Stroggoz New Zealand. Jul 14 2018 04:42. Posts 5296
well if your interested i'll take action on that offer haha. I would bet against you. Actually not sure how this works since i've never sports bet before, but given the statistics i can see on football win/loss records, i would bet money on croatia winning more than 5% of the time in the final.
edit: it seems you could simply get a better offer from the pro bookies so i doubt this will come to fruition. Still, would be interested. 20:1 seems insane to me, i don't think i'd make that bet unless i had some insane knowledge.
looking at the world cup stats it seems brazil have won 67% of their games and draw/loss at 16% each, and that's including games against average teams in the group stages. they have the highest win-loss ratio of any team. Even to go from 90% to 95% you need to win twice as many games for every game you lose, so yeah, i don't know much about football but looking at the stats it seems giving 20:1 would be crazy to me.
btw before when i used the term bad beat,,,i was using it a bit too liberally. I prob was thinking around 60-40 in my head, like you said it was.
One of 3 non decent human beings on a site of 5 people with between 2-3 decent human beings
Hope it goes to Luca Modric regardless of the outcome tbh, a player shouldnt be awarded the Golden Ball while making up fouls and delaying the game on purpose.
I'll take Croatia winning @ $1 to win $19 up to $100 to win $1,900 (in Bitcoin). Assuming Spitfire or anyone else is trustworthy enough to pay if they lose.
LOL yes, I'll go ahead and bet on my expectations rather than steal a 30x better bet given by bookies, that sounds rational. If you want to give me 1.95 coef for france winning in 90 minutes I'll go ahead and bet all my vechain which is probably like 500$ at this point. I'd want my winnings in vechain as well though
You predict a 95% favorite bet that pays close to even, anyone with half a brain would best most of thei networth, if you aren't liquid you sell all your assets.
Anyone who does not is either an idiot or just talking shit.
1.9 coef = -111 US odds , while what you're asking for is -2000
also lol @ Baal , I'll just comment on the last part. "if you arent liquid you sell all your assets" is a literal oxymoron
I also ended up in the top 0.3% of fifa's predictor game and havent bet a single match - I must be a huge idiot, no ?
Too bad Croatia got cut by the referee - first goal was a dive from Griezmann and there was an offside of Mbappe. Two critical referee mistakes in 30s and the match could've taken a different turn. Overall deserved win and sick efficiency though. Can't believe someone like Giroud was a starter for every match and wins the World Cup though. He has 0 goals and 0 shots on target in the whole WC as a central forward, that is fucking absurd. I'm guessing their 2nd goalkeeper would've done a better job as a CF than him
Yeah was an entertaining game, I could feel the croatians frustration with the referee as well. That thing about Giroud, is must be a tactic, maybe just distraction to give way to the real threats like Mbappe and Griezmann? Otherwise it's fucking ridiculous.
No, It's just that their better CF - Benzema isn't playing for the national team after blackmailing someone from the team cause he had pictures of him fucking a prostitute or some shit like that. He blackmailed him for 100k euro, which is fucking absurd considering he makes that much a week, if not more. The trial is still ongoing but he got booted out of the squad a while back.
Giroud is an absolute disgrace, it's not that he's not trying to score, he just cant.
Giroud being a fail shows what huge tactical beasts France are.
Pretty expected final match as it went. Croatia completely skipping the second half due to physical exhaustion should signal the organizers that longer breaks after the group phase are needed, if they don't want lower quality finals than semis of course.
Overall really strong competition this WC and some big surprises delivered for a super entertaining tourney.
I haven't really looked for the foul after to check it out after the match and let's completely ignore the fact that Griezmann dove, as he would've been fouled either way dive or no dive. The thing is I'm pretty sure Mbappe was in offside with 1 leg when the foul was being shot. Now he didn't play with the ball, however, the rule says that if a player in an offside position has an influence on the game, it's an offside even if he doesn't play with the ball. Mandjukic HAD to cover that area because of Mbappe being in an offside, so he DID influence the game which is a 1000% foul and there are 5 referees in the VAR room with no one saying shit. That was disgusting.
Might not be Mbappe btw, might be Pogba but not sure, not the best quality
His leg is 1000000% behind the defender.
Not to mention that Mandjukic was also being pushed there. Shit like that really pisses me off, whats the point of using VAR if you can't even fucking do it correctly in the most important match of the WC.
Either way don't think Croatia would've had the physical condition to win this, unless they had managed to score 2 goals in the first 50 minutes and then park the bus, but they're not that type of team.... and a guy like Lovren is a starting defender so...
On July 15 2018 19:02 Spitfiree wrote:
1.9 coef = -111 US odds , while what you're asking for is -2000
also lol @ Baal , I'll just comment on the last part. "if you arent liquid you sell all your assets" is a literal oxymoron
I also ended up in the top 0.3% of fifa's predictor game and havent bet a single match - I must be a huge idiot, no ?
I figured you mentioned it 20:1 since Stroggoz and someone else mentioned it.
and yes, if you have a 95% chance to win close to even money you should by kelly and pretty much any reasonable risk criterion bet at least half of your net worth.
If you meant 10:1 and not 20:1 then it changes considerably, but it still one of the most EV+ opporunities you will find in your entire life.
If a layman lets such an opportunity go by without investing then its understandable, but any professional gambler who does that is a fool, most likely because their odds prediction skills are ridiculously bad, but subconsciously they are aware of this thus they don't invest.
Stop trying to justify it, this is a poker forum that shit wont fly.
Also no, not betting getting top 0.3% of whatever you are talking about wouldnt make an idiot, it would make you an idiot to infer that would make you a +ev WC bettor.
It's not Mbappe, but the dude is in offside, however they may treat the shot not as a pass to him, but as a direct strike and in this case he is in a passive offside aka the goal is by the rules.
It was clear that the referee is going to push France, especially their own boy Pitana who opened the WC. This however wouldn't change the fact that Croatia would totally miss the 2nd half in either way. It's not about momentum/dynamic here and a different result at half time. France simply scores enough to beat them the 2nd half always when Croatia have no physical capability anymore.
Sad thing, but as long as there are so few days between the matches the small countries have awful chance, because of using their main squad all the time. Let's hope this is changed in the future. If France and Croatia play after 2 weeks from now I give it 60/40 for France. But in the WC final it may have been even higher than 75/25.
Actually being a direct strike or not does not have to matter here since the goal is declared as own goal by Mandžukic. It seems they simply count Pogba as not interfering in any way with Mandžukic or Vida. Now, if Vida have went to the referee explaining Pogba was not allowing him to play the ball after the Mandžukic header, maybe they would reconsider the situation, but this does not happen, so I kind of tend to go with the offside being passive.
But again as you said Mandžukic is aware of Pogba and may play with the ball to prevent it from going to him. If this was the case it is a clear offside and the reason Mandžukic did not go to argue with the referee is that he is not sure whether Pogba is offside. At 0:06 here it looks like he is looking at the assistant referee being unsure.
Really questionable situation. It can be given in both ways. But coming after the dive from Griezmann this should have 100% be declared offside.
An offside should be called the second Griezman hits the balls. If a player is in offside and INFLUENCES the game, without playing with the ball, then it is a 100% offside by the new rules ( 1-2 years now). Pogba is there creating pressure for the defense, so he obviously influences the game. Everything after Griezman hitting the ball does not mean a thing.
What pisses me off is that they have VAR and 5 ppl were in the room watching the finale and nobody said shit. It was the most important match of the WC and major mistakes were made. I don't think Croatia would've had insanely bigger odds of winning due to that goal being taken away but still, it's very nasty especially cause it could've been prevented.
A lot of people also were calling out the ref on the penalty, but that's a 1000% penalty imo. There was a defender of Croatia and Mbappe waiting for the ball behind. You can't really know who'll get it first and what happens. We human beings have natural reactions of course, e.g. his hand was positioned that way cause he had no clear vision of the ball and was keeping balance while going back to the ground by instincts, except he s a professional athlete and should be able to overcome his instincts especially in such situations.
Perisic move with the hand was on purpose and intentional. The penalty is 100% by the rules.
About the offside: Influencing does not mean just standing in offside and having a defender near you. This does NOT guarantee that you influence the game. Take a look at the possible scenarios here (official rules as of the day the match was played):
1) preventing an opponent from playing or being able to play the ball by clearly obstructing the opponent’s line of vision
2) challenging an opponent for the ball
3) clearly attempting to play a ball which is close to them when this action impacts on an opponent
4) making an obvious action which clearly impacts on the ability of an opponent to play the ball
1) - Could be decided if Vida insisted
2) & 3) - Could be decided if Mandžukic insisted
4) - No such situation
The problem is neither Vida nor Mandžukic went to protest with the referee. It was more like:
- Vida could not play the bounced ball from Mandžukic and he saw its trajectory clearly
- Mandžukic wanted to clear the ball in order not to go directly in the goal besides stopping Pogba from playing with it
It's really tricky, because if you totally remove Pogba from there, Mandžukic does the same header pretty much all the time. But if Mandžukic had gone to the assisting referee insisting he does this ONLY to prevent Pogba to play with the ball, then there has to be an offside.
the BSOP (brazilian series of poker) is going on and Neymar reached FT of the high roller that was going to end yesterday BUT he had a wedding to attend thus the organization decided to break and continue the next day.
United States. Jul 14 2018 19:33. Posts 8534
