whammbot   Belarus. Nov 03 2017 02:33. Posts 70
Today's AM bets:
Noob reasoning for betting:
*Spirit is not the best team per se but Tyloo is highly ranked but an Asian team from China with less experience vs White experienced teams, +1.5 didn't hurt
*Flash vs VP yesterday was super close, Flash lost but they took the game to VP harrd and might have learned a thing or two and do less 1-on-1 and make adjustments. Skillwise they belong to the global stage
*Both teams have won me money but Heroic just knows how to close and shut down rallying opponents when they're ahead, I'm not sure about Hellraisers but yeah this is closer. Even bet twice lol
*VP = enough said, Im a PashaBiceps fan, him and snax double AWP'ing is just great
*Bet on Muffin's opponents even if they seem to be a new team because i lost betting on these fools and they played super terrible
*Bet on Torque just for the odds and ratings.
This is all intuition-based and a bit of super-shallow analysis so I'm not claiming to be an expert just like to blog about my progress or failure hehe
Kinguin vs Nexus (won)
CLG vs Misfits(won)
LDLC vs BIG(won)
Luminosity vs Rise Nation (Under 26.5)(won)
Dream vs EnvyUs Academy(my pick) -5.5(won)
Good lucky first day. Back tomorrow
Last edit: 03/11/2017 22:32
whammbot   Belarus. Nov 03 2017 23:24. Posts 70
Today's AM bets
Luminosity vs Misfits 3rd map (Luminosity to win)(LOSS)
Renegades vs Flash (Flash to win +235 to win)(LOSS)
Grayhound vs Athletico (Grayhound to 2-0)(LOSS)
Spirit vs Heroic (Spirit to win +271) (+1.5)(down 1 game probably another LOSSSS ugh)
^ bet on two huge dogs simply because of their recent momentum and clutch wins = confidence vs better skill/ recent tough loss. i watched how they toughed it out in really long battles getting to this point but vs slightly weaker opposition. Bad start to the day booking two losses betting on huge favorites, hopefully this trend continues and my dogs win me back some money lol. I've halted betting continously for now and see if both dogs lose then i'll regroup and bet smaller later.
FLash Gaming - 1st or 2nd best Chinese CSGO team, KAZE is their awp guy, a malaysian import with high individual skills but their teamwork is the thing that keeps them down. They play their best when behind by a lot which makes me wonder why the hell dont they see that and just play better teamwork from the jump. A better coach would do them wonders. Still their individual skill keeps them afloat. A very tough team to close out.
Spirit - Don't really know a lot about them except for a above average record russian team but the past few times I've bet on them they seem to play really well under adversity. Heroic has been fading lately and making really retarded mistakes too.
placed a last bet on athletico +4.5 for the round and eventually to win +261 Map3 vs. Grayhound (another dog bet lol). I've got good odds on all 3 dogs just hedging that one of them is most likely to win, if not then I call it a day haha. (LOSS)
6bets 6losses today. Understandable with how I was picking winners left and right yesterday. I'll bet smaller tomorrow and move down :D
other bets to be made later
LOL world championships (SKT1 to win 2-0) good thing i missed this lol
Larva vs Bisu
Last edit: 04/11/2017 15:37
whammbot   Belarus. Nov 04 2017 16:49. Posts 70
lost like two csgo bets so far today so variance really swingy but i'll avoid focusing on certain bo3 games since it sucks all the life out of me and just bet on 1 map, except when there's not much events out there and no variety to be had. yesterday although i did pick all losers i think focusing too much on betting twice or thrice in some matchups was really bad for me and neglecting other smaller matches. im getting attached to some teams and it fucks with my head e.g. Flash, Spirit bets
Hopefully Bisping and Bisu pull it off which gets me back into ATH levels
Lost BSPing stupid old fart. Bisu one time
Doomswitched by fucking bisping lost two bets on 2 maps for Envyus and Heroic broke even for the day.
Made bet on Flash to 3-0 hero and VP vs Renegades, VP down a map facing elimination.
Last edit: 07/11/2017 07:12
whammbot   Belarus. Nov 07 2017 00:52. Posts 70
Yesterday was interesting, started out rough, lost like 4 big bets straight and double dipped on a losing bet by mistake but I think then made it all back and won some. Didn't really have time to screenshot and explain everything since I was busy with something and the whole morning there were no events so I didnt get to update this
Variance starting to show but surprisingly my BR is holding up, I've only got around 20 to 25 buyins and so far so good. I really don't have a scientific method on how to do this or do I know if this is really going to go anywhere but I'm still pretty optimistic I can grow this. It's been 2 weeks so far and I hope this still lasts and gives me good results for the month. I'll try to avoid MMA bets for now and BW ones once ASL is over as it fucks with my head a lot lol
Using 100% linux now and it feels great to see how it has very little problems in 2017.
bet on two huge dogs for fun, these random eliminations are super rigged tho haha
I bet on Hyper +5.5 vs French canadians map2 Naventic -5.5 vs Gorilla Core map2,
Good People vs LFAO (+2.5) for Match. Bushido Boyz (-2.5) vs Mostly Harmless for Match.
Seems the adjustment I've made of not really focusing on betting multiples on a single matchup Bo3 worked out. I've noticed I get too attached to teams when I do this and it's terrible for objectivity. Won like 9 bets two got refunded and lost I think one or two bets with one being a very tiny one for fun. It gets stressful watching multiple streams but it helps with my need to get excited all the time when i'm getting overwhelmed with all the score tracking in the streams. Weird that I need to inundate myself with so much info to get to my focused side and not tilt.
1:00am 7-Nov-17 E Sports
Handicap Grayhound (-6.5) vs Dark Sided for Match. +108
1:00am 7-Nov-17 E Sports
Handicap Tainted Minds (-6.5) vs seadoggs for Match
2:00am 7-Nov-17 E Sports
Handicap Grayhound (-5.5) vs Riotous for Match.
2:00am 7-Nov-17 E Sports
Handicap Kings (-9.5) vs Conspiracy for Match. - all 4 events were cancelled except for this small bet ridic odds i lost
Bisu won 3-1 so that's nice. Looking forward to the games tonight
won 5 out the last 7 bets, cancelled event and a loss. pinnacle's platform sucks ass and image hosting sites don't work, went to bet early last night my BR is at an all-time high again. Continuing at the next post for the next day bets
Last edit: 07/11/2017 22:53
whammbot   Belarus. Nov 07 2017 22:57. Posts 70
Today's Bets so far:
Misfits (map 1) (-2.5) vs NRG (map 1) for Match. -103 (WIN map1, LOSS map2)
Luminosity (map 1) (-2.5) vs CLG (map 1) for Match. -105 (LOSS)
Renegades (map 1) (-5.5) vs Rogue (map 1) for Match. -122(LOSS)
OpTic (map 1) vs Ghost (map 1) (+6.5) for Match. -101(cancelled thank god lol)
Cloud9 (map 1) (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (map 1) for Match. -102(might be postponed as well)
bet again on Misfits which is against my rule and cancelled out the earlier win ugh. gotta stick with it next time, now these last two games need to cancel out the 2 losses so as to keep things in control. Ghost bet was a bit of a mistake since these teams use a lot of fucking similar names when I went to check their stats and bet on the wrong club lol. Rogue upset Renegades real bad. Some unknown rando team comes out and slays a strong team, should've took the big plus on that granting it was a swedish team I think. Misfits threw the 2nd game so fuckem haha
So much variance because of bad odds forcing me to make compromises. My double dip rule when chasing losses is really hurting progress. I don't understand how I am not down by a lot but I did win in some of the bets. Happens to me when I make tons of bets and try watching the streams at the same time but favorite bets are getting murdered now since bookie seemingly has made adjustments.
Last edit: 08/11/2017 11:44
whammbot   Belarus. Nov 08 2017 11:44. Posts 70
whammbot   Belarus. Nov 11 2017 05:59. Posts 70
Back. Did really well last couple days then got into a groove where I was auto-piloting to a point where I just instabet on favorites and bet on EVERY fucking event lol. Realized how rigged some of these shit euro team online tourneys were and lost like 40% of my BR on just retarded adjustments I made when favorites started dropping like flies. Added more rules of not betting on every damn event out there (lost a fuckton on droolers at the Busan CSGO games where it seems the only Japanese csgo players joined and got murked and I just bet on the huge handicaps their opponents were getting haha)
Bet on Flash to 3-0 that TvZ noob hero and I feel God will put an exclamation point to his legacy and stomp the guy. The reason I stopped posting really was LP wasn't working and my posts were not showing anymore plus Linux + Mozilla is a nightmare to multitask with. Some notes I have on some CSGO teams that some of you might sound useful:
*Only bet against these guys against other bad, but slightly better teams
Epsilon - bad team, just bad technically
Muffin - bad team, playing better against fellow noobs
Resistance - bad team doesnt mind getting 0-3
seadoggs - bad silver team, bet house and wife on opponent
Avant - just horrible, withdraw all your bitcoin and bet on any opponent with better ranking
Good Teams that are dodgy
Kings - good teams that let opponents win in big handicaps
Extatus - good team that throws
Gambit - top ranked team that let opponents catch up for handicaps
Misfits - top rated scumbag team
Team Liquid - good team that is inconsistent with above average competition
Tainted Minds - good team that fucks around get the win and handicap
LDLC - really good eu team that point shaves vs mediocre rated teams for the handicap
better bet with a plus handicap vs a superior team than bet on a slightly worse team
Immortals - good team but terrible against solid competition, overrated
CounterLogic Gaming - popular but very soft team to beat by upstarts and even weaker teams
Good reliable teams that don't throw, where you make money, they close when you need it:
KInguin - young team which murks weakers teams
Alternate Attax - closes when they should, no throws
Gx - good team vs noob
LFAO - good team, solid
Ghost academy - schizo t eam that plays well one game but sometimes just brainfarts
Team Spirit - similar to Ghost Academy
Space soldiers - god my favorite team, it's a top level team that can beat anyone better than them but stomps weaker teams with no letup. Xantares is an animal. worth the bet always as long as the odds are not terrible
Virtus Pro - actually this is my favorite team, comes from behind when playing bad and stomps when on point. money is never wasted
when you bet on these guys even when they lose, it's usually because one of the guys is off like Pasha
This whole "throwing" thing is real, I'm almost 100% sure of it. I watch most all games and when you choke, it looks different from a throw. They fuck up buy rounds and make bad money management e.g. force buying weak machine pistols in maps where its terrible, and let the opponent catch up for the handicap, teams or players just start acting weird . Remember these are underpaid kids who can easily be tempted or intimidated to shave off kills or just make bad plays. Choking is when opponent just hits everything and you dont meanwhile throws are just uncharacteristicly obvious to see.
Last edit: 11/11/2017 06:25
whammbot   Belarus. Nov 14 2017 00:06. Posts 70
Since losing 40% of BR it taught me to follow rules better, allocate more time on research and if really doubtful about the matchup that is just too close or odds too shit vs the team i prefer, esp in bo3 matchups, i let game 1 pass and watch the game. I've also been more selective in betting matches way too early, and refuse to just bet out every single match on autopilot on busy days. Grinding for the past 3 days im almost back to ATH if things go as they should. Getting more sleep helps, losing to teams throwing handicaps vs terrible teams at 3am is no fun and makes me tilt super hard lol
I used to pass up sure wins if I saw +300plus with no handicap bets, now I just bet small and don't let it slide without me profiting even a small amount. Sure wins in Csgo are bo1 games where a top 25 team is up against some #100 to 300 one - it's just like Flash vs some random B player
Last edit: 14/11/2017 00:10
whammbot   Belarus. Nov 17 2017 23:38. Posts 70
can't seem to break that magic number which has turned into some kind of wall. variance is getting bad and sometimes i just wanna give up already then suddenly i get "fair" results then im within striking distance again of that wall. i think i need to calm down with the massive volume of bets since its already starting to take hold of my entire day. if i dont break this wall within 1 month (which is the timetable i set for this little experiment of mine) I think I'll just withdraw everything and keep a small amount to grind again. since taking this more seriously its been less and less fun and more about the money i can make if i do well consistently. I might get Neteller so that I can buy/trade cryptos soon
Last edit: 17/11/2017 23:42
whammbot   Belarus. Nov 22 2017 10:13. Posts 70
blew past mental wall figures yesterday looking to breaking more highs. I could just bet bigger but variance would fuck me in the ass so Im taking my time using proper BR management (30buys). at least in sports there are no "correct" rules since everybody thinks its terrible lol
That way I can be and do on my own weird style that I'm comfortable with. I don't really bet big amounts but I started with 100usd left so i prefer that learn while grind this out. no graphs or bet receipts too lazy to put em up each time. gg guys
whammbot   Belarus. Nov 25 2017 06:44. Posts 70
CSGO throwing has been so rampant everyone just accepts it as the norm which is ridiculous because almost every game I watch has some weird rigged element to it now. Feels like Pstars RNG all over again and tilted like 30% of my BR which did reah an all time high (% wise). Trying to figure out my own Algo for beating these patterns of match and round throwing by assessing the common conditions in which teams give away rounds for handicaps or over/under vs certain opponents, type of tourney (LAN or Online) and where the masses would logically bet and times results were adverse as fuck it belies common sense. All that, apart from players with dubious history invovled in new teams etc
BR is llike 10% to all time high again and I'm planning a retake bfore December. That amateur algo I've developed worked like 5 out of 8 times which is great considering i was getting slaughtered betting on huge favorites only to witness them throw a lot of rounds away once they were close to 15 (match point).I hope to break the last ATh this week but I will also adjust my picks according to present conditions instead of just being a fanboy to some teams and ALWAYS betting on them.
whammbot   Belarus. Nov 26 2017 03:14. Posts 70
All time high again bois. Feelsgoodman.jpg haha
Looking forward to watching two of my favorite teams duke it out in the FDCB and final.
Last edit: 26/11/2017 13:46
whammbot   Belarus. Nov 28 2017 00:19. Posts 70
Moving up to 50% additional per bet next month, it's not really a big deal $ wise since my bets are basically the equivalent of lolstakes in Poker but the great thing about betting sports is that the conditions remain the same and only the $ value changes. Might be more stressful with the slightly bigger swings but I've already decided that my most conservative and safe comfort levels are 50 Buyins per limit, while moving down when I lose 10 buyins in a day which is pretty gnarly considering my bets are so variably made. I'm thinking of either learning to play Dota 2 or PUBG, but since CSGO is never going anywhere in the next 5 years with CS source engine 2 in the horizon and more and more leagues adding events e.g. BLAST series, I'll hang around this scene and learn more about the player rotations. Gg LP, i hope all this blogging helps my mental health, gambling is rarely something I enjoy nowadays.