2017-2018 NBA Thread

LMAO...

I go to do some homework and notice BOS/CLE are in overtime... CLE must've sat their A-Team in the 3rd quarter and paid for it.

No overtime, just got close at the end

The last 6 minutes of the GSW/HOU game was too much for my 2 teams to cash. If Gordon Hayward never left the game, I would've easily cashed with both my teams.

As for the Pick'Em team, I got 90th place for $4, so I only lost -$3 at the end of the night.

The guy who won the big $3 tournament tonight picked a few guys who were in the $3000 range who scored big, which means he knew what he was doing + got lucky -- this meant he was able to get a several massive favorites who ended up scoring big as well. I'm not into NBA enough to know who those 2-3 guys are who he picked, so I had no chance to get 1st.

I'll have 1 team tomorrow in the big $4 event. I made it right now, but won't have time to research tomorrow since I'll be at work and school.

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Actually, they adjusted the scores and I finished 31st in the Pick'Em event for $6. So I only lost -$1 today.

lmao...

fwiw, futures are never good value at start of season or end of season, if you want a team, you want to wait for them to underperform and have their value drop and then scoop the equity when the competition/market aren't believing in them.... Try looking at lines again in a few months

On October 18 2017 19:46 Dinewbie wrote: fwiw, futures are never good value at start of season or end of season, if you want a team, you want to wait for them to underperform and have their value drop and then scoop the equity when the competition/market aren't believing in them.... Try looking at lines again in a few months

Without seeing any empirical evidence I have to doubt this. Well, the end of season part makes sense because that's when the most information is available and it's less likely there's anything the books failed to account for, and most of the wins/losses are already completed.

But saying that mid-season is better value than early season because teams over/underperform is basically saying "Buy low, sell high, easy game". If anything, the lines should be sharper mid-season because there's way better information for the books to base their lines off of. It's difficult to model things like synergy between two players who haven't played together before (e.g. Harden/Paul), this is where someone who follows the game very closely can possibly have an edge early on. But after a bunch of games have been played, books have plenty of data with them together to make a sharp line. It's not like books change their projections because a team makes a normal positive or negative deviation in their quality of play.

Real reason not to bet early season futures is because of low limits and the time value of money (and the reason to bet them is for a fun sweat).

wtf... Joel Embiid is only supposed to play for 16 minutes tonight, which means Okafor is supposed to get hella minutes, yet Okafor hasn't played yet and we're halfway through the game...

Okafor supposedly wasn't feeling well the other day, but was supposed to play today.

I'm taking today (Thursday) off from NBA. Day 1 and Day 2 sucked, as one guy (Gordon Hayward) broke his ankle 6 minutes into the game, and the other guy (Okafor) who was supposed to get a lot of minutes didn't end up playing in the game even though there wasn't any news prior to the game that he wouldn't be playing.

Today is Thursday night football, so I'm focused on that. I'll probably play some NBA on Saturday, but skip it on Sunday since Sunday is meant for NFL.

We also have an early UFC card on Saturday that starts at 8:30pm PST / 11:30am EST.

I hope Melo drops 50 on the Knicks

I played the opener for fun/learn, but clearly had no idea what i was doing. Also with my schedule I have 0 time to make changes in the 2 hours or so before tipoff or whatever. My line ups were garbage and very fish-like. I probably could get a little better if I invest some time in the season and do some research, but it's simply not the time for that right now.

Anyway wanted to share LP's very own daut44's dfs articles on steemit. They are very good yall should check it out. I'll try to post updates on here for you guys to see.

https://steemit.com/sports/@daut44/nba-dfs-10-17-lineups-results
https://steemit.com/sports/@daut44/nba-dfs-10-18-lineups-results

Ingram has been so disappointing, Ball too but it's his first NBA game and Beverley is an animal on D so cutting him some slack. Clippers look like a fun team this year. Wasn't able to watch Knicks/Thunder but I see Melo has 0 +/- when his team wins by 21, standard

On October 20 2017 04:17 hiems wrote: Also with my schedule I have 0 time to make changes in the 2 hours or so before tipoff or whatever.

Hate to say it but you are drawing dead long-term doing this, you have to pretty much be glued to Twitter for injury updates during the hour or so leading up to the game, and have a pivot chart (or equivalent) ready for making substitutions. It's part of the reason I'm not playing this season even though I kind of miss it, I just don't have the time.

^ was never big on Ingram. I was really surprised when apparently he was being hyped (I guess by Magic) to be a big part of the future of the organization. Just seemed kind of bizarre to me.

cool article on bloomberg how big firms are moving to sports market more and more.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...rading-firm-s-way-to-beat-market-odds

also referenced in the article is this gem :
https://www.raiseyourgame.com/

really cool blog from SIG (where the guys from mathematics of poker work). apparently Jens Kyllönen has transitioned into an entry level trading position with them.

On October 20 2017 04:39 bigredhoss wrote: Show nested quote + On October 20 2017 04:17 hiems wrote: Also with my schedule I have 0 time to make changes in the 2 hours or so before tipoff or whatever. Hate to say it but you are drawing dead long-term doing this, you have to pretty much be glued to Twitter for injury updates during the hour or so leading up to the game, and have a pivot chart (or equivalent) ready for making substitutions. It's part of the reason I'm not playing this season even though I kind of miss it, I just don't have the time.

yeah i know that's why I'm not playing at all, haha. I made a few entries first game of season because I was pretty pumped for nba or whatever, but haven't done any since then. not to mention even if I had time I am a huge fish at the moment. I did it mostly for learning fwiw.

NBA is by far the easiest to win $ on, follow projections, stack 2 9-12k players (Cousins is sick for 70 / Antepuloko etc)
Also, a good strategy when 3-6 games is to just pick the highest scoring game and smash it. A lot of firsts happen this way.

play vs teams that turn the ball over a lot in guard "golden state, chicago bulls"
steals are worth 3.

theres alot of great ins and outs

my lineups are usually curry clay durant and a bunch of 4-6k guys. Trust Gorat at center in a lot of games if you need a cheapish center.

Keep your eye on the injuries, thats where you get ur value for stars, GL.

Detroit and Orlando have some great value guards, don't forget Otto Porter PF @Wizards, Cousins overpriced but OK for 3 night games, Lebrons not at full health

I really like Simmons for 4k on DK, hes getting hotter and hotter. THink he went off for 50 fpg 2 nights ago for me

its really easy to get ITM in NBA, going for first is another thing. I prefer the late night 3 games, its wayyy easier if your GPPing.

Stacking OKC, Wizards, Houston and Golden State games is usually a win. Careful with GS though, so many turnovers kills your bottom line. I prefer Golden state only when they need to post a ton (live vs washinton) - altho sit Curry there, as Washington has some elite guards!

Thu 16/11 Basketball NBA Odds
17.05
Golden State Warriors
1.322
-7.5

Boston Celtics
3.730
+7.5

should be fun one.

Easy ass alternative line bet of +15.5 celtics -325

On October 16 2017 19:52 bigredhoss wrote: Didn't look through all the over/unders but I like Utah o40.5 (+103).

Looking pretty ugly now with Gobert missing 4-6 weeks t.t