UFC FN 101: Whittaker vs. Brunson

Date: Saturday, November 26th
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass): 00:30 LP.net / 3:30pm PST / 6:30pm EST
Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1): 02:00 LP.net / 5pm PST / 8pm EST
Main Card (Fox Sports 1): 4:00 LP.net / 7pm PST / 10pm EST
Live Streams: http://firstrowus1.eu/




Main Card (Fox Sports 1)

Robert Whittaker (16-4) vs. Derek Brunson (16-3) (Middleweight)
Jake Matthews (10-2) vs. Andrew Holbrook (11-1) (Lightweight)
Kyle Noke (22-9-1) vs. Omari Akhmedov (15-4) (Welterweight)
Yusuke Kasuya (9-2-2) vs. Alex Volkanovski (13-1) (Featherweight)
Tyson Pedro (4-0) vs. Khalil Rountree (4-1) (Light Heavyweight)
Seo Hee Ham (16-7) vs. Danielle Taylor (7-2) (Women's Strawweight)

Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1)

Dan Kelly (11-1) vs. Chris Camozzi (24-11) (Middleweight)
Damien Brown (16-9) vs. Jon Tuck (9-3) (Lightweight)
Richard Walsh (9-4) vs. Jonathan Meunier (7-1) (Welterweight)
Ben Nguyen (14-6) vs. Geane Herrera (9-2) (Flyweight)

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Dan Hooker (13-6) vs. Jason Knight (14-2) (Featherweight)
Marlon Vera (7-3-1) vs. Ning Guangyou (5-3-1) (Bantamweight)
Yao Zhikui (2-3) vs. Jenel Lausa (6-2) (Flyweight)

Other

- On October 21, it was announced that Dominique Steele pulled out of his scheduled bout against Kyle Noke due to an undisclosed injury. He was replaced by Omari Akhmedov on October 23.

First impression of the match-ups:

• Brunson > Whittaker
• Matthews > Holbrook
• Noke > Akhmedov
• Kasuya vs. Volkanovski (dunno)
• Kelly > Camozzi
• Brown > Tuck
• Walsh vs. Meunier (dunno)
• Nguyen > Herrera
• Hooker > Knight
• Yao vs. Lausa (dunno)
• Ham > Taylor
• Pedro > Rountree
• Vera > Ning

--- Nuked ---

Do Australians like New Zealanders?
Would they support a New Zealander vs an American?

penny paid SEO backlinkers wont realize forums usually have a no-folllow index gosh ... never learn

On November 23 2016 18:30 Minsk wrote: Do Australians like New Zealanders? Would they support a New Zealander vs an American?

Yes, people from New Zealand (Kiwis) are liked by people from Australia (Aussies).

Think of Kiwis as the little brother of Aussies.

Brunson might be as good as the top 4 MWs. He was whipping Romeros ass 2 years ago before he gassed and got finished in the 3rd. Hope he has an impressive performance.

On November 23 2016 21:09 PuertoRican wrote: Show nested quote + On November 23 2016 18:30 Minsk wrote: Do Australians like New Zealanders? Would they support a New Zealander vs an American? Yes, people from New Zealand (Kiwis) are liked by people from Australia (Aussies). Think of Kiwis as the little brother of Aussies.

New Zealand is Australia's Canada.

There's no heat in the beef, but there be beef. "Bloody Kiwis" being a common phrase, and joy in times of Kiwi failure being a common sensation.

no Hunt in this card is ridiculous

I think UFC offered Hunt a match against Dos Santos but Hunt refused the fight

Derek Brunson (186) vs. Robert Whittaker (185)
Andrew Holbrook (154) vs. Jake Matthews (155)
Omari Akhmedov (171) vs. Kyle Noke (170)
Yusuke Kasuya (156) vs. Alex Volkanovski (154)
Tyson Pedro (205) vs. Khalil Rountree (206)
Seo Hee Ham (115) vs. Danielle Taylor (115)
Chris Camozzi (186) vs. Daniel Kelly (186)
Damien Brown (154) vs. Jon Tuck (156)
Jonathan Meunier (171) vs. Richard Walsh (171)
Geane Herrera (125) vs. Ben Nguyen (126)
Dan Hooker (146) vs. Jason Knight (145)
Ning Guangyou (146) vs. Marlon Vera (144)
Jenel Lausa (125) vs. Yao Zhikui (127)*

*Yao Zhikui missed the flyweight limit by one pound. He made weight on a second attempt after initially weighing-in at 127 lbs.

On November 25 2016 01:45 Stim_Abuser wrote: Brunson might be as good as the top 4 MWs. He was whipping Romeros ass 2 years ago before he gassed and got finished in the 3rd. Hope he has an impressive performance.

I'm big on Brunson but the violent KO's have a common theme. When he lunges in with that left (usually twice in a row the way Woodley KO'd Lawler), he leaves his chin on a platter, and someone with a composed/accurate counter shot will likely put his lights out at some point if he keeps doing that.

I could see Rockhold, Belfort (irrelevant but still), and ironically Whittaker being the 3 MW's that are really likely to make him pay in that spot, but I'm still picking Brunson > Whittaker because I think that Jackson has probably pounded into Brunson's head that he can't do his typical beast-blitz right away or hes making a massive mistake.

He just needs to use his athleticism, size, and kicking range to frustrate Whittaker and clinch up as much as possible. Eventually if he works that game without making any mistakes in the pocket, hell get Whittaker down and beat the breaks off him or choke him out.

I feel like I have an unusually good read on a lot of these fights for some reason, doing a lot of prop stuff on Dimes.

Brunson > Whittaker via middle rounds GNP stoppage
Mathews > Holbrook via HL KO or late sub/GnP once Holbrook gives up
Noke > Akhmedov via late stoppage when Omari gasses - rd 3 +1400 Noke prop was gold IMO. Love Noke as a dog, but obv it could go either way.
Kasuya v Volkanovski - Dunno
Pedro v Roundtree - Dunno, but it will end quickly
Ham > Taylor via decision after landing 500 strikes - good candidate for FOTN
Camozzi > Kelly - I'm leaning decision because Kelly is so tough
Brown v Tuck - Dunno, but Tuck is way over-rated
Walsh > Meunier - Ugly shitty fight where Walsh outgrinds him and wins a close decision in his backyard
Ngyuen > Herrera - Love this fight, I think it will have a little of everything, will be very close, but Ngyuen will land more and have more top time
Hooker > Knight - Sharps seem to think there is value on Knight, I think Hooker picks him apart and mixes in some wrestling for a clear decision
Vera > Ning - Ning is truly awful. He has the skillset of a LHW, just looks for a chance to land a power haymaker and has decent TD's but no ground game. Vera should be able to pick him apart (footwork, kicks, technique) and sub him if he hurts him or winds up on top or in a scramble. Ning's only shot is a KO if Vera somehow gets stuck against the cage and Ning lands a lucky hay.

As a side note, I run the DraftKings league for the Sherdog MMA Betting Forum (separate from the general Sherdog forum). If any of you guys want to play in our weekly events, feel free to join up. It's $3 to buy in and the Top 2 get paid.

Here's the link for the Whittaker vs. Brunson event: https://www.draftkings.com/contest/draftteam/33185678

Here's the link to the Sherdog league thread for more information: http://forums.sherdog.com/threads/draftkings-leagues.3315313/

On November 26 2016 08:32 PuertoRican wrote: As a side note, I run the DraftKings league for the Sherdog MMA Betting Forum (separate from the general Sherdog forum). If any of you guys want to play in our weekly events, feel free to join up. It's $3 to buy in and the Top 2 get paid. Here's the link for the Whittaker vs. Brunson event: https://www.draftkings.com/contest/draftteam/33185678 Here's the link to the Sherdog league thread for more information: http://forums.sherdog.com/threads/draftkings-leagues.3315313/

Nice! I'll join for sure.

Joined the DK event. Exciting. Thanks for making it.

I like the 6 player format much better than 5 too, dunno if thats a recent change or what but I dig it.

Only pick I differ with you on Rican is Kelly vs Camozzi. I respect the pick just because Kelly is like the inverse of Uriah Hall but I just don't think he'll be able to get inside on Camozzi to work the Judo and make it ugly.

On November 26 2016 20:40 soberstone wrote: Only pick I differ with you on Rican is Kelly vs Camozzi. I respect the pick just because Kelly is like the inverse of Uriah Hall but I just don't think he'll be able to get inside on Camozzi to work the Judo and make it ugly.

My final picks:

• Brunson > Whittaker
• Matthews > Holbrook
• Akhmedov > Noke
• Volkanovski > Kasuya
• Kelly > Camozzi
• Brown > Tuck
• Meunier > Walsh
• Nguyen > Herrera
• Hooker > Knight
• Lausa > Yao
• Ham > Taylor
• Rountree > Pedro
• Vera > Ning

Oh well I guess I disagree on a few more since you flipped on the Noke and Roundtree fight as well.

I think Akhmedov's chin and gas tank are just too exploitable. Noke seems like a smart guy, should gameplan and exploit.

Roundtree fight is a coinflip but I'm basically picking Pedro because he seems athletic enough to match Roundtree and seems like stylistically kryptonite for Khalil's pathetic ground game - which very may well have improved. Hopefully it has because LHW needs a guy like him to get good.

Gonna be betting a little differently today and making them during walkouts because, call me crazy, I really do think I get more out of watching walkout demeanor than weigh-ins in terms of nuances and reads. Obviously already have my leans but I want to try and factor in that last little vibe and see if it proves meaningful over time.

Luckily on Dimes atleast you can finalize bets literally up until about 5 seconds before the fight starts.

On November 26 2016 21:48 soberstone wrote: Oh well I guess I disagree on a few more since you flipped on the Noke and Roundtree fight as well. I think Akhmedov's chin and gas tank are just too exploitable. Noke seems like a smart guy, should gameplan and exploit. Roundtree fight is a coinflip but I'm basically picking Pedro because he seems athletic enough to match Roundtree and seems like stylistically kryptonite for Khalil's pathetic ground game - which very may well have improved. Hopefully it has because LHW needs a guy like him to get good.

Omari Akhmedov took this fight on a little over 1 month notice (1 month + 5 days) and is flying from Miami to Australia, which means there's a chance he might slow down in Round 3, but I think he'll finish the fight before R3 starts.

Omari and Noke are former training partners at Jackson's MMA. Omari now trains at ATT in Florida with a ton of good fighters, but more importantly, ATT now has a section of UFC Dagestani fighters who train together, which includes: Omari Akhmedov, Sultan Aliev, Magomed Mustafaev, and a few others.

Two things made me switch sides: If Omari wasn't well-prepared, I don't think he'd take a fight on the other side of the world. Also, Omari knows how Noke fights and, I think he's going into this fight already knowing what he needs to do to exploit Noke's weaknesses, which he has plenty of.

----------

Regarding Rountree, he is faster, stronger, hits harder, and has better striking.

In his first fight on TUF, he got taken down but managed to regroup and finish his opponent in R2 when the guy couldn't get TDs anymore.

In his second fight on TUF, he got submitted and looked green.

In his third fight on TUF (I think he replaced someone), he fought one of the better grapplers on the show and stuffed his first TD attempt, which meant they were forced to stand. Rountree lit him up as the round progressed, both getting their shots off.

In the TUF Finale against Andrew Sanchez, Rountree fought a legit college wrestler who was the best grappler on that season of TUF. Sanchez ended up getting Rountree down several times, but Sanchez was tired after Round 1 because he put so much energy in getting the TDs and holding him down. Sanchez won via 3-round decision.

Tyson Pedro isn't a good wrestler, but he is a purple belt in BJJ. He is taking this fight on 3-weeks notice just like Rountree, but he has the hometown advantage and doesn't have to travel far. However, he is making his UFC debut and I believe him to be slower, a weaker striker, and not good enough to get TDs on Rountree.

This doesn't prove anything cause its a can but its all I could rly go off of with Pedro via limited footage. 7:00 in and then 8:20 in. Literally the reason I'm picking him in conjunction with how pathetic I think Roundtree's TDD looked (which could have def improved). If it has improved sig. you are right, Pedro's going to sleep.

On November 26 2016 22:52 soberstone wrote: This doesn't prove anything cause its a can but its all I could rly go off of with Pedro via limited footage. 7:00 in and then 8:20 in. Literally the reason I'm picking him in conjunction with how pathetic I think Roundtree's TDD looked (which could have def improved). If it has improved sig. you are right, Pedro's going to sleep.

The way I see it, unless Pedro worked a lot on his wrestling, it won't be good enough to get the TD, mostly cuz he isn't as fast as Rountree.

That being said, I do have Pedro in some DK lineups. I originally picked him to win, but then I actually did research and noticed my initial prediction was off a bit, so I had to rush to edit some teams. I finished with 4 minutes to spare, but still not 100% confident in my teams. Oh well.

I'll post them in a few minutes.

This first fight is fire. GREAT back and forth.

Lausa reminds me of Doo Hoo Choi with that handspeed.

Gonna need to work on his ground game, variety and killer instinct but very impressive and fun to watch.

And luckily no finish so thats a + for DK I'm assuming no1 here had him, I didn't.

Nice performance from Jenel Lausa.

He was Manny Pacquiao's sparring partner for his last boxing match.

My DK Lineup:


F Chris Camozzi
F Jake Matthews
F Ben Nguyen
F Kyle Noke
F Tyson Pedro
F Marlon Vera

Gotta prop bet on Vera by Sub @ +450 in this next fight.

My DK teams:

1. Akhmedov, Brown, Brunson, Meunier, Nguyen, Rountree (Sherdog MMA)
2.
3. Akhmedov, Brown, Brunson, Meunier, Nguyen, Rountree ($27 team)
4.
5. Brunson, Kelly, Matthews, Meunier, Pedro, Volkanovski ($5 team)
6.
7. Brown, Brunson, Nguyen, Noke, Rountree, Volkanovski ($3 team)
8. Brown, Matthews, Meunier, Rountree, Volkanovski, Whittaker ($3 team)
9. Brunson, Knight, Matthews, Pedro, Taylor, Volkanovski ($3 team)
10. Brunson, Hooker, Meunier, Nguyen, Pedro, Vera ($3 team)
11.
12. Hooker, Lausa, Nguyen, Pedro, Volkanovski, Whittaker ($3 3-max team)
13. Akhmedov, Kelly, Matthews, Nguyen, Rountree, Taylor ($3 3-max team)
14. Brunson, Kelly, Nguyen, Noke, Rountree, Tuck ($3 3-max team)
15.
16. Brunson, Lausa, Matthews, Nguyen, Noke, Pedro ($.25 team)
17. Brunson, Kelly, Matthews, Meunier, Pedro, Volkanovski ($.25 team)
18. Brunson, Hooker, Kelly, Nguyen, Pedro, Volkanovski ($.25 team)
19. Brunson, Hooker, Kasuya, Matthews, Nguyen, Pedro ($.25 team)

Fuck man I can't believe Vera didn't get a finish there, oh well, still solid.

Vera with his shitty fight IQ.

He improved with his new team, but still dumb as fuck.

Next bets Hooker SU and Hooker decision +175. I think he puts an ass-whooping on Knight but Knight's tough as hell.

Dude Hooker, keep your fucking hands up holy fuck!

Well atleast he has some of the best RnC defense I've ever seen.

OH MY GOD WHAT A FUCKING FIGHT!

Those score cards are an absolute disgrace - atleast the 30-26. That last round was Hooker's EASY an round 1 was very close. And a 10-8 for rd 2 for Knight is fine.

Next bet... Ngyuen at pickem.

Hooker was too relaxed and inactive.

Standard performance from Jason Knight.

So..... the first fight of this card was amazing. We are now 1 round into the 4th and they just keep getting better and better.

This is unreal entertainment IMO.

Herrera is getting outclassed but is still dangerous.

Ngyuen almost flawless performance.

Ben Nguyen with the 1 sided beat down.

Next bet... Walsch Decision @ +250

Derek Brunson is currently +105 @ 5dimes.

Crazy line movement on this entire card.

Yah. Lines were released really late that probably has something to do with it

Good performance by Meunier.

Walsh will get cut now, as he is 1-4 in his last 5.

Next bet.... over 2.5 Tuck/Brown -155

On November 27 2016 02:03 PuertoRican wrote: Good performance by Meunier. Walsh will get cut now, as he is 1-4 in his last 5.

Agree with Walsh getting cut.

I think Meunier is awful though and will fade him vs most decent WW's.

Dunno who I'd score that for but Brown deserves it more than Tuck who's just always been way overrated

lol i just wanted to place some bets to make it more fun and realized the bet for meunier was still open could only bet 30$ though because of max win limit or something like that
edit: lol ben nguyen too

Damiennnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn "Beat Down" Brownnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn!!!

Camozzi ITD +165. No finishes so far tonight but I think it's time for Kelly to plod forward into a million punches and then finally go down to a headkick. I'm doing the Babe Ruth on this one.

LMAO. Dan Kelly continues to amaze.

Daniel Kelly!

Awesome~

As ashamed of doubting the Great Dan Kelly as I am, I must admit, my heart warms for the old man

Ham by decision +120

Ham vs. Taylor is worse than I thought it'd be.

zZzZz

Nice scoring.

Ham clearly won R1. I didn't really watch R2 that much, and Taylor clearly won R3.

Crazy that Taylor got 30-27 by TWO JUDGES!

NM

Too bad Pedro got the clinch after Rountree dropped him...

----------

Expected win for Volkanovski.

He'll be a beast when he drops down to his natural weight class.

Well, I expected Omari to win, but it seemed like he took it easy on Noke. Possibly cuz they're former teammates at Jackson's MMA.

Brunson let the moment get to him and fought on pure emotion. Props to Whittaker.

That's a good win for Whittaker, but Brunson fought like an IDIOT...

Seriously, wtf was that???

He's the stupidest "high level" Jackson's MMA fighter.

Hes not stupid, just got outskilled. Hes a level or even two below in striking, but athletically superior. Very durable too. Hes still a monster.

On November 27 2016 05:53 Minsk wrote: Hes not stupid, just got outskilled. Hes a level or even two below in striking, but athletically superior. Very durable too. Hes still a monster.

No. You are very, very wrong. He lost his head and bullrushed a counterstriker with his chin on a platter.

Watch his fight vs Yoel Romero to see how he should have fought.

It's literally the one thing he needed to not do. Here is my post from before:

"I'm big on Brunson but the violent KO's have a common theme. When he lunges in with that left (usually twice in a row the way Woodley KO'd Lawler), he leaves his chin on a platter, and someone with a composed/accurate counter shot will likely put his lights out at some point if he keeps doing that.

I could see Rockhold, Belfort (irrelevant but still), and ironically Whittaker being the 3 MW's that are really likely to make him pay in that spot, but I'm still picking Brunson > Whittaker because I think that Jackson has probably pounded into Brunson's head that he can't do his typical beast-blitz right away or hes making a massive mistake.

He just needs to use his athleticism, size, and kicking range to frustrate Whittaker and clinch up as much as possible. Eventually if he works that game without making any mistakes in the pocket, hell get Whittaker down and beat the breaks off him or choke him out.

Thats the only way he can win.

He doesn't have the speed to stand with Whittaker. He either bullrushes and tries to finish or loses. Otherwise it will be worse.

So basically, Brunson and Matthews ruined my night. I'm not sure how much in total they cost me, but I know they cost me over $1000 in profit tonight with their shitty performances.

The good news is, I made a team with Whittaker that was a hedge to my 2 "big" teams with Brunson. I ended up taking 3rd place in that (I split with one other guy, so I won $250 instead of $300).

I guess I shouldn't be mad since I made a lot of profit tonight and two weeks ago on the UFC 205 card, but damn, I was doing so well until the final 2 fights...

On November 27 2016 06:10 Minsk wrote: Thats the only way he can win.

I just explained my opinion of the exact way he could have won. You can disagree but your statement just sounds unconvincing in the face of a complete explanation of a far more reasonable gameplan than "his only chance was sticking his chin in the air and hail-marying his left on a great counterstriker". He was 3 minutes from beating Yoel Romero, he's not drawing dead to Whittaker.

Anyway, Whittaker vs Mousasi may make sense next, and if so, that's unfortunate for Whittaker IMO because I think he stands a better chance vs someone like Jacare who auto grants him a title shot. I think Mousasi is a nightmare matchup for Whitty and he'd have to fight perfect and show improvement to box with Gegard for 5 rounds.

On November 27 2016 05:56 soberstone wrote: Show nested quote + On November 27 2016 05:53 Minsk wrote: Hes not stupid, just got outskilled. Hes a level or even two below in striking, but athletically superior. Very durable too. Hes still a monster. No. You are very, very wrong. He lost his head and bullrushed a counterstriker with his chin on a platter. Watch his fight vs Yoel Romero to see how he should have fought. It's literally the one thing he needed to not do. Here is my post from before: "I'm big on Brunson but the violent KO's have a common theme. When he lunges in with that left (usually twice in a row the way Woodley KO'd Lawler), he leaves his chin on a platter, and someone with a composed/accurate counter shot will likely put his lights out at some point if he keeps doing that. I could see Rockhold, Belfort (irrelevant but still), and ironically Whittaker being the 3 MW's that are really likely to make him pay in that spot, but I'm still picking Brunson > Whittaker because I think that Jackson has probably pounded into Brunson's head that he can't do his typical beast-blitz right away or hes making a massive mistake. He just needs to use his athleticism, size, and kicking range to frustrate Whittaker and clinch up as much as possible. Eventually if he works that game without making any mistakes in the pocket, hell get Whittaker down and beat the breaks off him or choke him out.

kicking range, Lol.

On November 27 2016 16:42 Minsk wrote: Show nested quote + On November 27 2016 05:56 soberstone wrote:   On November 27 2016 05:53 Minsk wrote: Hes not stupid, just got outskilled. Hes a level or even two below in striking, but athletically superior. Very durable too. Hes still a monster. No. You are very, very wrong. He lost his head and bullrushed a counterstriker with his chin on a platter. Watch his fight vs Yoel Romero to see how he should have fought. It's literally the one thing he needed to not do. Here is my post from before: "I'm big on Brunson but the violent KO's have a common theme. When he lunges in with that left (usually twice in a row the way Woodley KO'd Lawler), he leaves his chin on a platter, and someone with a composed/accurate counter shot will likely put his lights out at some point if he keeps doing that. I could see Rockhold, Belfort (irrelevant but still), and ironically Whittaker being the 3 MW's that are really likely to make him pay in that spot, but I'm still picking Brunson > Whittaker because I think that Jackson has probably pounded into Brunson's head that he can't do his typical beast-blitz right away or hes making a massive mistake. He just needs to use his athleticism, size, and kicking range to frustrate Whittaker and clinch up as much as possible. Eventually if he works that game without making any mistakes in the pocket, hell get Whittaker down and beat the breaks off him or choke him out. kicking range, Lol.

yah, brunson has a nice kicking game and is much longer than whittaker, it would have been a good idea to employ some kicks at range to manage distance and keep whittaker thinking. you are a real gem. be sure to provide insight on upcoming fights so I can tail your god-like logic and become a millionaire.