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whammbot   Belarus. Dec 10 2017 08:41. Posts 263
Got torn a new asshole when I moved up lol. Seems like believing in your own bullshit can fuck with you and it's a bad habit of mine. ATH is within striking distance and getting more consistent and less swingy results now. Developed a drip-style of moving up instead of just doubling the bet amounts. My first month results were mostly clicking buttons with very little research on teams and how they've behaved (integrity wise) Playing stand-ins, online vs lan tourney, forum swaying by shills and past history play a great role in determining the best decision when betting these games. No guarantees of course, but you tilt less knowing you could have not done it any better.

December will probaly be less streaky but also less stressful. I hope there's a reason why my BR hasn't been wiped out clean yet lol.

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PuertoRican   United States. Dec 11 2017 00:11. Posts 11275

Rekrul is a newb 

whammbot   Belarus. Dec 12 2017 10:40. Posts 263

^ Yeah, feeling real good about this month but had a godawful start to december. Almost at that ATH range again wish me luck!

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whammbot   Belarus. Dec 14 2017 02:17. Posts 263

had a little setback again but now im back to being near ATH lol this shit aint good for me no more :D

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Dinewbie   United States. Dec 15 2017 09:17. Posts 42

Honestly just leafing over your blog you look like you suffer from making too many bets. You can't possibly be making that many profitable bets, trim the bottom 40% of your bets and go 1.25x sizing on the good bets instead of spray and praying. My two cents. Every bet you make can potentially have a million angles, have to see the big picture. I imagine esports is harder to bet on profitably than other things as well.

Btw I am Fujikura 

Dinewbie   United States. Dec 15 2017 09:19. Posts 42

P.S. Being near all time high literally means nothing. There's nothing more important in handicapping than protecting your roll and safely increasing it. Dont' worry about that stuff and just stick to making money at a safe rate. Look up Kelly criterion and use it to determine your bet sizing vs risk of ruin.

Btw I am Fujikura 

whammbot   Belarus. Dec 17 2017 04:14. Posts 263

Yeah it's getting to a point where it's confusing to make picks on even the surest matchups. It's becoming more betting addiction than anything lol
It really doesn't help that so much matchfixing vs handicaps is occuring, as I've realized it happens across most low tier sports. I'll take your advice and Ive actually thought about increasing bet size and betting less on handicap games and more on moneyline bo3 outcomes. I've observed real intentions usually play out in the regular format and anythign in between is just a way to make money for these underpaid athletes.

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Dinewbie   United States. Dec 17 2017 18:59. Posts 42

Unless you're sure the matches are actually fixed, you should always be checking what line has better value for the side you want. Spread vs ML in esports are almost never equal and most fish don't know the difference. Probability calculations are your friend when you're trying to maximize your bottom line. For example, I bet Larva +3.5 -250 and +2.5 was +150 or something (don't remember, was low stakes anyway) and after calculating with different win rates, the two spots weren't even close in Expected Value. Anyway if you really want to get good, you have to put in the hard work, can't just be mashing and firing random spots you think might be good. You're paying 10% juice to make a bet so you really need to eliminate the random spew.
Anyway, short term: Probably just bet ML for a while and gather more data to see if you really think spread is rigged. Assuming all other things equal, ML is generally better for underdogs (worse for favorites) and spread is generally worse for underdogs (better for favorites) just due to the nature of recency bias and fading general edges.

Btw I am Fujikura 

Dinewbie   United States. Dec 17 2017 19:02. Posts 42

Also when making bets, think in terms of weighted averages. For example, 50% of the time this bet is an 80/20, 50% of the time this bet is a coinflip vs 90% of the time this bet is a free win, 10% this bet is a coinflip. The more sure you are a bet is good, the bigger you can press your sizing. The more random and unknown factors there are, the more you should be weary before pressing your bets. Not all bets are created equal and bet sizing is the hardest part of handicapping professionally. For this reason, just start with 2 betsizings, small (think "I know this bet is good but I don't know WHY" ) and large ("I am very confident this is a good bet and often free money" ) for 1 unit and 1.5x unit. When you start seeing results with large bets winning more, you can increase that sizing to 2x or even 3x.

Btw I am FujikuraLast edit: 17/12/2017 19:04

whammbot   Belarus. Dec 20 2017 00:21. Posts 263

I'm doing really well in 1 bets, like 1 map per matchup in bo3s, I think anything over 1 bet increases my variance by so much. I've had very good results last month maybe that's why I started betting more than 1 map, thinking that I'm losing value by not doing so basing on how I was doing so well last time and now it's just breaking even a lot. Need to be disciplined enough not to be greedy thinking adding more bets in a matchup will increase my winnings, stupid I know but I'm kinda new to this (2 months so far)

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