UFC FN 106: Belfort vs. Gastelum

Date: Saturday, March 11th
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass): 01:00 LP.net / 4pm PST / 7pm EST
Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1): 2:00 LP.net / 5pm PST / 8pm EST
Main Card (Fox Sports 1): 4:00 LP.net / 7pm PST / 10pm EST
Live Streams: http://firstrowus1.eu/




Main Card (Fox Sports 1)

Vitor Belfort (25-13) vs. Kelvin Gastelum (13-2) (Middleweight)
Mauricio Rua (24-10) vs. Gian Villante (15-7) (Light Heavyweight)
Edson Barboza (18-4) vs. Beneil Dariush (14-2) (Lightweight)
Jussier Formiga (19-4) vs. Ray Borg (10-2) (Flyweight)
Bethe Correia (10-2) vs. Marion Reneau (7-3) (Women's Bantamweight)
Alex Oliveira (15-4-1) vs. Tim Means (26-7-1) (Welterweight)

Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1)

Francisco Trinaldo (21-4) vs. Kevin Lee (14-2) (Lightweight)
Sergio Moraes (11-2-1) vs. Davi Ramos (6-1) (Welterweight)
Rani Yahya (23-8) vs. Joe Soto (17-5) (Bantamweight)
Michel Prazeres (21-2) vs. Josh Burkman (28-14) (Lightweight)

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Rony Jason (14-6) vs. Jeremy Kennedy (9-0) (Featherweight)
Garreth McLellan (13-5) vs. Paulo Henrique Costa (8-0) (Middleweight)

Other

- Max Griffin was expected to face Sergio Moraes at the event. However, Griffin pulled out of the fight on March 2 citing an undisclosed injury. He was replaced by promotional newcomer Davi Ramos on March 4. Ramos is a BJJ specialist who won a gold medal at ADCC 2015 in Sao Paulo -- he usually fights at Lightweight in MMA, but will fight Moraes at Welterweight.
- Godofredo Pepey and Kyle Bochniak were expected to face each other at the event. However, both fighters pulled out of the fight during the week leading up to the event citing injuries and the bout was scrapped.

First impression of the match-ups:

• Gastelum > Belfort
• Rua > Villante
• Dariush > Barboza
• Formiga > Borg
• Reneau > Correia
• Means > Oliveira
• Lee > Trinaldo
• Bochniak > Pepey
• Moraes vs. Ramos (dunno)
• Prazeres > Burkman
• Jason > Kennedy
• Yahya vs. Soto (dunno, tough and very interesting fight on paper)
• Costa > McLellan

I can see all Brazilians winning their fights on this card, aside from Vitor. Although, this is Vitor's last stand, and it's in Brazil, so he'll be going "all out" for this fight. Will Vitor going all out actually mean much in the end? We'll see, but he needs to win in Round 1 or get overwhelmed and lose via TKO.

Anyway, when you actually look into the match-ups, you'll see this is another hard fight card to predict. The UFC matchmakers have been doing a great job thus far in 2017, cuz I haven't felt like I've had an edge in awhile, when compared to 1 year ago.

Vitor is beyond done, don't know why he would fight someone as decent as gastelum at this point. Guy gets taken down at will then quits. And I like Vitor a lot.

Can't be worse than 209 and it's free so looking forward to the card kinda

Barboza should be the headliner

Usually am partial to Edison but I also like Beneil's matchup vs Edison and will be on him +140

Prob Means and Bochniak as well

Gastelum itd because vitor

What are the odds on Shogun vs Villante? Assuming pretty close to pick em..maybe Shogun as a slight favorite? Prob going to be on Villante and hope his lacking fight IQ is at least somewhat improving

On March 06 2017 04:21 iakim322 wrote: Usually am partial to Edison but I also like Beneil's matchup vs Edison and will be on him +140 Prob Means and Bochniak as well Gastelum itd because vitor What are the odds on Shogun vs Villante? Assuming pretty close to pick em..maybe Shogun as a slight favorite? Prob going to be on Villante and hope his lacking fight IQ is at least somewhat improving

1. Means vs. Oliveira is a rematch. Means beat his ass the first time and was about to get the TKO stoppage until he kneed Oliveira in the head when he had 1 knee on the ground. Everyone is gonna be on Means.

2. Bochniak needs to avoid Pepey's wild knees in R1, then he can win R2/R3 if he pushes the pace. That being said, Bochniak has been in 2 close fights in the UFC, and even though I picked him in his last fight, he should've lost the decision. I heard it will be humid in this part of Brazil this weekend, which means the arena will be even more humid, which is always a factor.

3. Odds aren't out yet aside from the main and co-main fights, so no idea. Villante can only win ITD here, while Shogun can win ITD and by decision. Villante hasn't improved, and he's considered a UFC veteran at this point.

Is there USADA testing when the fight is in Brasil?

Damn the barboza/dariush fight gonna be a tough pick

On March 06 2017 08:19 whamm! wrote: Is there USADA testing when the fight is in Brasil?

UFC does their own testing when they have events in Brazil.

USADA = United States Anti Doping Agency

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Vitor is 5-1 in Brazil since 2009. His loss came to a fellow Brazilian in Jacare Souza.

If Vitor was gonna cheat again, this would be the best time to do it. He's in his home country, and he'll retire if he loses.

On March 06 2017 01:08 PuertoRican wrote: • Dariush > Barboza

srsly? With the fight being in brazil?

Brazilian fighter vs international fighter. Last 10 events that took place in Brazil:

UFC FN: Bader vs Nog. Brazil 7-4 World
UFC FN: Cyborg vs Lanzberg. Brazil 8-3 World
UFC 198: Brazil 8-2 World
UFC FN:. Belfort vs Hendo 3. Brazil 6-6 World
UFC 190: Brazil 5-4 World
UFC FN: Condit vs Alves Brazil 5-5 World
UFC FN: Maia vs LaFlare. Brazil 8-2 World
UFC FN: Bigfoot vs Mir. Brazil 3-7 World
UFC FN: Machida vs Dollaway. Brazil 8-3 World
UFC FN: Shogun vs StPreux: Brazil 6-2 World
_________________________________________
Total: Brazil 64-38 World
This card has just one Brazil vs. Brazil fight. So we have 12 Brazilian fighters vs. 12 international fighters.

I favor a lot of the Brazillians because of this. It's definitely home field advantage.
I even wonder about Alex Oleiveira vs Tim Means because of this. As its obvious from the last fight that they are on almost completely different skill levels.

"Godofredo Pepey and Kyle Bochniak were expected to face each other at the event. However, both fighters pulled out of the fight during the week leading up to the event citing injuries and the bout was scrapped."

13 fights to 12 fights. Not terrible.

Tractor is a monster. He's going to wreck Burkman.

heres my strategy for the main event. if belfort looks like hes on PEDs during weighins, bet. if not, dont bet.

I don't see how Belfort will win even on PEDs if Gastelum shows at 100%

I got caught betting on Rockhold over Vitor in Brazil. Now, if anything, I'm betting on Vitor here. Nobody gives a fuck about Gastellum. Nobody needs him.

Thoughts on -425 Gastelum and Barboza -175?

On March 10 2017 14:53 Nazgul wrote: Thoughts on -425 Gastelum and Barboza -175?

I was originally giving Vitor a chance, but then saw video of him amd Rafael Cordeiro hitting pads. I forgot he has been with Kings MMA for.a couple fights, and everything they work on at that gym is what Vitor does in a fight. Vitor is low volume and only has a couple of flurries in him before he goves up. I think Kelvin will win via TKO in Round 2.

I think Dariush will beat Barboza, so I obviously don't like Barboza -175.