
On April 29 2020 06:28 Baalim wrote:
What is funny is that for someone so behemently anti-socialist like Santafiry he sure has quite socialistic ideas:
The mother land's plane-building factory must be saved by the state in order to keep its legacy and protect its workers... lol.
That's the thing, he s not anti-socialist, he s pro-establishment
On April 28 2020 13:43 Santafairy wrote:
if a company were to take boeing market share it would be airbus which is not an american company and therefore not something the american government would be eager to encourage because no other company knows how to make huge airliners
do you know what "barrier to entry" means
spit "joker" firee it's simple we replace the 100 year old 150k employee aerospace giant
yeah all that intellectual capital? century of experience? economies of scale? supply chain? long term planning and R&D? bollocks
it can't be that hard to start designing and manufacturing en masse a family of airliners that carry hundreds of people
oh what about the huge legacy fleet oh shit my 777 is broken oh just take it back to the boeing 777 factory oops it's gone
do you know why airbus and boeing are a duopoly now? you fucking idiot? the same reason other companies don't penetrate the market now is the same reason one wouldn't supplant boeing. they can't make a reliable product at a competitive price without huge investments of time and capital. same with airlines. what are you TALKING ABOUT
if you want new airlines the consumer will have to teach them how to be efficient by investing the consumers' time and capital which will be more expensive than actually the streamlined efficient industry we have now
i can see the ads now
fly our new Dohing 666 here which has had 0 crashes and 0 flights at phoenix airlines for the low low price of $800 to visit one of america's decaying airports
great economic leadership
The duopoly exist precisely because of their bribe the government into maintaining it like it is now with the bailout.
The company doesn't dissapear nor Airbus is going to buy all the assets of a company when they themselves are in financial trouble lol, the company scale down, the rest of the assets are bough by smaller companies which will be far more efficient and better than Boeing.
You have it all backwards you think massive monopolies embedded with the state are the epitome of efficiency, "oh but who will have the experience!" lol dumbass, especially in an age where Tesla blew out of the water auto makers far bigger and older than Boeing, and then Space X takes the space exploration lead in the world with a team of young engineers and scientists.
The talented engineers in Boeing will get jobs in the upcoming aerospace industry, the dead weight labor will be left behind.
The economy doesn't need state leadership, quite the contrary it needs the state to get the fuck out of the way.
By picking Tesla for your example you are proving the exact opposite point that you wish to prove. Tesla's success was predicated on state leadership both directly and indirectly. They received a government loan for 465 million dollars in 2009. This loan was granted at the most critical time, during the period between research and innovation, better known as "The valley of death". And guess what? This was a guaranteed loan. Similar financing was given around the same time to Solyndra who went bankrupt, and it was taxpayers who had to pick up the bill.
In terms of indirect investments, the myths surrounding tech companies like Tesla and Apple are quite easy to debunk. So much of the technologies they use have been developed with support from the state:
The state also played a role to give such companies competitive advantages, e.g. policies supporting Apple computers and software in schools since the 90s, and on a global level granting access to new markets like Japan and shielding them from potential competition. And when large corporations are not given insane tax breaks by the government, they are masters of tax evasion, so that an increase in wealth tax at a national level--even if it could get through-- would be futile.
More on Tesla/Musk:
"Tesla Motors, SolarCity and SpaceX, all led by entrepreneur Elon Musk, are currently surfing a new wave of state technology. Together, these high-tech ventures have benefited from $4.9 billion in local, state and federal government support, such as grants, taxbreaks, investments in factory construction and subsidized loans.The State also forges demand—creates the market—for their products by granting tax credits and rebates to consumers for solar panels and electric vehicles and by contracting $5.5 billion worth of procurement contracts with SpaceX and $5.5 billion for the National Aeronautics and Space Ad-ministration (NASA) and the US Air Force. While some of this govern-mental support has recently been the focus of news articles, two things have passed relatively unnoticed (Hirsch 2015). First, that Tesla Motors also benefited for a massive publicly funded guaranteed loan of $465 million. Secondly Tesla, SolarCity, and SpaceX have also benefited from direct investments in radical technologies by the US Department of Energy, in the case of battery technologies and solar panels, and by NASA, in the case of rocket technologies. Technologies that SpaceX is now using in its business dealings with the International Space Station. " (from Mariana Mazzucato, economics professor)
fuck I should just sell some of my Pokemon cards, if no one stakes that is what I will have to do - lostaccount
Of course I'm aware Tesla took government money, why would you get a riskier loan from a private bank when the state is giving you a better deal?, how does that negates that an upcoming modern company was able to defeat humongous auto industries among the ones with the highest barrier of entry in the world? Also Tesla payed its loan unlike the other car manufacturers.
Arguing "but Tesla took gov money" is like arguing "how can you be a socialist if you have a smarthphone!", arguing that the smartphone has tech developed by the state is the same thing, yeah no shit the biggest corporations in the planet that spend the most in R&D produce tech, thanks for the info bro.
You often show your tankie soul, thats why it angered you so much when I called you that, for an "anarchist" you sure lilke the state, and remember that not long ago you said something along the lines of "if push comes to shove, libertarians like baal will side with fascists against leftists", well my friend, if push comes to shove you will side with authoritarians against libertarians.
Expanding on that though, I think you say that I'd side with fascists because thats what you'd do, you side with ANTIFA because as Chomsky says, It's seductive to side with a group that uses violence to do your ideological bidding, but you are wrong, and whle I recognize the seducitveness of authoritarians stomping leftism to me the Y axis of the political compass is more important, but to you its the other way around, you care more about the X axis, that is why you support leftists authoritarians like Chavez or Maduro, its ironical that you fought so hard to the anarchist tag when liberty is quite down in your value list.
Ex-PokerStars Team Pro Online
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thewh00sel United States. May 01 2020 04:41. Posts 2734
On April 30 2020 22:00 Baalim wrote:
Of course I'm aware Tesla took government money, why would you get a riskier loan from a private bank when the state is giving you a better deal?, how does that negates that an upcoming modern company was able to defeat humongous auto industries among the ones with the highest barrier of entry in the world? Also Tesla payed its loan unlike the other car manufacturers.
Arguing "but Tesla took gov money" is like arguing "how can you be a socialist if you have a smarthphone!", arguing that the smartphone has tech developed by the state is the same thing, yeah no shit the biggest corporations in the planet that spend the most in R&D produce tech, thanks for the info bro.
You often show your tankie soul, thats why it angered you so much when I called you that, for an "anarchist" you sure lilke the state, and remember that not long ago you said something along the lines of "if push comes to shove, libertarians like baal will side with fascists against leftists", well my friend, if push comes to shove you will side with authoritarians against libertarians.
Wait, isn't Tesla a giant fraud? Thought they just cooked the books enough to make the algos confused and then their CEO is like "Yooooo Retail, buy up my stonks!"
A government is the most dangerous threat to man’s rights: it holds a legal monopoly on the use of physical force against legally disarmed victims. - Ayn Rand
On April 30 2020 22:00 Baalim wrote:
Of course I'm aware Tesla took government money, why would you get a riskier loan from a private bank when the state is giving you a better deal?, how does that negates that an upcoming modern company was able to defeat humongous auto industries among the ones with the highest barrier of entry in the world? Also Tesla payed its loan unlike the other car manufacturers.
It doesn't negate that point, but it negates your overall argument for the separation of the free market and the state, and the "lone entrepreneur" myth where you have these men of genius who take change and bear the bulk of the risks. That Tesla paid its loan is irrelevant to the fact that their losses would have been socialized. In the real world, not in your fantasy world, that's how capitalism functions: capitalism for the poor, socialism for the rich. You have one of the best examples ever right now occurring under your very eyes with the pandemic but you're still missing the point that the so-called free market is never going to let go of support and competitive advantages offered by the state in numerous ways, in the same way that a tyrant doesn't give up power.
Arguing "but Tesla took gov money" is like arguing "how can you be a socialist if you have a smarthphone!", arguing that the smartphone has tech developed by the state is the same thing, yeah no shit the biggest corporations in the planet that spend the most in R&D produce tech, thanks for the info bro.
They are not equivalent at all. Most of the funding has come from taxpayers and very little of the profits have went back to the taxpayers. Most people don't realize that. It has nothing to do with an appeal to hypocrisy, it just serves to show the dynamics of neoliberal capitalism in action.
You often show your tankie soul, thats why it angered you so much when I called you that, for an "anarchist" you sure lilke the state, and remember that not long ago you said something along the lines of "if push comes to shove, libertarians like baal will side with fascists against leftists", well my friend, if push comes to shove you will side with authoritarians against libertarians.
It hasn't angered me, it would be like if you called me a sheep rapist or some other nonsense. It's so disconnected from reality that there is no way I could possibly take offense to it -- it just makes me laugh that you still don't know what a tankie is after all this time lol. I am such a tankie, that's why I retweeted a thread that shits on Lenin/tankies a week or so ago:
Facepalm.gif
fuck I should just sell some of my Pokemon cards, if no one stakes that is what I will have to do - lostaccount
It doesn't negate that point, but it negates your overall argument for the separation of the free market and the state, and the "lone entrepreneur" myth where you have these men of genius who take change and bear the bulk of the risks. That Tesla paid its loan is irrelevant to the fact that their losses would have been socialized. In the real world, not in your fantasy world, that's how capitalism functions: capitalism for the poor, socialism for the rich. You have one of the best examples ever right now occurring under your very eyes with the pandemic but you're still missing the point that the so-called free market is never going to let go of support and competitive advantages offered by the state in numerous ways, in the same way that a tyrant doesn't give up power.
A leftie talking about "in the real world your sistem doesnt work" are you serious? Ok, I'll admit that the free market can't improve and it will always been what it has been but you do the same with socialism deal? (in before. oh but I'm not a socialist, I'm a left-wing paleo libertarian with anarcho syndicalist).
Yes they aren't going to stop using the state, and that is one of the many reasons there shouldn't be a big state for sale.
They are not equivalent at all. Most of the funding has come from taxpayers and very little of the profits have went back to the taxpayers. Most people don't realize that. It has nothing to do with an appeal to hypocrisy, it just serves to show the dynamics of neoliberal capitalism in action.
Who is aguing in favour of bailouts and subsidies? I'm the one clamoring for the downfall of these companies.
It hasn't angered me, it would be like if you called me a sheep rapist or some other nonsense. It's so disconnected from reality that there is no way I could possibly take offense to it -- it just makes me laugh that you still don't know what a tankie is after all this time lol. I am such a tankie, that's why I retweeted a thread that shits on Lenin/tankies a week or so ago:
I use the term tankie to point out your true colors you are an authoritarian at core, you've openly support mounstrous authoritarian socialist leaders, you support political violence and speech police, its obvious to everybody except yourself.
that I am a tankie is obvious to everyone except me? the gaslighting is strong with this one.
I think everyone who knows how to use Google to look up the definition of that word and who has paid any attention to my posts knows the opposite to be true.
Who is aguing in favour of bailouts and subsidies? I'm the one clamoring for the downfall of these companies.
Yes, I know. Because you don't try to understand how capitalism works and don't use reason and evidence to re-evaluate the things you believe, preferring to move backwards from your conclusions and make meaningless condemnations. Point is: you want to have your cake and eat it too. When it suits you, you'll promote companies and suck up to parasitic billionaires and promote them as the answer. When it's pointed out to you that the way they 'collude' with the state is an inherent part of capitalism, and that there is not a shred of evidence that it can function otherwise, all you have to say is "but I condemn it". Meanwhile you use rhetoric that helps those very people remain in power and promote the status quo as being much better than any move towards more democratic involvement, i.e. "the left".
That's the real problem here. When you talk about reducing state intervention, all you're really advocating for -- in the real world -- is more of the same neoliberal programs that further accelerates ecological destruction and social instability. What else do you think this rhetoric could possibly accomplish?
fuck I should just sell some of my Pokemon cards, if no one stakes that is what I will have to do - lostaccount
On May 02 2020 06:34 Loco wrote:
that I am a tankie is obvious to everyone except me? the gaslighting is strong with this one.
you fail at reading comprehension, everyone knows you are an authoritarian, for example Drone also leans left but I seriouisly doubt he would support Chavez, but you do.
Perhaps its a languge barrier so I'll speak in wokespeak for you: you are a crypto-leftwing-authoritarian.
Saying that I fail at reading comprehension is just doubling down on your attempted gaslighting. It's certainly not my fault that you don't know how to use words accurately and won't accept to correct your misunderstandings when they are pointed out to you.
When I give support to a person, it's highly contextual and always provisional. It's never absolute. My views are constantly changing -- indeed that is the very definition of truly progressive politics. There is much that I supported about the revolution that Chavez was representing, and there was much to condemn about it (and him personally) as well. And although I have stated from the very start that I didn't support "state socialism", and that he didn't have my full support in anyway, knowing what I know now and which I didn't know before, I have even more reasons to criticize Chavez than I used to have.
The difference between me and you is that I make my criticisms as fair as possible, and I do not revert to the belief in promoting corporate tyranny as a result of my anti-state views. I believe in moving towards less chances for tyranny to be possible, not more. The right-wing libertarian worldview and its deformed little brother Neoliberalism is more awful than any "socialist" dictatorship has ever been, and you only work to accelerate it further with the highly ideological/reterritorialized mainstream language that you use.
Ironically, Chomsky was quite fond of Chavez, and yet not only do you not believe him to be an authoritarian, you also use him as a contrasting "good leftist" figure, opposite to me:
" Chomsky is well known in Venezuela
for his critiques of U.S. imperialism and support for the progressive political changes
underway in Venezuela and other Latin American countries in recent years. President
Chavez regularly references Chomsky in speeches and makes widely publicized recommendations
of Chomsky's 2003 book, Hegemony or Survival: America's Quest for Global
Dominance.
"Hegemony or survival; we opt for survival," said Chavez
in a press conference to welcome Chomsky. He compared Chomsky's thesis to that of German
socialist Rosa Luxemburg in the early 1900s, "Socialism or Barbarism," and referred
to Chomsky as "one of the greatest defenders of peace, one of the greatest pioneers
of a better world."
Through an interpreter, Chomsky responded, "I write
about peace and criticize the barriers to peace; that's easy. What's harder is
to create a better world... and what's so exciting about at last visiting Venezuela
is that I can see how a better world is being created."
Seems like you should have known this by now, yet somehow you act like you don't. How strange is that? Knowing how principled you are, I'm sure that I can expect you to also call Chomsky a "core authoritarian" or a tankie now in order to be consistent. The greatest irony of it is that you would use Chomsky, who has been condemned by anarchists for supporting Chavez's Venezuela, as some kind of non-authoritarian opposition to "secretly authoritarian anarchism":
"Contrary to what many think, the ability to believe in fairy tales and to blindly accept a fiction, no matter how fantastic or grotesque, is not the sole attribute of the dumb and ignorant. The famous writer Noam Chomsky has just proved that intelligent and cultivated intellectuals are also capable of believing and adopting conduct and political action totally dogmatic, false and authoritarian. They believe so or at least pretend to." https://libcom.org/library/chomsky-chavez-clown
I wonder if you have the balls to read the above article and to admit that you were completely clueless about what anarcho-communists advocate for. My guess is that you won't even bother reading it, preferring to stick with your comfortable illusions of an homogeneous Left who is intrinsically authoritarian. It has always been useful for your political beliefs to act like anarchism, i.e. anti-authoritarianism on the left, doesn't really exist. It doesn't matter how strong and how influential the strain of anti-authoritarian thinking has been throughout history, you cannot see it with your ideological blinders on. Your very position which pretends to be anti-authoritarian while being authoritarian (as all right-wing politics is) prevents you from even seeking to become aware of that history.
Perhaps its a languge barrier so I'll speak in wokespeak for you: you are a crypto-leftwing-authoritarian.
It's an educational barrier. I didn't stop learning things other than what might bring me more money or improve my social status some 12 years ago. I have some relatively high standards for myself as a human being that you don't have, and I've made it my main purpose in life to become more knowledgeable, at the expense of increasing my personal wealth, social status, and having more choices of passive/mindless entertainment.
And let us be perfectly candid: this is what debating with anti-capitalists is for you, mindless entertainment, and nothing more. It's a result of the low standards that you have for yourself. It would be understandable if there was a nagging frustration behind all of your half formed arguments, misrepresentations and knee jerk comments, which reflects back to the poor relationship that you have with yourself and your own stagnant self-becoming. For me it's not entertaining; it's just boring and sad.
fuck I should just sell some of my Pokemon cards, if no one stakes that is what I will have to do - lostaccount
On May 01 2020 01:34 Baalim wrote:
Expanding on that though, I think you say that I'd side with fascists because thats what you'd do, you side with ANTIFA because as Chomsky says, It's seductive to side with a group that uses violence to do your ideological bidding, but you are wrong, and whle I recognize the seducitveness of authoritarians stomping leftism to me the Y axis of the political compass is more important, but to you its the other way around, you care more about the X axis, that is why you support leftists authoritarians like Chavez or Maduro, its ironical that you fought so hard to the anarchist tag when liberty is quite down in your value list.
There is no 'political advancement' being made by antifa through direct violence. First of all, you do not gain power by using force. The fact that you resort to using force is a testament to the lack of power that you have. Power and force are not the same things. Power exists when there is meditation, force is a result of a lack of mediation. Power is at its strongest when you have control over others while giving them the illusion of self-determination, which is only possible when there is a lot of mediation involved. Force cannot accomplish this. What antifa achieves, if it achieves something, is local repression of fascist organizing, and it makes it harder for fascists to blend within liberal society by doxxing them. Secondly, antifa's violence is purely reactive, i.e. it is negative -- it responds to the positive violence of fascism, which presents itself as active oppression and violence. It doesn't further any political goals that pertain to the ultraleft to repress these forces, since it's only reactionary. The "politics of the streets" that involve direct violence will never have any impact on global politics, they are incapable of building an international communist movement.
The reason you would side with the fascists is because you have the same core belief in social hierarchy, and you want to preserve "what's yours" above everything else. The reason I wouldn't side with authoritarian communists is precisely the opposite reason: I do not believe in their belief in social hierarchy, as presented through their vanguard politics and all of the historical evidence that shows that the state will not "wither away" after having "defeated bourgeois forces in society". You have more in common with them than I do as someone who is a strong believer in capitalism and private property -- which is what this aberration of "liberty" that you speak of seeks to defend -- not actual, positive, freedom to act in a world that promotes one's flourishing.
Drone also leans left
Here we go again. Who gives a shit? Why do you always revert to these "you're too radical" arguments? The only thing that truly matters is how consistent one's beliefs are with one's purported goals and actions.I would be inconsistent if I supported populist left-wing dictatorships (which I don't). There, end of story. Couldn't you have stuck with that? Everything else is trivial, so why bother mentioning it? If you want to insist on discussing Drone's beliefs: his might be more acceptable to political opponents or "polite society" than mine, but they are not more consistent or mature. We choose the company we keep; I'm not going to fault people for wanting to be appreciated by more people and "create bridges". For me ideological coherence is more important than wider sociability. And don't get me started about what's "realistic" and what isn't from your respective liberal perspectives.
And if you have any doubts about the veracity of above claim, I'd challenge him (and you) to watch "Planet of the Humans" (which was posted by RiKD) and to explain to me what it gets wrong about the failed promise of green capitalism. Just for starters. I can challenge both of your liberal ideologies on various grounds, but we can start with the ecological one.
fuck I should just sell some of my Pokemon cards, if no one stakes that is what I will have to do - lostaccount
Last edit: 02/05/2020 11:00
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Liquid`Drone Norway. May 02 2020 11:18. Posts 3093
tbh my opinion on chavez and venezuela are 1: I'm not really knowledgeable enough on the subject matter to confidently voice my opinion, and 2: I am sympathetic towards the initial goals of focusing efforts towards combating extreme poverty and improving education and health care services, and I'm very fond of nationalizing natural resources. However it looks from my fairly uneducated lens that there was a whole lot of mismanagement coupled with too big oil dependency coupled with nationalization leading to a hostile US which is obviously going to hurt any latin american country even if outright coups aren't executed, and then Maduro has just been a disaster.
But if you take a gapminder look at Venezuela between 1999 and 2013, it's really not so bad. The collapse happens after Chavez is out. (This is indeed a trend with authoritarian regimes and one of the reasons to oppose them, anyway. ) And while I am supportive of some of the policies, increased democracy and inclusiveness of the population is a primary reason why I favor improvement from the bottom rather than from the top, meaning that while improving education and literacy rates is great, it loses part of its function when coupled with increased authoritarianism.
lol POKER
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Stroggoz New Zealand. May 02 2020 12:11. Posts 5296
Chavez was not authoritarian. He had one of the best electoral systems for democracy. No miscounting, and 97% participation rate. Far superior to america's electoral system imo. So he had a bit of a personality cult around him which i dislike a lot, but that pales in comparison to the PR industry in rich countries.
Planet of the humans seriously misrepresents green technology, otherwise the doco is ok. But the part on green technology is going to be used as ammunition from climate deniers imo
One of 3 non decent human beings on a site of 5 people with between 2-3 decent human beings
“You use more fossil fuels to do this [talking about renewable energies] than you’re getting benefit from it. You would have been better off just burning the fossil fuels.”-Ozzie Zehner.
The parts on the energy industry pretending to be clean is all true, and in fact you can see that still happening today. The Davos meeting this year where they pretended to care about the environment by naming it amoung the 5 biggest problems in the world, that's all patting themselves on the back, ofc they arn't going to do anything about it.
Bill Mckibbin has not been co-opted by the energy industry, he has not taken a single cent from them, fossil or green, and he has long been anti-growth. He revised his view on biomass. I'm not sure about the part on him promoting an index fund that was only 1% clean. I thought the parts with him were in seriously bad faith though.
In general i don't think the environmental movement has been co-opted, rather it's just big industry pretending to be environmentalists. Or doing things like pretending to be friends with Greta Thunberg for political capital. There are some environmentalists out there that are dumb enough to fall for that, but not many.
I agree with the film that population growth and consumption has to be curbed. The interview with the scientist who critiques the agricultural system is right..that is absolutely one of the worst and most inefficient systems in capitalism. In fact the film critiquing the cutting down of forrests to put up wind turbines is rare, and its so absurdly insignificant compared to land clearing for agriculture, particularly for animals, its not worth mentioning.
One of 3 non decent human beings on a site of 5 people with between 2-3 decent human beings
I have read some of them and they are not very good reviews, as one would expect due to the fact that only capitalist realists are going to be selected to write columns for mainstream outlets. Their job, first and foremost, is to uphold our faith in capital saving our lifestyles, not to inform us. For someone who is so critical of the universities and essentially call them one of the biggest oppressive/brainwashing centers in the world, you sure seem to have a blindspot when it comes to ecology. I can say the same about your usual opinion on media conflicting with your telling me to look up just about any review of the film in order to find a lot of valid criticisms.
The article you linked starts with a provoking title that presents itself more as an emotionally loaded attack on the producers and the film than a reasoned critique, and sure enough, most of the critique is vapid or tenuous at best. If you have a look at the comment section and how the top upvoted comments are from people who are furiously asking for the film to be banned from the internet (!) you can guess why the article is written in this way.
I thought Ozzie Zehner said that part about biomass, but I went back and he was talking about the one particular set up with the Koch-industry provided mirrors and solar grid + the natural gas plants having to be turned on for hours to start it up as using more fossil fuels than is worth. I don't know whether that's true or not but it's clear that it is promoted as something that it is not and it is still immensely damaging and it's not going to solve the issues that humanity faces; it doesn't scale with how destructive it is even if it is less destructive as a whole.
On biomass: I find it odd that other people knew how destructive it was and didn't advocate for it within the environmental movement and it took McKibben--a highly influential person--so much time to figure it out. And that despite having figured it out, he still advocates for leaving the plants open now.
The film-maker responded to McKibben's criticisms of the film here and I'll quote one part of it:
"We were aware of Mr. McKibben’s 2016 op-ed presenting disadvantages of biomass. That op-ed also states that existing biomass plants should nevertheless remain in operation. After writing his 2016 op-ed, Mr. McKibben continued vigorous support for national legislation to fund new biomass infrastructure. In 2017, he endorsed the 100 by ’50 Act, which included grants up to $100 million for “second-generation advanced biofuels,” as well as the extension of biofuel producer credits, which the Koch Brothers had also lobbied for. Bill McKibben is still listed as a fellow at the institute that worked to create and promote the legislation. During this period after his 2016 op-ed, Mr. McKibben also supported a Sierra Club initiative called “Ready for 100,” which contained biomass."
I think the story behind Greta Thunberg and how she is being used is a lot more interesting but the story is more or less the same as far as I can see: she serves as a face for a movement that is effectively controlled opposition -- which is why the movement is failing and will keep failing to change things. Even if big industry was just "pretending" -- they are benefitting from it enormously, and if they are able to become associated with the "face of the revolution", and people think that they can buy/consume their way out of these crises, it guarantees that there won't be a revolution.
Don't just read the criticisms of the movie, read their responses to the criticisms as well. They don't seem to be particularly unfair to McKibben from my perspective. This is someone with a lot of influence who should be doing a lot better than he is.
I'm not sure about the part on him promoting an index fund that was only 1% clean. I thought the parts with him were in seriously bad faith though.
That part is a big deal and if you're not sure about it then I can't see how you can justify saying they are treating him poorly.
Personally, the part I disagree with the most is the part about population growth, and the way that they nebulously threw it in there, almost so as to give enough room for ecofascists to get the wrong idea. They should have been stressing the fact that it is capitalism that has created these modern industrial lifestyles and that this is what needs to be surmounted, not a reduction in numbers. Also, talking about overconsumption and not talking about the forces that have made it so that we have come to be so atomized, and the way relate to the world/nature as a result is a huge problem. That is the key concern that is left completely unexplored.
fuck I should just sell some of my Pokemon cards, if no one stakes that is what I will have to do - lostaccount
fuck I should just sell some of my Pokemon cards, if no one stakes that is what I will have to do - lostaccount
1
blackjacki2 United States. May 03 2020 19:55. Posts 2581
On May 02 2020 11:11 Stroggoz wrote:
Chavez was not authoritarian. He had one of the best electoral systems for democracy. No miscounting, and 97% participation rate. Far superior to america's electoral system imo. So he had a bit of a personality cult around him which i dislike a lot, but that pales in comparison to the PR industry in rich countries.
Planet of the humans seriously misrepresents green technology, otherwise the doco is ok. But the part on green technology is going to be used as ammunition from climate deniers imo
After losing the 2004 Venezuelan recall referendum, the opposition became determined to participate in the 2008 elections.[7] Prior to the elections, the General Comptroller, a Chávez ally, banned almost 300 candidates who had been accused of corruption without making formal charges.[7] Leopoldo López, a rising figure within the opposition who raised fears among the Chávez administration, was one of the hundreds of candidates barred from holding office.[7] The Supreme Tribunal later ratified the bans and removed the candidates from the process.[8][9][10]
The elections go great once you ban all the opposition candidates. At least the bans were upheld by the Supreme Court. Of course that's also after Chavez's government added 12 justices to the Supreme Court so they could stuff the court with a bunch of pro-Chavez appointments. This was also the time Chavez was trying desperately to amend the constitution to get rid of term limits so that he could be President for life so having those extra 12 justices might come in handy when the constitutionality of that is questioned.
It doesn't negate that point, but it negates your overall argument for the separation of the free market and the state, and the "lone entrepreneur" myth where you have these men of genius who take change and bear the bulk of the risks. That Tesla paid its loan is irrelevant to the fact that their losses would have been socialized. In the real world, not in your fantasy world, that's how capitalism functions: capitalism for the poor, socialism for the rich. You have one of the best examples ever right now occurring under your very eyes with the pandemic but you're still missing the point that the so-called free market is never going to let go of support and competitive advantages offered by the state in numerous ways, in the same way that a tyrant doesn't give up power.
A leftie talking about "in the real world your sistem doesnt work" are you serious? Ok, I'll admit that the free market can't improve and it will always been what it has been but you do the same with socialism deal? (in before. oh but I'm not a socialist, I'm a left-wing paleo libertarian with anarcho syndicalist).
Yes they aren't going to stop using the state, and that is one of the many reasons there shouldn't be a big state for sale.
In the narrow sense that you are using it, no, I am not a socialist. Neither was Marx, unlike the authoritarian left says. There are a number of different meanings and ideologies/tendencies associated with the word socialism, most of which I don't align with (anarcho-syndicalism, for instance, is something that I don't believe in, since you're bringing it up). The one definition you are using since the beginning has always been referring to state capitalist societies with socialist ideologues who had no chances of socializing the means of production since (1) they were strongly hierarchical and (2) they had no significant international movement supporting them.
You have to be a complete ignoramus to think you can use the word socialism as a single definition word, and even more to still believe that I support this type of socialism today. I've said from the start of these discussions that socialism, i.e. having socialized the means of production, i.e. communism, cannot exist in isolation, in one country or nation. It is only an evolution that could happen at a global level.
Your second statement is logically incoherent. There "should" be "smaller" state? Who makes that state smaller, except another social body that performs the exact same functions as a state? Are we just going to abandon the law of gravity because we "should" be able to fly, too?
The reason they aren't going to stop using the state is because of capital, because the state and the markets are two sides of the same coin, they not only share common interests, but reinforce each other. They are both determined by the same constraints imposed on them by the logic of capital, but the state is seemingly more directly responsible for social stability (which, as you might realize, also serves capital). The logic of capital is one where all of the decisions must be aligned with the generation of profit/growth as much as possible, rather than protecting the value of life. This is no more optional to the system as it exists now than it is optional for you to have oxygen to breathe as a biological system now. Except in the former system, the finality doesn't serve life, it is effectively leading to its extinction.
Now, it might be possible in the future that human beings wouldn't need oxygen, or at least would need less of it, if we allude to transhumanism. You can think of the goal of post-capitalist world in the same way, except it happens at a higher level of organization. Instead of transforming individual bodies, it is transforming a society so that it no longer relies as much on a more destructive process. (On an individual level, breathing oxygen is destructive, as it causes oxidation/aging; on a social level, capital is destructive, because the profit motive is "oxidizing", it's too much wear and tear on the planet, and on our psyches.)
You can claim that a post-capitalist world is not a *believable* solution because of how unlikely it is, and make inferences to human nature preventing it, and that's fine, but one thing you cannot conclude, if you are honest enough, is that it isn't logically consistent with the desire for more life, and more freedom, to advocate for it. Ring-wing libertarianism and minarchism are definitely not consistent with those goals.
The failures of those regimes you have in mind when you hear the words socialism and communism are not to be confused with the logical failure of post-capitalist theorizing in general. It might be true that capitalism is where the buck stops, and our species cannot surmount its destructiveness, but this doesn't negate that it is the only possible way forward that is open to us now, evolutionarily speaking.
Also:
fuck I should just sell some of my Pokemon cards, if no one stakes that is what I will have to do - lostaccount
Socialist criticizing capitalism because in the REAL WORLD the system doesnt work.
My endorsements of murderous dictators can change at any time without any notice, can't pin me on them, this is true progressive poltics.
Power cannot be won through violence.
And finally... Chavez was not an authoritarian, also Kimg Jong Un has a perfect 100% approval rate, people love him so much they hung pictures of him in their homes, perfect democracy.
We have reached peak clown world on this forum LOL.
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Stroggoz New Zealand. May 05 2020 04:31. Posts 5296
On May 04 2020 00:02 Spitfiree wrote:
Seem to me that Chavez was as democratic as Putin and Erdogan are nowadays
he was bad but not that bad imo. The world democracy index ranked venezeula under chavez as a hybrid regime, and russia as an authoritarian regime. That's the kind of metric most political scientists use. Whatever one might think of his stacking of supreme court justices, (imo it's completely unjustifiable), its not really enough to make someone a dictator. It's also noteable that many of those people people banned from holding office had took part in the 2002 coup, and wern't prosecuted over it. If anyone wants my source its the latinbarometa which polls venezeulan opinion. (they think democracy increased by a wide margin since pre-chavez until 2013). Im not saying popular support or increased perception of democracy means it's democracy ofc, in the phillipines most people support duturte even though he's carrying out mass extra-judicial murder. So that's something to be considered as a counterexample to any argument that goes off polls. But i don't think it's something to dismiss. (i dont think any countries in the world are really a democracy, but there are different grades of it).
Imo the worst thing he did was his support of FARC near the colombian border, and his militaries involvement with drug trafficers. That is what experts think caused the very high murder rate. That's obviously highly immoral, but why does everyone call him a dictator because of that and not people like nelson mandela that gave arms to worse?
As for economic management his economic policies were just a less harsh version than previous ones which consisted of venezeula taking orders from the IMF. Chavez still let the rich rob the economy under his tenure, but used part of the massive oil boom to fund social policies. He could have gone a lot further. If you look at IMF policies pre-chavez they were a complete disaster, as in most other places in the third world, the 1980's-1990's were some of the worst periods in the third world, venezeula included. There's an economist mark weisbrot who's looked at comparison from then to the chavez era.
A side note on wikipedia sources: They arn't reliable on venezeula. Neither is human rights watch, or freedom house. Or journalists like rory corral. (his book has no sources itself). Venezeulan journalists often arn't reliable either, unfortunately. Wikipedia gets its sources from all of these. Every source i've read on the situation has some sort of bias. But if you want to see how biased international media coverage is, there is a short book that covers 2002 coup and one of the elections, and also talks about how news is covered internally in venezeula. its by alan macleod. its called bad news from venezeula, or something.
One of 3 non decent human beings on a site of 5 people with between 2-3 decent human beings
Last edit: 05/05/2020 22:00
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Stroggoz New Zealand. May 05 2020 04:33. Posts 5296
Not sure what loco means but power is gained through force all the time unfortunately. I think we can all agree on that
One of 3 non decent human beings on a site of 5 people with between 2-3 decent human beings
Last edit: 05/05/2020 04:33
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Stroggoz New Zealand. May 05 2020 04:45. Posts 5296
On May 03 2020 12:06 Loco wrote:
The article you linked starts with a provoking title that presents itself more as an emotionally loaded attack on the producers and the film than a reasoned critique, and sure enough, most of the critique is vapid or tenuous at best. If you have a look at the comment section and how the top upvoted comments are from people who are furiously asking for the film to be banned from the internet (!) you can guess why the article is written in this way.
The review seemed fine to me. I just looked at the main point on life cycle's. I'm suprised so many of my left-friends have been lenient on this documentary.
Your comment on universities; I think ecology and climate science in general is a legitimate science. I don't think the same is true of neoclassical economics and other parts of the social sciences.
One of 3 non decent human beings on a site of 5 people with between 2-3 decent human beings
On May 05 2020 03:33 Stroggoz wrote:
Not sure what loco means but power is gained through force all the time unfortunately. I think we can all agree on that
I would use your own words as a counterpoint. The reason you believe that "the most oppressive institutions" are the schools/universities and the media, and not the police forces--even though they have the monopoly on force--is precisely because you understand that force (or the threat of it) is only a small part of what keeps oppressive institutions together and makes them so efficient within society.
Power, I would say, is not "gained" through force; rather it is that force is used to protect those other systems that make those gains. The more a power-holder has power over others, the less force (or threats of force) they need to be using, because they have managed to make their own will that of the other's, and make the other feel as though it is his, as he is voluntarily carrying out those actions that benefit the power-holder. Torturing someone to death is not something that increases your power; flipping someone to your cause or turning them into a spy or a propagandist for your cause is. Similarly, a narcissist in a relationship holds a lot more power over the other person if they are convincing them that they are the perfect partner for that other person, or that they need them for XYZ reason, than if they only rely on threats of force and its actualization.
fuck I should just sell some of my Pokemon cards, if no one stakes that is what I will have to do - lostaccount
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Stroggoz New Zealand. May 05 2020 08:03. Posts 5296
well i was clearly talking about the context of our society when i said that, and not societies where turkmenistan where police torture does make the statesman quite powerful. Cultural hegemony that gramsci talked about is deeply embedded in all societies though.
One of 3 non decent human beings on a site of 5 people with between 2-3 decent human beings
The article you linked starts with a provoking title that presents itself more as an emotionally loaded attack on the producers and the film than a reasoned critique, and sure enough, most of the critique is vapid or tenuous at best. If you have a look at the comment section and how the top upvoted comments are from people who are furiously asking for the film to be banned from the internet (!) you can guess why the article is written in this way.
The review seemed fine to me. I just looked at the main point on life cycle's. I'm suprised so many of my left-friends have been lenient on this documentary.
Your comment on universities; I think ecology and climate science in general is a legitimate science. I don't think the same is true of neoclassical economics and other parts of the social sciences.
They are of course legitimate sciences but their legitimacy doesn't mean that they exist outside of spheres of power that influence their worldviews and the data they pay attention to, and that those who are selected to write about them in mainstream news outlets should be granted some special status that those from other disciplines don't benefit from.
Life cycles are definitely better, and the bits on solar energy were not encompassing of all solar, especially today, it was clearly cherry-picked. But the unfortunate side effect of this knowledge is that most people tend to assume that it will just keep improving, and that there is a lot of time ahead of us for improvement, and that we'll be able to rely on this, and rely on capitalism to usher in a green revolution. I think the documentary succeeds in making people skeptical about this, which is good, despite the factual errors or oversimplifications (which are always to be expected in documentaries). Where it's really problematic, again, is at a political level, when they're talking about "us humans" being the cause, rather than making a nuanced critique of the incentives of capitalist relations and oligarchical forces bearing the bulk of that responsibility. Even though in their response they claim that they don't advocate for "population control", when they use the sentence "we have to get ourselves under control" as their conclusion, it's hard to take them seriously.
Still, I think you're underestimating the greenwashing that goes on and will keep going on as the focus remains on techno-fixes and using market forces. The documentary does a fine job of showing that, and showing how people's natural dispositions toward optimism makes them easy to fool.
On May 05 2020 07:03 Stroggoz wrote:
well i was clearly talking about the context of our society when i said that, and not societies where turkmenistan where police torture does make the statesman quite powerful. Cultural hegemony that gramsci talked about is deeply embedded in all societies though.
Well, so was I; I was responding to Baal's claim that "I support antifa's use of force because they are advancing my political goals." That's not the reason for my (conditional) support; and they don't.
Yes, it is, and that statesman would also be more powerful if he didn't have to rely on it. Power increases its efficiency and stability by concealing itself, by presenting itself as something commonplace, something taken for granted. The more mediated and dispersed power is, the stronger and more stable over time it is going to be. Power when it exists only in its repressive form either terminates the relationship of power by annihilating the other quickly, or, due to its linear and centralized nature opens itself up to be more easily fought against and defeated.
When Chris Hedges talks about "inverted totalitarianism", I think this is what he really means: power that is cunning and that imposes a habitus that makes use of people's will in order to make them less free, in the sense that it makes them more simple and habitual creatures that are unable to resist -- all of which happens without requiring coercion or threats. This is the power that we ought to think more about rather than the sovereign or disciplinary kind and which I believe really is the "prime mover" today and what makes neoliberalism so powerful.
fuck I should just sell some of my Pokemon cards, if no one stakes that is what I will have to do - lostaccount
Socialist criticizing capitalism because in the REAL WORLD the system doesnt work.
My endorsements of murderous dictators can change at any time without any notice, can't pin me on them, this is true progressive poltics.
Power cannot be won through violence.
And finally... Chavez was not an authoritarian, also Kimg Jong Un has a perfect 100% approval rate, people love him so much they hung pictures of him in their homes, perfect democracy.
We have reached peak clown world on this forum LOL.
~3
+
~4
(My estimate of the number of calories that you have burned while thinking about the creation of that meme, followed by my estimate for thinking up those 5 lines of text consisting of straw men that you believe constitute some kind of "response" to my nuanced critiques of the things you wrote.)
I could not have dreamt up a more validating response to my claim that you have low standards for yourself. Baal's thinking is equivalent to Homer Simpson's running.
fuck I should just sell some of my Pokemon cards, if no one stakes that is what I will have to do - lostaccount
Fair studies but it doesn't extrapolate down to a superspread within an entire country -> overloading the healthcare system -> causing more deaths (not corona related only either). Thats what the measures are meant to prevent and it seems that they're doing it well.
And then he says he doesn't know how far the spread would potentially go, which is the most important part imo, its the biggest uncertainty that causes this. The problem is that we don't even know if you can get immune to it, thus you could have it circulating into society until a vaccine is out
If its less deadly then it is more virulent, the danger remains the same, once you've seen its effects on a population R0 and mortality are less useful for projections besides calculating potential heard immunity timing and I suppose individually if you get symptoms is less scary.
On May 05 2020 15:25 Spitfiree wrote:
Fair studies but it doesn't extrapolate down to a superspread within an entire country -> overloading the healthcare system -> causing more deaths (not corona related only either). Thats what the measures are meant to prevent and it seems that they're doing it well.
And then he says he doesn't know how far the spread would potentially go, which is the most important part imo, its the biggest uncertainty that causes this. The problem is that we don't even know if you can get immune to it, thus you could have it circulating into society until a vaccine is out
it does seem to be very contagious and even if it only kills a small subset of people the sheer number would definitely overwhelm government hospitals and private ones. the medical bill alone is also a fucking disaster in and of itself which is what i really feel is going a problem for most. unless a real cure is figured out and doesn't cost your life savings to get it this is really going to suck
The thing that bothers me the most is that there is literally zero evidence we have that supports that we build immunity towards the virus yet herd immunity was a strategy that was used.
On May 06 2020 21:12 Spitfiree wrote:
The thing that bothers me the most is that there is literally zero evidence we have that supports that we build immunity towards the virus yet herd immunity was a strategy that was used.
Wrong, we have tested immunity against other human coronaviruses and we do build up immunity, in some cases reinfection after over a year can accur but the effects are much milder.
Also the fact we build immunity to every other virus (a vital part of our immune system) is evidence that points towards immunity, about using that strategy at the infection rates it seems like its likely it will happen before we have a vaccine ready.
Please link me any research showing that we have evidence of obtaining COVID-19 immunity, there istn one
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YoMeR United States. May 25 2020 20:37. Posts 12435
Spitfiree is right. There isn't a clear cut evidence of immunity of people who was infected towards covid 19 yet...but as baal said it's safe to presume immunity once someone had it previously because of all the past evidence with other similar kinds of coronaviruses. At least that's the majority consensus among medical professionals at the moment.
Since this is a novel virus the science is ongoing as more and more breakthroughs are done
On May 25 2020 19:37 YoMeR wrote:
Spitfiree is right. There isn't a clear cut evidence of immunity of people who was infected towards covid 19 yet...but as baal said it's safe to presume immunity once someone had it previously because of all the past evidence with other similar kinds of coronaviruses. At least that's the majority consensus among medical professionals at the moment.
Since this is a novel virus the science is ongoing as more and more breakthroughs are done
It's a fair assumption, but not to be taken action upon. If immunity is indeed obtained, we need to have a good understanding of how long it will last. Previous epidemics with coronavirus strains e.g. SARS in China/South Korea have proven to only gain an immunity for a few years (cba searching for the actual paper but it was either 2 or 4 years). Why does this matter?
It's very likely that unless we find a vaccine coronavirus will not die out and will be circling around for years. The lack of evidence for immunity half a year into the pandemic is very concerning to say the least
I'd say the fact that we have no evidence of immunity and the fact that we have multiple cases in multiple places around the world of people getting infected twice most likely means at least not everyone can gain an immunity, if immunity is even possible.
On May 25 2020 19:37 YoMeR wrote:
Spitfiree is right. There isn't a clear cut evidence of immunity of people who was infected towards covid 19 yet...but as baal said it's safe to presume immunity once someone had it previously because of all the past evidence with other similar kinds of coronaviruses. At least that's the majority consensus among medical professionals at the moment.
Since this is a novel virus the science is ongoing as more and more breakthroughs are done
It's a fair assumption, but not to be taken action upon. If immunity is indeed obtained, we need to have a good understanding of how long it will last. Previous epidemics with coronavirus strains e.g. SARS in China/South Korea have proven to only gain an immunity for a few years (cba searching for the actual paper but it was either 2 or 4 years). Why does this matter?
It's very likely that unless we find a vaccine coronavirus will not die out and will be circling around for years. The lack of evidence for immunity half a year into the pandemic is very concerning to say the least
I'd say the fact that we have no evidence of immunity and the fact that we have multiple cases in multiple places around the world of people getting infected twice most likely means at least not everyone can gain an immunity, if immunity is even possible.
It depends I think you are channeling a bit of Taleb's refusal to price his hedges here.
You dont need 100% certainty to make moves, you take risks in proportions to the certanty of something, we should make big bets with little certanty but developing immunity to this virus is definitelly above the 90% likelyhood and possibly much higher and based on that we can take action.
You are confusing personal immunity to a virus with a the "heard immunity strategy" these aren't related at all, personal immunity to SARS-COV-2 is extremely likely, that doesn't make infecting everyone a good strat.
On May 26 2020 02:24 Baalim wrote:
You are confusing personal immunity to a virus with a the "heard immunity strategy" these aren't related at all, personal immunity to SARS-COV-2 is extremely likely, that doesn't make infecting everyone a good strat.
I'm not suggesting we go all out and go for herd immunity, I'm simply assuming that if the immunity doesn't last long enough until the entire cycle is done, then the cycle will never be done and the virus will keep spreading infinitely until a vaccine is done
On May 26 2020 02:24 Baalim wrote:
You are confusing personal immunity to a virus with a the "heard immunity strategy" these aren't related at all, personal immunity to SARS-COV-2 is extremely likely, that doesn't make infecting everyone a good strat.
I'm not suggesting we go all out and go for herd immunity, I'm simply assuming that if the immunity doesn't last long enough until the entire cycle is done, then the cycle will never be done and the virus will keep spreading infinitely until a vaccine is done
The article i read about other immunity tests about human coronaviruses 3/4 gained immunity of at least 2 years (when they attempted re-infection), and 1/4 got reinfected but the virus was virtually asymptomatic and wasn't remotely as powerful as the 1st infection.
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YoMeR United States. May 28 2020 23:21. Posts 12435
There's quite a few medical professionals mentioning that there's been links to how severe you were sick before can also be a factor in a person's immunity towards the virus as well...Basically pointing out that there's too many variables that can determine one's immunity to this disease.
At this point it's pretty pointless to make assumptions without additional data. All the clear concise data we have for other viruses are there because they had years and years to research. The process can't be done at "warp speed" as in Trump's words lol
As baal said we gotta make bets on some things that don't have a 100% degree certainty. It's not like we can lock up the economy for years as that's not a sustainable strategy.
I believe out of all the shitty options laid out for us herd immunity is definitely a reasonable/inevitable (in many epidemiologist's eyes) choice.
Also the irrational fear towards this disease by many I feel is very hurtful to our society as well. (as an asian i've had my fair share of racism towards me but it has definitely ramped up over the past few months. I believe racially motivated hate crimes is up quite a bit across the board) The real fear initially in the United states was what happened in some parts of Italy/spain etc where Hospitals was so overwhelmed that people who needed critical care many of whom were not covid related could not receive it. Causing many extra deaths.
That fear is mostly gone for many parts of the united states at least. As production and stockpiles are ramping up. The threat of hospitals being overwhelmed in many metro areas is past...so now it's about managing the slow burn to make sure that the ppl that do get really sick can get the care they need. Very difficult to make this point to some people as all you see on the mainstream news is piles of dead bodies and ppl suffering from the disease.
It's just a situation where there are no 'good' options and thats why everyone sucks at taking decisions. You also can't really take 'the least hurtful' option either since there's not enough data to make a claim. It takes strong leadership skills to do this which the USA currently lacks heavily.
Simple observations from countries like Germany where the virus did spread quite a lot, but the situation was still contained, point out that the way to go is by implementing preventative measures like:
- mass testing, including thinking in terms of improving the quantity while staying with the same efficiency
- wear masks everywhere
- minimize social interactions, but do not disallow anything
- have a real plan of action for all scenarios, even if the actions are not a 100% correct
There are still idiots that will whine and cry about their rights being taken away, but there will be no chaos. Everyone will know that there is a plan and that the government is trying to handle the situation. Businesses still ended up being quite hurt, yet they have an approach to handle that as well.
Lufthansa got bailed out.... except they didn't shove down money in a drain. They gave them money and bought a percentage of the company, meaning they have the say of how the company will be operated. It's not the first time, nor the last time this will happen and in a few years time the government will sell all the shares back to the shareholders and leave the company be 100% private again. Something like this will never happen in the USA cause people will shout " socialism" and "Russia". Americans prefer that their money go down a drain with no supervision whatsoever, simply so that the same thing happens in a few years time.
Iran is digging mass graves so big they can be seen from fucking space...
all we have to do now is to be careful and maintain good hygiene, boost our immune system to avoid this fucking Covid Virus. Hope It will disappear very soon.
On May 26 2020 02:24 Baalim wrote:
You are confusing personal immunity to a virus with a the "heard immunity strategy" these aren't related at all, personal immunity to SARS-COV-2 is extremely likely, that doesn't make infecting everyone a good strat.
I'm not suggesting we go all out and go for herd immunity, I'm simply assuming that if the immunity doesn't last long enough until the entire cycle is done, then the cycle will never be done and the virus will keep spreading infinitely until a vaccine is done
The article i read about other immunity tests about human coronaviruses 3/4 gained immunity of at least 2 years (when they attempted re-infection), and 1/4 got reinfected but the virus was virtually asymptomatic and wasn't remotely as powerful as the 1st infection.
And this is why you can't make assumptions on COVID-19 based on other coronaviruses. Its a small excerpt but it's quite concerning. Good news is they did find a somewhat working treatment though for around 20% of the patients with dexamethasone
Also I'm sure you all already seen this, but asymptomatic people also experience lung damage.
Edit: Important to note that even though the antibodies disappear, the organism should still be responding faster and better if it gets infected again
damn if no one else will I'll just give myself some props for calling everything
worldwide deaths is at 1 million, not 100 million. Even the highest rank doomsday priests aren't that worried anymore
vanguard international ETF is already at an all time high. Now is a better time to sell I'd say especially if you're holding USA stocks which seem to be pretty detached from reality. The USA did suffer real damage and the stock market seems to have already forgotten about it.
Just literally giving away potential billions here with my expert meta-analysis of previous disasters you're welcome guys don't even mention it :D
GroT
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blackjacki2 United States. Oct 11 2020 21:33. Posts 2581
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PuertoRican United States. Oct 11 2020 21:37. Posts 13044
On October 11 2020 11:54 Jelle wrote:
damn if no one else will I'll just give myself some props for calling everything
worldwide deaths is at 1 million, not 100 million. Even the highest rank doomsday priests aren't that worried anymore
vanguard international ETF is already at an all time high. Now is a better time to sell I'd say especially if you're holding USA stocks which seem to be pretty detached from reality. The USA did suffer real damage and the stock market seems to have already forgotten about it.
Just literally giving away potential billions here with my expert meta-analysis of previous disasters you're welcome guys don't even mention it :D
This pandemic has allowed me to get some amazing deals in Las Vegas during the past 4+ months.
I'm going to miss the cheap airfare when things go back to normal.
PuertoRican United States. Oct 13 2020 01:23. Posts 13044
On October 12 2020 10:19 captainhook wrote:
Covid could be both real and a hoax.
I think Covid is real, but overblown.
As for USA, there were many deaths during the past 7 months that were ruled as Covid-related, even though many of those people didn't die due to Covid-related complications.
That whole thing about hospitals using various methods in order to get more money by using ventilators and saying someone has Covid when they don't really have it, is pretty sickening as well. This helped spike the amount of infected people.
On October 12 2020 10:19 captainhook wrote:
Covid could be both real and a hoax.
I think Covid is real, but overblown.
As for USA, there were many deaths during the past 7 months that were ruled as Covid-related, even though many of those people didn't die due to Covid-related complications.
That whole thing about hospitals using various methods in order to get more money by using ventilators and saying someone has Covid when they don't really have it, is pretty sickening as well. This helped spike the amount of infected people.
Hopefully we get back to normal in early 2021.
What a stupid take, just read the excess deaths for each month ffs.
"Only 1M have died" yeah after the biggest mitigation effort for a disease in fucking history, nearly 4 billion people were on simultenous lockdown at one point so we stopped the logarithmic growth, how this isn't obvious to poker players who deal with statistics graphs and that kind of info often is beyond me.
I can see the 'uh oh hospitals lie about covid diagnosis to get money' narrative is not only popular in shitholes in Eastern Europe but also the US.
The thing is, we are not prepared for pandemics and I don't think we ever will be. We're lucky is not an extremely deadly virus. That being said the logarithmic increase is continuing even after all the efforts everywhere around the world to prevent it and with China not reporting real data (considering they are around 1/6th of the Worlds population you could see how that matters)
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blackjacki2 United States. Oct 14 2020 00:31. Posts 2581
Not all deaths should be treated equally. Here's a couple things I've heard that people should keep in mind: 1) The average age that people die of COVID is older than the average age that people die. 2) 40% of the deaths from COVID (here in the US) came from people living in nursing homes.
Regarding nursing homes - If you look up life expectancy of people that live in nursing homes, it's somewhere in the range of 2 years. 30%~ of the people that move to a nursing home die within the first 6 months. While it's certainly tragic that COVID has created a holocaust among this demographic, you have to realize that most of these people would be dead within 5 years regardless. In fact there should be fewer people dying in this demographic over the next few years because all of the people that were supposed to die next year or 2 years from now will have already been killed by COVID. I imagine that 10 years from now most of the people that COVID killed would have died regardless so the "excess death" will even out to nothing more than a rounding error. Only 3% of the deaths are of people aged <45 and the large majority are of people 70+. Unfortunately we can't live forever. Everyone needs to do their best to socially distance and wear masks, but the lockdowns of entire economies has been a stupid policy which is why the WHO just came out against it.
I agree, complete lockdowns are absolutely terrible policies. Making masks an absolute requirement in any space with a centralization of people e.g. public transport, stores, institutions, parks (for some reason those are not enforced in outdoor places as if the virus only spreads indoors) etc. should be sufficient - with massive financial sanctions to shitters that don't follow the restrictions. In a combination with sanitization measures for all of these places the curve's increase should be stopped by quite a bit.
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blackjacki2 United States. Oct 15 2020 00:22. Posts 2581
There's evidence to suggest that transmission of the virus while outdoors is quite unlikely. I go on a lot of hikes and almost everyone is wearing masks for no reason. Thinking you're going to catch COVID from walking past someone outdoors for 1 second makes about as much sense as believing you're going to suffocate because all the oxygen molecules move away from your nose. If you can't socially distance while outdoors then certainly you should wear a mask but personally I wouldn't visit a park that was so crowded I couldn't stay away from other people.
On October 13 2020 23:31 blackjacki2 wrote:
Not all deaths should be treated equally. Here's a couple things I've heard that people should keep in mind: 1) The average age that people die of COVID is older than the average age that people die. 2) 40% of the deaths from COVID (here in the US) came from people living in nursing homes.
Regarding nursing homes - If you look up life expectancy of people that live in nursing homes, it's somewhere in the range of 2 years. 30%~ of the people that move to a nursing home die within the first 6 months. While it's certainly tragic that COVID has created a holocaust among this demographic, you have to realize that most of these people would be dead within 5 years regardless. In fact there should be fewer people dying in this demographic over the next few years because all of the people that were supposed to die next year or 2 years from now will have already been killed by COVID. I imagine that 10 years from now most of the people that COVID killed would have died regardless so the "excess death" will even out to nothing more than a rounding error. Only 3% of the deaths are of people aged <45 and the large majority are of people 70+. Unfortunately we can't live forever. Everyone needs to do their best to socially distance and wear masks, but the lockdowns of entire economies has been a stupid policy which is why the WHO just came out against it.
Ahh another player who doesn't understand probability and with a bonus "fuck old people" argument as bonus, great.
Lockdowns aren't neccesary if a country reacts properly like Taiwan, Sinapore, Korea, Japan did, if you fuck up and underreact then you need lockdowns if they can be shortish like in China, if double fuck up and can't even manage to lockdown then you require country-wide 6 month long lockdowns or you will be bulldozing millions of grandparents rotting corpses of the streets dumped in mass graves.
Its just another example of the state being incompetent and inefficient while dealing with any sort of problem, something anybody with half a brain should know by now.
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Last edit: 15/10/2020 03:24
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blackjacki2 United States. Oct 15 2020 04:00. Posts 2581
On October 13 2020 23:31 blackjacki2 wrote:
Not all deaths should be treated equally. Here's a couple things I've heard that people should keep in mind: 1) The average age that people die of COVID is older than the average age that people die. 2) 40% of the deaths from COVID (here in the US) came from people living in nursing homes.
Regarding nursing homes - If you look up life expectancy of people that live in nursing homes, it's somewhere in the range of 2 years. 30%~ of the people that move to a nursing home die within the first 6 months. While it's certainly tragic that COVID has created a holocaust among this demographic, you have to realize that most of these people would be dead within 5 years regardless. In fact there should be fewer people dying in this demographic over the next few years because all of the people that were supposed to die next year or 2 years from now will have already been killed by COVID. I imagine that 10 years from now most of the people that COVID killed would have died regardless so the "excess death" will even out to nothing more than a rounding error. Only 3% of the deaths are of people aged <45 and the large majority are of people 70+. Unfortunately we can't live forever. Everyone needs to do their best to socially distance and wear masks, but the lockdowns of entire economies has been a stupid policy which is why the WHO just came out against it.
Ahh another player who doesn't understand probability and with a bonus "fuck old people" argument as bonus, great.
Lockdowns aren't neccesary if a country reacts properly like Taiwan, Sinapore, Korea, Japan did, if you fuck up and underreact then you need lockdowns if they can be shortish like in China, if double fuck up and can't even manage to lockdown then you require country-wide 6 month long lockdowns or you will be bulldozing millions of grandparents rotting corpses of the streets dumped in mass graves.
Its just another example of the state being incompetent and inefficient while dealing with any sort of problem, something anybody with half a brain should know by now.
What part of my post doesn't mesh with your understanding of probability?
The idea that any country would need to lockdown for 6 months is ludicrous. A 1 month lockdown, 2 at the most, should sufficiently bring down cases. As the WHO said, lockdowns should be used for reorganization and regrouping and essentially as a last resort. They should not be used as a primary method of containment and after 2 months of lockdown the active cases would be sufficiently low enough that to continue them further is just trying to contain the virus which is better done with masks and social distancing.
lol baal, I live in Japan and naming us as an argument against blackjack2 made me lol irl. It's the go-to example to support blackjack2's claims and refute yours. What about Japan's reaction to covid impressed you specifically?
also where did blackjack2 say that governments are competent and efficient at dealing with problems? Or were you just randomly throwing that out there?
I'm also curious what egregious probability error blackjack2 specifically made?
Finally, on the "fuck old people argument", is that a matter principle for you or do you draw the line somewhere? e.g. imagine some ridiculous extreme like OLDVID-99 which only kills people that are 99 years old and on average will live for a few more days. blackjack2 makes the "fuck old people" argument (your wording not his). Do you still dismiss it, or do you start to consider it?
On October 15 2020 03:00 blackjacki2 wrote:
What part of my post doesn't mesh with your understanding of probability?
The idea that any country would need to lockdown for 6 months is ludicrous. A 1 month lockdown, 2 at the most, should sufficiently bring down cases. As the WHO said, lockdowns should be used for reorganization and regrouping and essentially as a last resort. They should not be used as a primary method of containment and after 2 months of lockdown the active cases would be sufficiently low enough that to continue them further is just trying to contain the virus which is better done with masks and social distancing.
The fact that you mentioned that the avg age of COVID death is higher than the avg lifespan, as if I wen't on a senior killing rampage and if my average is 79yo then what I"m doing is somehow ok or less bad, you are either not quite grasping how meaningless that stats is or you have awful views on the value of the lives of elders.
I agree 6 month country-wide lockdown is crazy and its the result of underreacting in many instances of this pandemic, late closing borders, little testing, low and late usage of masks, no contact tracing, no localized lockdowns, soft lockdowns etc, the ironic part is that you bitch about these long lockdowns yet minimize the impact of using a mask, yes the "returns" of wearing a mask diminishes the lest risky your sorrounding is, but there is little to no downside to using it, why does that even bother you?.
On October 15 2020 05:41 Jelle wrote:
lol baal, I live in Japan and naming us as an argument against blackjack2 made me lol irl. It's the go-to example to support blackjack2's claims and refute yours. What about Japan's reaction to covid impressed you specifically?
also where did blackjack2 say that governments are competent and efficient at dealing with problems? Or were you just randomly throwing that out there?
I'm also curious what egregious probability error blackjack2 specifically made?
Finally, on the "fuck old people argument", is that a matter principle for you or do you draw the line somewhere? e.g. imagine some ridiculous extreme like OLDVID-99 which only kills people that are 99 years old and on average will live for a few more days. blackjack2 makes the "fuck old people" argument (your wording not his). Do you still dismiss it, or do you start to consider it?
Nothing impressive about Japan's response, Korea and Taiwan are what I'd consider the blueprints for a good response, Japans success was due to natural cultural social distancing, early widespread use of mask and closing borders, no country in the west did that, hence the results. Also this isnt due to your governments working better, its mostly due to the fact that the east of Asia has suffered many pandemic-scares (ergo the common use of face masks).
Are you asking me at what age does a life start to lose value? you realize this is an unanswerable trolley dilemma question right? My dad is in his late 60s and has some immune system problems and COVID would certanly kill him, so no, I dont think his life is less valuable and I don't want to spouse arguments that lead to a response that would cost the lives of millions of people like my dad.
Ex-PokerStars Team Pro Online
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blackjacki2 United States. Oct 15 2020 07:50. Posts 2581
On October 15 2020 03:00 blackjacki2 wrote:
What part of my post doesn't mesh with your understanding of probability?
The idea that any country would need to lockdown for 6 months is ludicrous. A 1 month lockdown, 2 at the most, should sufficiently bring down cases. As the WHO said, lockdowns should be used for reorganization and regrouping and essentially as a last resort. They should not be used as a primary method of containment and after 2 months of lockdown the active cases would be sufficiently low enough that to continue them further is just trying to contain the virus which is better done with masks and social distancing.
The fact that you mentioned that the avg age of COVID death is higher than the avg lifespan, as if I wen't on a senior killing rampage and if my average is 79yo then what I"m doing is somehow ok or less bad, you are either not quite grasping how meaningless that stats is or you have awful views on the value of the lives of elders.
I agree 6 month country-wide lockdown is crazy and its the result of underreacting in many instances of this pandemic, late closing borders, little testing, low and late usage of masks, no contact tracing, no localized lockdowns, soft lockdowns etc, the ironic part is that you bitch about these long lockdowns yet minimize the impact of using a mask, yes the "returns" of wearing a mask diminishes the lest risky your sorrounding is, but there is little to no downside to using it, why does that even bother you?.
Well u can make a case that I'm displaying a "fuck old people" attitude but that has nothing to do with probability.
Also I would say COVID killing mostly people in nursing homes instead of young adults is obviously "less bad." How can that even be argued?
Regarding masks - the only thing I said about masks is they are a better strategy to contain the virus than lockdowns which no reasonable person would interpret as me minimizing mask use so I will just assume you misread my post.
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Stroggoz New Zealand. Oct 15 2020 07:59. Posts 5296
The 'state inefficiency' statement while mentioning korea/taiwan, ect, in the same sentence is an interesting display of compartmentilization. Baal you realize that compared to the west Korea has a very cooperative private/public sector. I.e they don't just dismiss making testing kits because of it's unprofitability, the private sector does actually listen to what the government says in Korea, unlike in the west where the sole human value is profit. Mass survellience was a useful tool in South Korea for the pandemic as well
And yeah, if lockdown's happen they don't need to be longer than a month, NZ crushed it in 3 weeks of lockdown. Although we wern't prepared with things like tracer apps, ect. You can justify a lockdown imo if your society hasn't bothered preparing for a pandemic. Otherwise just do what Korea did. Possibly in the near future mass surviellience will be sophisticated enough to deal with pandemics like this one without having to disrupt the economy in any major way.
I also agree that young people's lives are worth more than old people, unless they are like 2week old newborns. Probably 5-10 years old is peak value. Doesn't really change anything though.
One of 3 non decent human beings on a site of 5 people with between 2-3 decent human beings
OK I think that helps to understand your point of view. If you feel that every life is truly equally valuable then we can stop wasting time citing stats about who exactly covid kills because it's just not relevant to you.
maybe he's guessing that children 5-10 have the longest life expectancy
GroT
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Stroggoz New Zealand. Oct 15 2020 11:40. Posts 5296
No, people who have just been born have the longest life expectancy. Do you like how i am being intentionally obtuse?
10 year olds have the lowest death probability, 0.0001%? It steadily decreases from ages 0-10, then starts increasing again after that. This would a much bigger thing if we were living pre 1850 before the theory of germs was confirmed, plumbing, ect.
Can come up with some other reasons though. Apparently if your 119 years old you have an 89% chance of dying before your 120, (small sample size). So i'd say a 10 year old's life is roughly 10,000 times more valueable than a 119 year old. Baals dad has something like 2.1% chance of dying this year~, so he's something like halfway between a 10 year old and a 119 year old in terms of value.
LoL.
In all seriousness though, numbers do matter. I don't really know much about bioethics and all that but the medical profession has a lot of numerical utilitarian arguments that they apply routinely when they have to make tough trolley-problem like decisions.
Also trolley problems are the gold standard of moral psychology, they were originally developed to study the structure of people's moral intuitions under an idealized setting. So they are designed specifically to have answers.
One of 3 non decent human beings on a site of 5 people with between 2-3 decent human beings
That logic sounds reasonable if all other factors are equal
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Stroggoz New Zealand. Oct 15 2020 13:26. Posts 5296
On October 15 2020 11:59 Spitfiree wrote:
That logic sounds reasonable if all other factors are equal
wtf, you give in too easily. I was only being half serious with my post. I'm sure there's a lot of holes in my argument. I usually intentionally make half bad arguments these days just to see which criticisms people will come up with
One of 3 non decent human beings on a site of 5 people with between 2-3 decent human beings
On October 15 2020 11:59 Spitfiree wrote:
That logic sounds reasonable if all other factors are equal
wtf, you give in too easily. I was only being half serious with my post. I'm sure there's a lot of holes in my argument. I usually intentionally make half bad arguments these days just to see which criticisms people will come up with
lol i love that
loving the stats too but leave baal's dad out of this plz
On October 15 2020 11:59 Spitfiree wrote:
That logic sounds reasonable if all other factors are equal
wtf, you give in too easily. I was only being half serious with my post. I'm sure there's a lot of holes in my argument. I usually intentionally make half bad arguments these days just to see which criticisms people will come up with
I mean there are but my logic would also have holes and I don't have enough time for a productive discussion so might as well leave it there. And measuring a person's value based on age is one of the most reasonable measures out there on both social and biological levels. The topic of a person's value is as old as our species so...
On October 15 2020 06:59 Stroggoz wrote:
The 'state inefficiency' statement while mentioning korea/taiwan, ect, in the same sentence is an interesting display of compartmentilization. Baal you realize that compared to the west Korea has a very cooperative private/public sector. I.e they don't just dismiss making testing kits because of it's unprofitability, the private sector does actually listen to what the government says in Korea, unlike in the west where the sole human value is profit. Mass survellience was a useful tool in South Korea for the pandemic as well
And yeah, if lockdown's happen they don't need to be longer than a month, NZ crushed it in 3 weeks of lockdown. Although we wern't prepared with things like tracer apps, ect. You can justify a lockdown imo if your society hasn't bothered preparing for a pandemic. Otherwise just do what Korea did. Possibly in the near future mass surviellience will be sophisticated enough to deal with pandemics like this one without having to disrupt the economy in any major way.
I also agree that young people's lives are worth more than old people, unless they are like 2week old newborns. Probably 5-10 years old is peak value. Doesn't really change anything though.
So your argument is that government were efficient, but it was the private sector lack of cooperation that ruined things, and thats why Korea and Taiwan succeeded? oh boy, I'm going to have a field day on this one, but please clarify so I dont waste my time.
On October 15 2020 20:44 Spitfiree wrote:
And measuring a person's value based on age is one of the most reasonable measures out there on both social and biological levels. The topic of a person's value is as old as our species so...
Yeah we all intuitively know that the life of a 100yo is less valuable than the life of a 30yo, but its trolley dilema area, where hard quantifiable human life leads to absurdity, if the life of a young man is worth more than an old one, what about 1 young life vs 2 old lives? what about 3 old lives or 1,000?.
Sure, as Stroggoz mentions sometimes these questions need a quantifiable answer, like recently triage in Italy where they left old ppl to die to save ventilators to young ppl, or when designing driving AI to see if it would serve into a baby stroller or an old man etc, but the point is that quantifying the vlaue of human life is a difficult subject with eugenic undertones, so it often ends up with retarded ugly arguments about how the pandemic wasn't thtat bad because it killed mostly old people since they are less valuable.
Its a bit like the topic of race and IQ... ok sure we can discuss it, but it better be a good point because we all know where this is going.
TBF it didn't sound like that was your point at all, it sounds like you were saying life is of exactly equal value regardless of age and now you dramatically changed your position
You guys are making the mistake of only seeing from a state's perspective (and only one specific type of state), and assuming that this gives you some kind of objective lens through which to see human life and value. It doesn't. You're also making a leap of logic that you can't justify: just because, in a situation of scarcity, some decisions have to be made about who gets saved, it doesn't mean that it says anything about intrinsic value, or what can be universalized about the value of human life based on numbers.
The main problem with thinking of it as a trolley problem is that trolley problems are non-dynamic and the scarcity is unalterable. They are purely exercises of the imagination stripped of complexity that demand that we absolutely choose an option or another. A state is a dynamic entity, which can be influenced by its citizens if it has a functioning democracy. (And when the democracy is failing, people can organize themselves and contributed to solving things independently of the state). So in the situation of a pandemic, the issue of "needing to kill some people so that others live" only arises because of specific socio-economic reasons that are entirely man-made, and what is man-made is changeable. More money and efforts could have been invested in protecting against pandemics, and more money and efforts could have been invested to mitigate it. Of course, we understand the difficulty of this in a neoliberal society because the logic of neoliberalism elevates short-term profits and private accumulation above everything else, which leads to a society ruled by artificial scarcity and greed, and it has also atomized its citizens to a point where political actions pressuring the government successfully seem like wishful thinking. But that's not some unalterable law of nature. If you can't see these things and take them into account in your analysis then you are the perfect subject that can be hijacked by a totalitarian regime that supports eugenics.
The value of life can obviously not be quantified based on age. In a trolley or desert island scenario, you would not always save the youngest person. You would want to know things about the people themselves. If someone is twice your age, but he's extremely altruistic, contributes to his community, is a world-traveler and a great storyteller who has many skills, you'd value his life more than someone who is younger than you and who has spent the last 10 years of his life bumming around, hating life, being addicted to drugs and social media. And if you were on a deserted island, you'd much prefer being with someone you enjoy being with and who can help you rather than someone who is younger. You'd sooner feed the youngest person to the sharks because they spend their time being entitled and complaining that they have no internet and can't go on TikTok because age is just not such a relevant factor. And you wouldn't think "oh damn I feel so guilty because the objectively right thing to do was obviously to save the young person, they had so much more to look forward to!" either.
fuck I should just sell some of my Pokemon cards, if no one stakes that is what I will have to do - lostaccount
Last edit: 17/10/2020 10:04
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Stroggoz New Zealand. Oct 17 2020 12:11. Posts 5296
Uh, i value the life of younger people over older people though. This is not an empirical disagreement, it's a value judgement. You can try to persuade me that i shouldn't but i've already taken most of these criticisms into account. It is also not incongruous with my support of the UN declaration of human rights nor attempts by states to protect the old as much as they can during covid (within reasonable limits).
States are pretty neutral on this-the factor of age, but where i am they care a little more about old people than young people, since old people vote, and make more political contributions to parties. You can see this in youth unemployment rates and pensions. It's not a big difference though, and this is all coincidental. I don't think it differs much between dictatorships and oligarchies. So we are not taking the perspective of the state. Also spitfire said 'all other factors remaining equal', he was clearly factoring out placing value on people for being tiktok users or altruists-and meant that value would change once those dynamics are factored in, althought i'm pretty sure he meant something a bit more serious than being a tiktok user.
Eugenics can be done in a liberal way. You can have the state give a monetary incentive for genetically inferior people not to breed rather than just being genocidal. This is a far quicker method for acheiving better genetics as a species than slowly waiting for women to weed out the weak ones over thousands or millions of years.
I have pretty interesting convo's with young people especially around ages 8-12. It saddens me that a lot of them spend all their free time playing video games though, i generally like kids quite a lot because they are always more interested in learning things. i'd kill dneg's over chomsky for sure, if it was an island i had to spend time on. The scenario you presented is not one that would influence my decision though. Not sure why you gave that example when you can easily come up with better ones. Bratty teenagers almost always grow out of their personal failings.
One of 3 non decent human beings on a site of 5 people with between 2-3 decent human beings
All things being equal, all human lives have the same objective value, because humans value their own lives similarly, unless suicidal. As soon as you introduce duration or some other thing as a criterion you have to justify it, and it's a mere personal value judgment when you're not taking into account the survival of the society. You have to argue why, for instance, duration would be better than intensity or contribution. People never have the same value to the state, or the same value to you. But here it was basically universalized and taken for granted that duration ought to be central to measuring the actual value of a person rather than his or her use-value (from a personal or state perspective). I wasn't referring to you believing it can be universalized, I was just pointing this out because no one else did, but it was clearly implied by others.
Killing old people in overcrowded hospitals during the pandemic is not done because they have less value in and of themselves; it's done because it's economically/politically logical. It is "seeing like a state" because the state upholds private property and artificial scarcity and tries to reproduce itself above all. Younger people are more suited to reproduce society's structures, even if they vote less. They will produce, consume and procreate more. Secondly, when you use the state's perspective as a centrist or right-winger then it is taken for granted that they would not change the structures of society and they would not take money from the billionaire class in order to help the average person. Respecting the right of the billionaire to his billions and therefore killing the old people is the right thing to do. My point was that this lens with which the centrist/right-winger sees objective value is erroneous, because that should not be granted. It has to be argued for. It's not a trolley problem, because it's not fixed in advance. If the billionaire class had seriously invested in preventing pandemics, or if every dollar they had made since the pandemic began had went to the public in order to mitigate its impacts, we would not even be having this conversation. We can have these abstract moral debates, but we shouldn't depoliticize them.
And it seems to me that all things cannot even be equal between the young and the old. They have accumulated different experiences and can contribute drastically different things based on ability, background, and the different pressures they face(d) generationally.
The kids you like more because they seem more curious will grow old too, they won't remain kids. All things being equal, the system will take that out of them like it did with the older people. So why would that factor in your decision? I think you'd have to think that there is something specific about this generation that will produce better people/people you like more into late adulthood in order to value them more than the actual late adults who are already here. I think your concern about excessive video games and social media usage should hint at being more pessimistic about the future of intellectualism. This is not merely something people "will grow out of," they are a cultural phenomenon, and they don't just structure the lives of kids and teens, it's widespread among adults too, just like excessive drug use.
And yes, my post wasn't implying that only conventional totalitarian regimes can use eugenics.
fuck I should just sell some of my Pokemon cards, if no one stakes that is what I will have to do - lostaccount
Last edit: 17/10/2020 16:29
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blackjacki2 United States. Oct 17 2020 23:39. Posts 2581
We always have the option to exchange wealth for saving lives or delaying deaths. We could shut the country down every flu season from December to March in the same manner that we did this spring. Just create a UBI for those months from a tax on the billionaire class. Thousands and thousands of lives would be saved. It's really quite idiotic that we haven't been doing this already. The best part about having a billionaire class is that their wealth is the solution to every problem.
I wasn't even thinking about specifics there, simply because the definition of one's worth is a problematic topic by itself. The fact that tiktokers were brought as an argument is the very reason I don't even want to dive into this, since tiktokers are considered valuable by millions of people due to their entertainment. It's easy to dismiss their "contribution" as useless, but the fact is we need entertainment. (Don't get me wrong I'd shut that shit down if it were up to me, but fortunately, we're not aiming to build a dystopic dictatorship society)
So how do you define one's worth? Are we going with an elitist academic definition of who is smarter and/or will contribute with more knowledge to society or are entertainers also just as valuable? What about musicians - the majority of them are/were heavy drug users or alcoholics and apart of their productions they don't really contribute with anything?
Older people are much more valued in my country by the state as they are used for political purposes, while youth has been protesting for the past 4 months with very solid arguments and nothing happened. I wouldn't say the state values the youth by default, that's simply not true. You could say the same for pretty much every European nation too. Brexit was voted by the older generations for example.
Anyways this topic simply hits a much larger picture, each question leads to a different moral dilemma and they are dependant on each other in many ways
Last edit: 18/10/2020 01:46
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LemOn[5thF] Czech Republic. Oct 25 2020 15:07. Posts 15163
On October 18 2020 00:40 Spitfiree wrote:
I wasn't even thinking about specifics there, simply because the definition of one's worth is a problematic topic by itself. The fact that tiktokers were brought as an argument is the very reason I don't even want to dive into this, since tiktokers are considered valuable by millions of people due to their entertainment. It's easy to dismiss their "contribution" as useless, but the fact is we need entertainment. (Don't get me wrong I'd shut that shit down if it were up to me, but fortunately, we're not aiming to build a dystopic dictatorship society)
So how do you define one's worth? Are we going with an elitist academic definition of who is smarter and/or will contribute with more knowledge to society or are entertainers also just as valuable? What about musicians - the majority of them are/were heavy drug users or alcoholics and apart of their productions they don't really contribute with anything?
Older people are much more valued in my country by the state as they are used for political purposes, while youth has been protesting for the past 4 months with very solid arguments and nothing happened. I wouldn't say the state values the youth by default, that's simply not true. You could say the same for pretty much every European nation too. Brexit was voted by the older generations for example.
Anyways this topic simply hits a much larger picture, each question leads to a different moral dilemma and they are dependant on each other in many ways
From a humanistic/cosmopolitan perspective, the value of a human life escapes the quantifiable. Once we take the perspective of our individual preferences, or a state working with limited resources, then the value of life changes based on the (perceived) instrumental value of individuals/groups that people have.
It's irksome to me that some would think that just because there exists situations where trade-offs must be made in an environment of scarcity, then it says something about those individuals or groups in themselves. So on this debate on who should live during pandemics, older people shouldn't be seen as less valuable, they should be seen as being made less valuable. It's especially important to highlight the distinction when a crisis is political in nature, and could have been prevented or at least managed much better than it was, and the focus is shifted towards the victims and their involuntary sacrifices to ignore it and not learn from it.
The state values productivity above all, regardless of which party is in power. Is there a threshold after which loyalty to one party becomes favored over more productivity, and parties play on that? Maybe. But if you're superficial to capital, you're not valued, i.e. invested in. That doesn't mean you cannot be manipulated to vote against your interests. Old and/or poor people do it all the time. They'll vote for more austerity that will harm them. Just because they are naive and won't protest as much doesn't mean that the state values them over the economic output and future potential contributions of younger generations, i.e. it doesn't mean that the state will invest more in them than in the younger generations, which is what we mean by valuing more in this context.
You have to keep in mind that younger generations can sustain themselves while older ones can't, they are directly dependent on the younger ones and the state. And in places where fertility rates are below replacement and declining, which is a lot of places, it's not hard for me to see that the equation old = burden is made much easier as a result.
fuck I should just sell some of my Pokemon cards, if no one stakes that is what I will have to do - lostaccount
United States. Mar 27 2020 13:55. Posts 8534
