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TUF 24 Finale: Johnson vs. Elliott

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PuertoRican   United States. Nov 27 2016 22:25. Posts 10683

Date: Saturday, December 3rd
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass): 01:00 LP.net / 4pm PST / 7pm EST
Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1): 02:00 LP.net / 5pm PST / 8pm EST
Main Card (Fox Sports 1): 4:00 LP.net / 7pm PST / 10pm EST
Live Streams: http://firstrowus1.eu/




Main Card (Fox Sports 1)

Demetrious Johnson (24-2-1) vs. Tim Elliott (13-6-1) (Flyweight Championship)
Joseph Benavidez (24-4) vs. Henry Cejudo (10-1) (Flyweight)
Jake Ellenberger (31-11) vs. Jorge Masvidal (30-11) (Welterweight)
Ion Cutelaba (12-2) vs. Jared Cannonier (8-1) (Light Heavyweight)
Sara McMann (9-3) vs. Alexis Davis (17-6) (Women's Bantamweight)
Brandon Moreno (12-3) vs. Ryan Benoit (9-4) (Flyweight)

Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1)

Gray Maynard (12-5-1) vs. Ryan Hall (5-1) (Featherweight)
Rob Font (12-2) vs. Matt Schnell (9-2) (Bantamweight)
Dong Hyun Kim (13-8-3) vs. Brendan O'Reilly (6-2) (Lightweight)
Kailin Curran (4-3) vs. Jamie Moyle (3-1) (Women's Strawweight)

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Elvis Mutapcic (15-4-1) vs. Anthony Smith (25-12) (Middleweight)
Josh Stansbury (8-2) vs. Devin Clark (6-1) (Middleweight)

Other

- Jake Collier was expected to face Josh Stansbury at the event. However, Collier pulled out of the fight in late October citing injury and was replaced by Devin Clark on October 28.
- The Ultimate Fighter: Latin America bantamweight winner Alejandro Perez was scheduled to face Rob Font at the event, but pulled out on November 24. Perez was replaced by Matt "Danger" Schnell on November 27.

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Rekrul is a newbLast edit: 02/12/2016 22:03

PuertoRican   United States. Nov 27 2016 22:27. Posts 10683

First impression of the match-ups:

• Johnson > Elliott
• Benavidez > Cejudo
• Masvidal > Ellenberger
• Cutelaba > Cannonier
• McMann > Davis
• Hall > Maynard
• Font > Schnell
• Moyle > Curran
• Stansbury vs. Clark (dunno)
• Mutapcic vs. Smith (dunno)
• Kim vs. O'Reilly (dunno)
• Benoit > Moreno

Rekrul is a newb 

Spitfiree   Bulgaria. Nov 27 2016 22:56. Posts 7885

As fun as the fights in TUFs were, neither of them is even close to standing a chance vs MM. UFC should just close the flyweight division at this point


alejandicto   . Nov 27 2016 23:29. Posts 657

How do u know Elliot won against ogikubo? :O


PuertoRican   United States. Nov 27 2016 23:53. Posts 10683


  On November 27 2016 22:29 alejandicto wrote:
How do u know Elliot won against ogikubo? :O


Results were leaked awhile ago.

Elliott has nothing for Mighty Mouse. He's tall, long, gets hit a lot in the face, easy to take down, and won't be able to submit MM. There's a reason why Elliott was cut from the UFC awhile ago.

Rekrul is a newb 

Montrachet   Canada. Nov 28 2016 00:47. Posts 106

As much as I enjoyed this season, I don't think any of them had something to offer to MM. Maybe one of the heavy hitter could have luckboxed it. Other than that, I have no idea.


soberstone   United States. Nov 28 2016 02:36. Posts 2642

Elliot is a fun guy to watch though, rather see a guy who just goes for it than some technician whose gonna lose anyway. I love his fight with Joe B.

His fight with MM will be fun while it lasts.

 Last edit: 28/11/2016 02:45

soberstone   United States. Nov 28 2016 02:42. Posts 2642

The chances of a leg-lock specialist who's in the UFC based on TUF KOing Grey Maynard are so high its sad.

Would be like a Greek tragedy if they were to engage in the 50/50 position, Maynard did a great job defending leg-locks, and then Hall threw a hammer fist off his back and turned his lights out.

Never has a chin fallen so far - Chuck Liddell and Dan Henderson have nothing on Grey Maynard.

 Last edit: 28/11/2016 02:45

soberstone   United States. Nov 28 2016 02:51. Posts 2642

Obviously most intriguing fight on the card is Joe B vs Cejudo. I've thought Joe B was over the hill and therefore a little over-rated for a while now - but when it comes down to it I think he'll beat Cejudo because hes tougher mentally and physically.

I think Cejudo gets ahead early but Benevidez outworks and outsmarts him for a close decision, but I wouldn't be surprised if Cejudo pulls it off.

Edit: Is it 5 rounds or 3? If it's 3 that's a big plus for Cejudo.

 Last edit: 28/11/2016 02:52

PuertoRican   United States. Nov 28 2016 03:12. Posts 10683


  On November 28 2016 01:51 soberstone wrote:
Obviously most intriguing fight on the card is Joe B vs Cejudo. I've thought Joe B was over the hill and therefore a little over-rated for a while now - but when it comes down to it I think he'll beat Cejudo because hes tougher mentally and physically.

I think Cejudo gets ahead early but Benevidez outworks and outsmarts him for a close decision, but I wouldn't be surprised if Cejudo pulls it off.

Edit: Is it 5 rounds or 3? If it's 3 that's a big plus for Cejudo.


Joe vs. Henry is 3 rounds, while MM vs. Elliott is 5 rounds.

IMO, Joe is better in every area of MMA than Henry, aside from kicking. Yes, I also think Joe's MMA wrestling is better than Henry's, mostly cuz both have shown us what their MMA wrestling looks like, and Henry hasn't been able to... (what's the word) ...bring his collegiate + Olympic wrestling skills over into MMA.

Henry lacks power and output, and I'd be really surprised if he got Joe down once. Joe is the better puncher, hits harder, more aggro, better MMA wrestling, and will be up in Henry's face pressuring him if he wants to. Either way, I expect this to go to a decision, unless Joe lands the perfect shot.

There's also that "post-title fight performance" where people who get their ass beat or get finished in a title fight end up looking less elite in their following fight. Henry's last fight was the TKO loss to Mighty Mouse, while Joe is on a 5-fight win streak and 4 of his last wins were over the best wrestlers in the division not named Mighty Mouse: Dustin Ortiz, John Moraga, Ali Bagautinov, and Zach Makovsky.

Rekrul is a newb 

PuertoRican   United States. Nov 28 2016 08:19. Posts 10683

Clark is going from 185 to 205 for this fight.

Schnell is going from 125 to 135 for this fight.

Cannonier is going from heavyweight to light heavyweight for this fight.

Rekrul is a newb 

soberstone   United States. Nov 28 2016 09:16. Posts 2642


  On November 28 2016 02:12 PuertoRican wrote:
Show nested quote +


Joe vs. Henry is 3 rounds, while MM vs. Elliott is 5 rounds.

IMO, Joe is better in every area of MMA than Henry, aside from kicking. Yes, I also think Joe's MMA wrestling is better than Henry's, mostly cuz both have shown us what their MMA wrestling looks like, and Henry hasn't been able to... (what's the word) ...bring his collegiate + Olympic wrestling skills over into MMA.

Henry lacks power and output, and I'd be really surprised if he got Joe down once. Joe is the better puncher, hits harder, more aggro, better MMA wrestling, and will be up in Henry's face pressuring him if he wants to. Either way, I expect this to go to a decision, unless Joe lands the perfect shot.

There's also that "post-title fight performance" where people who get their ass beat or get finished in a title fight end up looking less elite in their following fight. Henry's last fight was the TKO loss to Mighty Mouse, while Joe is on a 5-fight win streak and 4 of his last wins were over the best wrestlers in the division not named Mighty Mouse: Dustin Ortiz, John Moraga, Ali Bagautinov, and Zach Makovsky.


All good points that I mostly agree with, except that I think even though Joe is on a streak, he's looked unimpressive for how good he is considered, which is clear #2 to DJ.

Last 5 fights:

Tim Elliot - Elliot actually dumped him a couple times before he sank in an awesome choke, Elliot is aggro as hell and Joe took advantage like a pro, props to Joe, he did what he should have done.

Dustin Ortiz - Outclasses and does a little better than Ortiz everywhere, as expected, but Ortiz is competitive enough to make it a fight and gets plenty of offense off himself. Not a steamrolling but a clean win.

John Moraga - Then he fights John Moraga (decent upper-tier journeyman) and wins two rounds via wrestling but doesnt hurt him, then Moraga hurts Joe B in round 3 but then gets taken down and outgrappled again. Benevidez should be destroying John Moraga, not battling out a W.

Ali Bagautinov - I bet Ali in this fight because he was a big time dog. Joe B won but it was a pretty bad performance and very close fight that EPO Ali B wins. 29-28 fight on my cards and very close.

Zach Makovsky - Easier matchup for Joe than Ali because Zach is a worse striker, but again, pretty close fight. Not dominance, just a little better and wins a competitive clear decision.

So I'm saying Henry Cejudo might be better than Bagautinov and Makovsky - we still don't know. He beat Formiga who is def on those guys level. He also may be a tougher matchup for Joe B as well - maybe easier, who knows. But now Joe's a year older and Cejudo should theoretically still be improving. He's more athletic and younger, and Joe B got taken down multiple times by Ali and Zach, I expect Cejudo to land some as well.

All that said, I agree with the Joe pick - because like I said he's not going to fold, and hes more well-rounded for sure and is a proven, savvy winner. As for your analysis of who's better where - saying Joe B is better everywhere, we'll see. My opinion is that on the feet, Joe is more diverse and explosive but Cejudo is actually a way more technical boxer and has a better chin and better defense - Joe B is pretty wild. Wrestling wise I disagree with you, Cejudo took down DJ - Joe B has been taken down by worse wrestlers, but it's still a mute point because Cejudo's takedowns are only good for points, Joe is a far better submission grappler and Cejudo won't be able to hold him down. Gas tank goes to Joe. So is he better everywhere? I dunno, but I just think he'll mix it all together better. I just think its close and a lot of people are going to write off Cejudo, and I wouldn't.

Betting wise, give me Cejudo by decision at +250 and I'll bet him. Right now he's +205 by decision. If the money comes in big the other way and I can get Joe B (Scorecards = No Action) at like -150, I'll take that because he's def more likely to hit a sub and/or get a late finish by breaking Cejudo. Cejudo finishing Joe would be shocking, maybe Joe gets frustrated if hes losing early and Cejudo pulls a Mighty Mouse, but that's really doubtful. Most likely, if the line doesn't move, I'll look at betting Cejudo to make it close on the cards, whatever that Cejudo Points Handicap +3.5 at + money, hopefully like +150 or something.

 Last edit: 28/11/2016 09:39

alejandicto   . Nov 29 2016 01:04. Posts 657



LOL


soberstone   United States. Nov 29 2016 07:20. Posts 2642

Haha


soberstone   United States. Nov 29 2016 07:50. Posts 2642

Thoughts on odds that stick out to me right now:

Masvidal at -270 and is down to -195. I would have hit him at the original price, what a value right now.

Maynard is favored which I feel is wrong. Gotta rewatch some Hall stuff but Maynard shouldn't really be able to beat anyone who can grapple at this point.

McMann -210?.... As much as McMann should beat Davis, McMann loses fights she should win based on her individual skills all the time. Awful IQ, mental blocks, and no jiu-jitsu to make the wrestling anymore than top-time points. Her win over Jessica Eye was unimpressive as fuck.

Moreno opened at -175 vs Benoit, he's now at -120. I think Moreno guillotining Smolka along with other impressive performances supposedly on TUF seems like the original line was justified. Benoit is just touch a tough guy with heavy hands and decent all-around, looks like Moreno subbing him is damn likely he's been RnC'd in his last 2 losses.




















PuertoRican   United States. Nov 30 2016 04:35. Posts 10683




They'll be using a small cage for this event.

Small cage usually means more action and more finishes.

Rekrul is a newbLast edit: 02/12/2016 04:35

alejandicto   . Dec 02 2016 19:53. Posts 657

There is going to be another Flyweight match?

My bet:
Benavidez + Masvidal. 40 bucks to win 89

 Last edit: 02/12/2016 20:21

PuertoRican   United States. Dec 02 2016 21:56. Posts 10683




Demetrious Johnson (124.5) vs. Tim Elliott (125) – for flyweight title
Joseph Benavidez (125.5) vs. Henry Cejudo (125.5)
Jake Ellenberger (170.25) vs. Jorge Masvidal (171)
Jared Cannonier (204) vs. Ion Cutelaba (205.5)
Alexis Davis (134.75) vs. Sara McMann (135.5)
Ryan Benoit (125.5) vs. Brandon Moreno (126)
Ryan Hall (145) vs. Gray Maynard (145.5)
Rob Font (135.5) vs. Matt Schnell (135.5)
“Maestro” Dong Hyun Kim (155.5) vs. Brendan O’Reilly (155)
Kailin Curran (116) vs. Jamie Moyle (115)
Elvis Mutapcic (185) vs. Anthony Smith (185.5)
Devin Clark (205.5) vs. Josh Stansbury (204.5)





  On December 02 2016 18:53 alejandicto wrote:
There is going to be another Flyweight match?

My bet:
Benavidez + Masvidal. 40 bucks to win 89


Oops.

I just updated the OP.

I'm glad they moved Moreno vs. Benoit to the main card.

Rekrul is a newbLast edit: 03/12/2016 02:07

soberstone   United States. Dec 03 2016 03:44. Posts 2642

I placed a bet on Cannonier by KO at +465.

Cutelaba has an insane chin but Cannonier, atleast at heavyweight, hits very hard should transfer fine to LHW.

I favor Cutelaba slightly overall but I really like both guys and think if Cannonier wins, its by KO - Cutelaba is super aggressive and may go down to well-times counter.

Just placed a bet on Ellenberger rd 1 at +775 - it's certainly possible and is his only way to win. Masvidal is obviously way better and should win if it goes past a round.

 Last edit: 03/12/2016 03:48

soberstone   United States. Dec 03 2016 03:57. Posts 2642

+ Johnson by decision @ +151.

Johnson certainly amazing and I'd be shocked if he lost but Elliot being a little underrated here in terms of toughness, I think hes good and tough enough to last and lose a fun but clear decision L. You have to do some pretty crazy shit to finish Elliot but DJ is obviously more than capable of beating him up and get a late sub. Just think there's value here.

Elliot via early headkick or some shit would be crazy but Bisping koIng Rockhold was probably more shocking..... Elliot rd 1 +2700 took a little stab.

 Last edit: 03/12/2016 04:57

 
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