On June 28 2016 05:40 Baalim wrote:
I dont know if leaving the EU is good or bad, I think its a very complex subject economically I think for having a proper opinion I would need to know all the regulations and how they specifically affect the market, how the UK economy behaved post 1993 etc.
I agree.
I believe this is an insanely complex issue with so many variables. And I'd imagine even the most knowledgeable and qualified people can only operate on some wide margin probabilities in most issues. That is what makes this referendum so crazy to me.
Whether someone was 'for' or 'against' it's really worth acknowledging that whatever you picked is better in some areas (can be jobs, groups of people, national security or even in terms of intangible values you hold dear), but it is certainly worse in some others. That's why it is worth to try to be very precise in what ways this might improve or worsen something.
Peace of mind cant be bought.
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KeyleK_uk United Kingdom. Jul 01 2016 13:01. Posts 1687
On June 28 2016 06:19 Spitfiree wrote:
The EU will make an example of them and the UK most likely won't even exist by the time they are done with them. Even the prime endorser of the BRexit campaign is holding off. Boris Johnson wants to slow the process as much as possible and get negotiations faster. That won't happen. No one will give them a safe exit as they expected. Good luck changing your whole legislation and economic agreements with the whole continent in just 2.5 years.
Can't believe that there are people actually believing the immigration argument here. Amazing.
On June 27 2016 08:12 Quest2Know wrote:
The UK isn't obligated to accept "refugees" via imposed quotas like other EU nations because it isn't a member of the Schengen agreement. The UK is however bound to comply with free movement. Freedom of movement grants other EU citizens an automatic right to live in the UK even if they've murdered someone. Being unable to choose the quality of your citizens is a problem.
There have been talks of Brussels threatening to stop Briton from sending back asylum seekers who have already lodged claims else where in Europe if Briton refused to join the quota scheme.
The EU has also considering fining nations $287,000 or €250,000 for each Asylum seeker they refuse. (Not applicable to the UK, Ireland or Denmark.) This goes to further illustrate the kind of anti-democratic tyranny the EU has become and even more reason for EU nations to regain their sovereignty whether they are in the Schengen area or not.
First no, the UK isnt obliged to take refugees quota, but considering they are a part of a union and even a country like mine which also isnt a part of Schengen agrees to accept refugees and a world top economy cant accept 15,000 people, around which was their quota, then they are fucking twats.
Second, what you are implying is that the UK has no prevention methods towards people coming inside the country, which is a joke. And no what do you mean, they have to let someone in, even if they are a murderer? Pretty sure they d be in jail. Quality of life of citizens's main problem sure as hell isn't coming from migrants .
Third, the 250k euro fine proposal was obviously done by a braindead commission and would never have passed, sadly every government has laughable people in it. The free travel visa for turks would also never pass, those are just part of the terms of the agreement with Erdogan, which the EU actually needs to make look like is going to happen for as long as possible, considering Erdogan can flood the whole continent with refugees with the wave of a finger.
Hi Spitfree, I'm from the UK and disagree with alot of what you said, I'm not saying the other people are right but you are wrong imo on key issues, heres two examples.
Compare the FTSE 100 to DAX 30 and CAC 40, notice how the latter two haven't recovered more than half the way to where they were and the ftse is 3% up on pre-brexit when people thought it was quite like a remain vote would occur. What I am trying to say is the EU(or the German and French industries) can't afford to make an example of the UK, and that is reflected in the stock market. Yes sterling still took a beating, but a large amount of that will be because people thought the remain result had occurred and everyone in the financial sector 'bet' on it being remain and they were wrong. We'll see because neither of us can be as sure as you think you are about this outcome but I doubt they can afford to make an example of us.
My second example is Scotland leaving: I really don't believe it will happen. I know Scottish people who want independence but the reality of it is so much more insane than the ideal, especially since the last referendum in Scotland. When the Scottish National Party campaigned for independence in the last referendum they were campaigning on their economy being based upon the oil in the North Sea and staying in the pound, probably. Well, I think it'll be fair to say it will be difficult for them to keep the pound if they left the UK now and I think oil is less than 40% the price of what it was at their previous referendum. Also theoretically England has claims to some % of that oil, it's in English waters so that'll be another argument bought up if it occurs (which it wont). Also the turnout in the referndum was i think about 69 in scotland vs i think 84 in the independencereferendum so it is likely more of those people would vote to stay in the UK than leave (closer to the status quo) so the referendum in Scotland was 63% stay (EU) 37% leave, it just takes 1/4 of the people who voted to stay in the EU to stay in the UK and there is likely a larger turnout of people voting remain. THEREFORE I believe when Nicola Sturgeon (leader of SNP) realises she wont win a referendum she will shut up and never call one.
Germany doesn't want to run this show by itself and the people of Europe don't want Germany to run this show by themselves. The EU and people spouting the nonsense you're shouting is whats pushing people towards the right. The problem is Spitfree if I was in your position I would probably think a long similar lines. The EU is a super state and redistribution of wealth has to occur in a state between the richest and the poorest and in the long run that is good for everyone economic theory tells us. However this model is not accurate because the EU is an undemocratic, over expensive pile of shit. Also the sheer amount spent by corporations lobbying in Brussels is astronomical. The auditors haven't signed off on their books forever. When you're from one of the least (the?) wealthy nations in that bloc the potential downside doesn't worry you so much, however when you are from one of the wealthier nations it does. I am sorry that I still believe in nation states, I'm sure one day they will be obsolete but that day is not today.
I would like to say that I appreciate your interest in this and I would like to discuss it further but I really don't believe that you can come up with many rational arguments that this is bad for the UK unless 1) it breaks up, 2) we get made an 'example' of which to be honest if you guys make an example of us like this I would argue we weren't very good friends any way. Also with our 70 bn trade deficiet with the EU it would hurt the EU more or 3) something happens to the City of London.
You can't base your first argument on the note of indices in a short run in a speculation based period. Let alone compare economies based on that. All of those will be evened out eventually. The real market hit will come when(if ... ) article 50 is submitted.
Obviously no side would benefit by cutting relations, even countries like mine where UK firms out source their IT departments and that alone would be a huge hit on both sides. Sadly politics don't run on theories that are somewhat proven to work, but on many other braindead factors.
Trade deficit's influence post BRexit is unpredictable for someone like me with an information only given by the media, and I'd suggest its the same about you,unless you're working in such sphere. But honestly if you think that the EU won't find another market to replace you with would be naive. Plus its not like the relations post BRexit would be not trading at all. If you were in as good situation as you thought you were then Farage wouldn't be leading an offense in the EU Parliament asking for trading agreements and pointing out Canada and Australia have already reached out to them. Canada and Australia, what a surprise :D
City of London will be indeed damaged. All those financial companies are working on the market expense free, because of the EU membership. How do you think 200+ banks would be affected when that is no longer the case? It wont just affect the UK or the EU , it will affect the world economy.
Prediction of Scotland's next would be hard in the current situation. There will be a freeze of the situation until you get a new PM. Problem with that is the markets will work in a even more uncertain environment.
The EU has a lot of things to change, as i've said they have not implemented any major reform in at least a decade, and they have no right to be as purposeless as they are in the current state of Europe as a continent.
What the UK has done however, is what your nation has always done history wise. Pick up their shit and leave the moment a situation is intimidating and thats what really pisses me off ( that and the fact that again a bunch of people managed to brainwash the masses into believing something utterly retarded - the immigration that is ). There is certainly a way to get the whole structure going without taking radical actions. And yes I do believe in wealth redistribution and so would you and the theory would work if the EU actually worked, which is not the case at the moment. Their whole work flow proccess is sloppy and slow to say the least. And still I do not see how a BRexit would be a positive change for anyone in the future.
One good thing (and you've somewhat hinted to it) that might come out of this is the TTIP failing. Cause otherwise not Brexit nor the EU will matter, the corporations will lock everything up in a very "legal" way.
nah markets are doing fine. 9% down after so much fear being peddled out there is fucking peanuts. globally greed has taken over
in before markets going to collapse soon lol pussies
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traxamillion United States. Jul 03 2016 05:45. Posts 10468
On June 24 2016 20:31 DooMeR wrote:
Can the people who are happy about this result explain why they are? I can only see this as a bad thing from the little I know.
Very simple.
#1 Most important - Britain can now close their borders and stem the tide of refugees which they would have had to accept as a matter of EU policy
#2 Britains economy now not run by Bureaucratic regulators out of Brussel
The main counterpoints
1. Somehow wanting closed borders is Xenophobic (retarded)
2. The economic counterpoint is that Britain's economy benefits from the interdependent economy of a larger, more dynamic European Super-Economy which would be true if the EU weren't filled with Socialist Welfare States like Greece and France that countries like Britain and Germany are subsidizing.
traxamillion United States. Jul 03 2016 09:21. Posts 10468
On June 28 2016 21:59 Mortensen8 wrote:
Rofl is this real? Farage is hilarious and this clip just shows the decadence and degradation of what was arguable a decent ideal. (how did that hot 20something a couple rows behind farage get that job btw?) Moving towards the EU in the first place was likely a mistake. Huge super national government only works if people become less divided on a much more personal scale. Just making a huge sprawling monster of a gov is not the way to create the GTO ratio of cooperation and competition a society needs. I would imagine future global govs would be quite minimalist and likely decentralized. Hopefully this can happen in a more enlightened, cooperative, "spiritual" future. As is there will be those who vastly outcompete massive groups of other people leading to intirinsic societal instability.
The same reasons we need government in the first place right now are the why they become untenable after a certain size or after an ascension of the wrong people.
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KeyleK_uk United Kingdom. Jul 03 2016 14:12. Posts 1687
On July 01 2016 23:11 Spitfiree wrote:
You can't base your first argument on the note of indices in a short run in a speculation based period. Let alone compare economies based on that. All of those will be evened out eventually. The real market hit will come when(if ... ) article 50 is submitted.
Obviously no side would benefit by cutting relations, even countries like mine where UK firms out source their IT departments and that alone would be a huge hit on both sides. Sadly politics don't run on theories that are somewhat proven to work, but on many other braindead factors.
Trade deficit's influence post BRexit is unpredictable for someone like me with an information only given by the media, and I'd suggest its the same about you,unless you're working in such sphere. But honestly if you think that the EU won't find another market to replace you with would be naive. Plus its not like the relations post BRexit would be not trading at all. If you were in as good situation as you thought you were then Farage wouldn't be leading an offense in the EU Parliament asking for trading agreements and pointing out Canada and Australia have already reached out to them. Canada and Australia, what a surprise :D
City of London will be indeed damaged. All those financial companies are working on the market expense free, because of the EU membership. How do you think 200+ banks would be affected when that is no longer the case? It wont just affect the UK or the EU , it will affect the world economy.
Prediction of Scotland's next would be hard in the current situation. There will be a freeze of the situation until you get a new PM. Problem with that is the markets will work in a even more uncertain environment.
The EU has a lot of things to change, as i've said they have not implemented any major reform in at least a decade, and they have no right to be as purposeless as they are in the current state of Europe as a continent.
What the UK has done however, is what your nation has always done history wise. Pick up their shit and leave the moment a situation is intimidating and thats what really pisses me off ( that and the fact that again a bunch of people managed to brainwash the masses into believing something utterly retarded - the immigration that is ). There is certainly a way to get the whole structure going without taking radical actions. And yes I do believe in wealth redistribution and so would you and the theory would work if the EU actually worked, which is not the case at the moment. Their whole work flow proccess is sloppy and slow to say the least. And still I do not see how a BRexit would be a positive change for anyone in the future.
One good thing (and you've somewhat hinted to it) that might come out of this is the TTIP failing. Cause otherwise not Brexit nor the EU will matter, the corporations will lock everything up in a very "legal" way.
Thank you for your reply Spitfree, I can't disagree with very much of it at all. Pretty much what you said in your last paragraph, redistribution of wealth theory I believe in it too. I just really struggled to believe the way the EU was going it would ever get any better.
The only thing I would like to say is if this speculation period actually looked bad for the ftse (100 at least) it would be brought up as an example of how this is so bad as speculation is saying...
and in relation to Scotland the media outlets are disagreeing heavily on what is going on but for a number of reasons my instincts are that another referendum wont happen, and if it did I don't think they would vote to leave the UK. http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-36693048 bbc and the Scottish Herald kind of contradict one another here (basically read in isolation you wouldn't think either of the other could exist) http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/14...__could_be_a_Greece_without_the_sun_/
basically as you said it's a complete mess and perhaps your guess is as good as mine about how things will continue from here.
He and Boris were leading the brexit campaign.
Not saying brexit is good/bad itself but what is very bad is: no plan at all to manage this brexit (short or mid/long term).
Now they are all standing down because don't want to deal with the current mess.
You might enjoy Dan Carlin's point of view in his common sense #307, where he suggests brexit resulted from working class dissatisfaction with the political system in general rather than simply being an immigration issue. He points out that wealthy people, condescendingly reducing the issue to racism, might have fueled the anger and made people vote for whatever rich people disagreed with.
I have a genuine question about that. Isn't a really large % of the working class in the UK made of actual immigrants? If that is so, that would be even a bigger defender to his point of view, regarding of the first impression my question leaves.
^^ because they want to keep their jobs. just like in mexico you'd think everybody who's a legal immigrant is against trump but you'd be surprised how many support the idea to keep illegals out just so that their jobs would not be in jeopardy, again people always assume a lot of things and think legal immigrants and illegals are lumped together and think as one whole.
btw, im not for trump and think he is retarded as well, im also not a "racist" who thinks all muslims are terrorists. but yeah since that would be the automatic prejudice against anybody who leans towards opposing liberal views nowadays, I try to exaggerate my position for entertainment purposes
On July 07 2016 21:56 Spitfiree wrote:
I have a genuine question about that. Isn't a really large % of the working class in the UK made of actual immigrants? If that is so, that would be even a bigger defender to his point of view, regarding of the first impression my question leaves.
Basically he found a loophole and is technically able to apply for leader of UKIP (Party who led the "leave" campaign)
Reasons he listed as to why he would be the perfect fit for leading UKIP:
‘Loss of income due to Romanians’- referring to a fellow poker player who beat him in the past; ‘knowledge of the immigration system’- because of his half Lithuanian, half Australian descent; and my own personal favourite ‘Leaving after I have won’- a mantra that many Brexiteers have lived by in the aftermath of the EU referendum.
On July 08 2016 01:15 whamm! wrote:
^^ because they want to keep their jobs. just like in mexico you'd think everybody who's a legal immigrant is against trump but you'd be surprised how many support the idea to keep illegals out just so that their jobs would not be in jeopardy, again people always assume a lot of things and think legal immigrants and illegals are lumped together and think as one whole.
btw, im not for trump and think he is retarded as well, im also not a "racist" who thinks all muslims are terrorists. but yeah since that would be the automatic prejudice against anybody who leans towards opposing liberal views nowadays, I try to exaggerate my position for entertainment purposes
I wish one of your guys had children if I could kick them in the fucking head or stomp on their testicles so you can feel my pain because thats the pain I have waking up everyday -- Mike Tyson
well that's human nature, where jobs are scarce people get selfish. automation, globallization and the global inequity of wealth contributes to this more and more each day. people need to develop skills to keep up problem is they have no clue how, in the next 10 years with internet-of-things going full blast jobs will be very hard to come by.
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Santafairy Korea (South). Jul 08 2016 18:01. Posts 2225
On July 08 2016 01:15 whamm! wrote:
^^ because they want to keep their jobs. just like in mexico you'd think everybody who's a legal immigrant is against trump but you'd be surprised how many support the idea to keep illegals out just so that their jobs would not be in jeopardy, again people always assume a lot of things and think legal immigrants and illegals are lumped together and think as one whole.
btw, im not for trump and think he is retarded as well, im also not a "racist" who thinks all muslims are terrorists. but yeah since that would be the automatic prejudice against anybody who leans towards opposing liberal views nowadays, I try to exaggerate my position for entertainment purposes
if immigrants aren't taking jobs it's because they're unemployed sitting around collecting welfare and peddling drugs and trafficking people
It seems to be not very profitable in the long run to play those kind of hands. - Gus Hansen
On July 07 2016 21:56 Spitfiree wrote:
I have a genuine question about that. Isn't a really large % of the working class in the UK made of actual immigrants? If that is so, that would be even a bigger defender to his point of view, regarding of the first impression my question leaves.
On July 08 2016 01:15 whamm! wrote:
^^ because they want to keep their jobs. just like in mexico you'd think everybody who's a legal immigrant is against trump but you'd be surprised how many support the idea to keep illegals out just so that their jobs would not be in jeopardy, again people always assume a lot of things and think legal immigrants and illegals are lumped together and think as one whole.
btw, im not for trump and think he is retarded as well, im also not a "racist" who thinks all muslims are terrorists. but yeah since that would be the automatic prejudice against anybody who leans towards opposing liberal views nowadays, I try to exaggerate my position for entertainment purposes
if immigrants aren't taking jobs it's because they're unemployed sitting around collecting welfare and peddling drugs and trafficking people
You forgot the murder rapists
I wish one of your guys had children if I could kick them in the fucking head or stomp on their testicles so you can feel my pain because thats the pain I have waking up everyday -- Mike Tyson
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Santafairy Korea (South). Jul 08 2016 19:16. Posts 2225
On July 08 2016 01:15 whamm! wrote:
^^ because they want to keep their jobs. just like in mexico you'd think everybody who's a legal immigrant is against trump but you'd be surprised how many support the idea to keep illegals out just so that their jobs would not be in jeopardy, again people always assume a lot of things and think legal immigrants and illegals are lumped together and think as one whole.
btw, im not for trump and think he is retarded as well, im also not a "racist" who thinks all muslims are terrorists. but yeah since that would be the automatic prejudice against anybody who leans towards opposing liberal views nowadays, I try to exaggerate my position for entertainment purposes
if immigrants aren't taking jobs it's because they're unemployed sitting around collecting welfare and peddling drugs and trafficking people
You forgot the murder rapists
It seems to be not very profitable in the long run to play those kind of hands. - Gus Hansen
Poland. Jun 28 2016 23:55. Posts 1982
