- It was revealed on January 13, that this event was actually expected to feature a UFC Heavyweight Championship rematch between current champion Fabricio Werdum and former champion Cain Velasquez at Arena da Baixada in Curitiba, Brazil. However, due to a series of injuries, the promotion had to move the heavyweight bout to the original UFC 196, so they decided to move the Brazilian card to Rio de Janeiro. The UFC then considered booking a rematch between former UFC Middleweight Champion Anderson Silva and former UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Vitor Belfort as main event. Belfort declined the bout as he decided to wait the result of the middleweight title fight at UFC 194. That prompted the cancellation of the event and relocation to Las Vegas. On January 27, due to the Werdum-Velasquez bout being cancelled, UFC 196 as it was known became a Fight Night card and this event originally known as UFC 197 was re-numbered as UFC 196.
- The event was expected to be headlined by a UFC Lightweight Championship bout between current champion Rafael dos Anjos and current UFC Featherweight Champion Conor McGregor. This would have been the second time in UFC history that current champions in different divisions would fight for a title. The first time was at UFC 94 on January 31, 2009, when then-UFC Welterweight Champion Georges St-Pierre defended his title against then-lightweight champion B.J. Penn. On February 23, the planned bout suffered a setback as it was announced that Dos Anjos pulled out due to a broken foot. Former featherweight champion Jose Aldo declined the initial opportunity to replace him due to "lack of time" to prepare for the bout.[9] In addition, former lightweight champion and current top contender at featherweight Frankie Edgar also declined the opportunity due to a groin injury. Eventually, The Ultimate Fighter 5 winner and former lightweight title challenger Nate Diaz was announced as the replacement and the bout will take place in the welterweight division.
- A UFC Women's Bantamweight Championship bout between current champion Holly Holm and former Strikeforce Women's Bantamweight Champion Miesha Tate is expected to co-headline the event.
- Michael Johnson was expected to face Tony Ferguson in a lightweight rematch. However on January 27, it was announced that Johnson withdrew from the bout due to injury. Ferguson is now expected to fight at UFC on Fox: Nurmagomedov vs. Ferguson on April 16 against Khabib Nurmagomedov.
- A welterweight bout between Brandon Thatch and Siyar Bahadurzada, originally slated for UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Cowboy was rescheduled to this event due to Thatch's inability to gain clearance for needed medication.
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PuertoRican United States. Feb 28 2016 07:39. Posts 13044
Tate has a pretty decent chance at winning, hopefully not I want Holly to kick Rondas ass again soon
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goose58 United States. Feb 28 2016 12:29. Posts 871
McGregor is a lock in this fight vs Nate, winning 95%~ of the time
Holly is a lock against Tate too, absolutely. Winning 90-95%~ imo
Both Tate's and Nate's standup is far inferior than their respective opponents. They will get dismantled. Both will be looking for the takedown (Nate's gonna feel more pressure to bang, only reason he got this fight imo). I doubt either will go the distance. These are just softball type fights, easy home run hits for the champs until their big fights come (RDA and Rousey).
If Holm has the same control like she did vs Rousey it would be a slam dunk. However I think Tate has much more outs than Rousey in this match up, might be biased due to the impression from Rousey vs Holm match. She did destroy her completely
Last edit: 28/02/2016 19:25
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soberstone United States. Feb 28 2016 20:48. Posts 2662
McGregor > Diaz (Yay for this fight)
Holm > Tate - I think this will be an epic fight that ultimately won't be super close on the cards but one where both fighters show immense heart and mental toughness.
Villante > Latifi
Anderson > Lawlor - Lock of the card besides McGregor. Anderson is the best 205 lb prospect the UFC has (not saying much) and I think they know it.
Nunes > Schevchenko - Interesting to me that they made this fight. I love it but I'm sad one of these 2 has to lose since I think they are both insanely talented striker and awesome athletes. To me, Nunes is further along and might be the best 135 chick on the planet right now.
Thatch > Siyar - Via rape if Siyar doesn't land one of his stupid bombs in the first 2 minutes.
Silva v Taleb - Pickem - Erik Silva is explosive and dynamic but is ultimately a shit fighter outside of small moments and is worst case of "being off the juice" we've seen. Taleb is tough and well-rounded, which makes Silva's land a huge shot and find the finish strategy less likely to work.
Miranda v Guinmaraes - Dunno
Elkins > Skelly - Similar fighters, I'll take the savvy vet to outpoint and be one step ahead of Skelly for most of the fight. The over seems inevitable.
Sanchez > Miller - Just have a feeling he takes a split where Miller did more damage but Sanchez was more active and has the biggest "oh shit" moments
Salas > Saggo
Ishihara v Erosa - Dunno
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Stim_Abuser United States. Feb 28 2016 22:41. Posts 7499
I feel like people are sleeping on Diaz. Conor is going from fighting guys that are like 5'7'' on average with like 6-8 inches of reach on them, to a guy who's 6'' and has the reach advantage.
Yes Conor is the much better fighter, because Nate has big weaknesses in his game. But Conor isn't really that good in the things Nate is weak in, like leg kicks and offensive grappling.
Conors strategy has always been to slowly stalk/pressure guys, kind of like nate, keep them at the end of his punches and kicks, and then counter them when they over extend trying to make up the distance. He can't really do that against Nate, due to the reach advantage. So he's probably going to have to adapt a new strategy
What do you guys think Conors strategy is going to be? Lots of kicks from the outside, and use movement to get in, hit diaz, and jump back out of range?
Conor's main weapon is boxing, and while Diaz has a ton of weaknesses, when people try to box with him he usually does really well.
Not saying he'll win btw, Conor should be the favorite based off just being so much faster, athletic, with great technique. I'm just trying curious how you guys think Conor will dominate.
Hey Im slinging mad volume and fat stackin benjies I dont got time for spellin n shit - skinny pete
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PuertoRican United States. Feb 29 2016 00:05. Posts 13044
On February 28 2016 21:41 Stim_Abuser wrote:
I feel like people are sleeping on Diaz. Conor is going from fighting guys that are like 5'7'' on average with like 6-8 inches of reach on them, to a guy who's 6'' and has the reach advantage.
Yes Conor is the much better fighter, because Nate has big weaknesses in his game. But Conor isn't really that good in the things Nate is weak in, like leg kicks and offensive grappling.
Conors strategy has always been to slowly stalk/pressure guys, kind of like nate, keep them at the end of his punches and kicks, and then counter them when they over extend trying to make up the distance. He can't really do that against Nate, due to the reach advantage. So he's probably going to have to adapt a new strategy
What do you guys think Conors strategy is going to be? Lots of kicks from the outside, and use movement to get in, hit diaz, and jump back out of range?
Conor's main weapon is boxing, and while Diaz has a ton of weaknesses, when people try to box with him he usually does really well.
Not saying he'll win btw, Conor should be the favorite based off just being so much faster, athletic, with great technique. I'm just trying curious how you guys think Conor will dominate.
Conor predicts a 1st round finish, I think late in round 1 if I remember correctly. I think this fight will go to at least the 3rd round.
What I'm worried about is Nate's cardio, since he took the fight on 10 days notice, and will have like 6-7 days of full sparring, assuming that he is doing the normal media obligations and stops full-sparring a day or two before the fight like many top fighters do. If he has cardio for 5 rounds, that's a plus on his side, but I don't think he'll win.
Nate's boxing is good, but overrated. He's dangerous when you stand in front of him so he can hit you, and since he rarely kicks (I say rarely because he recently started adding in soft low kicks instead of no kicks at all), Conor is facing a bigger + slower + boxer with no threat of the take down and has terrible footwork and is only known for having a sick-good chin because his face is a punching bag and has absorbed a lot of punishment over the years (punch stats listed below):
How many strikes Nate Diaz has absorbed in his last 5 fights:
• Michael Johnson (103 strikes) vs. Nate (153 strikes) = decision win for Nate
• Rafael dos Anjos (77 strikes) vs. Nate (13 strikes) = decision loss for Nate
• Gray Maynard (5 strikes) vs. Nate (33 strikes) = TKO win for Nate
• Josh Thomson (36 strikes) vs. Nate (21 strikes) = head-kick TKO loss for Nate
• Benson Henderson (124 strikes) vs. Nate (30 strikes) = decision loss for Nate
None of Nate's last 5 opponents have the power and precision that Conor does, and Nate didn't fight any of those guys on short notice.
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Stim_Abuser United States. Feb 29 2016 00:37. Posts 7499
All those guys used a strategy though to exploit Nates weaknesses. They all kicked the shit out of his legs, and took him down and beat him up. Haven't seen Conor really show the tools to do that to Nate yet.
IIRC Conor doesn't really use a ton of lateral movement, which is good for getting away from pressure guys like Nate. He usually just slowly stalks guys moving in straight lines front or back. Sometimes he uses a little lateral movement, but nothing like Thompson did where he was basically running away from Nate and leg kicking him and head kicking him.
Hey Im slinging mad volume and fat stackin benjies I dont got time for spellin n shit - skinny pete
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Stim_Abuser United States. Feb 29 2016 00:55. Posts 7499
I do think for sure Conor will be able to hit him with the left, I just think Diaz will be able to land a bunch of his own punches as well. Will be interesting what happens if the left doesn't destroy Diaz like it has others.
Hey Im slinging mad volume and fat stackin benjies I dont got time for spellin n shit - skinny pete
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Stim_Abuser United States. Feb 29 2016 01:05. Posts 7499
I should probably give Conor a lot of credit for being able to adjust really well with things we haven't see him do ( fight a fighter with a reach advantage. ) simply because he is such a cerebral fighter
Knowing Mendes didn't have much of a camp, so Conor attacked the body all night. Pretty slick.
Hey Im slinging mad volume and fat stackin benjies I dont got time for spellin n shit - skinny pete
iakim322 United States. Feb 29 2016 09:59. Posts 1335
I think Nate will be able to take the left for at least a little while. Partially because he won't be charging in like Aldo did. Also partially because not cutting to 155 should be helpful for his chin. Doesn't mean he won't take a pretty bad beating somewhere in there in rounds 2-4 though. Conor really hasn't done much of low leg kicking so far but he's so athletic that I'm sure he'd be fine at it if he decided to start using them now. Pretty good time to start since it always seems to work against Nate
Holm >>>> Tate. Don't really see Tate as having more outs than Ronda at all. Tate is so so tough though so maybe she can extend this and catch Holly with something on the ground somehow. Probably just going to catch a worse beating though
Want to say Villante > Latifi but don't think I want to trust Villante's chin against that kind of power. And Villante has been sucked into his opponent's kinda fight before
Diaz s a boxer, but McGregor s counter striking is probably the best? in the UFC atm, would be interesting to see him fight at that weight though. Inb4 McGregor beats RDA then goes for Lawler
He is coming into this fight on a 11 days notice with no training camp behind him against Mcgregor who is going to be in his best shape ever, not having to worry about cutting any weight.
The Diaz bros will always have problems against fighters with good movement, who will not just stay and bang with them and Conor has great movement. Hard to imagine anything else other than a total beatdown, He will eat a lot of kicks from the outside and when they exchange he will get hurt as well.
I don't think he has the power to trouble Mcgregor, either. Only way I think he can win is somehow scrambling with Conor and grabbing some hail mary sub in the process.
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PuertoRican United States. Mar 01 2016 04:48. Posts 13044
Rekrul is a newb
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jvilla777 Australia. Mar 01 2016 07:53. Posts 1348
The recent mcgregor fights he fought people that are shorter ended in a KO, he fought holloway who is taller and went to decision.
Yeah and blah blah with injuries that's why he couldn't score a KO.
I feel the juiciest bet here is the fight going o1.5 rounds.
Just a thought.
longple: ur missing the point! this is an attempt to get away from the bumhuntmentality!
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JonnyCosMo United States. Mar 01 2016 09:08. Posts 7292
On February 28 2016 11:29 goose58 wrote:
McGregor is a lock in this fight vs Nate, winning 95%~ of the time
Holly is a lock against Tate too, absolutely. Winning 90-95%~ imo
Both Tate's and Nate's standup is far inferior than their respective opponents. They will get dismantled. Both will be looking for the takedown (Nate's gonna feel more pressure to bang, only reason he got this fight imo). I doubt either will go the distance. These are just softball type fights, easy home run hits for the champs until their big fights come (RDA and Rousey).
Give me +800 Diaz and I'll bet the house.
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Netherlands. Mar 01 2016 11:30. Posts 7080
