TUF 24 Finale: Johnson vs. Elliott

Date: Saturday, December 3rd
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass): 01:00 LP.net / 4pm PST / 7pm EST
Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1): 02:00 LP.net / 5pm PST / 8pm EST
Main Card (Fox Sports 1): 4:00 LP.net / 7pm PST / 10pm EST
Live Streams: http://firstrowus1.eu/




Main Card (Fox Sports 1)

Demetrious Johnson (24-2-1) vs. Tim Elliott (13-6-1) (Flyweight Championship)
Joseph Benavidez (24-4) vs. Henry Cejudo (10-1) (Flyweight)
Jake Ellenberger (31-11) vs. Jorge Masvidal (30-11) (Welterweight)
Ion Cutelaba (12-2) vs. Jared Cannonier (8-1) (Light Heavyweight)
Sara McMann (9-3) vs. Alexis Davis (17-6) (Women's Bantamweight)
Brandon Moreno (12-3) vs. Ryan Benoit (9-4) (Flyweight)

Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1)

Gray Maynard (12-5-1) vs. Ryan Hall (5-1) (Featherweight)
Rob Font (12-2) vs. Matt Schnell (9-2) (Bantamweight)
Dong Hyun Kim (13-8-3) vs. Brendan O'Reilly (6-2) (Lightweight)
Kailin Curran (4-3) vs. Jamie Moyle (3-1) (Women's Strawweight)

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Elvis Mutapcic (15-4-1) vs. Anthony Smith (25-12) (Middleweight)
Josh Stansbury (8-2) vs. Devin Clark (6-1) (Middleweight)

Other

- Jake Collier was expected to face Josh Stansbury at the event. However, Collier pulled out of the fight in late October citing injury and was replaced by Devin Clark on October 28.
- The Ultimate Fighter: Latin America bantamweight winner Alejandro Perez was scheduled to face Rob Font at the event, but pulled out on November 24. Perez was replaced by Matt "Danger" Schnell on November 27.

First impression of the match-ups:

• Johnson > Elliott
• Benavidez > Cejudo
• Masvidal > Ellenberger
• Cutelaba > Cannonier
• McMann > Davis
• Hall > Maynard
• Font > Schnell
• Moyle > Curran
• Stansbury vs. Clark (dunno)
• Mutapcic vs. Smith (dunno)
• Kim vs. O'Reilly (dunno)
• Benoit > Moreno

As fun as the fights in TUFs were, neither of them is even close to standing a chance vs MM. UFC should just close the flyweight division at this point

How do u know Elliot won against ogikubo? :O

On November 27 2016 22:29 alejandicto wrote: How do u know Elliot won against ogikubo? :O

Results were leaked awhile ago.

Elliott has nothing for Mighty Mouse. He's tall, long, gets hit a lot in the face, easy to take down, and won't be able to submit MM. There's a reason why Elliott was cut from the UFC awhile ago.

As much as I enjoyed this season, I don't think any of them had something to offer to MM. Maybe one of the heavy hitter could have luckboxed it. Other than that, I have no idea.

Elliot is a fun guy to watch though, rather see a guy who just goes for it than some technician whose gonna lose anyway. I love his fight with Joe B.

His fight with MM will be fun while it lasts.

The chances of a leg-lock specialist who's in the UFC based on TUF KOing Grey Maynard are so high its sad.

Would be like a Greek tragedy if they were to engage in the 50/50 position, Maynard did a great job defending leg-locks, and then Hall threw a hammer fist off his back and turned his lights out.

Never has a chin fallen so far - Chuck Liddell and Dan Henderson have nothing on Grey Maynard.

Obviously most intriguing fight on the card is Joe B vs Cejudo. I've thought Joe B was over the hill and therefore a little over-rated for a while now - but when it comes down to it I think he'll beat Cejudo because hes tougher mentally and physically.

I think Cejudo gets ahead early but Benevidez outworks and outsmarts him for a close decision, but I wouldn't be surprised if Cejudo pulls it off.

Edit: Is it 5 rounds or 3? If it's 3 that's a big plus for Cejudo.

On November 28 2016 01:51 soberstone wrote: Obviously most intriguing fight on the card is Joe B vs Cejudo. I've thought Joe B was over the hill and therefore a little over-rated for a while now - but when it comes down to it I think he'll beat Cejudo because hes tougher mentally and physically. I think Cejudo gets ahead early but Benevidez outworks and outsmarts him for a close decision, but I wouldn't be surprised if Cejudo pulls it off. Edit: Is it 5 rounds or 3? If it's 3 that's a big plus for Cejudo.

Joe vs. Henry is 3 rounds, while MM vs. Elliott is 5 rounds.

IMO, Joe is better in every area of MMA than Henry, aside from kicking. Yes, I also think Joe's MMA wrestling is better than Henry's, mostly cuz both have shown us what their MMA wrestling looks like, and Henry hasn't been able to... (what's the word) ...bring his collegiate + Olympic wrestling skills over into MMA.

Henry lacks power and output, and I'd be really surprised if he got Joe down once. Joe is the better puncher, hits harder, more aggro, better MMA wrestling, and will be up in Henry's face pressuring him if he wants to. Either way, I expect this to go to a decision, unless Joe lands the perfect shot.

There's also that "post-title fight performance" where people who get their ass beat or get finished in a title fight end up looking less elite in their following fight. Henry's last fight was the TKO loss to Mighty Mouse, while Joe is on a 5-fight win streak and 4 of his last wins were over the best wrestlers in the division not named Mighty Mouse: Dustin Ortiz, John Moraga, Ali Bagautinov, and Zach Makovsky.

Clark is going from 185 to 205 for this fight.

Schnell is going from 125 to 135 for this fight.

Cannonier is going from heavyweight to light heavyweight for this fight.

On November 28 2016 02:12 PuertoRican wrote: Show nested quote + On November 28 2016 01:51 soberstone wrote: Obviously most intriguing fight on the card is Joe B vs Cejudo. I've thought Joe B was over the hill and therefore a little over-rated for a while now - but when it comes down to it I think he'll beat Cejudo because hes tougher mentally and physically. I think Cejudo gets ahead early but Benevidez outworks and outsmarts him for a close decision, but I wouldn't be surprised if Cejudo pulls it off. Edit: Is it 5 rounds or 3? If it's 3 that's a big plus for Cejudo. Joe vs. Henry is 3 rounds, while MM vs. Elliott is 5 rounds. IMO, Joe is better in every area of MMA than Henry, aside from kicking. Yes, I also think Joe's MMA wrestling is better than Henry's, mostly cuz both have shown us what their MMA wrestling looks like, and Henry hasn't been able to... (what's the word) ...bring his collegiate + Olympic wrestling skills over into MMA. Henry lacks power and output, and I'd be really surprised if he got Joe down once. Joe is the better puncher, hits harder, more aggro, better MMA wrestling, and will be up in Henry's face pressuring him if he wants to. Either way, I expect this to go to a decision, unless Joe lands the perfect shot. There's also that "post-title fight performance" where people who get their ass beat or get finished in a title fight end up looking less elite in their following fight. Henry's last fight was the TKO loss to Mighty Mouse, while Joe is on a 5-fight win streak and 4 of his last wins were over the best wrestlers in the division not named Mighty Mouse: Dustin Ortiz, John Moraga, Ali Bagautinov, and Zach Makovsky.

All good points that I mostly agree with, except that I think even though Joe is on a streak, he's looked unimpressive for how good he is considered, which is clear #2 to DJ.

Last 5 fights:

Tim Elliot - Elliot actually dumped him a couple times before he sank in an awesome choke, Elliot is aggro as hell and Joe took advantage like a pro, props to Joe, he did what he should have done.

Dustin Ortiz - Outclasses and does a little better than Ortiz everywhere, as expected, but Ortiz is competitive enough to make it a fight and gets plenty of offense off himself. Not a steamrolling but a clean win.

John Moraga - Then he fights John Moraga (decent upper-tier journeyman) and wins two rounds via wrestling but doesnt hurt him, then Moraga hurts Joe B in round 3 but then gets taken down and outgrappled again. Benevidez should be destroying John Moraga, not battling out a W.

Ali Bagautinov - I bet Ali in this fight because he was a big time dog. Joe B won but it was a pretty bad performance and very close fight that EPO Ali B wins. 29-28 fight on my cards and very close.

Zach Makovsky - Easier matchup for Joe than Ali because Zach is a worse striker, but again, pretty close fight. Not dominance, just a little better and wins a competitive clear decision.

So I'm saying Henry Cejudo might be better than Bagautinov and Makovsky - we still don't know. He beat Formiga who is def on those guys level. He also may be a tougher matchup for Joe B as well - maybe easier, who knows. But now Joe's a year older and Cejudo should theoretically still be improving. He's more athletic and younger, and Joe B got taken down multiple times by Ali and Zach, I expect Cejudo to land some as well.

All that said, I agree with the Joe pick - because like I said he's not going to fold, and hes more well-rounded for sure and is a proven, savvy winner. As for your analysis of who's better where - saying Joe B is better everywhere, we'll see. My opinion is that on the feet, Joe is more diverse and explosive but Cejudo is actually a way more technical boxer and has a better chin and better defense - Joe B is pretty wild. Wrestling wise I disagree with you, Cejudo took down DJ - Joe B has been taken down by worse wrestlers, but it's still a mute point because Cejudo's takedowns are only good for points, Joe is a far better submission grappler and Cejudo won't be able to hold him down. Gas tank goes to Joe. So is he better everywhere? I dunno, but I just think he'll mix it all together better. I just think its close and a lot of people are going to write off Cejudo, and I wouldn't.

Betting wise, give me Cejudo by decision at +250 and I'll bet him. Right now he's +205 by decision. If the money comes in big the other way and I can get Joe B (Scorecards = No Action) at like -150, I'll take that because he's def more likely to hit a sub and/or get a late finish by breaking Cejudo. Cejudo finishing Joe would be shocking, maybe Joe gets frustrated if hes losing early and Cejudo pulls a Mighty Mouse, but that's really doubtful. Most likely, if the line doesn't move, I'll look at betting Cejudo to make it close on the cards, whatever that Cejudo Points Handicap +3.5 at + money, hopefully like +150 or something.

Haha

Thoughts on odds that stick out to me right now:

Masvidal at -270 and is down to -195. I would have hit him at the original price, what a value right now.

Maynard is favored which I feel is wrong. Gotta rewatch some Hall stuff but Maynard shouldn't really be able to beat anyone who can grapple at this point.

McMann -210?.... As much as McMann should beat Davis, McMann loses fights she should win based on her individual skills all the time. Awful IQ, mental blocks, and no jiu-jitsu to make the wrestling anymore than top-time points. Her win over Jessica Eye was unimpressive as fuck.

Moreno opened at -175 vs Benoit, he's now at -120. I think Moreno guillotining Smolka along with other impressive performances supposedly on TUF seems like the original line was justified. Benoit is just touch a tough guy with heavy hands and decent all-around, looks like Moreno subbing him is damn likely he's been RnC'd in his last 2 losses.

They'll be using a small cage for this event.

Small cage usually means more action and more finishes.

There is going to be another Flyweight match?

My bet:
Benavidez + Masvidal. 40 bucks to win 89

Demetrious Johnson (124.5) vs. Tim Elliott (125) – for flyweight title
Joseph Benavidez (125.5) vs. Henry Cejudo (125.5)
Jake Ellenberger (170.25) vs. Jorge Masvidal (171)
Jared Cannonier (204) vs. Ion Cutelaba (205.5)
Alexis Davis (134.75) vs. Sara McMann (135.5)
Ryan Benoit (125.5) vs. Brandon Moreno (126)
Ryan Hall (145) vs. Gray Maynard (145.5)
Rob Font (135.5) vs. Matt Schnell (135.5)
“Maestro” Dong Hyun Kim (155.5) vs. Brendan O’Reilly (155)
Kailin Curran (116) vs. Jamie Moyle (115)
Elvis Mutapcic (185) vs. Anthony Smith (185.5)
Devin Clark (205.5) vs. Josh Stansbury (204.5)

On December 02 2016 18:53 alejandicto wrote: There is going to be another Flyweight match? My bet: Benavidez + Masvidal. 40 bucks to win 89

Oops.

I just updated the OP.

I'm glad they moved Moreno vs. Benoit to the main card.

I placed a bet on Cannonier by KO at +465.

Cutelaba has an insane chin but Cannonier, atleast at heavyweight, hits very hard should transfer fine to LHW.

I favor Cutelaba slightly overall but I really like both guys and think if Cannonier wins, its by KO - Cutelaba is super aggressive and may go down to well-times counter.

Just placed a bet on Ellenberger rd 1 at +775 - it's certainly possible and is his only way to win. Masvidal is obviously way better and should win if it goes past a round.

+ Johnson by decision @ +151.

Johnson certainly amazing and I'd be shocked if he lost but Elliot being a little underrated here in terms of toughness, I think hes good and tough enough to last and lose a fun but clear decision L. You have to do some pretty crazy shit to finish Elliot but DJ is obviously more than capable of beating him up and get a late sub. Just think there's value here.

Elliot via early headkick or some shit would be crazy but Bisping koIng Rockhold was probably more shocking..... Elliot rd 1 +2700 took a little stab.

Nuke

Bets - Waiting for fight day to make Straight Single Bets (Walkout demeanor, last minute info, etc): 2015 - +150 UNIT / 15 % ROI SOBERSTONE IS BACK, I CAN FEEL IT! (Forget undisciplined 2016 spewtard Soberstone that's down big time)

+ Show Spoiler +

Shit thats a lot of bets, And my bet is just Benavidez + Masvidal xD

On December 03 2016 04:04 soberstone wrote: Bets - Waiting for fight day to make Straight Single Bets (Walkout demeanor, last minute info, etc): 2015 - +150 UNIT / 15 % ROI SOBERSTONE IS BACK, I CAN FEEL IT! (Forget undisciplined 2016 spewtard Soberstone that's down big time) + Show Spoiler + STRAIGHT BETS 12/3/16 9:00pm UFC Fighting 1701 Elvis Mutapcic +115* vs Anthony Smith Looking to bet Stansberry or Clarke if either gets +115, Maynard decision at +300, Davis SU if she hits +160, Cejudo +205 or Joe B if the line crashes to near even PROPS BETS: 12/3/16 11:59pm MMA Props Fighting 1015 Elliot wins in round 1 +2700* vs Any other result 12/3/16 11:59pm MMA Props Fighting 1011 Johnson wins by 5 round decision +151* vs Not Johnson by 5 round decision 12/3/16 11:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1215 Ellenberger wins in round 1 +775* vs Any other result 12/3/16 11:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1329 Cannonier wins by TKO/KO +465* vs Any other result 12/3/16 7:30pm MMA Props Fighting 2004 Fight won’t go 3 round distance -205* vs Clark / Stansbury goes 3 round distance 12/16 8:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1905 Kim wins inside distance +195* vs Not Kim inside distance 12/3/16 8:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1927 Kim wins by submission +654* vs Any other result 2/3/16 8:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1905 Kim wins inside distance +195* vs Not Kim inside distance 12/3/16 7:30pm MMA Props Fighting 2004 Fight won’t go 3 round distance -205* vs Clark / Stansbury goes 3 round distance 12/3/16 8:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1905 Kim wins inside distance +195* vs Not Kim inside distance 12/3/16 8:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1927 Kim wins by submission +654* vs Any other result 12/3/16 10:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1407 Davis wins by 3 round decision +324* vs Not Davis by 3 round decision PARLAYS: 412318152-1 12/3/16 4:02am $5.00 $1,676.50 Pending 12 Team Parlay 12/3/16 11:30pm UFC Fighting 1202 Jorge Masvidal -230* vs Jake Ellenberger 12/3/16 11:59pm MMA Props Fighting 1008 Not Elliot by 5 round decision -3155* vs Elliot wins by 5 round decision 12/3/16 11:59pm MMA Props Fighting 1141 Cejudo points handicap +3½ -145* vs Benavidez points handicap 12/3/16 11:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1339 Cannonier (scorecards = no action) +218* vs Cutelaba (scorecards = no action) 12/3/16 10:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1441 Davis points handicap +3½ -205* vs McMann points handicap 12/3/16 10:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1542 Moreno points handicap -3½ +100* vs Benoit points handicap 12/3/16 9:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1606 Not Maynard inside distance -353* vs Maynard wins inside distance 12/3/16 9:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1710 Not Smith inside distance -270* vs Smith wins inside distance 12/3/16 8:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1810 Not Curran inside distance -485* vs Curran wins inside distance 12/3/16 8:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1905 Kim wins inside distance +195* vs Not Kim inside distance 12/3/16 7:30pm MMA Props Fighting 2004 Fight won’t go 3 round distance -205* vs Clark / Stansbury goes 3 round distance 12/3/16 7:00pm MMA Props Fighting 2142 Font points handicap -3½ -190* vs Schnell points handicap 12/3/16 3:13am $15.00 $28.37 Pending 3 Team Parlay 12/3/16 8:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1910 Not O'Reilly inside distance -366* vs O'Reilly wins inside distance 12/3/16 7:30pm MMA Props Fighting 2004 Fight won’t go 3 round distance -205* vs Clark / Stansbury goes 3 round distance 12/3/16 7:00pm MMA Props Fighting 2142 Font points handicap -3½ -190* vs Schnell points handicap 412316752-1 12/3/16 3:11am $10.00 $38.31 Pending 10 Team Parlay 12/3/16 11:59pm MMA Props Fighting 1008 Not Elliot by 5 round decision -3155* vs Elliot wins by 5 round decision 12/3/16 11:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1208 Not Ellenberger by 3 round decision -735* vs Ellenberger wins by 3 round decision 12/3/16 11:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1308 Not Cannonier by 3 round decision -860* vs Cannonier wins by 3 round decision 12/3/16 10:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1432 Any other result -1770* vs McMann wins by submission 12/3/16 10:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1508 Not Benoit by 3 round decision -310* vs Benoit wins by 3 round decision 12/3/16 9:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1616 Any other result -900* vs Maynard wins in round 1 12/3/16 8:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1810 Not Curran inside distance -485* vs Curran wins inside distance 12/3/16 8:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1912 Not O'Reilly by 3 round decision -420* vs O'Reilly wins by 3 round decision 12/3/16 7:30pm MMA Props Fighting 2020 Any other result -2300* vs Clark wins in round 3 12/3/16 7:00pm MMA Props Fighting 2142 Font points handicap -3½ -190* vs Schnell points handicap 412316579-1 12/3/16 3:04am $5.00 $44,885.39 Pending 11 Team Parlay 12/3/16 11:59pm MMA Props Fighting 1011 Johnson wins by 5 round decision +151* vs Not Johnson by 5 round decision 12/3/16 11:59pm MMA Props Fighting 1107 Cejudo wins by 3 round decision +225* vs Not Cejudo by 3 round decision 12/3/16 11:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1211 Masvidal wins by 3 round decision +172* vs Not Masvidal by 3 round decision 12/3/16 11:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1310 Not Cutelaba inside distance -111* vs Cutelaba wins inside distance 12/3/16 10:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1407 Davis wins by 3 round decision +324* vs Not Davis by 3 round decision 12/3/16 10:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1542 Moreno points handicap -3½ +100* vs Benoit points handicap 12/3/16 9:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1640 Hall (scorecards = no action) -210* vs Maynard (scorecards = no action) 12/3/16 8:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1839 Moyle (scorecards = no action) -140* vs Curran (scorecards = no action) 12/3/16 8:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1905 Kim wins inside distance +195* vs Not Kim inside distance 12/3/16 7:30pm MMA Props Fighting 2004 Fight won’t go 3 round distance -205* vs Clark / Stansbury goes 3 round distance 12/3/16 7:00pm MMA Props Fighting 2109 Font wins inside distance +126* vs Not Font inside distance 12/3/16 2:43am $10.00 $500.56 Pending 8 Team Parlay 12/3/16 11:30pm UFC Fighting 1202 Jorge Masvidal -230* vs Jake Ellenberger 12/3/16 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1502 Brandon Moreno -145* vs Ryan Benoit 12/3/16 11:59pm MMA Props Fighting 1026 Any other result -420* vs Johnson wins in round 1 12/3/16 11:59pm MMA Props Fighting 1110 Not Benavidez inside distance -270* vs Benavidez wins inside distance 12/3/16 11:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1310 Not Cutelaba inside distance -111* vs Cutelaba wins inside distance 12/3/16 10:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1403 Davis / McMann goes 3 round distance -205* vs Fight won’t go 3 round distance 2/3/16 8:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1905 Kim wins inside distance +195* vs Not Kim inside distance 12/3/16 7:30pm MMA Props Fighting 2004 Fight won’t go 3 round distance -205* vs Clark / Stansbury goes 3 round distance 12/3/16 2:33am $15.00 $29.25 Pending 12/3/16 8:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1905 Kim wins inside distance +195* vs Not Kim inside distance 12/3/16 2:32am $10.00 $65.40 Pending 12/3/16 8:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1927 Kim wins by submission +654* vs Any other result 12/2/16 11:11pm $25.00 $162.34 Pending 5 Team Parlay 12/3/16 11:59pm UFC Fighting 1101 Henry Cejudo/Joseph Benavidez Over 2½ -235* 12/3/16 11:30pm UFC Fighting 1202 Jorge Masvidal -235* vs Jake Ellenberger 12/3/16 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1401 Alexis Davis/Sara McMann Over 2½ -240* 12/3/16 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1502 Brandon Moreno -145* vs Ryan Benoit 12/3/16 9:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1640 Hall (scorecards = no action) -185* vs Maynard (scorecards = no action) 12/2/16 11:08pm $10.00 $265.61 Pending 6 Team Parlay 12/3/16 11:59pm UFC Fighting 1001 Tim Elliott/Demetrious Johnson Over 4½ +115* 12/3/16 11:59pm UFC Fighting 1101 Henry Cejudo/Joseph Benavidez Over 2½ -235* 12/3/16 11:30pm UFC Fighting 1202 Jorge Masvidal -235* vs Jake Ellenberger 12/3/16 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1401 Alexis Davis +140* vs Sara McMann 12/3/16 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1502 Brandon Moreno -145* vs Ryan Benoit 12/3/16 9:30pm UFC Fighting 1601 Gray Maynard/Ryan Hall Over 1½ -180* 12/2/16 11:03pm $35.00 $94.87 Pending 3 Team Parlay 12/3/16 11:30pm UFC Fighting 1202 Jorge Masvidal -235* vs Jake Ellenberger 12/3/16 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1502 Brandon Moreno -145* vs Ryan Benoit 12/3/16 9:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1640 Hall (scorecards = no action) -185* vs Maynard (scorecards = no action)

After seeing your bets, I have to assume that you don't like money.

Good to see you keep these threads/discussions going. When'd you turn into such a snarky bitch though? Was it before or after you finally won on some two dollar draftkings lineups? Just saying. I don't like a lot of those bets either but well, if you want to talk in definitives or near absolutes in regards to fight betting, back it up with some real bets. Not by throwing a couple big macs worth of bets on what basically amounts to modified parlays

I like and am going to be on Moreno, Hall, Kim, and strangely like Ellenberger in this spot. And not necessarily just by his usual first round or fail method. I also may or may not like money though

He's always been snarky but hey, if you enjoy doing all the work and being disliked I'll take it.

Hopefully your wrong but you've been on point lately, no need to even look at the picks if they make you nauseous.

Care to criticize with some substance or just be a total dick.

I've always been nothing but classy to Rican but he's just got one of those personalities, and I hope for your sake its just keyboard, that gets you nowhere quick in life. And I know that sounds harsh but I don't know how to put it in a more concise and accurate way.

I guess what I'm asking is, did I do something to offend you or is this how you normally interact with acquaintances?

And also what bets do you really dislike so we can poke fun when someone looks stupid

On December 03 2016 21:40 iakim322 wrote: I like and am going to be on Moreno, Hall, Kim, and strangely like Ellenberger in this spot. And not necessarily just by his usual first round or fail method. I also may or may not like money though

You think dllenberger does it via Classic rd 1 blowout style or do you think he's actually made an insane resurgence leaving Edmond - or just a gut/matchup thing

On December 03 2016 23:52 soberstone wrote: Show nested quote + On December 03 2016 21:40 iakim322 wrote: I like and am going to be on Moreno, Hall, Kim, and strangely like Ellenberger in this spot. And not necessarily just by his usual first round or fail method. I also may or may not like money though You think dllenberger does it via Classic rd 1 blowout style or do you think he's actually made an insane resurgence leaving Edmond - or just a gut/matchup thing

Oh nm you answered. I dunno man he's not rly on Jorge's level anywhere over a prolonged time I don't think. Maybe he fights in spurts, has big moments, and gets a td or two - plausible since Jorge isn't a pressure fighter. I couldn't put Jorge in all those parlays without the rd 1 hedge cuz you know Jorge will get get lazy and make 1 mistake at some point - always does, but he's tough as shit

Also what particularly do you not like? I bet it's the cejudo bet. Either I'm an idiot or I see something everyone else is missing cuz ppl I trust are on Joe hard but I think it's a really hard matchup for him.

My DK teams:

1. Benavidez, Font, Hall, Kim, Moyle, Stansbury ($9)
2.
3. Cutelaba, Font, Hall, Moreno, Moyle, Smith ($3)
4.
5. Benavidez, Benoit, Davis, Font, Masvidal, Stansbury ($3 3-max)
6. Cannonier, Hall, Johnson, Kim, Smith, Stansbury ($3 3-max)
7. Benavidez, Cutelaba, Hall, Kim, Moyle, Smith ($3 3-max)
8.
9. Cutelaba, Font, Kim, Moreno, Moyle, Stansbury ($2)
10. Cannonier, Davis, Hall, Johnson, Moreno, Schnell ($2)
11.
12. Cutelaba, Font, Hall, Moreno, Moyle, Stansbury ($1 Satellite)

My final picks:

First impression of the match-ups:

• Johnson > Elliott
• Benavidez > Cejudo
• Masvidal > Ellenberger
• Cutelaba > Cannonier
• Davis > McMann
• Hall > Maynard
• Font > Schnell
• Moyle > Curran
• Stansbury > Clark
• Smith > Mutapcic
• Kim > O'Reilly
• Moreno > Benoit

This is Clarke (green and athletic) vs stansburry (slow, technical, tough)

Awful performance y stansberrry not much growth by Clarke

I thought stansberrry would finish him late if Clarke didn't land something big early, and he honestly should have - clarkes defense and chin are trash

Terrible performance from Stansbury. He seemed tired at the end of Round 1, and never got his second wind.

He could've easily won if he had energy to push the pace throughout the fight, but he essentially lost due to inactivity.

At least we get to fade Devin Clark for his next fight.

Nice performance from Smith in R2. He scared me in R1 when he didn't try to get off his back.

Weird fight. I guess you could say at least cuz mutaptic never been finished, known For cardio, and smith not a ko artist

I guess mostly gut feel like the permanently lazy late fight coaster in Masvidal has a good chance of letting someone like a possibly more patient, improved Jake steal Rd 3. Even if hes not actually all that effective in doing so and Masvidal may (probably) completely outclass Jake in Rd 2, late Rd 1. Enough for me not to like the superior fighter at -275 and go the other way instead. We'll see though. Obviously not a usual winning strategy to admit one is a superior fighter then go the other way. And I do remember that Jake was inexplicably passive in Rd 3 vs Rory even though he hadn't really won more than a minute or two of that fight

Also don't have faith in Masvidal's finishing instincts to put it away during Jake's inevitable valleys of activity to null the above thinking

Ugly fight from Moyle & Curran, but I give it to Moyle 2-1 at least. One judge might score it 30-27 for Moyle.

30-27 for Moyle? I though R3 was for Curran for sure.

On December 04 2016 01:24 iakim322 wrote: Also don't have faith in Masvidal's finishing instincts to put it away during Jake's inevitable valleys of activity to null the above thinking

I think Masvidal/Ellenberger will go to a decision, unless Ellenberger lands a big shot to end it ITD.

Masvidal isn't a power puncher, and I don't think his volume punching will get a TKO here.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a split-decision.

On December 04 2016 01:27 Montrachet wrote: 30-27 for Moyle? I though R3 was for Curran for sure.

Curran looked good at the beginning of R3 when Moyle tried a shitty take down and Curran ended up on top. Once they got back to the feet, it was back and forth and Moyle was landing the better strikes, imo. Curran lost the round when Moyle got the take down with 58 seconds left and landed some GnP.

Getting taken down with a minute or so left in a round usually means you lose the round, unless you clearly did a lot of damage earlier in the round, which Curran didn't.

Either way, Curran will get cut now. She's 1-4 in the UFC, and almost lost that fight she won.

On December 04 2016 01:28 PuertoRican wrote: Show nested quote + On December 04 2016 01:24 iakim322 wrote: Also don't have faith in Masvidal's finishing instincts to put it away during Jake's inevitable valleys of activity to null the above thinking I think Masvidal/Ellenberger will go to a decision, unless Ellenberger lands a big shot to end it ITD. Masvidal isn't a power puncher, and I don't think his volume punching will get a TKO here. I wouldn't be surprised to see a split-decision.   On December 04 2016 01:27 Montrachet wrote: 30-27 for Moyle? I though R3 was for Curran for sure. Curran looked good at the beginning of R3 when Moyle tried a shitty take down and Curran ended up on top. Once they got back to the feet, it was back and forth and Moyle was landing the better strikes, imo. Curran lost the round when Moyle got the take down with 58 seconds left and landed some GnP. Getting taken down with a minute or so left in a round usually means you lose the round, unless you clearly did a lot of damage earlier in the round, which Curran didn't. Either way, Curran will get cut now. She's 1-4 in the UFC, and almost lost that fight she won.

Curran = 1 round fighter with low IQ

Well god damn... I didn't expect Kim to turn into a pure grappler for this fight.

I have it Kim 2-1, but he was a terrible pick for DK.

Sick had Kim sub at +675, Kim itd at +195 and Kim in all DK and he cant finish the scrub. Unreal frusterating to watch.

Oreilly makes everyone a grappler even tho hes terrible and gasses and then should get subbed. garbage

did kim win the decision?

edit nvmd. 29-28 3x for kim

Font ITD even money - steaming

On December 04 2016 02:08 traxamillion wrote: did kim win the decision?

Yah ofcourse

Lets go Font knock this fucker out

Schnell was brave, but he needs to go back down to 125 and not take fights on short notice against guys like Rob Font.

Thank you. Finally what should happen happens.

On December 04 2016 02:16 PuertoRican wrote: Schnell was brave, but he needs to go back down to 125 and not take fights on short notice against guys like Rob Font.

Yah that was a mismatch

sweet knee from Font

Ridiculously accurate knee

Whoao money poured on Hall.

I have Hall no scorecards -180 gotta takle Maynard decisio +240 to couple with that.

I guess Maynard could KO him but I'm thinking thats not very likely, Hall has a good chin and is either all the way out or in all the time

Get ready for some 50/50

Maynard wins and somehow Maynard/Edgar 4 happens in 2017.

JK. Let's go Hall

Maynard will loose his shit lol.

I actually give R1 to Hall, but the judges might hate his style and give Maynard the round, even though Maynard didn't land anything.

Round 2 = Hall, clearly. Maynard didn't do anything this round.

Both round to Hall. Thats the funniest fight I have seen in a while. Hall just drops to the ground when Maynards rushes. He also tumble when Maynards gets close. Maynards has no idea what to do.

I'm surprised Maynard's completely shook off the couple flush kicks to the face

Hall 3-0. 2-1 at worst.

Maynard did nothing in Rounds 2 and 3.

Don't understand why Maynard didn't just start following Hall to the ground late Rd 2 or at least Rd 3 even if that's clearly Halls strength. Already clearly losing the fight. All you risk is a tweak and tapping out. Loss is the same. Not like he was risking getting viciously KOed or anything

Maynard is pathetic. What were you expecting. I thought hed be willing to try and grijnd it out.

On December 04 2016 02:53 iakim322 wrote: Don't understand why Maynard didn't just start following Hall to the ground late Rd 2 or at least Rd 3 even if that's clearly Halls strength. Already clearly losing the fight. All you risk is a tweak and tapping out. Loss is the same. Not like he was risking getting viciously KOed or anything

Yup. If he wasn't a world class wrestler at one point I'd get it but fuck

Did you not maybe train for 50/50?

I enjoyed watching that fight even more than I expected. Against an idiot like Maynard, that was check-mate.

yea i like hall's game that was unique and interesting. disagree with the booing (at least in hall's direction)

Moreno tko +879. Opened at +420.

Hes a good strong striker and could tko on the ground..... I think people are taking the Smolka guillotine to mean thats his specialty

On December 04 2016 03:01 traxamillion wrote: yea i like hall's game that was unique and interesting. disagree with the booing (at least in hall's direction)

It was a paradise to watch for anyone who had neither in DK because nothing happened.

The funny thing is - even if you are amazing - what is the gameplan to beat Hall?

Moreno 1-0. Benoit started pressing the action a little too late.

Moreno 2-0. Benoit started to do good on the feet once Moreno stopped bouncing around the cage, but Moreno got a TD with 2 minutes left in the round and stayed on top for 1 minute before getting another TD and finished the round on top.

Moreno 3-0


Moreno messed his knee up when he tried a spinning kick. None of the commentators mentioned it cuz Moreno hid it well, but he was super wobbly for the last 2 minutes of the fight. Hopefully it's nothing serious.

What the hell. 29-28 Benoit. Almost as good as 30-27 Daniele Taylor last week. Where the eff are they getting these judges

Moreno has a great ceiling. Little sloppiness but I men, he's 22

ROFL! Yay. Fucked again taking the points.

Still as a W net but this is absurd. How can you give 1 single round to Benoit.

On December 04 2016 03:36 iakim322 wrote: What the hell. 29-28 Benoit. Almost as good as 30-27 Daniele Taylor last week. Where the eff are they getting these judges Moreno has a great ceiling. Little sloppiness but I men, he's 22

Yah I also had Ham decision in that one. Ofcourse.

how the fk could a judge score that fight for benoit

judges that terrible making that bad of decisions should be summarily fired.

other judge had it right with 30-27

and you might argue 29-28 moreno but that would be wrong.

but 0 justification for giving benoit 2 rounds

I didn't even think Taylor winning last week was such a bad robbery. Coulda seen 29-28 tho I did have it for Ham. But for two out of 3 supposed professionals to have given that round 1 of backpedaling and maybe 2 strikes landed was absolutely mind blowing. Those two should definitely just be blacklisted

Same thing for the dude that just somehow gave Benoit 2 rounds. Paycheck for the night should be revoked

Let's go Alexis Davis. Don't have action. But I just wanna stop watching any meaningful McMann fights

Round 1: I guess it goes to McMann, but I can see how Davis could get it as well.

getting submitted by McMann is sad.

Props to anyone who would have ever picked that outcome.

Damn... I just realized we have 2 UFC cards next week. One on Friday, and one on Saturday.

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Abdurakhimov

&

UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis

Haha awesome. Some Nick Diaz shit at the end by Cannonier

Cutelaba vs. Cannonier = FOTN

Ok, im a fan :D

yeah... and he is trying to lose me again

I missed it, but I know Im mad that Cannonier couldnt put him out. $$$$$$$ COME ON! i saw some shots he landed on twitter. dudes a machine

On December 04 2016 04:40 ERASA wrote: yeah... and he is trying to lose me again

It's not everyday you see a black Jew, especially in MMA.

On December 04 2016 04:50 PuertoRican wrote: Show nested quote + On December 04 2016 04:40 ERASA wrote: yeah... and he is trying to lose me again It's not everyday you see a black Jew, especially in MMA.

Is Cannonier Jewish?

On December 04 2016 04:52 soberstone wrote: Show nested quote + On December 04 2016 04:50 PuertoRican wrote:   On December 04 2016 04:40 ERASA wrote: yeah... and he is trying to lose me again It's not everyday you see a black Jew, especially in MMA. Is Cannonier Jewish?

Yeah.

So is Michel Prazeres.

That sucks for Ellenberger.

Great Jorge performance. Good heart by Jake. Terrible knee attempt by Jake. Strange as shit ending

After DHK not sinking in the RNC, Cannonier not getting the KO, Moreno not winning by -3.5, I think I deserve that.

Herb Dean is shit, that wasnt really his fault but still

Herb basically asking around on what he should do was amusing. Definitely an odd situation though. Has that ever happened before?

McMann winning via submission and Ellenberger winning via fluke toe-TKO ruined my night on DK. They both win decisions in those match-ups the majority of the time.

What the fk Yves Lavigne

R1 Cejudo. 9-9 cuz of the point deduction

BS point deduction.

A bit unrelated but dumb world where Yoel Romero keeps getting to Yoel Romero it up without any point deductions but this warranted one

Stann super pro Benavidez or is that just me?

Think Rd 2 and 3 could really have gone either way. Wide variety of possible scores

The exchanges are very fast and they collide every time. It's very hard to determine who really gets the best of these exchanges. I can easily see a draw here.

Benavidez sharper. But Cejudo always moving forward

28-28?

R1 Cejudo. 9-9 cuz of the point deduction.

R2 was close but I give it to JoeB. He was more active and Cejudo slowed down his pace a lot when compared to R1.

JoeB won R3 during the last 2 minutes. He stepped up his pace and Cejudo was slowing down and didn't ramp it up until the last 30 seconds but still got hit more than he landed.

Joseph Benavidez 29-27, imo.

On December 04 2016 05:40 PuertoRican wrote: R1 Cejudo. 9-9 cuz of the point deduction. R2 was close but I give it to JoeB. He was more active and Cejudo slowed down his pace a lot when compared to R1. JoeB won R3 during the last 2 minutes. He stepped up his pace and Cejudo was slowing down and didn't ramp it up until the last 30 seconds but still got hit more than he landed. Joseph Benavidez 29-27, imo.

guess im biased.

30-26. Too many jokes

On December 04 2016 05:41 soberstone wrote: Show nested quote + On December 04 2016 05:40 PuertoRican wrote: R1 Cejudo. 9-9 cuz of the point deduction. R2 was close but I give it to JoeB. He was more active and Cejudo slowed down his pace a lot when compared to R1. JoeB won R3 during the last 2 minutes. He stepped up his pace and Cejudo was slowing down and didn't ramp it up until the last 30 seconds but still got hit more than he landed. Joseph Benavidez 29-27, imo. guess im biased.

Cejudo could've won if his cardio didn't drop after R1. He seemed like the slightly better fighter tonight, but he just couldn't keep up the fast pace he set in R1.

rofl.

w/e.

pretty sure i made excellent bets tonight and have gotten absolutely fucked all the way through. feel fine about it.

Feels like it should've been 28-28. But fine with 29-27 Joe B. Too bad Cejudo had no chance thanks to a bogus pt deduction and one judge scored the round where Cejudo knocked Joe down and effectively swarmed him for...Joe

everyone will score it a draw bcuz of bs pt deduction, gauruntee. joe b didnt win rd 1 or 2.

media that is.

either way, rican bashing my picks earlier, cejudo clearly a way better value and probably deserved to win although ill admit im biased. only fight i called wrong was davis vs mcmann. whatever bet you were bashing stands for itself.

On December 04 2016 05:45 iakim322 wrote: Feels like it should've been 28-28. But fine with 29-27 Joe B. Too bad Cejudo had no chance thanks to a bogus pt deduction and one judge scored the round where Cejudo knocked Joe down and effectively swarmed him for...Joe

Even if Cejudo didn't lose a point, he still would've lost a decision. That one judge who scored it 30-26 for Benavidez made no sense.

Cejudo 27-29
Benavidez 30-26
Benavidez 29-27

Two judges gave the close rounds to Benavidez.

----------

My pick for the main event: Demetrious Johnson via R2 submission

Really wonder what can be done about judging long term. Scoring Rd 1 for Joe. Rd 1 to Taylor last week. 2 Rds for Benoit. Completely egregious

On December 04 2016 05:46 soberstone wrote: everyone will score it a draw bcuz of bs pt deduction, gauruntee. joe b didnt win rd 1 or 2. media that is. either way, rican bashing my picks earlier, cejudo clearly a way better value and probably deserved to win although ill admit im biased. only fight i called wrong was davis vs mcmann. whatever bet you were bashing stands for itself.

You're taking this MMA betting stuff a little too serious.

Less emotion will help you in the long run.

On December 04 2016 05:48 PuertoRican wrote: Show nested quote + On December 04 2016 05:45 iakim322 wrote: Feels like it should've been 28-28. But fine with 29-27 Joe B. Too bad Cejudo had no chance thanks to a bogus pt deduction and one judge scored the round where Cejudo knocked Joe down and effectively swarmed him for...Joe Even if Cejudo didn't lose a point, he still would've lost a decision. That one judge who scored it 30-26 for Benavidez made no sense. Cejudo 27-29 Benavidez 30-26 Benavidez 29-27 Two judges gave the close rounds to Benavidez. ---------- My pick for the main event: Demetrious Johnson via R2 submission

Not really. Tho I'm fine with it. It's not really because a guy who had it 30-26...that scorecard should just be thrown out. So I'm gonna go ahead and say it was 1-1 in judges for close rounds

Sorry but between Ham last week, and then all of the bs tonight, I'm salty. I should have made a ton of money had the judging been correct and the flukes been a bit more minimal. that's the game though. Never been through a run quite this bad through the last few months in terms of luck.

guess depending on this last fight its slightly up or down, feels like a punch to the gut.

That guy was clearly never going to give a close Rd to Cejudo. So in an optimal world, thrown out

Someone just posted this on Sherdog.

On December 04 2016 05:52 soberstone wrote: Sorry but between Ham last week, and then all of the bs tonight, I'm salty. I should have made a ton of money had the judging been correct and the flukes been a bit more minimal. that's the game though. Never been through a run quite this bad through the last few months in terms of luck. guess depending on this last fight its slightly up or down, feels like a punch to the gut.

I went on a 4-month* losing streak last year. Took me a lot of self control + breaks from betting to get through it alive.

It helps that I take breaks from betting while school is in session. I'd probably go crazy otherwise.

MEDIA SCORES
MMAMania.com 29-27 Benavidez
Brian Knapp
Sherdog.com 29-27 Benavidez
SevereMMA.com 29-27 Benavidez
Seán Sheehan
SevereMMA.com 29-27 Benavidez
Danny Segura
MMAFighting.com 29-29 DRAW
MMAJunkie.com 28-28 DRAW
Steven Rondina
BleacherReport.com 28-28 DRAW
Chris Nelson
Sherdog.com 28-28 DRAW
José Youngs
FanSided.com 28-28 DRAW
Mookie Alexander
BloodyElbow.com 28-28 DRAW
Rob Tatum
CombatPress.com 28-28 DRAW
Ryan Frederick
WrestlingObserver.com 28-28 DRAW
Nick Baldwin
BloodyElbow.com 28-28 DRAW
Mike Sloan
Sherdog.com 27-29 Cejudo
Diego Peixoto
MMABrasil.com.br 27-29 Cejudo
Steve Duncan
mma.uno 27-29 Cejudo
Matthew Wells
mmalatestnews.com 27-29 Cejudo
Steven Kelliher
Tapology.com 27-29 Cejudo

That settles it. Robbery. More for Cejudo even w/ pt deduction.

" Elliot rd 1 +2700 took a little stab."

Why not just barely miss making up for everything hahahah.

That was nuts.

There's been worse judging in a vacuum robberies than Joe getting that 2nd Rd. It wasn't a wipeout either way. You do need to be less emotional or you'll think every third fight is a robbery. The pt deduction and fact that 1 gave Joe Rd 1 are the actual genuinely bad parts

On December 04 2016 06:04 iakim322 wrote: There's been worse judging in a vacuum robberies than Joe getting that 2nd Rd. It wasn't a wipeout either way. You do need to be less emotional or you'll think every third fight is a robbery. The pt deduction and fact that 1 gave Joe Rd 1 are the actual genuinely bad parts

I'm including the deduction as part of the robbery. Judging/reffing, its all outside a bettors control. And it was a horrible deduction clearly. You are right about the emotion though. But it is what it is. I just proved it should have been a draw at a minimum according to an unbiased consensus. I'm just letting off steam on a forum and think 29-28 for Joe B is a bad scorecard.

Deduction was definitely fucked up. Never seen a ref warn that he'll immediately take a pt away on the next one after a first, incidental low blow. Almost like he pigeonholed himself into doing it once it did happen

Man. Elliot's the man.

Sick submission defense from Tim Elliott. He was close to getting subbed several times.

+ $45 on dimes.

+ $150 on dk.

Cejudo lost was a 1.5k swing or if it should of been a draw half that.

Sorry for the freakout.

Night guys.

DK: won $20, invested $32, -$12 loss.

Not much to say about this event that I haven't said already.

We have 2 UFC cards back-to-back next week, so that's gonna be interesting...

Ramble:

I've cooled off (AKA smoked a bowl) and man, Elliot vs DJ was insane.

Me and my buddy really were like saying how we had this weird feeling about Elliot doing some crzy shit in rd 1 because hes so active and hungry and DJ plays twitch more than he trains I bet. He's still a pro's pro but clearly he wasn't mentally in the right spot when the fight began.

I can't believe DJ escaped that guilotine. Elliot applies that particular sub at a world class level MMA level with his long limbs locked in leaning on the hip and bridging perfectly, the choke as deep as it can look, and I saw no blatant mistake, it looked perfect.

DJ just rides it out perfectly even though he couldn't possibly have created the angle to really loosen it until his arm gassed? Because hes short.... he couldnt bridge high enough to avoid Elliots legs and hips just sucking him in. Insane, he's relaxed and strong as shit to somehow create some little crevice where the blood is just barely flowing to his brain by creating some space with pure technique and strength pushing a little piece of Elliot away, unworldly, to escape that with Tim Elliot.

& then Elliot was sick with the sub defense like you said, and it was also his ability to contort his body and leverage it on the ground so DJ never was able to really apply more than 2 close subs.His MMA wrestling and scrambling has just gotten so effective. I think hes way more live vs Joe B in a rematch 5 rounds.

Just goes to show, you want to beat someone that good, dont expect to do it at their own game. They are so different. DJ short super traditional technique and footwork and opposite body type. DJ's IQ and control when hes pressuring and able to set shit up is to good but relies on timing calibrating. Elliots insane unorthodox offbeat random timing style and him being effective by just saying fuckit and being craftier and tougher reminds me of Tony Ferguson in a way. They are tough as shit and will always fight their fight, doesnt matter who its against. Someone finally made DJ look human for the 1st time in a while because it took tactics out of the equation, he just makes you fight reactively for long periods of time without getting to reset and plan. The downside, his gameplan could have been better past rd 2.

I think DJ's next fight would draw more action now except that itll proly be Benevidez and the version I saw tonight didn't look up to par IMO, do you guys want to see that? - hes not on the same level athletically anymore. I think its time for DJ to move up to fight Cruz vs Garbrandt winner, TJ would get stuck in a grudge match with Dodson. Do we really want to watch DJ at -800 against rematches, blackbelt grapplersl like Reis or Formiga (easy matchups), and guys who haven't improved enough yet? I'm waiting for the Horiguchi to wreck another dude or two, then in a couple years the Morenos, Ben Ngyun, or maybe even mini Pettis guys will put together runs. I say beat Cruz or Garbrandt, come back down then beating Horiguchi in his prime, and then wiping out the next gen too of that crew and hes the GOAT.

Where can I watch the replay of DJ vs Elliot? Only torrent?

On December 07 2016 16:56 impact69 wrote: Where can I watch the replay of DJ vs Elliot? Only torrent?

http://fullmmavideos.com/demetrious-johnson-vs-tim-elliott-full-fight-video/