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UFC on FOX 21: Maia vs. Condit

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PuertoRican   United States. Aug 22 2016 04:46. Posts 13030

Date: Saturday, August 27th
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass): 22:00 LP.net / 2pm PST / 5pm EST
Preliminary Card (FOX): 23:00 LP.net / 3pm PST / 6pm EST
Main Card (FOX): 1:00 LP.net / 5pm PST / 8pm EST
Live Streams: http://firstrowus1.eu/




Main Card (FOX)

Demian Maia (23-6) vs. Carlos Condit (30-9) (Welterweight)
Anthony Pettis (18-5) vs. Charles Oliveira (21-5) (Featherweight)
Paige VanZant (6-2) vs. Bec Rawlings (7-4) (Women's Strawweight)
Joe Lauzon (26-11) vs. Jim Miller (26-8) (Lightweight)

Preliminary Card (FOX)

Sam Alvey (27-8) vs. Kevin Casey (9-4-1) (Middleweight)
Enrique Barzola (11-2-1) vs. Kyle Bochniak (6-1) (Featherweight)
Garreth McLellan (13-4) vs. Alessio Di Chirico (9-1) (Middleweight)
Shane Campbell (12-5) vs. Felipe Silva (7-0) (Lightweight)

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Chad Laprise (10-2) vs. Thibault Gouti (11-2) (Lightweight)
Alex Ricci (10-3) vs. Jeremy Kennedy (8-0) (Lightweight)

Other

- Josh Emmett was expected to face promotional newcomer Jeremy Kennedy at the event. However, Emmett pulled out of the fight on August 19 with an undisclosed injury. UFC promotional newcomer Alex Ricci replaces Emmett against Jeremy Kennedy.
- The Ultimate Fighter: China winner Ning Guangyou was expected to face Marlon Vera at UFC 202. However, due to an out-of-competition failed test and following investigation concluding Guangyou ingested the substance without fault or negligence, the bout was moved to this event. In turn, the bout was postponed again due to alleged visa issues for Guangyou, which restricted the timing of his travel.
- Chad Laprise missed weight, coming in at 159 lbs. As a result, he was fined 20% of his fight purse, which will go to his opponent Thibault Gouti. The fight will proceed as scheduled.

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Rekrul is a newbLast edit: 27/08/2016 02:54

PuertoRican   United States. Aug 22 2016 04:49. Posts 13030



----------

First impression of the match-ups:

• Maia > Condit
• Oliveira > Pettis
• PVZ > Rawlings
• Miller vs. Lauzon (dunno)
• Alvey > Casey
• Kenny vs. Ricci (dunno)
• Bochniak > Barzola
• Campbell > Silva
• Laprise > Gouti
• Chirico > McLellan
• Vera > Ning
• Janes vs. Hunter (dunno)

Rekrul is a newbLast edit: 23/08/2016 01:56

traxamillion   United States. Aug 22 2016 18:47. Posts 10468

Like ur picks, not sure about the maia fight that one is so tough for me. I guess that is reflected in the dead even odds. I feel like one guy prob has a decent edge though just not sure who. Rly depends if maia is able to do his thing vs condit.

I also thick pettis will win but that is probably biased


alejandicto   . Aug 22 2016 20:37. Posts 865

mmmmm tough to call I think Condit can TKO Maia cause is a 5 round fight.

Oliveira is good but I think Pettis got this. Miller vs Lauzon will be FOTN for sure.

Rooting for Barzola :D


Floofy   Canada. Aug 22 2016 21:04. Posts 8708


  On August 22 2016 17:47 traxamillion wrote:
Like ur picks, not sure about the maia fight that one is so tough for me. I guess that is reflected in the dead even odds. I feel like one guy prob has a decent edge though just not sure who. Rly depends if maia is able to do his thing vs condit.

I also thick pettis will win but that is probably biased



If that was 3 rounds i would be all over maia. I am pretty sure round 1 will go maia's way. But i also think condit can survive.

By round 3, maia will slow down and condit can probably take over, and maybe even get a finish.


I'm probably betting condit due to this being a 5 rounds fight.

james9994: make note dont play against floofy, ;(Last edit: 22/08/2016 21:04

PuertoRican   United States. Aug 22 2016 22:04. Posts 13030

Maia vs. Condit: I like this fight to go o3.5 rounds @ -130 (the line was originally at -160).

1. While it's a 5-round fight, Maia has shown good cardio when he's able to secure take downs on the first attempt and when his opponent doesn't put up much of a struggle.

2. Condit has always been easy to take down, mostly cuz his height and he just sucks against elite TD artists.

3. Percent and consistency wise, Maia has the best TDs at welterweight (correct me if I'm wrong). Taking down Condit in the first 2 rounds will be easy.

4. Condit has good BJJ, and I don't think he'll get submitted.

5. What worries me as a Condit backer is how well he'll be able to defend the take downs after the first 10 minutes. Let's say that Maia slows down after the first 2 rounds, and Condit starts looking better on the feet. Condit can EASILY get taken down in Round 4 or 5 and lose a decision. People thinking Condit will just automatically TKO Maia after he starts to slow down are wrong, as Maia is so good at clinching and stalling action, and Condit has always needed distance to be an effective striker.

----------

Pettis vs. Oliveira: no lines are out yet as of me posting this on Monday @ 1:55pm PST.

1. Pettis is dropping to 145 for the first time. He MIGHT deal with a bad weight cut in his first drop to a lower weight class, and he MIGHT not be fully adjusted to the faster fighters at 145 like Frankie Edgar wasn't against Aldo (Pettis had problems with the faster + aggro fighters at 155, so it'd make sense if he had the same problems at 145 where guys are faster in general than 155`ers).

2. Pettis is on a 3-fight losing streak. 2 fights were against wrestlers who wouldn't give him space and kept taking him down, and one fight was against a rangy aggressive striker who WOULD NOT fight at Pettis' slow pace and kept moving.

3. Oliveira is the same height as Pettis, and also has a 2-inch reach advantage.

4. While we know Pettis has good BJJ, Oliveira has MUCH better BJJ and is more active with it. Say what you want about Myles Jury and Hatsu Hioki, but Oliveira gave both of them their first BJJ losses, and both of those guys were known to have good defensive BJJ in MMA: Jury with 1 sub loss is 17 fights, and Hioki with 1 sub loss in 39 fights.

5. While Pettis is known for his striking, he's a low to medium volume striker who isn't good at fighting at a high pace, and is facing a guy with above average movement who also fights at a distance.

I mean, I guess Pettis is the rightful favorite for what he has done at 155 pounds, but imo, you're a sucker if you pay over 2-1 for him in this spot. There's too many unknowns for him in this fight.

Rekrul is a newb 

PuertoRican   United States. Aug 23 2016 01:56. Posts 13030

Alright, I changed my mind on the Maia/Condit fight. I'm switching to Maia. I'll do further research on Thursday or Friday.

Rekrul is a newb 

PuertoRican   United States. Aug 23 2016 03:58. Posts 13030

Hometown Fighters (Vancouver, British Columbia, CANADA)*
• Chad Laprise
• Shane Campbell
• Jeremy Kennedy
• Ryan Janes
• Adam Hunter

UFC Debut
• Jeremy Kennedy (Lightweight)
• Alex Ricci (Lightweight)
• Felipe Silva (Lightweight)
• Adam Hunter (Middleweight)
• Ryan Janes (Middleweight)

Late Replacements
• Alex Riccci filling in for Josh Emmett vs Jeremy Kennedy (8 Days)

Fighters on Losing Streaks
• Anthony Pettis - 3
• Chad Laprise - 2
• Thibault Gouti - 2
• Shane Campbell - 2

Long Layoff
• Charles Oliveira (9 Months)
• Paige Vanzant (9 Months - Was competing in Dancing with the Stars)
• Enrique Barzola (10 Months)
• Ryan Janes (14 Months - Had difficulty scheduling fights, works full time in web development)

New Weight Class
• Anthony Pettis (Lightweight to Featherweight)
• Jeremy Kennedy (Featherweight to Lightweight)
• Enrique Barzola (Lightweight to Featherweight)


Size Disparities

Height
• Sam Alvey 3 inches taller (Sam Alvey vs. Kevin Casey)
• Marlon Vera 3 inches taller (Ning Guangyou vs. Marlon Vera)

Reach
• Carlos Condit 3 inch reach advantage (#4 Demian Maia vs. #5 Carlos Condit)
• Alessio Di Chirico 3 inch reach advantage (Garreth McLellan vs. Alessio DiChirico)
• Marlon Vera 6 inch reach advantage (Ning Guangyou vs. Marlon Vera)

*Considering all Canadian fighters Hometown Fighters for this card. Following fighters fighting out of British Columbia: Shane Campbell, Jeremy Kennedy and Ryan Janes

Rekrul is a newb 

iakim322   United States. Aug 23 2016 04:32. Posts 1335


  On August 22 2016 17:47 traxamillion wrote:
Rly depends if maia is able to do his thing




That's like the crux of every single Maia fight. Would be cool to see Condit smoothly move laterally to dodge a clinch/takedown attempt from Maia and uncork a heavy headkick like his moment vs GSP. Because I think Condit retires if he loses this and I enjoy watching him. But I think Maia's probably gonna Maia just enough in the majority of 3-4 rounds to win a decision while surviving a couple dangerous moments

Pettis's career is nuts. First fighter to get on such a mainstream thing like the Wheaties box while looking like a champion at 155 who could have some longevity if he had better injury luck. Then hasn't been able to buy a win since to the point that he has to move down in weight 3 fights removed from looking so good as champion in a higher weight class. Go Pettis. You can't go out like this


PuertoRican   United States. Aug 23 2016 05:47. Posts 13030





Rekrul is a newbLast edit: 25/08/2016 04:11

soberstone   United States. Aug 23 2016 06:16. Posts 2662

Oliveria is a very good match up for Pettis - A slowish plodding guy with horrible durability, extremely hittable and poor offensive wrestling in space.

Would it surprise me if Pettis let Oliveria get a takedown from the clinch and grind him out / find the submission? No. Should it happen? Absolutely not, there's no excuse given Pettis's athleticism and skill-set. Pettis should finish Oliveria in spectacular fashion after picking him apart for a round or two.

As for Maia vs Condit, toss-up but I lean Condit.


alejandicto   . Aug 23 2016 15:05. Posts 865

Odds:

 Last edit: 23/08/2016 15:24

alejandicto   . Aug 23 2016 15:27. Posts 865

I dont know if I am going to bet something in this card, very difficult for me to find value in these fights : (


Floofy   Canada. Aug 23 2016 16:34. Posts 8708


  On August 23 2016 04:47 PuertoRican wrote:







Holy shit i have to watch this stuff

james9994: make note dont play against floofy, ;( 

PuertoRican   United States. Aug 23 2016 18:51. Posts 13030

Ning Guangyou was forced out of his fight against Marlon Vera due to visa issues. Their fight will be rescheduled for a later date.

This card will go on with 11 fights instead of 12.

Rekrul is a newb 

PuertoRican   United States. Aug 23 2016 21:50. Posts 13030



Rekrul is a newb 

lucky331   . Aug 24 2016 01:24. Posts 1124


  On August 23 2016 14:05 alejandicto wrote:
Odds:




waht website is this?


PuertoRican   United States. Aug 24 2016 02:22. Posts 13030


  On August 24 2016 00:24 lucky331 wrote:
Show nested quote +



waht website is this?

https://bestfightodds.com/

You can change the money line format in the top right area of the website.

Rekrul is a newb 

alejandicto   . Aug 24 2016 05:47. Posts 865

My mistake, I like decimal format:


northsails   Bulgaria. Aug 24 2016 14:49. Posts 410

Remember that time when Pettis closed as -750 favorite over RDA. LOL, talk about a hype job this guy is the closest thing we have seen to Ronda.

Since then Pettis looks lost to me. He got himself a new wresting coach for the Alvarez fight and lost it. Then he changed camps and got outclassed by Barboza. Now he is dropping a weight class... , what is next?

Having said that Oliveira is the perfect match up for him to shine again. Other than his insane bjj, he has nothing for Pettis. His footwork is far from stellar, his striking is slow and not very fluid, he is easily hittable and not the most durable guy. If he losses that fight, He might as well retire.

Also I think Bec Rawling has some value. Her line should get even better by fight night.


 
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