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UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis - Page 2

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Baalim   Mexico. Dec 08 2016 06:10. Posts 34246

I dont like Brown at all I think he is stiff, sloppy and very hittable, the only thing going for him is his well known relentless aggression and as Stim mentioned Cerrone isnt very good against pressure.

Cerrone sure should be a favorite but at those odds I see more value betting on Brown than on Cerrone

Ex-PokerStars Team Pro Online 

Floofy   Canada. Dec 08 2016 06:33. Posts 8708

Choi doi reminds me a little of early mcgregor.

We know his stand up is great, and he has amazing power.
That being said, there is a lot of question marks on the rest of his game. His ufc fights have all been very short.

There is no question mark on Cub. We know he is very hard to KO. He lasted 5 round against Frankie. He is really good everywhere.
At those odds i def see value on Swanson.

Choi has looked amazing recently, but he only fought low ranks fighters.
Swanson is a major step up in competition.

Its not rare to see someone do really good against low level ufc fighters and then do a total fluke once they face high level competition (sage, means, etc).

james9994: make note dont play against floofy, ;( 

alejandicto   . Dec 08 2016 15:31. Posts 865

After a lot of thinking I just bet on Brown at +240. 30 bucks to win 102


soberstone   United States. Dec 09 2016 06:30. Posts 2662


  On December 08 2016 14:31 alejandicto wrote:
After a lot of thinking I just bet on Brown at +240. 30 bucks to win 102



If I'm taking Brown, it's the round 1 prop at +675. Just one man's opinion, but he's not beating Cerrone over any reasonable period of time.


iakim322   United States. Dec 09 2016 07:04. Posts 1335

Not much value for gut feels but Cerrone has distractions coming into this and watching I think an embedded and the stare downs, want to say he looks/feels off. And his recent psychology strategy of having his aw schucks, almost overly friendly demeanor in fight week to weigh ins doesn't work vs the RDAs or Diazs or Matt Browns of the world. Of course those two are a lot better than Matt Brown. And Cerrone really is better everywhere except possibly the clinch. Cerrone by body kick into tko or follow up submission seems likely. Just wonder if Matt Brown can zombie mode and capitalize if a less than A version of Cerrone shows up

I like Vannata and Kennedy a lot. Holloway and Choi but a bit. Kinda wanna see Pettis win and I didn't get on Choi before his line jumped up pretty dramatically. Hoping and expecting line to shift back down at least a little bit since Swanson is a public friendly figure. Like that under in Mein/Meek fight. And thought I was gonna be on Cerrone but instead may throw a tiny bit on Brown or probably just pass

Should be a pretty fun card even without Rumble/Cormier


PuertoRican   United States. Dec 09 2016 10:04. Posts 13041


  On December 09 2016 06:04 iakim322 wrote:
Not much value for gut feels but Cerrone has distractions coming into this and watching I think an embedded and the stare downs, want to say he looks/feels off. And his recent psychology strategy of having his aw schucks, almost overly friendly demeanor in fight week to weigh ins doesn't work vs the RDAs or Diazs or Matt Browns of the world. Of course those two are a lot better than Matt Brown. And Cerrone really is better everywhere except possibly the clinch. Cerrone by body kick into tko or follow up submission seems likely. Just wonder if Matt Brown can zombie mode and capitalize if a less than A version of Cerrone shows up

I like Vannata and Kennedy a lot. Holloway and Choi but a bit. Kinda wanna see Pettis win and I didn't get on Choi before his line jumped up pretty dramatically. Hoping and expecting line to shift back down at least a little bit since Swanson is a public friendly figure. Like that under in Mein/Meek fight. And thought I was gonna be on Cerrone but instead may throw a tiny bit on Brown or probably just pass

Should be a pretty fun card even without Rumble/Cormier


Cerrone looks the same to me.

If anyone looks off it's Matt Brown. He's super emotional this time and is using some newfound hatred for Cerrone to fuel his fire. People who act like he is acting are usually trying to hide fear or some other emotion.

Also, Cerrone's "recent" psychology isn't really recent. He has been acting the same way for several years during fight week and during the weigh-in.

If you're gonna bet Brown, bet his KO/TKO line at +450 or better. His style won't allow him to win a decision here.

Rekrul is a newb 

gebbstet   Sweden. Dec 09 2016 17:54. Posts 391

Pettis missed weight (148), holloway will still be eligible for belt according to Dana.


PuertoRican   United States. Dec 09 2016 18:29. Posts 13041


Rekrul is a newb 

iakim322   United States. Dec 09 2016 18:59. Posts 1335

Yea meant I was going to throw a dart on Brown itd or ko/tko, not straight. My odds just weren't reloading at the time so didn't know. Really will probably just pass anyways.

Not so recent for cerrone (he started it by hiring a psychologist after getting into it with Nate in fight week and disaappointing himself on fight night like he thought he had in a cpl big moments before) but I still read him as being a little taken aback that Brown wasn't just going along with it and buddying up to him like others have. But yea this is in all likelihood bullshit that I'm seeing and I do agree that Browns sudden 'beef' with Cerrone seems contrived


iakim322   United States. Dec 09 2016 19:01. Posts 1335

Definitely don't think Brown is afraid or something like that though. By most accounts I've read or heard, he asked for this fight

He does have to feel some pressure. And he's kind of an all in or nothing guy who's on the wrong side of thirty. Maybe he'll surprise with a retirement announcement if he gets his shit kicked in by Cerrone

 Last edit: 09/12/2016 19:05

PuertoRican   United States. Dec 09 2016 19:14. Posts 13041





Max Holloway (145) vs. Anthony Pettis (148*)
Donald Cerrone (170.5) vs. Matt Brown (171)
Cub Swanson (146) vs. Doo Ho Choi (145.5)
Tim Kennedy (186) vs. Kelvin Gastelum (185)
Jordan Mein (170) vs. Emil Meek (170.5)
Nikita Krylov (206) vs. Misha Cirkunov (205)
Olivier Aubin-Mercier (156) vs. Drew Dober (156)
Valerie Letourneau (117.5**) vs. Viviane Pereira (114)
Mitch Gagnon (135.5) vs. Matthew Lopez (136)
John Makdessi (155) vs. Lando Vannata (156)
Jason Saggo (155) vs. Rustam Khabilov (158.5***)
Zach Makovsky (125) vs. Dustin Ortiz (125)

* Pettis has forfeited 20% of his purse to his opponent.
** Letourneau has forfeited 20% of her purse to her opponent.
*** Khabilov has forfeited 20% of his purse to his opponent.

----------

Rekrul is a newbLast edit: 09/12/2016 23:08

soberstone   United States. Dec 09 2016 23:27. Posts 2662

Edit: Wrong thread

 Last edit: 09/12/2016 23:27

PuertoRican   United States. Dec 10 2016 06:33. Posts 13041





Rekrul is a newb 

PuertoRican   United States. Dec 10 2016 21:52. Posts 13041

My final picks:

• Holloway > Pettis
• Cerrone > Brown
• Choi > Swanson
• Kennedy > Gastelum
• Mein > Meek
• Cirkunov > Krylov
• Mercier > Dober
• Letourneau > Pereira
• Gagnon > Lopez
• Makdessi > Vannata
• Saggo > Khabilov
• Makovsky > Ortiz

Rekrul is a newb 

jvilla777   Australia. Dec 10 2016 23:31. Posts 1348

I ended up betting Pettis to win... just gut feeling.

Rest of my bets:

-To win: Brown, Choi, Kennedy, Mercier and Vannata
-Over 1.5 rd: Cirkunov/Krylov

longple: ur missing the point! this is an attempt to get away from the bumhuntmentality! 

jvilla777   Australia. Dec 10 2016 23:34. Posts 1348

Just felt like in a striking match Pettis will have the edge, obv Max can grapple/submit etc. but I feel like the fight will be a striking match mostly.

If it goes into the 2.5 round then I feel like Pettis is doomed based on his last fight, he was gassed after like 1.5 rds.

longple: ur missing the point! this is an attempt to get away from the bumhuntmentality! 

soberstone   United States. Dec 10 2016 23:41. Posts 2662

Bets:

+ Show Spoiler +

 Last edit: 11/12/2016 03:27

PuertoRican   United States. Dec 11 2016 00:28. Posts 13041

My DK teams:

1. Mercier, Cirkunov, Gagnon, Makovsky, Mein, Pettis (Sherdog MMA)
2.
3. Mercier, Cirkunov, Gagnon, Holloway, Mein, Saggo ($33 team)
4.
5. Mercier, Cirkunov, Gagnon, Holloway, Mein, Saggo ($5 single entry)
6.
7. Mercier, Cirkunov, Gagnon, Holloway, Mein, Saggo ($4 satellite)
8.
9. Mercier, Brown, Choi, Gagnon, Letourneau, Mein ($3 team)
10. Mercier, Choi, Cirkunov, Gagnon, Holloway, Meek ($3 team)
11. Mercier, Cerrone, Choi, Gagnon, Meek, Pettis ($3 team)
12. Mercier, Cerrone, Cirkunov, Holloway, Letourneau, Meek ($3 team)
13. Mercier, Cerrone, Cirkunov, Kennedy, Makovsky, Swanson ($3 team)
14. Mercier, Cerrone, Cirkunov, Gastelum, Holloway, Makdessi ($3 team)
15. Choi, Cirkunov, Gagnon, Gastelum, Mein, Pettis ($3 team)
16. Cerrone, Cirkunov, Holloway, Mein, Saggo, Swanson ($3 team)
17. Mercier, Cirkunov, Holloway, Mein, Saggo, Vannata ($3 team)
18. Mercier, Cirkunov, Gagnon, Kennedy, Khabilov, Ortiz ($3 team)
19. Mercier, Gagnon, Kennedy, Khabilov, Krylov, Ortiz ($3 team)
20. Mercier, Gagnon, Holloway, Krylov, Mein, Saggo ($3 team)
21. Cerrone, Choi, Krylov, Mein, Pettis, Saggo ($3 team)
22. Mercier, Cerrone, Cirkunov, Gagnon, Letourneau, Pettis ($3 team)
23. Mercier, Cirkunov, Gagnon, Letourneau, Makdessi, Mein ($3 team)
24.
25. Mercier, Cirkunov, Gagnon, Holloway, Mein, Saggo ($3 3-max)
26. Mercier, Cirkunov, Holloway, Kennedy, Makdessi, Mein ($3 3-max)
27. Brown, Choi, Cirkunov, Letourneau, Mein, Vannata ($3 3-max)
28.
29. Mercier, Brown, Cirkunov, Gagnon, Holloway, Mein ($1)
30. Cerrone, Choi, Cirkunov, Mein, Pettis, Saggo ($1)
31.
32. Cerrone, Cirkunov, Gagnon, Mein, Pettis, Saggo ($1 single entry)

Rekrul is a newb 

soberstone   United States. Dec 11 2016 01:03. Posts 2662

Good win for Oritz, surprised he was able to win the scrambles, I thought Zach would win.

Joe Rogan very pretty biased though, I had it 29-28 Ortiz (2 and 3 for Ortiz) but 3 was almost a toss-up.


PuertoRican   United States. Dec 11 2016 01:05. Posts 13041

Ortiz 2 & 3. I missed R1.

Rekrul is a newb 

 
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