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UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis

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PuertoRican   United States. Dec 05 2016 02:48. Posts 10452

Date: Saturday, December 10th
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass): 00:30 LP.net / 3:30pm PST / 6:30pm EST
Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1): 2:00 LP.net / 5pm PST / 8pm EST
Main Card (PPV): 4:00 LP.net / 7pm PST / 10pm EST
Live Streams: http://firstrowus1.eu/




Main Card (PPV)

Max Holloway (16-3) vs. Anthony Pettis (19-5) (Featherweight)
Donald Cerrone (31-7) vs. Matt Brown (20-15) (Welterweight)
Cub Swanson (23-7) vs. Doo Ho Choi (14-1) (Featherweight)
Tim Kennedy (18-5) vs. Kelvin Gastelum (12-2) (Middleweight)
Jordan Mein (29-10) vs. Emil Weber Meek (8-2-1) (Welterweight)

Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1)

Nikita Krylov (21-4) vs. Misha Cirkunov (12-2) (Light Heavyweight)
Olivier Aubin-Mercier (8-2) vs. Drew Dober (17-7) (Lightweight)
Valerie Letourneau (8-5) vs. Viviane Pereira (11-0) (Women's Strawweight)
Mitch Gagnon (12-3) vs. Matthew Lopez (8-1) (Bantamweight)

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

John Makdessi (14-5) vs. Lando Vannata (8-1) (Lightweight)
Jason Saggo (12-2) vs. Rustam Khabilov (20-3) (Lightweight)
Zach Makovsky (19-7) vs. Dustin Ortiz (15-6) (Flyweight)

Other

- Promotional newcomer Poliana Botelho was expected to face former UFC Women's Strawweight Championship challenger Valerie Letourneau at the event. However, Botelho was removed from the fight for undisclosed reasons on October 26 and was replaced by fellow newcomer Viviane Pereira.
- Former UFC Flyweight Championship challenger John Moraga was expected to face former Bellator Bantamweight Champion Zach Makovsky at the event. However, Moraga pulled out of the fight in early November citing injury and was replaced by Dustin Ortiz.
- Tim Kennedy and Rashad Evans were originally booked for UFC 205. However, Evans was pulled from the fight a few days before the event after an undisclosed irregularity was found during his pre-fight medical exam. The fight was later rescheduled for UFC 206, but Evans was still unable to get licensed. Kelvin Gastelum replaced Evans on November 26.
- A welterweight bout between Chad Laprise and Li Jingliang was expected to take place at the event. However, Laprise pulled out of the fight on November 16 citing an undisclosed injury. As a result Li was pulled from the card entirely and will be rescheduled at a future event.

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Rekrul is a newb 

PuertoRican   United States. Dec 05 2016 02:53. Posts 10452



----------

First impression of the match-ups:

• Holloway > Pettis
• Cerrone > Brown
• Choir > Swanson
• Kennedy > Gastelum
• Mein vs. Meek (dunno)
• Cirkunov > Krylov
• Mercier > Dober
• Letourneau > Pereira
• Gagnon > Lopez
• Vannata > Makdessi
• Khabilov > Saggo
• Makovsky > Ortiz

Rekrul is a newb 

gebbstet   Sweden. Dec 05 2016 10:13. Posts 390

Choi will probably KO Cub but I thought there was value on him at +195 so I placed a bet on him
edit : +195

 Last edit: 05/12/2016 16:09

Nazgul    Netherlands. Dec 05 2016 13:18. Posts 7049

OMG lol you know when you're totally out of it when Swanson is +195 against a guy you don't know. Fuck. I like Holloway and Cerrone as well but their lines probably aren't too interesting (-185 and -260).

You almost twin-caracked his AK - JonnyCosmo 

whamm!   Albania. Dec 05 2016 15:27. Posts 11535

Holloway
Brown
Swanson

Come at me.


alejandicto   . Dec 05 2016 19:57. Posts 633

mmmm this card is very difficult to bet for me : (

Brown, Swanson or Gastelum may have some value dont know...


PuertoRican   United States. Dec 05 2016 21:51. Posts 10452


Rekrul is a newb 

whamm!   Albania. Dec 06 2016 12:25. Posts 11535

holloway has a ton of momentum with supreme confidence as a fighter
cerrone chokes vs people who dont respect his stand up, also his reach height advantage here is nil

 Last edit: 06/12/2016 12:26

Spitfiree   Bulgaria. Dec 06 2016 13:06. Posts 7699

Holloway TKO or Pettis ITD then ?


jvilla777   Australia. Dec 06 2016 13:21. Posts 1325

Swanson moves a lot and is hard to hit, however Choi has the height and reach + this is going to be a striking match. I love Cub but Choi is winning this one.

longple: ur missing the point! this is an attempt to get away from the bumhuntmentality! 

lucky331   . Dec 06 2016 13:52. Posts 705

im betting for all the underdogs in the main card


PuertoRican   United States. Dec 06 2016 19:31. Posts 10452




  On December 06 2016 12:06 Spitfiree wrote:
Holloway TKO or Pettis ITD then ?


Holloway decision, Pettis submission, imo.

Rekrul is a newbLast edit: 07/12/2016 01:23

whamm!   Albania. Dec 07 2016 03:48. Posts 11535

Holloway because of the "conor blessing" he's received
TKO to strikes under 4

 Last edit: 07/12/2016 03:51

Stim_Abuser   United States. Dec 07 2016 04:32. Posts 7498


  On December 06 2016 11:25 whamm! wrote:
holloway has a ton of momentum with supreme confidence as a fighter
cerrone chokes vs people who dont respect his stand up, also his reach height advantage here is nil



Common misconception. Cerrone doesn't simply choke. He has just always had trouble with pressure fighters because his footwork is very stationairy and he had no head movement. So when anyone pressured him he had no answer. He's much better at dealing with it now, mixing in takedowns and moving his feet/head better.

Hey Im slinging mad volume and fat stackin benjies I dont got time for spellin n shit - skinny pete 

soberstone   United States. Dec 07 2016 06:13. Posts 2641

https://soundcloud.com/anikandflorian...egas-bookmaker-matthew-holt-ray-longo

Last 10 min they interview a Vegas bookie, I think you guys may find it interesting - nothing we don't know but still fun - interesting that they were going to pull MMA from Vegas books because only sharps bet but then it blew up at perfect time.

 Last edit: 07/12/2016 06:16

soberstone   United States. Dec 07 2016 06:20. Posts 2641

My thoughts currently

• Holloway > Pettis via decision or late tko
• Cerrone > Brown via sub
• Choi > Swanson via KO but the odds are too wide now, Swanson is slick on the ground and Choi's jits/cardio/overall game are untested
• Kennedy > Gastelum via decision (close)
• Mein > Meek via KO
• Cirkunov vs Krylov - Not sure yet
• Mercier vs Dober - Not sure yet
• Letourneau vs Pereira - Not sure yet
• Gagnon vs Lopez - Not sure yet
• Vannata > Makdessi via decision or late tko - excited to see if Vannata is the real deal (I think he is) and I like how they matched him up vs a solid gatekeeper technical striker
• Khabilov vs Saggo - Not sure yet
• Makovsky > Ortiz via decision

 Last edit: 07/12/2016 06:22

soberstone   United States. Dec 07 2016 06:26. Posts 2641


  On December 07 2016 03:32 Stim_Abuser wrote:
Show nested quote +



Common misconception. Cerrone doesn't simply choke. He has just always had trouble with pressure fighters because his footwork is very stationairy and he had no head movement. So when anyone pressured him he had no answer. He's much better at dealing with it now, mixing in takedowns and moving his feet/head better.


This is pretty spot on although vs Diaz he def did mindfuck himself he admits hes a slow starter as well.

The fact that Brown is such a quick starter and is a pressure fighter is worrisome but honestly, Brown's durability (his body is always vulnerable) is getting questionable and Cerrone is just so much better everywhere except its close in the clinch (they are both excellent).

Cerrone's head movement still sucks but his reactionary takedown's / speed have changed everything at WW. He only loses if he fights dumb and Brown takes him out super early in an exchange. If I was Cerrone I'd be ready to teep the shit out of that frail body charging at me.

 Last edit: 07/12/2016 06:28

soberstone   United States. Dec 07 2016 06:31. Posts 2641


  On December 06 2016 12:21 jvilla777 wrote:
Swanson moves a lot and is hard to hit, however Choi has the height and reach + this is going to be a striking match. I love Cub but Choi is winning this one.



I don't disagree with the pick but if you don't think Cub will mix in level changes and wrestling with that movement you are underestimating his grappling credentials and Jackson's probable advice.

If you want to bet Choi, I'd do it when the line hits 160 - 180ish fight day, not at -220 where it's at now

 Last edit: 07/12/2016 06:34

alejandicto   . Dec 07 2016 17:16. Posts 633

I just realize Emil Meek is the guy who KO palhares


https://streamable.com/jlnc


soberstone   United States. Dec 08 2016 01:10. Posts 2641


  On December 07 2016 16:16 alejandicto wrote:
I just realize Emil Meek is the guy who KO palhares


https://streamable.com/jlnc



Just my own personal MMA "worldview": (esp after rewatching fights)

I think Mein is going to murder him. I am big on Mein. He's 1 of the cleanest strikers in all of MMA (Masvidal-eque but slower and hits harder) All of his losses were to high competition after he 10-8'd Thiago Alves, and ran into the Matt Brown zombie after he did insane damage. That was a wild fight - people should watch it.

Meek is just the heavy hitting guy who KO'd Palheras and is a bit chinny himself.

Yes, there is a layoff but this shouldn't even be close unless Meek has become 5x better and Mein 5x worse. If Mein is tense and nervous, he could get laid out, if he's loose and on point, he'll have him out of there in 3-4 minutes tops.

Fave line on all cards is hitting the under (incase Meek lands clean early) and Mein itd.

 Last edit: 08/12/2016 01:12

 
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